Round sixteen selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Knights, undefeated after four rounds, are racing toward the wooden spoon at a rate that screams 'give us that spoon and give it to us now'. I spoke of the post-Bennett hangover at the start of the season and it looks like it has well and truly kicked in. This weekend the Knights get to show their old coach just how much it hurts. Thaiday gets a rest and Corey Parker slots back in as part of the prop rotation policy at the Broncos during the Origin period - given that the Broncos have won four in a row (including three away games) I think we can say the policy is working. One of those away games was actually against the Knights. The Broncos had six Origin players unavailable that night, and they still won by 13 points. Back at Suncorp and with most of their Origin stars - if anyone can find a reason to tip the Knights I'd love to hear it. There are no good things in the NRL, but this looks an awful lot like it. The Broncos by 13+ is paying $1.70. Yes please. And I'll have one of those Coach bets too - Anthony Milford to score at anytime at $2.50. Gamble responsibly...I already have.

Verdict – Broncos by 34

Result - Broncos 44 defeated Knights 22

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

There'll be more brothers at ANZ Stadium on Friday night than a Motown convention - Burgess brothers for both sides, Stewart brothers for both sides (although Glenn will be in the dugout looking on) and a couple of Trbojevic brothers for the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles will be hoping to make a statement on Friday night - a win here and a top eight finish is still within reach. Last round they realised the best way to get through the Tigers was to go around them. I expect they'll try a similar tactic this weekend but the Bunnies know a thing or two about slide defence. The Foran/Cherry-Evans show gets another run and the latest Sea Eagle to turn his back on a contract with another club will be keen to show his wares to everyone. Does he stay at Manly? Goodness me, he might end up at the Gold Coast. Greg Inglis at fullback gets a chance to remind Mal Meninga (and Laurie Daley) just how destructive he can be - although I doubt either need to be reminded. He's the difference for mine. I'm entertaining backing the Sea Eagles with the handicap start - if I can get a  10.5 points start I'll take it. Bunnies...but barely.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 2

Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Sea Eagles 8

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

The Warriors aren't the sort of side that sneaks under the rader but all of a sudden they're on the cusp of the top four. A win this weekend and a bye next weekend and bim bam boom they'll be no more sneaking under radars for the Warriors this season. There's nothing wrong with the Raiders form either, and the scheduling gods have blessed us by making this a daytime fixture. Given the time zones this game could come and go before you realise it so give yourself a gentle reminder. The Raiders pack are performing way beyond the expectations of most, and a big game from Josh Papalii could see him wearing Maroon in Game III. The game of the round. The Warriors at home.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Warriors 30 defeated Raiders 8

North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

In the most even sporting competition on the planet the run by the Cowboys is quite a run. I'm reluctant to take on a team that keeps on winning, even without Jonathan Thurston. The Sharks appear to be gaining some momentum and Paul Gallen is back to play (unless he gets whisked off by the United Nations to negotiate a peace deal in the Middle East). But winning is one of the few infections anyone should want to catch, and the Cowboys still look pretty sick to me. For those that are punting - perhaps the Sharks with the handicap start or the Cowboys by 1-12.

Verdict – Cowboys by 2

Result - Sharks 24 defeated Cowboys 18

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – Pirtek Stadium

Someone needs to remind the bookmakers that the Eels are in equal last place and the Dragons are outright third. Perhaps that someone should be me, because $1.75 for the Dragons seems puntworthy...unless I'm missing something. Granted the Dragons have lost two games in a row but a narrow loss to the Roosters is pretty good form. The Eels are getting better, but they're still losing plenty of close encounters. They won last start, but they had some luck and the Storm were without their key men. Since then they've lost some key men of their own in Nathan Peats and Corey Norman. $1.75...what am I missing?

Verdict – Dragons by 8

Result - Eels 16 defeated Dragons 12

Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Central Coast Stadium

The Titans are so short of troops they've called on players from other clubs to plug the gaps. Former Knight Chad Redman has driven up the Pacific Highway to start at hooker - I hope his agent pointed out that the Titans are going through hookers like Spinal Tap went through drummers (I'm uncomfortable with how that sentence reads but you know what I mean). Even more bizarrely, former Rooster Nene Macdonald slots into the centres. He'll probably get the bus up to Gosford with his old team. The Roosters have moved this game to a neutral location - they'll be winning regardless.

Verdict – Roosters by 14

Result - Roosters 20 defeated Titans 10

Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Leichhardt Oval

North and South Korea are more connected than Robbie Farah and the bones in his shoulder, but he's playing anyway. I suppose he can't keep trotting out for the Blues and not trotting out for the club that he captains. I can't tip a winner in this game with any confidence, but the Panthers have been letting Coach and I down in recent weeks, and the Tigers have to win a game at Leichhardt Oval eventually. If the weather plays fair it should be a great little afternoon out. If any of you are in Sydney on Sunday afternoon drag yourself out from underneath your wife or husband, take a stroll through the streets of Balmain and pull up a patch of grass on the hill. You'll have to stand up the whole time, but if Robbie Farah can pull a jersey on to his dislocated body you should be able to stay vertical for 80 minutes. Tigers...finally

Verdict – Tigers by 2

Result - Panthers 35 defeated Tigers 12


 

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm – Monday night – Belmore Sports Ground

The Bulldogs are warming into the season and are one team that could get on a run as we head toward the business end. The Purple Machine couldn't get through the Wall of Brisbane last weekend and now they take their show on the road. The Storm have lost six games this season and in five of those losses the margin was four points or less. Another narrow loss looks the likely outcome here. There is some talk that Cronk could play and that's the sort of team change you want to know about. As things stand it's the Belmore Boys for mine.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Bulldogs 20 defeated Storm 4

Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • BRONCOS vs Knights
  • RABBITOHS vs Sea Eagles
  • WARRIORS vs Raiders
  • COWBOYS vs Sharks
  • Eels vs DRAGONS
  • ROOSTERS vs Titans
  • TIGERS vs Panthers
  • BULLDOGS vs Storm

James Ackerman Trust Fund

Most of you would have heard about the tragic death of James Ackerman, who died on Monday following a tackle during an Intrust Super Cup match on the weekend. I didn't know James Ackerman, but I did see him play a few times when he was part of the Broncos under 20 squad in 2009 and 2010. I have a soft spot for players that play the game like Ackerman played the game. He wasn't the most gifted of footballers but he was one of the most reliable. Think Trevor Gillmeister, Alan Tongue, Matt Hilder or Nigel Plum. Your team is better for having them there.

James was an organ donor. He gave without fanfare on the field, and he's still giving. Apparently his lungs are so big they've been unable to find a suitable recipient in Australia...so they're heading overseas.

James leaves behind a young family, and a trust fund has been set up to help. I'm not hassling anyone to contribute, but if you wish to make a donation the details are below. Those in South-East Queensland may wish to save the date of the Broncos/Storm NRL game in Round 26 - the final round of the season. I'm quite sure that game will be set aside as a fundraising event for the Ackerman family...and it should be a darn good game of football too.

For what it's worth I'll donate the June proceeds this website receives from all those annoying ads you lot have to put up with, plus any winnings from my silly bets this weekend. Vale James Ackerman. Condolences to his family, friends and team-mates. Best wishes to Francis Molo. #putyourfootyout

Bank of Queensland

BSB: 124001

Account No: 11500777

Reference: 151 181

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

Two $3 plus teams go down, so the score in these games is now still outsider 8/ favourite 7. If this doesn't still sound like a huge discrepancy, I dont know what one is. There's still two more of these games this week. You shouldn't just expect that the favourites here will win. I'm happy to he still holding one more roughie card.

Coach Potato's picture

Amazed that this week's stat has caused a total of zero comment. It's not creative accounting everyone. It's 100% true. Not about the roughie in each game, just the $3+ games. Did anyone see Manly in the game up to their necks, and Knights with a sniff in the second half? Belied the odds didnt it?

The Thinker's picture

Well I thought it was interesting Coach.

It's a very even comp - no surprise to me that the prices for the outsiders are often over the odds.

Baggy_Gee's picture

I think that the stat is quite interesting, enough so that I took the outsiders on Saturday and Sunday based on your outlook as well as Flat mate of old mates betting rules (sorry forgot your name Bro).

But I think you over looked a minor thing with Einstien ( https://youtu.be/6XQtd9cTGFM ) vs Knights game, Bennett is back at the Shetlands. This would usually mean nothing, as your stats rang very true for the Dragon's and the Knights, but which club is the poster child of the NRL since the Storm got sent to their room in disgrace?

By the by, I hope that Josh McGuire is OK and that he gets the best treatment to get him back at the start of next season. A terrible thing to happen.

Coach Potato's picture

It's interesting for me, when teams can break the trend with certain stats. To put the opposite spin on it, not many big favourites have ended up winning. Maybe it's Broncos, Cowboys, and Roosters who will show themselves as different this week - or maybe not?

Unfortunately Baggy it shows as not a long term strategy to take all the big roughies. Great strike rate, and definitely a winner on the punt this year if you took them all, but footy tipping won't get you far. Still need to get the selection right - somehow!!

#As much as Mullen made a big difference, the Knights have now reached the dreaded 10 in the losing streak score, so they are condemned to bottom 4 like Broncos and Cowboys have their 10, condemning them to the top 4.

The Thinker's picture

Coach,

I'm often more comfortable backing a team with the handicap start if I think they are paying more than they should be.

Granted the reward is smaller than backing them outright, but you also have a bit of insurance there that rewards you for being close.

Nothing more frustrating than tipping an outsider and watching them lose in golden point.

Coach Potato's picture

My week 5 forecast stat of top 8 bottom 8 reposted below. Not 100% but not bad either. Newcastle the wrong one, but the stat didn't come with warranty. Strange that I check this, and Cowboys are playing Sharks tonight...

"...and lastly stat wise congrats to the current top4 Souths, Brisbane, Newcastle, and Sydney. 90% chance of seeing you now play in September. As for Nth Qld, Cronulla, Gold Coast, and Manly, stats say it will be tough to make the finals, and although Manly has done it twice from here in recent years I don't think the 2015 team is as good. Cowboys and Sharks could prove me wrong. Will see.'

Coach Potato's picture

They have a bet in NSW called tribet. Team A to win by 7 or more, team B to win by 7, or either team to win by 6 or less.

Rather than take the line, I like to split my bet between head to head, and 7+.

Eg team paying $2 head to head, & $3 to win 7+. You see that if you get both, your average bet price becomes $2.50, better than the $1.90 line.

Coach Potato's picture

My favoured bet though is finding two roughies then splitting between a two game head to head multi, and two game 7+ multi.

Coach Potato's picture

I wonder if Achilles heel injuries could end up being the Broncos Achilles heel? Hodges, Boyd, now Maguire.

mark ashford's picture

Sorry Coach if there aren't too many comments on your stats, betting affrays, where you'll finish etc.
I don't understand all the multiple thingies you can bet on these days so limit myself to a once a year slash on the Melb Cup and the occasional $ in the pokies.
The Broncs have certainly had more than their share of Achilles injuries over the years maybe somebody should look at their training regime.
According to legend Achilles was killed by Paris outside Troy. Now the only connection to Paris in the NRL is your Panthers (both start with a P) so maybe they will be the team to beat the Broncs but they don't meet again this year unless in the finals.
So there's a whimsical thought for you Coach, not a stat, just a thought.
CONGRATS to Eugene for picking the Broncos margin and
WELCOME to Islander all the way from Fiji don't worry we won't hold the fact you're a Roosters supporter against you!

Coach Potato's picture

It's ok Mark. Not upset about not much comment, more surprised. I will comment

Sure it's an even comp, but when the bookie says a team is a hot hot favourite in a game, that is usually a pretty good guide, and they are getting it wrong more than half the time.

It's the reason why tipping scores are low for this time of year, but if you are reading between my lines, it's also a big clue to doing better.

Coach Potato's picture

If Panthers lose against Tigers, they will likely lose the next three against Souths , Roosters, and Storm. From there the only prize on offer is the spoon and then extend the 5 year plan another 10.

Declan_S's picture

What's the policy on last minute tip changes?

Coach Potato's picture

Pick any team to stop the Cowboys run at home, and I wonder where you would have had the Sharks a few months ago. I think they would have been last on my list.

Who would know they would beat the Roosters, beat South's, beat the Cowboys, lose to Brisbane but keep them to only 10 points. Is this mob finally going to win their first after 48 years?

newbie from perth's picture

@ Johnny Ray - Dude! That Bonnie Mc Kee thing was hilarious but at the same time, somewhat titillating. Sorry but my feet weren’t tapping ‘cos I was too busy checking the workout routine. This must be borderline to getting an 18+ rating. Reckon the “shooting bra” was awesome as well as the bit at 3:14 and 3:43. I might’ve actually downloaded it if there were some Thai chicks dancing in the background!

I’m with Baggy, you must have far too much free time on your hands. But hey, don’t stop. I always look forward to the “gems” you put up. You’re just like the Roosters - awesome! Thanks brother, it brightened up my day.

On a football related matter, how the hell can you be 18-0 up at halftime, fail to score in the second and still lose it by 6? Sheesh! It reminds me of some observations and comments from some months ago. Hmm…

Coach Potato's picture

Not just that Newbie. Check out how many times the Cowboys have been involved in games like this. Let the first 40 pan out however it wants to, then just make the opposite happen in the second 40. Check the bank accounts of all involved for bets placed on the Sharks at half time. Horrible to think that my own Panthers were involved in the biggest comeback in 107 years from 26-0 up against ... the Cowboys, and that one goes back to the 90s. Watching it live, it looked like a dead-set tank, but how was anyone to prove it.

Didn't quite come off, but 30-0 comeback against the Roosters was more than a bit on the nose.

The comeback against a c!inical Storm in the dying minutes was on the nose.

The comeback against Parra a few weeks ago stunk to high heaven.

I wish Ryan Tandy was still around to tell who was really at the heart of that fix with the Cowboys game.

a's picture

You know that is the 2nd time I have gone and watch the Sharks Cowboys lead 18-0 and have gone on to lose

Coach Potato's picture

Boy oh boy 'a', I just watched the highlights of 2010, Cowboys 19 Sharks 20. There's so so much of that game that's on the nose, first try to Mason, not a defender within 25m ??? Thurston misses a kick from in front to win the game and pretends to be upset (because he doesn't swear after). You are so on the nose Cowboys. Here it is.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0GP0YXA2Xpc

Don't forget to read the article about Cowboys 28 South's 29 in 2008. The journo wants to say what he thinks in his heart, but cant.

http://www.news.com.au/news/more-horror-for-cowboys/story-fna7dq6e-11111...

#CowboysAreOnTheNose

Baggy_Gee's picture

What rubbish was that first try to the dragons.

Coach Potato's picture

Thurston at 1m30 mark of the clip. What chance are you of stopping a try defending 5m inside your own ingoal?

NRL integrity unit. Where for art thou?

Coach Potato's picture

Baggy, didn't need to check the video ref to know it was going to be Shayne Hayne, but yes I did, and yes it was.

#RefsOnTheTake

Coach Potato's picture

Warriors sitting 4th in the streak table on 7.
Will they keep on the roll towards 10?
Sharks of all teams sit in equal 5th on the streak table with Souths on 6.
Will they keep on the roll towards 10 as well?

a's picture

Well when Eels lead Cowboys 24-6 at half time I thought the final score was going to be 36-24 just like full time

Coach Potato's picture

Just woke up. Had the worst dream. All good now though.

a's picture

Cowboys also came back from 22-0 down aganist Canberra to win 40-24

Also came back against Eels 16-0 26-10 to win 40-26

But back in the year before that they lead Tigers 16-0 to lose 26-16

Do you remember any of these games coach?

Coach Potato's picture

No but I believe you. Will make it hard to watch the finals already knowing the winner, but worse is that lots of teams are playing dead. Please NRL investigate. Get to the bottom of it so we can have our game back.

Coach Potato's picture

Thurston is rested as an alibi for the debacle. Broncos had an alibi if Newcastle had won too. Typical of cunning Bennett to decide no, he's not following the script.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Well I'm changing my tipping reference, 4 yr old daughter was cheering for the pink team, Panthers, I corrected her and pointed out we wanted the black team to win. Was told quite straight forwardly that I was wrong. So guess who's doing my tips next week end.

Coach Potato's picture

I love it when I ask my little one which colour team she thinks will win, and she says 'I think the pink will win' and I say, 'No, that's the ref'.

.. I wonder if she's smarter than she's making out.

a's picture

Panthers do not have a good draw coming up

Baggy_Gee's picture

Ohhhh come on Coach, Pinko's don't play Rugby League, Rugby League plays you.

Coach Potato's picture

On the contrary, I would say I'm the least fool around.

The Thinker's picture

Evening football fans

The tipping ladder has been updated - Scott M retains his slender lead. Top scorers this round were Nik and Johnny Ray with 7 from 8.

Until next time

Islander's picture

hey Thinker, I know I'm new and all but don't my tips count as guest tips?

a's picture

No I don't think so Islander I think the thinker choose who was in the guest tipping compertition before the season even started but you might be in the comp next year but

The Thinker's picture

Morning Islander

I'm sure we can slot you in next season. By all means continue to add your comments and tips this season. It's great to have you on board.

All the best

Coach Potato's picture

I have to say, I don't agree with Ennis being able to play for NSW next week. Farah has zero chance of playing so has no right to be named. Ennis to sit out the Sharks game on the weekend, then after fulltime hear that Farah has pulled out of the Blues team and Ennis is in. What a sham. Ennis is suspended for one game, and if that's a State of Origin, so be it. Who cares if Qld did the same with Tuqiri in 02. One crooked act doesn't deserve to be followed by another. NSW need to show that are above that crap, not happy to be made of the same stuff.

Coach Potato's picture

So 16 rounds in, and in games where the roughies are as rough as $3 plus, the roughies are beating the favourites 9 games to 8. Not slight roughie games, big roughie games. More curious is that the rough teams have consistently been at their best when bookies have been offering the most for them to win. That's been hard to comprehend and process as a purist, easier to comprehend if you are familiar with the scent of a rat.

Tipping my share of roughies so far has not been my problem. Just getting the balance right last couple of months has been. Looking from the bottom of the table up, I'm happy with my courage to tip the unlikely. Just lots of the wrong ones. I've known this stat from the start, and picked well early, but lately, ... well crap.

Others may sit comfortably high on the table tipping only favourites, and not worrying about anything else. Good luck to that theory, but a bit mindless for me. Whats the point almost. Remember just picking favourites won't separate you from the group. No risk no reward. Tip away favourite backers, I say. Tip away.

a's picture

I was at the QLD meet and greet today

Baggy_Gee's picture

I'm happy with my progress as well Coach, I thought when the BOYS, started losing at home I'd be nailed to the foot of the table, but they are repaying the faith and I think that I can come midfield and hold my head high for not tipping against them.

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