Manly Sea Eagles vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Brookvale Oval
The Bulldogs were convincing winners over the Eels in round two, and the Eels were convincing winners over the Sea Eagles in round one. All things being equal the Bulldogs should win this in a canter. Unfortunately, the maths never quite adds up in the NRL - not the way I try to calculate it anyway (I always forget to carry the Foran). No Foran again this weekend with Feleti Mateo pulling on the '6' jersey. This move does weaken the Sea Eagles pack and the Bulldogs are one opponent you don't want to face with a weakened pack. When I match these forwards against each other I have the Bulldogs a long way in front, and when I look at the interchange for these sides the gap widens further. But as I said earlier, the maths never quite adds up so this could go either way on the night. Take note I am 0 from 4 in games involving these sides in season 2015, and my Friday night form is much the same.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 4
Result - Bulldogs 16 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos scored two of the nuffiest tries I've ever seen in their dour victory over the Sharks - but a try is a try whether it's nuffy or not, and it was two more than their opponent. The Cowboys narrow loss to the Knights was particularly disappointing for The Thinker - who was set to have drinks with the team after the match...if they won. The Cowboys were muscled out of that game, but whether the Broncos can do what the Knights did is another matter. The Cowboys pack will be under clear instructions - lay a platform and protect your most valuable resource. The Broncos are nowhere near as big as the Knights, and the Cowboys forwards will step up for the big Queensland derby (no doubt Ben Hannant will put his hand up for a big game too). Both teams look to be struggling in attack to my eye - perhaps this is the game where things start to click but I'm expecting a close low-scoring encounter. Assuming he can open his eyes a Jonathan Thurston conversion will prove the difference.
Verdict – Cowboys by 2
Result - Broncos 44 defeated Cowboys 22
New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium
These are the sort of games the Warriors used to take to Eden Park, but they must be sick of losing. Shaun Johnson is named and let's assume he's playing until we hear otherwise - clearly the equation changes considerably if he's a late withdrawal. The Eels are without Beau Champion and Semi Radradra, and changes to your backline aren't ideal when you're facing the Warriors - a team that are capable of just about anything on their day. Chris Sandow is being monitored, but has been named. More often than not the Warriors turn up to play for their first game of the season at Mt Smart, and tipping them at home is the logical way to go.
Verdict – Warriors by 10
Result - Warriors 29 defeated Eels 16
Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium
In recent seasons the Dragons have struggled to cross the stripe, and the same issue seems to be dogging their 2015 campaign also. Winning games without scoring points is difficult and, I suspect, mathematically impossible. Beyond that, they are on a short turnaround from Monday night and they have to travel to Canberra and beat a team they almost never beat. There are no good things in the NRL (and everytime I suggest there is I get it wrong), but I can't think of any other way to describe this fixture.
Verdict – Raiders by 8
Result - Dragons 22 defeated Raiders 20
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – AAMI Park
If the Sharks can't score a try at home against the Broncos I have to doubt them against the miserly defence of the Storm in Melbourne. Storm coach Craig Bellamy was particularly scathing last weekend (even though I think they were a little unlucky) and the Sharks are set to pay the price. Those keen for a bet could do a lot worse than back the Sharks to score 6 points or less on Saturday night - zero is a likely proposition.
Verdict – Storm by 16
Result - Storm 36 defeated Sharks 18
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Someone loses their first game of the season on Sunday afternoon, and when I say someone I can probably say the Tigers. A one point win over an understrength Titans and a big win over the Dragons, convincing as it was, is an entirely different level to the defending premiers. The Bunnies have scored 70 points from two outings thus far and they'll be adding another 40 or so this weekend. Regardless, I'm expecting a very entertaining game and a very busy scoreboard attendant.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 20
Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Tigers 6
Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday night – Robina Stadium
Greg Bird, Dave Taylor and Beau Falloon are back for the Titans, despite the fact that legal proceedings hang over their heads. At full time it might be worth having a chat to Chris Houston who could potentially offer some valuable advice. There was a lot to like about the performance of the Knights last weekend - even if I didn't enjoy it at the time. They were tough, they defended well and they found the try-line when the opportunities presented. Get those three things right and you will win 95% of football games. I think they'll win again. Bird and Taylor are likely to try too hard on the weekend - hoping to make up for lost time. When they do that they tend to play worse rather than better.
Verdict – Knights by 4
Result - Knights 20 defeated Titans 18
Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Monday night – Allianz Stadium
And the last game of the round is the best game of the round. Both teams were impressive last weekend. Granted the Roosters didn't win, but it's looking like competing with the Rabbitohs will be the high water mark in season 2015. The Panthers couldn't have done much more than they did in their demolition of the Titans, but that form has to have some sort of question mark over it. Jamie Soward is out for the Panthers but his replacement (Isaac John) is handy and the return of Josh Mansour is a huge include. This will be close, but I'm sticken with the chickens and their settled pairing in the halves.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result - Roosters 20 defeated Panthers 12
Wally Lewis - round three selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Sea Eagles vs BULLDOGS
- BRONCOS vs Cowboys
- WARRIORS vs Eels
- RAIDERS vs Dragons
- STORM vs Sharks
- RABBITOHS vs Tigers
- Titans vs KNIGHTS
- ROOSTERS vs Panthers
Comments
Submitted by Chi Spurga on
G'day all,
BULLDOGS -- Manly were better with the return of Jamie Buhrer linking with Mateo. Now Mateo will be No.6??? You're kidding. No easing the pressure this week for DCE. As Thinker said "Manly are weaker".
COWBOYS -- Bris had the luck last week. They only scratched and scrapped home. Cowboys forwards will be out for a big game and are a much harder proposition for the Bronc's to contend with then the Sharkies.
WARRIORS -- Both with injury worries. Expecting high scoring game without any sign of cohesion or rememberence of the coach's in-put. Just shut your eyes and run, pass & kick. The Warriors way.
RAIDERS -- Drags finally broke thru in Canberra, this time they gotta break the defensive line. Raiders have too many attacking options for St George to handle.
STORM -- Melb. too much talent. Sharks offer nothing after last week.
RABBITOHS -- Apart from complacency, can't see Tigers winning. BIG class rise for Tigers. George Burgess v Aaron Woods worth a look.
KNIGHTS -- Titans side coming off a flogging and with a couple players returning, I can see them starting safe and trying to lay a "platform". However, the Knights been coming from behind, thinking a better start for them this week and strong finish will be to much for the Titans.
ROOSTERS -- With Soward out I think the Roosters will "STOP" Matt Moylan and keep Penrith backpeddling. Enough to get a try or two in front.
Good luck all and have a great weekend.
9/12
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Alright. Looks like I will go first not that it deserved ! Congratulations again goes out to Delcan_S and Couch Potato for making it to the top of ladder this week with their picks. Me I've got to start making some better calls because I don't know about you but since start of footy season I have been losing some serious money with my bets. Things have been really bad for me. Like today I thought I had $707 left in the bank but it turns out that it said LOL and I been holding my ATM receipt upside down ! Yeah ... Let's get on with this week picks :
Bulldogs - Sea Eagles shouldn't of won last week. That's why I'm going with Bulldogs in this game. Canterbury by fourteen points.
Cowboys - Broncos and Cowboys are both struggling but it seems like the Broncos are struggling even worse. Cowboys by two points.
Warriors - The Eels won't win this game. Warriors by twelve points.
Dragons - Raiders losing their fullback will be huge loss for this side who are still too young and inexperienced. Dragons by four points.
Storm - the Storm at home against Sharks. Storm by eighteen points.
Rabbitohs - Rabbitohs are just too strong side. Last week they came back twice against Roosters win their game. Rabbits by eight points.
Titans - Newcastle have been lucky the last couple weeks and I can't see their luck holding out for too much longer. Titans by ten points.
Panthers - Panthers are the in form club of competition and they are also on top of ladder. Some people may think that too early in season for it mean anything but me I have a suspicion that it's all leading up to something in Mondays night game against Roosters. Panthers by four points,
Thanks again Thinker. Thanks alot everybody. Good luck everybody this week with all your tips and go the Warriors ! Kiwi power ! Peow! Peow ! ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Coach's margin call ... Thats C.o.a.c.h
Manly 13+
Nth Qld 1-12
New Zealand 1-12
St George 1-12
Melbourne 13+
Wests 1-12
Newcastle 13+
Penrith 1-12
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks Coach...we'll get it right eventually :-)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries. Potatoes are human too.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
A little better tipping effort last week (sigh of relief) so here’s hoping I can improve a little more this week. OK, let’s get into it…
Bulldogs - Yeah I know Manly won last week against a good Storm Troopers outfit but was there any merit in it? Watched the Doggies last Friday night and they were pretty impressive. Reckon their pack will be just too big for the Manly boys this week. Doggies for me.
Cowboys - The Cowboys have lost their first 2 games this year and both at home but I reckon they’ll open up their account this week against a Broncos outfit that didn’t really impress me last week. Yes I know that the Master WB might need some time to get these Broncos up and running but I’m not sure it’s gonna be this week. Maybe Mr Thurston will want to prove something after the treatment he got last week. Fire the boys up JT!
Warriors - Round 1 the Eels looked good. Round 2 they looked (very) bad. Warriors were ordinary until the return of Mr Tomkins. I think he makes a difference for the Warriors. So much so that the Newbie’s tipping the NZers to get this done somewhat easily at home. Peow! Peow!
Raiders - The Newbie has learnt his lesson! Do not, under any circumstances, tip St George again until they show some “fight”. Man they are pretty ordinary at the moment. The Green Machine are looking pretty handy. Well, a lot more “handy” than the Dragons anyway. Strange to see the Raiders go into a match as favourites but I reckon it’s deserved this week. Ricky should be a happy man Saturday night. Raiders for me.
Storm - The Storm Troopers will just be too much for the Sharks this week. I’m led to believe the Storm were desperately unlucky last week, due to some dubious calls from the decision-makers. For that reason and the fact that they are just a class above their opponents, Newbie is tipping the Stormers to smack the living daylights out of those Sharkies this week. Perfect scenario would be for the “Cry Baby” to get sent off after 10 minutes! I can dream can’t I? Storm Troopers for me.
Rabbits - Wow! The Tigers really surprised me last week but then again, they were up against pretty woeful opposition. They’re not gonna get it so easy this week. Every time I watch the Bunnies playing in the form they’re in, I just keep getting reminded how much of a good side they are. They will romp this one in. As our friend Chi Spurga has already mentioned, complacency is the only danger for them here.
Knights - The Titans have some big names back I see. Will it be enough? Knights are 2-0 and the Titans are 0-2. The maths the Boss was talking about earlier might just add up this time. You don’t have to “carry the Foran” in this game either. Looks pretty straightforward to me with this game. Knights to make it a perfect 3 out of 3.
Roosters - I have to tip the Mighty Chooks here, especially after last week. Yeah we had the Bunnies “beaten” twice but great sides never give up and unfortunately, that’s what the Bunnies did. I don’t think my beloved Chooks did either but rather the Fluffy Ones wanted it more. I liked (for most of the time anyway) what the boys did last Sunday and I’m afraid the Panthers will get slightly (not much though) “touched up” this week. Monday game is good for the extra recuperation so no excuses. Carn you Roosters!
Good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week people. Cheers.
P.S. What disease did cured ham actually have? Hmmm…
Submitted by The_NRL_Whisperer on
MANLY should get the points at home by a whisker, coming off a good performance against the Storm. Hasler is a factor, and Doggies improving. Manly by 2-4.
BRONCOS by a Bees whatsit! Cowboys normally hard to beat at home by anyone, have shown unusual vulnerability. If the Broncos can cut their mistake rate, at home from an away win, should win.
WARRIORS - No Watmough, Warriors home, no prob.
SOUTHS - Tigers will be brought back to earth crashing with a sound walloping.
ROOSTERS - Almost last week, too good for the Panthers this week.
KNIGHTS - There's a lot to like about how they're playing, great start spanking Cowboys in Townsville, who picked that? Titans struggling with trust and cohesion, even with their drug mules back, Knights full of confidence.
STORM - Who are the Sharks?
RAIDERS - Played well enough opening rounds to suggest a home win against a Saints team struggling without their fullback.
Giddy up.
Submitted by The Joker on
*cough cough*
Why are we tipping panthers away from home without soward against the roosters? Hmm.
Dogs by 10
Cows by 1
Warriors by 11
Raiders by 4
Storm by 8
Rabbits by 8
Knights by 2
Chooks by 16
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Don't know about anyone else but I tipped them because 2014 showed they had a depth of talent more than capable of stepping in when there's an injury, even to a key player. They will stick to roles, much like the Storm did after losing Inglis eg. Its also the haunting ground of the ghost from 1918. Sorry, I mean 19 - 18.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi all
Hey Johnny Ray love that gag man...keep em coming.
Very disappointed in the treatment of JT and the resulting let off for Beau Scott. This guy is a thug and needs some time to think about his playing style. Seems though that if you're a NSW origin player you can get away with anything.
Now I've had my gripe!
Dogs
Broncos
Warriors
Raiders
Storm
Rabbits
Knights
Roosters
Does anyone know why Bennett has dropped Daniel Vidot? Last year he was a major meter eater.
Good luck to all of you this week.
Submitted by This_guy on
IM BACK and The Stinker is back with his horrendous tips as well by the looks of it.
My tips
Manly 13+
Nth Qld 1-12
New Zealand 1-12
St George 1-12
Melbourne 13+
Wests 1-12
Newcastle 13+
Penrith 1-12
Submitted by Declan_S on
No analysis from me this week, I'll be going with the thinker and his predictions. I'm sensing there will be an upset somewhere over those last 5 games but I haven't the foggiest on who it will be!
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Bulldogs by 4 I think Bulldogs will get home on a friday night
Cowboys by 2 I think Cowboys will get their 1st win here
Warriors by 6 I think NZ is going to get a win here
Raiders by 2 I think Raiders will get a win here
Storm by 10 I think Storm will win here
Rabbitohs by 8 I think the Rabbitohs will be 3 from 3 here
Titans by 2 here we go I think with Bird and Taylor back I can sniff a bit of an upset here
Roosters by 4 I think Roosters are going to get an important win here
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ummm This_guy, good luck with all 8 of those tips (and margins too). Great minds I guess.
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Hello tipsters, Guru has to put his in at the last minute again....wing and a prayer at the moment, Guru is running his own little business at present and its taking tv time away
Submitted by christine on
a good luck with your tips this week, hope your right about the upset .
Submitted by Shanghai on
Well, here I am, two weeks into a new season and I'm slowly working my way down another tipping ladder! You won't get any analysis from me (it always proves too embarrassing)... I go with my gut. This week its:
Bulldogs
Cowboys
Warriors
Raiders
Storm
Rabbitohs
Titans
Roosters
Submitted by Tailspin on
Well there is only one way from the bottom and I am on my way up hopefully
Dogs t win by 10, manly got away with murder last week
Cowboys by anything I hope
Eeels by 6, they will be hurting from last performance
Dragons by 2, flip of a coin
Storm by 12
Rabittohs by a lot
Titans by 8, lets see if they let Knights off again with there tactics
Roosters at home to good
Submitted by Les Smith on
Footy season , how good is that
Go Manly
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
All righty then. (cue maniacal laughter) It seems to be the crunch round for me and its only the 3rd week.
Bulldogs. I agree with the Thinker and what happened to my Eels last week. If Manly finish with 8 uninjured players at the end of eighty minutes the could claim a win.
Cowboys. See last week broncos vs sharks. Dislike both teams but think that the cowboys have better odds
Eels. I know 4 out injured, travelling to N.Z, and Mt. Smart none the less. But if you can't/won't tip your own team its a pretty rough situation. #keepthefaith
Raiders. As a smart man once said if you find something good, i.e. tipping against the Raiders, stick with it. If you find something better, i.e. Raiders actually winning, switch to it.
Storm. On paper the Sharks should scare someone this year, when remains a lottery
Rabbits. Usually the tiger would feast on the rabbit, these Rabbits have bigger teeth
Knights. I am worried about this game, I want the Titans to come out and belt the knights to show that they aren't a spent force waiting till next year, but the head just can't see it
Roosters. Both good teams but as Johhny Ray pointed out away from home and no Soward. Again with the head on this one.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ok. Truth be known Potato is a proud Panther man. Just wanted to offer you all a stat on some influential players when starting their careers. Andrew Johns - first 23 games played, 10 wins. Cameron Smith - first 23 games played, 14 wins. Peter Sterling - first 23 games played, 14 wins. Allan Langer - first 23 games played, 15 wins. Wally Lewis - first 23 games played, 16 wins. Darren Lockyer - first 23 games played 17 wins. What's all this got to do with?? And what's 23? No doubt, he's no legend of the game as yet, and not been regarded as any superstar in the making, but stepping out for Penrith on Monday will be one Tyrone Peachey. He has played a total of 23 games for Cronulla and Penrith for an astonishing winning record of 18!! That outscores some of the most influential players of to have ever laced on a boot. Injured late in the season last year and I knew it was a big loss. Oh how he would have been useful in a Preliminary Final. So Roosters deserved home favourites on Monday for sure, but try telling that to the Panthers X Factor, Tyrone Peachey.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
It's great to have so many contributors this season. The more thoughts and more opinions only helps make it more confusing but I'm with the Thinker this week.
Bulldogs - Bigger, stronger pack sees me tipping the Doggies.
Cowboys - NQ have been my disappointment package of 2015 so far. I expect they will be a bit more desperate than the Broncos after two home losses.
Warriors - First home game of the season, injuries to the Eels is enough to convince me. Good to see Konrad Hurrell re-sign with NZ. As a mate of mine said his Mum will be happy.
Raiders - A rare weekend when I tip the green machine but is it any wonder against a poor Dragons outfit?
Storm - It would be an upset if Melbourne lose this game. Paul Gallen will be upset after another loss.
Rabbitohs - It's going to take a better team than the Tigers to beat the Bunnies.
Knights - Bird, Taylor etc. will be short of a gallop against a team who has exceeded expectations so far in 2015. The Knights look too good, especially in the backs.
Roosters - I loved your post Coach but it's not enough to swing me towards tipping the Panthers but I expect it will be close. Isaac John is a handy replacement for the injured Jamie Soward.
Good luck to everyone and enjoy the footy!! Thanks Thinker for a great site!!
Submitted by IP7 on
Come on Tigerholic you need to get them in before kick off!
Submitted by The Joker on
Is this a joke?
Submitted by The Joker on
Re: this_guys tips
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You mean a joke that This_guys appears to be a cut and paste of my tips, Joker? Or that my tips are a joke? I guess time will tell. Maybe I'm just letting yourself and others catch up.
Frankly, I'm giggling that the Raiders are unanimous after scraping home against Cronulla, getting dusted by the Warriors, and suddenly everyone declaring Stickys men have points in them?
As for Tigers, they are a confidence team and not short on any at the moment. Not to mention they have a blueprint to use from last year.
Submitted by christine on
coach potato I couldn't agree with you more about tyrone peachey he is the x factor.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thanks Chris. This article from November 2013 shows he was an important part of Gus's 5 year plan ....http://m.foxsports.com.au/nrl/new-penrith-recruit-tyrone-peachey-could-l...
Submitted by The Thinker on
Afternoon football fans,
It looks like everyone has their tips in on time. Well done to you all. The tip sheet is now closed for round three.
I'm told 40,000 tickets have already been sold at Suncorp tonight - let's hope both teams step up and give them a show.
There's still time to get on the special betting promo from William Hill if you are keen.
Brett Stewart to score a try and Manly to win - $6.00
Brett Morris to score a try and Bulldogs to win - $6.00
Both those guys scored doubles last round and have their eye in. Here's the link:
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Have a great weekend everyone.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah ... Here's an accurate assessment of Cowboys season so far : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kX1oid5Avp0 F&$@ing cost me money ! Dude ! :-(
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I'm with you there JR. How dreadful are the Cowboys? They were simply embarrassing last night. What's wrong with James Tamou? Manly get another call go their way with the Steve Matai try and the Thinker still looking for two from two on a Friday night!!
Submitted by The Thinker on
That was woeful last night. I don't think James Tamou has been right since his neck injury.
Wally - 2 from 2 again.....sigh!
Submitted by christine on
i'm 2 for 2 after last night & johnny ray that women on the escalator is me on a good day .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker, would 2 1/4 rounds be too early to call for a revision of the 2015 predictions? Cronulla 5th, Cowboys 6th, and South's 10th
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
I'm usually ready to revise those predictions about five minutes after I publish them.
The Cowboys were slow starters last years as well (winning 1 of their first 6 I think). Given their next 3 games they could by 0 from 6 this season.
As for the Bunnies - I think we can start assuming I got that one wrong. I knew I'd get something wrong eventually.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
All good. Just playing. I know that through history, you will see almost yearly instances of sides that finished in the top 4, headed for the bottom 4 within a year or two. The same can also be true for teams down the bottom, shooting up within two years. Penrith '01 last, '03 Premiers, Cronulla '08 3rd, '09 15th. Sydney '09 last, '10 G/F. So I think your "thinking" in this way was right. Manly 2nd, and Newcastle and Tigers 12th and 13th could be the big swingers this time?
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah what's statistic ? Since NRL came back from Super League in 1998 only 8 teams have gone on to play finals footy in September. Looks like we all got it wrong about Cowboys ! :-(
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Sorry correction. Only 8 times since 1998 have teams that started out 0-3 go on to play finals footy in September ! God ! Get it right Johnny Ray ! What's wrong with me ? Too busy watching Cupcake Wars and Pretty Little Liars, that's my problem ... :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
There's still hope for all 16. Panthers were only 1 from 4 in '03, then won 20 of the next 23 to take both minor premiership and the title.
Submitted by christine on
coach apart from peachey segeyaro seems to be having a field day at the moment & i would love to see him do the same to the roosters that he did to the bulldogs even though I did tip the roosters it would be worth the loss just to see it .
Submitted by christine on
a forget loyalty tip with your head not your heart , until they win a game I wouldn't be tipping cowboys at the moment but it's up to you what you do .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
They and Mansour are all great on their feet and play what's in front of them and that's why they keep beating defenders. Roosters have one called Roger. So many players these days halves, centres, wingers, even fullbacks can't beat a defender one on one unless its part of a rehearsed decoy play. Evasion and footwork have been 'decoyed' out of the game. I would back an Aussie team from the 70s or 80s against the current team and that's a bit sad.
Submitted by christine on
guru craig hope you've got your saddle ready again this season I think your going to need it .
Submitted by Declan_S on
Up the Knights!
Submitted by christine on
that makes me 6 from 7 this week with 1 to go .
Submitted by a on
Damn Titans nearly won
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Was I hearing right? Did I hear Inglis protest to the ref claiming Keith Galloway bitch-slapped Tim Grant? I guess you should know what you're talking about Greg.
Submitted by christine on
I was in the burrow at the souths game & keith Galloway did bitch slap tim grant .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No I meant Greg's ironic choice of words in light of his own domestic history
Submitted by a on
The bitches in that game must have been arguing with the refs
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