Round eight selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Wests Tigers - Friday night – ANZ Stadium

It's fair to assume that conditions underfoot will be difficult on Friday night. Under those circumstances you want a pack full of hard-nosed big boppers weathered by years of NRL exposure. You want guys that can tuck the ball under the arm and work their way up the middle of the paddock. You want ball security. That sounds like the Bulldogs pack to me, with or without their captain - Tolman and Eastwood come to mind. The Tigers have some big cattle coming through their system, but they are light on for experience - especially with Keith Galloway out of action.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Tigers 38 defeated Bulldogs 14

New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday lunchtime – Mt Smart Stadium

The Kiwis often put it all together for this round. No doubt they like to remind us that 40% of the ANZAC acronym belongs to them, but it's also a good time to put their hands up in front of the national selectors. Sam Rapira is back and I always think the Warriors are a better team when he's there. Dave Taylor is out for the Titans and you can't replace his size unless you have an elephant on your roster. That said, Nate Myles is the bellweather for the Titans - if he plays the Titans can win. Early indications are that he won't get there. The first of a string of ANZAC Day games this round - it will be interesting to see how the Kiwis mark the occasion.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Titans 32 defeated Warriors 28

Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

There's a lot of football on Saturday, but this game could end up being the best of a very good bunch. The Cowboys are speaking of revenge, but why talk about it? Now the Knights know what's coming. The Knights see themselves as a community team, and they will rally given what we've seen from mother nature in the Hunter region this week. I'm compelled to tip them, even though the Cowboys have been playing better footy. The Cowboys are warm favourites and I expect the weight of money will come for them - if I can find $2.60 for the Knights I'm prepared to ask Ms Thinker for a loan and stick her money where my mouth is. Gamble responsibly...and thank your partner while you're at it.

Verdict – Knights by 2

Result - Cowboys 26 defeated Knights 24

Sydney Roosters vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

If the Knights/Cowboys game doesn't deliver (and I think it will) then the 4pm game almost certainly will. This is your 'traditional' ANZAC clash and these sides turn up to play it. That both sides are in good form just adds to the anticipation. The Dragons have a defensive line that simply doesn't quit and they'll head into Saturday full of confidence and self-belief. The Roosters have lost two in a row but those two games were, I think, the two highest quality games we've seen this season. The injury to Waerea-Hargreaves has swung me here. Sam Moa returns but the Dragons pack has a slight edge (and I'll admit it, at the start of this season I didn't think I would ever say that the Dragons pack had an edge over anyone). The bookies don't give the Dragons much hope at all but I think that water-tight defense can frustrate their opponents out of the game. Back the 'total score unders' - it's been quite the money-spinner in Dragons games this season and I can't see any reason to stop backing it yet.

Verdict – Dragons by 2

Result - Dragons 14 defeated Roosters 12

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – AAMI Park

First plays last. Oddly enough, the only game the Sea Eagles have won this year...they beat the Storm. I thought the Storm were pretty unlucky to lose that game but they won't be letting luck determine the outcome on Saturday night. Keiran Foran comes back, but Jamie Lyon comes back out - the Sea Eagles seem to have run out of luck altogether. All those Kiwis in the Storm forward pack will be keen to make a statement this weekend. I have an image in my head of a final score of Storm 32 - Sea Eagles 4. Let's see if I'm close.

Verdict – Storm by 28

Result - Sea Eagles 12 defeated Storm 10

Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

It's rare to see one player lose a game of football for a team, but one player went very close to achieving just that when the Broncos went down narrowly to the Dragons last weekend. I try to focus on the positives rather than the negatives, so I won't name and shame him here. With the injury to Justin Hodges he gets a chance to atone, and I hope he does. I keep thinking this is a danger game for the Broncos, but my uncanny record of getting the Broncos results wrong is hanging over my head. I've got them right just once this season - when they beat the Warriors by 8 points (and I even got the margin right). I'll tip that margin again. That Broncos pack looks too good to me and I think they'll win on the back of that platform. Keep an eye on Josh McGuire in this game - he's likely to be best on ground.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result - Broncos 28 defeated Eels 16

Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – Pepper Stadium

Paul Gallen is back this weekend, not that he was needed on Monday night. The Sharks haven't lost a game for three weeks, and in that time they've beaten two of the heavyweights in the Rabbits and the Roosters. During the same period the only team the Panthers have beaten are the Sea Eagles. To get a gauge on how far the Panthers have fallen have a look at their game against the Titans last week. Just a few weeks earlier the Panthers beat the Titans 40-0. For reasons that baffle me the bookmakers can't split these sides, but I can. The Sharks won't win by much, but they'll win.

Verdict – Sharks by 6

Result - Panthers 26 defeated Sharks 18

South Sydney Rabbitohs  vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Barlow Park

Barlow Park is in Cairns for those that are curious, and the Rabbitohs will appreciate the change of scenery given they spent much of their round seven loss underwater. Clearly the Bunnies are missing Adam Reynolds and his kicking game but what remains of that very talented backline should enjoy the drier and warmer conditions in what is a rare daytime game in North Queensland. The Bunnies have won just one game in their last four outings...and that was by a single point in a very controversial game. They're better than that. Surely they're better than that.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 10

Result - Raiders 30 defeated Rabbitohs 22

Wally Lewis - round eight selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BULLDOGS vs Tigers
  • WARRIORS vs Titans
  • Knights vs COWBOYS
  • ROOSTERS vs Dragons
  • STORM vs Sea Eagles
  • BRONCOS vs Eels
  • Panthers vs SHARKS
  • RABBITOHS vs Raiders

William Hill betting promotion - Round Eight

  • Sydney Roosters to beat St George Illawarra Dragons - $2.00 (maximum bet at these odds is $50)

Here's the link (gamble responsibly):

http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a_10302b_1152

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

Oh you mean my dont worry advice.. (no worries)

The Thinker's picture

Morning Coach

I'll do a preview of the rep games for the weekend, but these games won't form part of the tipping competition.

By all means you can add your tips in the comments section though.

All the best

a's picture

Yes I will do it as it goes along

christine 's picture

souths prblems just got worse glenn stewart has been ruled out for 10 - 12 weeks he needs tendon surgery on his thumb he injured it playing against Canberra on sunday

a's picture

They are playing Dragons next as well

Coach Potato's picture

I told 3 weeks back about St George being $21 to make top 4 and Souths being $11 to miss the finals. St George now $3 to make top 4 and Souths $4 to miss the finals.

The Thinker had South's finishing 10th. I doubt he would have been right about that if they'd stayed injury free, but even with just Reynolds out, the boat's been springing leaks, but now they're sunk and The Thinker will be close to the mark.

Injuries are cruelling Penrith too. Unless Soward gets back and in form this month, they're probably gone too.

Coach Potato's picture

We will see if this Friday is Greg Bird's last game? - facing drug trafficking charges along with Dave Taylor, Kalifi Faifai Loa, and former players Ashley Harrison and Joe Vickery. Court proceedings resume next Friday. Beau Falloon and Jamie Dowling's hearing somehow missed getting reported??? - only to know that it will be sometime in May.

Should we have faith in the Australian legal system to get to the bottom of this? Judging by Karmichael Hunt's guilty verdict and fine of $2500, probably as much faith in the next favourite to win an NRL game.

a's picture

Yes The Thinker could be spot on about South finishing 10th

christine 's picture

I've already tipped dragons to beat souths

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