Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters - Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
A sombre mood hung over the city of Brisbane after their round one loss to the Rabbitohs, but in the four weeks since the Broncos have moved from last on the ladder to equal first - perhaps my season predictions weren't as overly optimistic as most (including me) thought. This game should give us a guide to their level, taking on one of the competition heavy-hitters backing up from a surprise loss at home. Justin Hodges is unavailable for one more week so this Bennett backline, held together with enthusiasm and good intentions, needs to keep on doing what it's doing. If Hodges can get his hamstrings right, and Boyd can get his head right...look out everyone! Aidan Guerra is out for some time for the Chooks - he's one of my favourite players but the Roosters aren't short on talent in the back row. Note the important return of Jared Waerea-Hyphens. His one-two punch combo with Sam Moa can put opponents on the ropes in double-quick time. Credit to the Broncos for what they've continued to do with the cattle they have, but I'll take the Chooks in a close one. Game of the round.
p.s. those wondering why the Chooks would let Roger Tuivasa-Sheck go to the Warriors, check out the 17 year old kid (Latrell Mitchell) in the video below (language warning)
Verdict – Roosters by 2
Result - Broncos 22 defeated Roosters 18
Cronulla Sharks vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Remondis Stadium
Ben Barba gets put in his box for a while - coming off the bench while rising stars Jack Bird (five-eighth) and Valentine Holmes (fullback) are in the starting thirteen. It was impossible to ignore this duo in the Auckland Nines and Jack Bird stepped up to the podium and announced his arrival in grand style last weekend. To play in an unfamiliar position and perform like that against a quality opponent....let's just say he gets a big tick from me. This time his opponents will be paying him his due, and he has the added pressure of the Friday night timeslot (and the inevitable Channel Nine promotion). The Sharks don't get a lot of Friday night fixtures, and when they do they often lose. That they usually play a very good team when they do get a Friday night slot goes some of the way toward explaining why. Are the Knights a very good team? Undefeated until the 'Alex McKinnon' game, where they were a strong favourite and couldn't score a point. Beau Scott is out for the Knights and you want all your tough forwards on deck when you face the Sharks. He's one of the best defenders in the game and just the sort of forward that could apply plenty of pressure to a young playmaker - without Scott I am deeply unsure. I'll punt on Kade Snowden and Jeremy Smith (former Sharks) having big games at their old stomping ground. Tipsters note that I am suffering from the Friday night curse again this season, so you may wish to lean the other way.
Verdict – Knights by 2
Result - Sharks 22 defeated Knights 6
Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Pirtek Stadium
Usually not the sort of game I would recommend as a viewing highlight, but Reece Robinson is back for the Eels, and his goal-kicking gives me a peaceful easy feeling. Now we just need the Eels to score a few tries...hardly a certainty. The Titans looked fantastic for 20 minutes against the Broncos but couldn't cross the stripe. Given recent results, the final score might look like an A-League result. Hopefully both sides have spent the week working on some attacking plays. Given the Eels are back at Pirtek I'll tip them at home...it's the only rational explanation I have.
Verdict – Eels by 2
Result - Titans 38 defeated Eels 16
New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Mt Smart Stadium
The Warriors are $1.40 to win this game - possibly the worst bet in the history of rugby league. Our favourite cousins have started the season with one of their typically craptastic starts. They may find their feet this weekend, but you have to take toxic odds if you want to back them to do so. Despite my well-founded reservations I'm going to tip them anyway. Both teams are backing up from a Monday night fixture in Australia, but I'm assuming the Warriors trip to New Zealand is a relief, while the same journey for the Tigers has the opposite effect. Look for tired legs in the last 20 minutes and for one team to run away from the other.
Verdict – Warriors by 14
Result - Warriors 32 defeated Tigers 22
Penrith Panthers vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – Pepper Stadium
We mentioned the Monday night back-up curse for the Panthers, but they won't get a better chance to break the hoodoo than this weekend. The Sea Eagles were near enough to ordinary last weekend and they have to front up with the same seventeen again. I don't think their forward pack (as it stands...and its barely standing) is good enough right now, and the Manly backline could be in for a frustrating period. Barbs will be thrown at their departing playmakers, but Foran and Hyphen-Evans were two of their better performers last week. Penrith are missing a few big guns also, but the guns they have are good enough. Trendy choreographed hand-shakes for Elijah Taylor - who made more tackles last weekend (77) than most rugby union players make in their entire careers.
Verdict – Panthers by 2
Result - Panthers 22 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Canberra Raiders vs Melbourne Storm – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium
If the seventeen named for Canberra were contracted to the Melbourne Storm, how many of them would Craig Bellamy name in his seventeen? I'm thinking probably one (former Storm winger Sisa Waqa) and maybe two (if Josh Papali found his best form). Canberra at home keeps them in the contest, but in recent times they've been losing more games at home than winning. Note that Billy Slater is a doubtful starter this weekend. That just means Smith and Cronk will lift another notch. Purple reign...purple reign.
Verdict – Storm by 10
Result - Storm 14 defeated Raiders 10
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Karma Police...suspend these men. The Dragons couldn't have timed this better with Graham, Klemmer and Kasiano all accepting their match bans and injuries to Lafai and Brett Morris (in the last tackle of the game no less). I mentioned the Dragons defensive efforts last week and they mentioned it as well by keeping the Knights scoreless in Newcastle. They are the surprise packet in season 2015 thus far and I think they're near enough to good things this weekend. At $1.90 I'm happy to ride the Dragon train. Backing the 'total score unders' worked last week and you can do worse than throw your winnings on that option again (gamble responsibly).
Verdict – Dragons by 8
Result - Dragons 31 defeated Bulldogs 6
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – ANZ Stadium
I'm not sure if the Cowboys are back, but if they win back-to-back Monday night fixtures in Sydney against quality opponents I will be more sure than I am now. One thing I am sure of is this - the NRL is a better competition when the Cowboys are playing well. They were outstanding last Monday against Penrith, and if they bring that form they win again. The loss of Reynolds for the Bunnies is crucial. His kicking in general play is even more important than his goal-kicking. Someone has to take on that role, and I don't think that person can be John Sutton. Clearly Thurston has been playing at some sort of non-human level for the last two weeks, but do not under-estimate the rest of the Cowboys spine. The return of Coote at the back, Morgan in the halves and Granville as the starting hooker has made a world of difference. Bunnies are favourites...Cowboys to win.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result - Cowboys 30 defeated Rabbitohs 12
Wally Lewis - round six selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Broncos vs ROOSTERS
- Sharks vs KNIGHTS
- EELS vs Titans
- WARRIORS vs Tigers
- PANTHERS vs Sea Eagles
- Raiders vs STORM
- Dragons vs BULLDOGS
- RABBITOHS vs Cowboys
Comments
Submitted by christine on
coach your right I did think you were against souths & I like mark got the impression you were a dogs supporter but now we have been corrected on the matter so that matter is not an issue anymore & it's no one else's business who supports what club infact my father said to me when I was younger I don't care what sport you follow as long as it is nrl .
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Grant Young. Front row forward. 35 games for 7 wins with the Crushers 95 and 96. More to do with being part of the Crushers I would say. Although he then had 9 games with Auckland in Super League 97 for only 2 wins. No immortal I'm afraid.
Submitted by Anonymous on
Mr Thinker,
After 5 rounds and a total of 40 games at $1 a win bet, your system of betting the roughie would give you a return of $39.49. A loss of 50 cents.
A wager against your friday night selections would have made you a huge profit. :P
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Wow. Who had the bigger look of disbelief when the ball hit the black dot, James Maloney or Benny Elias? Possibly Benny just, but that + extra time told me it was de ja vu and the Roosters were going down
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings Anonymous (if that is your real name),
Not by my records at least.
And yes, I've made many a reference to my Friday night curse...that would be much more profitable.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Crap ! That completely sucks ! The Brisbane Bondage beat Sydney Redheads ! Stupid autocorrect ... :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Chi Chi, what about the Golden Bear. He had a stock standard fade. Won 6 times. Faldo played with a fade. He won 3 times. Phil Mickelson. He's a lefty with a draw ie left to right. He won 3 times too. Craig Stadler. Like to see him draw a ball around that belly, another winner.
I don't think that theory holds these days with the ever increasing distances players get off the tee, the shorter irons into the greens, you would think the fade being the softer landing ball is now the go, although fading back to the 16th pin on day 4 a little scary.
The biggest hitter of them all, Bubba is still my pick.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
@ Coach Potato https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Z4w7H48tBS8 Hehehehehehee ! ;-D
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Funny and ironic that it's the US Masters playing where pre 1975 the only blacks allowed on course were those carrying a golf bag as caddy.
This is a little about life on tour for Lee Elder, first African American to qualify for the Masters...
In 1975, Elder became the first African American to play in the Masters. Leading up to the tournament he received substantial amounts of hate mail. Fearing for his safety, during the week of the tournament he rented two houses in town and kept moving between them, and always had people around him when he went to eat.
At the Monsanto Open in 1968 in Pensacola, Florida, the same tournament at which he claimed his first PGA Tour victory six years later to qualify for the Masters, Elder and other black players on tour were forced to change their clothes in the parking lot because members of the club would not allow non-whites in their clubhouse. While playing in a tournament in Memphis, Tennessee, a fan picked up Elder's ball on a hole and threw it in a hedge. The incident was witnessed by another pro golfer, and Elder was given a free drop.
Elder tried to stay focused on the game, but unlike the majority of players on tour he was constantly bothered by unruly fans, frequently receiving hate mail and threatening phone calls.
Submitted by a on
I am 2 form 2 this week at the moment
Submitted by Chi Spurga on
Coach, you are correct as usual. However, in the case of 3rd fav Shane lowry it is his nemisis, he does try to draw ( on Euro tour) but get the dreaded "hook"instead. Not ideal. Also his stats are well below what is required here. Short off the tee, 60% greens in reg., par 3 and par 4 for year played at OVER and par 5's just under at 4.8. This with several other important stats (in my opinion) made him waaaay UNDER the odds. The others speak for themselves.
For the record:- After 2nd round, Danny Willetts is leading this wager at -2. Next best debutant at +1. I am certainly hoping he holds on. But still confident....................................Shane Lowry WILL MISS THE CUT at +3.
Like Bubba to .............. But Jordan Speith looks impressive. The new Tiger prehaps. I wonder if Aussies can claim Speith as our own? Ever since he won in OZ it has kick started the best form of his life.
So true Lee Elder. I am sure when Vijay Singe (Fiji) won the Masters he had troubles in that area too. Might have been before he won. Memory fading.
Good luck and have a great day
Submitted by a on
I caught up 1 with Wally again last night
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Willett going well. Bubba's two hands on the jacket will be crowning Speith in two days. Chasing birdies and eagles will take it's toll on the whole field. Half way score is often the winning score as pins get tougher so just needs to keep it in play and out of the water. Wishing Greg Norman and Jean Van der Velde in the Open had thought to manage themselves better.
Submitted by Tailspin on
Hey Thinker, was wondering if I can put my tips in for next round now as I am off to Tasmania for a week and wont be back in time, If so my tips are as follows.
Dogs by 2
Broncos by 8
Panthers by 6
Cowboys by 10
Storm by 4
Tigers by 6
Eels by 2
Rabittohs by 6
Cheers and hope you all have a good week.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Good win for the Broncos last night and poor Thinker your Friday night curse continues....ugh!!
I'm disagree with you Coach regarding Ivan Cleary. Anyone who can get that motley bunch the Warriors to a Grand Final must be a super coach in my opinion!! Ivan must be doing something right considering the form at the Panthers prior to him taking over and the subsequent downward spiral of the Warriors after he left.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Enjoy the 80s and enjoy the 89 Grand Final highlights including the coup Tina Turner ad campaign. I have to ask though, was Gavin Miller the best face of league we had??? Great final. For a losing side the Sironen try still does things to the hair on the back of your neck. Mitchell last night joined his dad with captaining a side where a player hit the cross bar hoping to seal the game with a field goal, it ends up in extra time, and somehow ends up on the losing side.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-dyyC0jRczs
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Steel, I fear its why the Warriors made it to the dance but left empty handed. Cleary's cool calm head works great during the season, but in the big ones, I really think the team needs someone to get them stirred up from the start. The calm approach to last years prelim including the open training session that I attended, and saw a team either skylarking or training at only 50%, and the coach happy to say I can't do any more - didn't sit well. You could see they had lost focus. That's the coaches job. Sorry Ivan, but the biggest games are when your coaching is needed the most.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Steel, I fear its why the Warriors made it to the dance but left empty handed. Cleary's cool calm head works great during the season, but in the big ones, I really think the team needs someone to get them stirred up from the start. The calm approach to last years prelim including the open training session that I attended, and saw a team either skylarking or training at only 50%, and the coach happy to say I can't do any more - didn't sit well. You could see they had lost focus. That's the coaches job. Sorry Ivan, but the biggest games are when your coaching is needed the most.
Submitted by Anonymous on
I hope Manly will stay on the bottom
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning Tailspin,
That is absolutely fine. Have a great time in Tasmania - I finally got down there last year and loved every minute of it.
All the best
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
In my opinion when you get to that level as a player, unless you have glaring errors in your game i.e. Parra wingers coming in to far and to early. UGH. There should be very little for a coach to do apart from break down the opposing team and work with his players on a game plan. I'm agreeing with Coach that Ivan should have had them focused and planning, but skill set wise he was right. If you can't catch a finger tip pass at 23-24 you never will.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
The Warriors lost both of their grand finals due to pressure. That's problem with New Zealand sports in general is that we are no good under pressure so we end up not only battling our opponents but also ourselves. Look at this Cricket World Cup Final for example. After winning the toss, we should never of chosen to bat first but knowing how much we had to win this we went ahead and did it anyway. Then what happened ? Three balls in our top Batsman gets bowl out because he kept trying sledge the thing. Why would you do that at start of game ? Again pressure. It's one thing guys we still can't beat. R.I.P Richie Benaud :-(
Submitted by christine on
a yes you got another 1 back on wally but you have two different to me, I didn't take broncos & I took souths but what I take doesn't affect any one on this website , I was told yesterday by someone I know expect three teams to have loses for the next few weeks & those teams were knights , roosters , bulldogs & they have been right about two of those teams so far & the third hasn't played yet so it's something to keep in mind for me at least .
Submitted by Declan_S on
@CoachPotato
Nine times out of ten referee decisions go both ways and bad calls even out in the long run, I'm just saying that I hope your panthers get the rub of the green this week :~)
Submitted by a on
I hope Souths lose to the Cowboys
Submitted by christine on
Sutton has been ruled out of the cowboys clash . & a i'm sure you do want souths to loose but i'm still taking them they are my team .
Submitted by a on
I respect your tip but I am taking the Cowboys because they are my team
Submitted by christine on
a it's alright if cowboys beat souths not a problem & if souths beat cowboys same thing it's not a problem it's just a game it's not personal ok
Submitted by a on
Yes it is just a game
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Laws of probability say you're right Declan_S, except good luck Panthers getting rub of the green this week with Shayne Hayne in the box. God help us all if the ref draws a square
Submitted by a on
What happen if you miss a wwek like the Guru what is going to happen to you
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Jay Ray, the Warriors have been for so long not Auckland, but New Zealand - so if each week they are representing their country, where's the Haka before each game? I think it should be compulsory. They have the perfect opportunity to fire themselves up with this and they don't do it. Did they do it in the Grand Finals?
Submitted by christine on
they don't do the haka because they are not representing new Zealand they are playing for a franchise is what i'm told
Submitted by christine on
well done to anyone that tipped titans , good for you
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh you mean New Zealand not the country?
Submitted by a on
Only New Zealand do it
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Well who's the Haka Tiki Mafia King that says no? The crowds love it. Maybe its no good for the tongue ligaments to stretch them so often. Doesnt anyone remember we used to play the Australian National Anthem before every game. What was this in reference to? Australia but not the country. The other one.
Submitted by a on
Manly is dead last at the moment
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Yeah the thing about Haka as much as I would love to see it, we would never allow it to happen. It's too much of an issue now as number of Maori's find it offensive if it's performed by non-natives. Honestly, I'm surprised considering all controversy they have now back home concerning Washington Redskins that they haven't made us change name yet. But don't get me going ... :-(
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh so its representative not of New Zealand as a whole, but only of Maori New Zealand. When I see SKD, Nightingale and the like joining in, I've seen that as a spectator as the Maori people happy to share their culture with anyone Kiwi, so it never struck me that this dance was anything but a celebration of unity. I'm sorry that this is the cause of so much discontent.
I'm sure the whole Australian team could perform the Indigenous equivalent war dance before every Test (similar to the one seen before the All Stars game), but haven't and dont for the similar reasons you have explained.
Submitted by a on
Yes they only do the Hama when MpNZ are playing as a country
Submitted by christine on
a for tomorrow nights game I won't be here to post comments after the game so any comments directed to me because of souths will have to wait till Tuesday even though I may post comments before the game starts ok
Submitted by Tailspin on
Thanks Thinker, looking forward to it apart from the cold, :)
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KBxSntGGm8U Raiders ! :-(
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Last week I thought the Dogs deserved better but unlike last week, this week they got what they deserved. A good old fashioned hiding!! They were dreadful and surely their 6 and 7 won't be the halves for NSW this year.
I will say though that all the increased scrutiny by the NRL regarding concussions makes me laugh when you see an incident like we did today and the offender only gets put on report. What do you have to do to get sent off in this game? Dogs lose a player for the rest of the game and the Dragons suffer no penalty. Sin bin as a minimum surely although this only gets used for a professional foul which is usually a non-injury related incident. You inflict enough damage to have the other guy taken off on a stretcher and you merely get put on report. What a farce.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
As posted Friday, St George were $21 for the top 4. Most bookies including Billy Bob Hill suspend their betting mid-round, but a couple of the ones with more courage have them shortening. Sportsbet have them at $15, and Betfair have them into ..... $5 !!!! Maybe they read my theory, or maybe they forget that the Dragons started 3 from 3 last year, and faded to be 4 from 12. Or maybe both.
Will be interesting to see who's streak finishes first next Friday, and how long the winner's continues. Dragons on 4, Broncos on 5. Good luck to both. Remembering, regardless of non believers, you only see teams with 3 streaks totalling 10 wins finish in the top 4.
Submitted by a on
Broncos usually beat the Dragons
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Tough call on the Dogs, but would it have been a fair result if the Dogs had won because of the extra man, when clearly 13 on 13 was not doing it? I'm still thinking.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
You're right a. Brisbane have won the last 8. Although just before that streak started the Dragons had a run of 8 in a row themselves. I think many will struggle to pick a clear winner this time.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Coach....the Dragons could have been down to 10 men and the Dogs wouldn't have won. Not with the continual poor 5th tackle options that were being taken from minute 1 to minute 80 by Canterbury. They built zero pressure on the Dragons.
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