Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Thursday night – Allianz Stadium
The Panthers have had the better of the Chooks in recent seasons, but the tricolours won't get many better opportunities than this to knock off the reigning premiers. The absence of Nathan Cleary has been well-noted, but they'll also be without two of their key kiwi enforcers in Fisher-Harris and Sorensen. Lindsay Smith starts at prop and Mavrik Geyer (whose Panthers heritage runs in the family) gets a run off the bench. The Chooks have a few enforcers of their own missing, with former Panther Leniu suspended and Lindsay Collins out with a hamstring issue. Terrell May starts at prop, and it's only a matter of time before he's doing that every week. Importantly for the home side, Sam Walker has passed his concussion protocols and Luke Keary returns from his 11-day stand-down. With their inclusions, the Roosters backline looks first class from numbers one through to seven, and the team that racked up 48 points against the Bunnies last week should be feeling optimistic about their chances. That they're playing at home is a big plus too.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result – Panthers 22 defeated Roosters 16
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Accor Stadium
The Rabbitohs find themselves in an uncomfortable and unusual position (for them) - last on the NRL ladder and without a win on the board. The cast and crew on the S.S. Rabbitoh will be feeling the pressure, none moreso than the captain of the ship Jason Demetriou. Rumours would suggest he has a month to steady the ship, and there's an elder statesman of the game on the Redcliffe Peninsula who hasn't been shy about letting everyone know he wants a coaching gig in 2025. It should be noted that the Bunnies have had a tough start to the draw this season, with three games against sides that look like top eight contenders this season. The Bulldogs had their first win of the year last week. I can't question the scoreline (32-0), but I am doubting the class of their opposition. They'll take confidence from the result though, and should continue to improve. Note that Josh Addo-Carr has been named on the extended bench, but is not likely to return. I can't tip them confidently, but I'm leaning slightly to the Rabbitohs in what should be a genuine contest.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4
Result – Rabbitohs 20 defeated Bulldogs 16
Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
The Rabbitohs haven't won a game, and the Cowboys haven't lost a game. In fact, the Cowboys are the only undefeated team left in the competition. A fair crowd are likely to show up on Good Friday - hopefully the figure has a 4 in front of it. There'd be a few thousand more if Reece Walsh were available, who has been offered a multi-year, multi-million dollar deal to extend his contract at the club. We wait for news on that front. Sitting alongside Walsh in the casualty ward are Haas and Piakura, which takes plenty of puff out of the Broncos engine room. In better news, Reynolds has been named, and his general kicking game will be of utmost importance. If the Broncos win, it's on the back of Reynolds and his capacity to manage field position and the pace of the game. This is the Cowboys toughest test of the season thus far, but I like the look of their forwards and their bench forwards in this contest. They'll have fresher legs in the last 30 minutes and I think they can run over the top of the home team when it matters most. For those that like a flutter - Tom Deardon is $4.25 to score a try in this game. He's scored one every week so far, and that looks generous to me (disclaimer: not investment advice/gamble responsibly).
Verdict – Cowboys by 7
Result – Broncos 38 defeated Cowboys 12
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternon – WIN Stadium
If we put an asterisk against the round one performance against the Titans, and focus on the last fortnight, the Dragons have conceded 84 points. On Saturday afternoon they take on a team that has had no trouble scoring points (81 across three games). Importantly, the Sea Eagles have scored those points against very good teams. They've named the same line-up that went close against the Eels last weekend, and on form they look the winner here. Garrick needs two points to rack up a career tally of 1000. He could score 20 on Saturday.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 14
Result – Dragons 20 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Gold Coast Titans vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium
Des Halser might be having second thoughts. Things seem dire for the glitter club and the season ending injury to their club captain is a bitter blow. Some positives to note though - with Jayden Campbell returning at fullback on Saturday night, and David Fifita close to a recall. Perhaps not this week, but soon. The Dolphins were awesome against the Dragons in round two with a 38-0 drubbing. At first glance you'd say a win like that over the Dragons may not mean that much, until you realise the Dragons beat the Titans 28-4 in round one. Fins up...and up...and up.
Verdict – Dolphins by 16
Result – Dolphins 30 defeated Titans 14
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Go Media Stadium
The bad news for the Warriors is that they have had to call on their third-choice fullback for this game. The good news is that their third-choice fullback won the Dally M medal playing in this position not so long ago. He'll be okay. The Warriors finally got their first win of the season out of the way after some competitive losses. Note that the win last week was against a team that comfortably beat the Knights in round one at Newcastle. If you take a look at the quality of the list of reserves for the Warriors you can see how much depth this team has at the moment. The Knights haven't won a game in New Zealand since 2019. They won't go down without a fight but I can't tip them.
Verdict – Warriors by 8
Result – Warriors 20 defeated Knights 12
Cronulla Sharks vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – PointsBet Stadium
I'm missing somethere here. The Sharks are a very warm favourite on Sunday, even after the Tigers tore them to pieces last week. They've lost Finucane, Rudolf and Hunt from their forward pack and have had to resort to naming Talakai in the second row. The Raiders pack is so strong that Origin representative Corey Hursburgh and Emre Guler are off playing NSW Cup this weekend. Their only loss for the season was a competitive effort against the Warriors in New Zealand. What am I missing?
Verdict – Raiders by 4
Result – Sharks 36 defeated Raiders 22
Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers – Monday afternoon – CommBank Stadium
The Tigers were given a hard time because the players needed a lyric sheet to sing the team song - that seems a bit unfair to me, given Benji had only just finished writing it in the car park before the game. They'll take confidence out of the dominant win against the Sharks and are a team that will continue to improve. The NRL is more fun when the Tigers are playing well, and I hope it continues. After watching the Eels v Sea Eagles match intently last weekend I finally realised who Mitch Moses reminds me of. He looks like one of those inflatable balloon guys you see waving their arms madly out of the front of used car yards. Much of the arm-waving on Easter Monday will be the responsibility of Clinton Gutherson. Gutherson isn't shy when it comes to the arm-flapping, but there's only one of him. The Moses kicking game, and his protesting arms, will be missed. Blaize Talagi moves from the centre to the halves. He does remind me of a young Brad Fittler, and I suspect the excitement around him as a prospect is appropriate. He could be anything. He could be Fittler. The same could be said for Lachlan Galvin - Benji told us he was ready for first grade and Benji was right. Perhaps he can coach after all. This could end up being the game of the round, and I'm leaning to the Eels in what I think I will be an entertaining contest.
Verdict – Eels by 2
Result – Tigers 17 defeated Eels 16
Wally Lewis - round four selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- Roosters vs PANTHERS
- RABBITOHS vs Bulldogs
- Broncos vs COWBOYS
- Dragons vs SEA EAGLES
- Titans vs DOLPHINS
- WARRIORS vs Knights
- SHARKS vs Raiders
- EELS vs Tigers
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round three.
I gave the Tigers a hope but wasn't brave enough to tip them - congrats to the handful of us that were. That was the game that caught most of us out. Results for the round were wide-ranging, with a few of us picking up 7 from 8. manyana and TheDon sit atop the leaderboard after three rounds on 18 points. Interestingly, if you just picked the home teams in every game you'd be on 19 points right now. As always, if you notice any issues with the scoring just let me know and I will look into it.
I'll have my previews and selections published by Wednesday this week. For those of you going away over the Easter period...have a terrific break. If you need to get tips in early because you're camping in the wilderness or dodging the dingoes on Fraser Island, feel free to post tips in the comments section and I can sort it out from there. I'll be dragging Mrs Thinker and the mini-thinkers over to North Stradbroke Island - fingers crossed I can find internet access, a cold beer, and a few whiting while I'm there.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
I'm hearing Nathan Cleary might be out for a month with a hamstring issue.
Submitted by Buzz105 on
yep its confirmed
Submitted by Mary S on
I see Mitchell Moses is out for 6-8 weeks too, with a fractured ankle.
Submitted by bradapple on
Are we playing the a game this year? I miss it lol.
Submitted by Buzz105 on
Nathan Cleary: 2-4 weeks, Mitchell Moses: 8-12 weeks, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui: season, Reece Walsh: 4 weeks, Bryce Cartwright: potentially 4-6 weeks, Lindsay Collins: 2-4 weeks, Sandon Smith: 4 weeks, Scott Sorensen: 4-6 weeks, Brendan Piakura: TBC
Submitted by The Thinker on
@ bradapple
If 'a' is keen there is still time. He might be too busy - it does take a bit of effort to keep on top of everything.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
A lot of big names injured! And it is only 3 rounds down 😨
Submitted by Dragons-fanboy on
Hey Thinker,
Gotta be honest and a fair player, I got 5 out of 8 last year week as I got Dragons, Storm and Sharks wrong
Cheers!
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Dragons-fanboy
Your honesty (as always) is noted on the record. Thanks for letting me know...I really appreciate it, and I'm sure others do also.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by tigerholic on
Thinker, Thinker, Thinker
How could you not tip the Mighty Tigers after their rousing performance against the Sharks.
Surely the Tigers have earned some well deserved respect. I for one will tip them this week.
Hope you are well.
Tiger
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Tigerholic
I was (holds thumb and index finger close together) this close. I don't want to talk anyone out of them. Huge chance.
I hope all is well with you, too.
Tigers vs Dolphins for Magic Round this year - should be a cracker.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
Welcome to Round 4. Another few weeks and we should start to get an idea of what’s what as far as genuine contenders go I reckon. Two standouts for me this week are the Roosters and Panthers game and the Broncos and Cowboys game. Should be entertaining ones to watch. Have a great Easter long weekend y’all. Stay safe and not too many hot cross buns and chocolate. For those at risk, make sure you check your glucose levels 😁. Lastly, “taut lines” Boss! OK, let’s do this thing …
Roosters vs. Panthers @ Allianz
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Verdict: The Roosters were very impressive last week but the Panthers are a completely different proposition here. They’re a quality side and this should be an absolute cracker. Not really sure why the Roosters are ahead in the rankings and how they are favourites though. Having said that, and with no Cleary or Sorensen, I’m gonna go out on a limb and tip my BBB. Roosters by 6. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs @ Accor
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
Verdict: Things are looking grim for the Rabbitohs. They were woeful last week against the Roosters. The Bulldogs were pretty good but the Titans were average. I have a feeling the Rabbitohs will break the drought as they are a much better side than what we’ve seen so far. Rabbitohs by 4.
Broncos vs. Cowboys @ Suncorp
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
Verdict: The Broncos have Reynolds back but will be missing Reece Walsh and Payne Haas (again). I’m not confident they’ll be able to get back in the groove over a Cowboys side who are humming along, albeit not in spectacular fashion. This is a tough one. Not sure this makes any sense at all but I’ll go the Broncos by 6.
Dragons vs. Manly @ WIN
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
Verdict: The Dragons look good at times but no confidence they can get over a classy Manly side looking to “bounce back” after last week’s result. Manly by 12.
Titans vs. Dolphins @ Cbus
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins
Verdict: The Titans aren’t terrible but they’re not that flash either. The Dolphins are a better side and they’re coming off the bye. Dolphins by 10.
Warriors vs. Knights @ Go Media (Mt Smart)
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors
Verdict: This should be another good one and equally hard to pick. Both had good wins last week and both were impressive for different reasons. Theoretically this could go either way. Solely because they’re at home, I’m going the Warriors by 4.
Sharks vs. Raiders @ Shark Park
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Sharks
Verdict: The Sharks were basically garbage last week. No disrespect to the Tigers but that should’ve been an easy 2 points in the bank. The Raiders were tough in their loss to the Warriors and they’ll make it very hard for the Sharks. What concerns me is the Sharks have lost Finucane, Rudolf and Hunt. That and Rapana’s 200th is giving me an eerie feeling. Raiders by 6.
Eels vs. Tigers @ CommBank
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels
Verdict: I really liked the way the Eels went about their job last week, and especially against class opposition. The Tigers were very, very good in their upset win over the Sharks last week and based on that form, the Tigers might just give this one a shake. Do I think they can get up in this one? No, unfortunately I don’t. Yeah, I know Moses will be missing but I’m on the Eels by 10.
Bye = Storm
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Smooth grooves from Newbie’s ancient past. Ooh yeah…
https://youtu.be/JV7oIrjUnxo
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by The Thinker on
Interesting stat I've just stumbled across - in the last 17 games Luai has played for the Panthers without Nathan Cleary...one loss.
They don't lose very often I suppose, but still.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Tigerholic it's been 732 days since you tipped the Tigers 🐅 I for one will watching for a late change to the eels by your goodself.
Submitted by Mary S on
He will probably leave it there now Rocket, just to show you!!
We'll see!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Fittler sucks on
Forgot to put tips in can I have wally’s tips please
Submitted by Mary S on
Check above the comments Fittler -You were the first to have your tips in this week!!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by No Woman No Try on
Hi Thinker,
Tipping link isn't up.
My winners for Round 4,
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Dolphins
Warriors
Raiders
Eels
Cheers,
No Woman No Try
Submitted by MGM on
Link for tipping is not there Thinker
Please give me the following for round 4 -
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Dolphins
Warriors
Raiders
Eels
.
Thanks
Submitted by MGM on
Within the first 2 mins Panthers have already gotten away with a forward pass in their own in-goal .... new linesman please !
Submitted by tigerholic on
Morning All
The Panthers are protected, how could the Roosters beat 14 on 13 all night.
That obstruction rule was pathetic.
Tiger
Submitted by Majordad on
Hi Thinker,,,
Could not get my tips on before game one,,could not find the tipping after logging in,,,well before kick off,,, my tips are Bulldogs, Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Warriors, Canberra and Els,,Thanks Everyone enjoy the easter break,,,,,
Submitted by The Thinker on
@No Woman No Try
I've added your tips now.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
@MGM
I've added your round four tips now.
I thought the Roosters coach showed nice restraint in the press conference after the game.
Enjoy the Easter break
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Majordad
Apologies for the issues with the tipping form. The issue is caused by daylight saving, and the form shuts down an hour early. It is annoying, I know.
If you ever can't find the tipping form, feel free to add your tips in the comments as you have done.
I've added yours for you now.
All the best, and enjoy the break over Easter.
The Thinker
Submitted by Footy chick on
Hi Thinker
You didn't get many right this round, but every game you did get right you picked the exact margin too.
Well done
xx