Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues – Wednesday night – Suncorp Stadium

Maroons

1. Greg Inglis (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
2. Darius Boyd (Brisbane Broncos)
3. Will Chambers (Melbourne Storm)
4. Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos)
5. Dane Gagai (Newcastle Knights)
6. Jonathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)
7. Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)
8. Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)
9. Cameron Smith (c) (Melbourne Storm)
10. Nate Myles (Gold Coast Titans)
11. Aidan Guerra (Sydney Roosters)
12. Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)
13. Corey Parker (Brisbane Broncos)
14. Michael Morgan (North Queensland Cowboys)
15. Josh Papalii (Canberra Raiders)
16. Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)
17. Jacob Lillyman (New Zealand Warriors)

Blues

1. Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons)
2. Will Hopoate (Parramatta Eels)
3. Michael Jennings (Sydney Roosters)
4. Josh Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)
5. Brett Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)
6. Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)
7. Trent Hodkinson (Canterbury Bulldogs)
8. Aaron Woods (Wests Tigers)
9. Michael Ennis (Cronulla Sharks)
10. James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)
11. Beau Scott (Newcastle Knights)
12. Ryan Hoffman (New Zealand Warriors)
13. Paul Gallen (c) Cronulla Sharks
14. Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
15. Boyd Cordner (Sydney Roosters)
16. David Klemmer (Canterbury Bulldogs)
17. Josh Jackson (Canterbury Bulldogs)

Note: team line-ups are subject to change. Rosters will be updated as amendments filter through.

I've been running the slide rule over recent State of Origin encounters, and something jumped out at me. I wanted to look at games played at this venue, but I also wanted to put a line through some of those games. I excluded games at Suncorp for two reasons:

1. If it was Game One of the series (which is almost always low-scoring and tight); and
2. If the game was a dead rubber

So, in a nutshell, my sample group is games where the series is alive and its either Game Two or Game Three....just like this game on Wednesday. That left me with a sample size of seven games during the last ten years, and in those seven games Queensland won them all. More often than not the victories were convincing - the Maroons racked up 208 points in those seven games while conceding only 90. They scored 30 points or more on five occasions, and on four occasions restricted their opponents to six points or less. Now some will say I've chosen this group of games to give me the result I wanted to get...and they may be right, but the numbers don't lie. NSW have won just two games at Suncorp since 2006, and both were dead rubber contests. This venue means something to Queensland footballers, and when the game also means something the combination is hard to beat. The Blues have a genuine advantage in the forwards, and a significant size advantage on the bench. The Queensland pack needs to lift, but I'm banking on the home crowd doing just that - it's bigger than the Blues bench. Inglis shifts to fullback for Billy Slater, where (potentially) a performance for the ages awaits us. If this game opens up and he finds his mojo he'll run for 200+ metres on Wednesday. Cronk returns from injury and Queensland will be better for it. Cameron Smith will be keen to put a difficult week behind him - luckily for him he'll be playing in front of a friendly audience. Clearly the gap between the two sides has narrowed, but there are quite a number of players I'd be happy to tag as champions pulling on boots on Wednesday night...and they're all playing for the home side.

Verdict : QLD 25 - NSW 18

First try scorer: Greg Inglis

Man of the Match: Greg Inglis