2015 VRC Derby
1. LIZARD ISLAND (Trainers: P Hyland - Jockey: B Shinn)
2. SHARDS (Trainer: J O'Shea - Jockey: H Bowman)
3. KIA ORA KOUTOU (Trainer: A Durrant - Jockey: J Azzopardi)
4. AYERS ROCK (Trainer: S Mathrick - Jockey: D Gauci)
5. MAN OF CHOICE (Trainer: L Price - Jockey: S Clipperton)
6. EXTRA CHOICE (Trainers: D Hayes and T Dabernig - Jockey: B Melham)
7. TARZINO (Trainer: M Price - Jockey: C Newitt)
8. GET THE PICTURE (Trainer: S Webb - Jockey: D Oliver)
9. ETYMOLOGY (Trainer: J O’Shea - Jockey: J McDonald)
10. JADEER (Trainer: Team Hawkes - Jockey: D Dunn)
11. PALACE TYCOON (Trainer: P Moody - Jockey: D Stackhouse)
12. SCADDEN'S RUN (Trainer: F Stockdale - Jockey: N Rawiller)
13. PAY UP BRO (Trainer: J Moloney - Jockey: B Avdulla)
14. COLONEL CLUSTER (Trainer: P Stokes - Jockey: C Williams)
15. RED ALTO (Trainer: B Stanley - Jockey: O Bosson)
16. IRON BOSS (Trainer: M Kavanagh - Jockey: T Berry)
17(e). BULLISH STOCK (Trainers: D Hayes and T Dabernig ; Jockey: D Lane)
Preview and selections
The clock doesn't lie, and times enthusiasts should take note that Tarzino ran faster final sectionals than Winx at the Cox Plate meeting. He also ran that time in a part of the track where few travelled well. His last start performance had Derby stamped all over it, but at $2.50 or thereabouts I'm prepared to take it on. I think we'll get as much $3.00 on the day, so if you're keen I would urge you to keep your wallet in your pocket until the big day. Favourites haven't had a great record in this race in recent years, and while everything about his performances to this point suggest he's the winner, I have to find something else to beat him home.
I was taken with the performance of Get the Picture the week prior - a fast finishing third behind the filly Sacred Eye at Caulfield. The Flemington track should suit, he looks like he'll run the trip and he has the services of the 2014 Derby winning jockey on board in Damien Oliver. At $3.60 the place it looks a better bet to me than $2.50 the win for the favourite.
If Tarzino doesn't win he's not likely to lose by much, so he slots in for second. He does look like he's out of the box but everyone said that about Hampton Court in 2014 and It's a Dundeel in 2012. The testing material.
Etymology comes through the same race as Get the Picture and was finishing well at the concluding stages. The jockey change (Bowman was set to ride, but he's switched to Shards from the same stable) has me scratching my head a little. If Bowman sticks I'd probably have him on top.
Lizard Island has been a consistent performer and also comes through that Sacred Eye race. If the form from that race doesn't hold up I'm in a lot of trouble...but I think it will.
1st - 8. Get the Picture
2nd - 7. Tarzino
3rd - 9. Etymology
4th - 1. Lizard Island
Thinker bets - week three
- The Thinker is still thinkering....stay tuned
* William Hill are offering a range of betting promotions for VRC Derby Day and the remainder of the Flemington Spring Carnival. Here's a link to all the offers and details for those that are interested:
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Spring Carnival results - The Thinker
Cumulative return - $200 loss.
Comments
Submitted by chooks on
man I love this day
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Chooks, we all know trainers, yes, and god forbid, even jockeys, use the Caulfield Cup as a warm up.
Let's face facts though. It is against the spirit of the sport to enter a race with no intention of winning. Even more against the spirit of the sport is for a jockey to physically stop a horse from winning. Stewards cleared Purton this time, but surely they won't swallow his story if it happens yet again. You don't need much googling to see the amount of times this guy has had his rides queried over the years.
..and yes, I think a potential $5M payout on the Caulfield Cup was fairly significant money.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/controversy-over-melbourne...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The three races to pick the winners of, in this week's edition of ...
Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series
The Hotham Handicap/The Dalgety/The Lexus Stakes (2 1/2 km)
2:25 PM - Flemington Race 5
1. Junoob (10) B Shinn 58.5 KG
2. Hawkspur (12) J Bowman 57 KG
3. Excess Knowledge (9) D Dunn 56.5 KG
4. Elhaame (4) B Rawiller 56 KG
5. Chance To Dance (11) Craig Williams 55.5 KG
6.. Havana Cooler (3) J B Mc Donald 55.5 KG
7. Ruling Dynasty (1) Tommy Berry 54.5 KG
8. Bohemian Lily (5) J A Cassidy 54 KG
9. Thunder Lady (7) Chris Parnham 54 KG
10. Ethiopia (6) Patrick Moloney 54 KG
11. Manalapan (13) L Currie 54 KG
12. Zanteca (8) Damian Lane 54 KG
13. High Midnight (2) S Clipperton 54 KG
LKS Mackinnon Stakes
3:05 PM - Flemington Race 6 (2km)
1. Fawkner (15) D Oliver 59 KG
2. Happy Trails (6) D Dunn 59 KG
3. Extra Zero (10) M J Walker 59 KG
4. Pornichet (4) J A Cassidy 59 KG
5. Contributer (7) J B Mc Donald 59 KG
6. Weary (13) G Schofield 59 KG
7. Gailo Chop (5) B Melham 59 KG
8. Index Linked (11) B Shinn 59 KG
9. Magic Hurricane (1) O P Bosson 59 KG
10. Ecuador (3) Tommy Berry 59 KG
11. Magic Artist (2) B Avdulla 59 KG
12. Flamingo Star (9) J Bowman 59 KG
13. Stratum Star (14) Craig Williams 58 KG
14. Rising Romance (12) Damian Lane 57 KG
15. Set Square (8) L Currie 56 KG
AAMI VRC Derby (2 1/2km)
3:50 PM - FLEMINGTON Race 7
1. LIZARD ISLAND (3) B SHINN 55.5 KG
2. SHARDS (11) J BOWMAN 55.5 KG
3. KIA ORA KOUTOU (1) JOSEPH AZZOPARDI 55.5 KG
4. AYERS ROCK (12) D GAUCI 55.5 KG
5. MAN OF CHOICE (16) S CLIPPERTON 55.5 KG
6. EXTRA CHOICE (17) B MELHAM 55.5 KG
7. TARZINO (10) C NEWITT 55.5 KG
8. GET THE PICTURE (5) D OLIVER 55.5 KG
9. ETYMOLOGY (9) J B MC DONALD 55.5 KG
10. JADEER (4) D DUNN 55.5 KG
11. PALACE TYCOON (7) D W STACKHOUSE 55.5 KG
12. SCADDEN'S RUN (8) J A CASSIDY 55.5 KG
13. PAY UP BRO (15) B AVDULLA 55.5 KG
14. COLONEL CUSTER (14) CRAIG WILLIAMS 55.5 KG
15. RED ALTO (2) O P BOSSON 55.5 KG
16. IRON BOSS (6) TOMMY BERRY 55.5 KG
17. BULLISH STOCK (13) DAMIAN LANE 55.5 KG
Submitted by Coach Potato on
If we all bet 50 each way on the Caulfield Cup, and 25 each way on Mooney Valley Cup and Cox Plate, here is what it would show based on Qld TAB prices.
Chooks $580 dividend / $380 profit
A $505 dividend / $305 profit
Newbie $350 dividend / $150 profit
Thinker $180 dividend / $20 loss
Scott M $127.50 dividend / $72.50 loss
Footy Chick $77.50 dividend / $122.50 loss
Coach Potato $0000 dividend /$200 loss
Remember: If not for losers, there's be no winners.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tips for the Coach Potato tipping comp:
Elhaame
Happy Trails
Get the Picture
Thanks Coach
Submitted by chooks on
Havana Cooler
Contributer
Tarzino (best bet anywhere)
cheers Coach
Submitted by a on
Here are my picks
Note I am doing races 1 -9 but only listen to 5, 6 and 7 okay
Race 1
1st Basset
2nd Montauk
3rd Mahuta
Roghie He's Our Rokkii
Race 2
1st Ambience
2nd Dawnie Perfect
3rd My Poppette
Roughie Muzyka
Race 3
1st Disposition
2nd Artlee
3rd Good Project
Roughie Charmed Harmony
Race 4
1st Exosphere
2nd Keen Array
3rd Mogador
Roughie Hellbent
Race 5
1st Excess Knowledge
2nd Havana Cooler
3rd Ruling Dynasty
Roughie Elhaame
Race 6
1st Magic Hurricane
2nd Stratum Star
3rd Pornichet
Roughie Flamingo Star
Race 7
1st Tarzino
2nd Kia Ora Koutou
3rd Extra Choice
Roughie Get The Picture
Race 8
1st Stay With Me
2nd Royal Descent
3rd Azkadellia
Roughie May's Dream
Race 9
1st Under The Louvre
2nd Delectation
3rd Dothraki
Roughie Bring Me The Maid
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Colic, the bookies illness of choice has bagged them another several million as another Caulfield Cup winner bites Melbourne Cup dust.
http://m.couriermail.com.au/sport/superracing/melbourne-cup-2015-colic-h...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No holds barred this week. Everyone's imaginary $100 this week will be split $25 to win on the Lexus, $25 to win on the Mackinnon, and $50 to win on the Derby. Then Tuesday $100 to win on your pick.
Submitted by a on
Wow coach that is good stats their
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Flemington Race 5 No. 10 Ethiopia
Flemington Race 6 No. 7 Gailo Chop
Flemington Race 7 No. 13 Pay Up Bro
Submitted by The Thinker on
Chooks,
Just letting you know (since you seem keen on Tarzino). William Hill are offering $3.60 on Saturday (maximum bet - $50). Not sure if you have an account with them but here is the link (just click on Premium Price in the left hand navigation). Good luck (and gamble responsibly):
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Submitted by chooks on
Big thanks Thinker...I will oblige...lol
gamble responsibly? on Derby day.....lol
Submitted by Footy chick on
Hello boys
Excess Knowledge
Magic Hurricane
Etymology
Good luck ;-)
Submitted by Footy chick on
Magic Hurricane scratched
Make that Happy Trails
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Chick, your defintely on the ba...
Err nothing.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So another favourite scratched from a big race and the bookies bag the lot.
Fame Game, shortest Melbourne Cup favourite in decades they say. Personally, I'd give it 100/1 to make the starters gate.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It really is WWF this sport is it not?
... four days ago
http://www.racingandsports.com.au/en/racing/fawkner-magic-hurricane-join...
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
OK so we’re at the penultimate stage of proceedings here. The pressure’s on! Well actually there’s no pressure on Newbie if he’s not parting with the “folding stuff” this week. I reckon my horse tipping is heading the same way as my footy tipping did this year. That is, down the gurgler! After last week I think I’ll invest the few paltry dollars I have on Arsenal to win against Swansea at the $1.75. Easy money some might say. Let’s see if it is.
OK, let’s get into it …
Lexus Stakes
4. ELHAAME
Yeah I know it’s an overseas horse and it’s not raced in Australia yet but just can’t see anything else in this race that’s half decent causing any problems. This one normally carries about 60kgs but only has 56 in the Lexus. It’s a class act and has a win range of 2000-2320 so distance will be fine. Just hope Brad Rawiller has enough of an understanding about how this one races to boot it home. Currently showing about $7.50 Fixed on the WA TAB. Great minds think alike Thinker?
Mackinnon Stakes
7. GAILO CHOP
Another overseas horse here but at least it’s had a start on Australian soil. I know he was about 12 lens away from Winx in last week’s Cox Plate but he overraced in the early and middle stages and I’m prepared to forgive him on that run. His win range is 1600-2100 and his actual win percentage is a healthy 54%. With Ben Melham onboard I’m more than happy to tip Gailo Chop here, especially at around the $12 mark. Great minds think alike Coach?
VRC Derby
3. KIA ORA KOUTOU
A reliable source informs me that “kia ora koutou” roughly translates to “hello everybody”. Can one of our Kiwi brothers or sisters confirm or deny please? Anyway, I reckon this fella just might upset Tarzino’s applecart. 4 runs for 4 wins. Win range 1400-2200. $184,000 prizemoney versus $96,000 for Tarzino. I get the impression Tarzino is a bit of a “let’s sit back here for a while and have a mad dash for the line” sort of horse. A true sprinter I reckon. He’s never won past 1600 so can he go the extra distance? I think he might be vulnerable here. In Kia Ora Koutou’s last 3 races he’s “shifted out” and won. Followed that with “laying out” at the turn and winning. Last time he “shied at the crossing”, got “inconvenienced” at the 1600 and won again. Plus he’s a West Aussie horse from little ol’ Perth. Good enough for me. Interesting to note that on the WA TAB he’s currently $3.10 Tote favourite as opposed to $6.10 for Tarzino. But then again, that can and will definitely change before the gates open tomorrow. Nah, I’ll stick with Kia Ora Koutou. Great minds think alike anyone else?
OK, if you’re having a bet, spend wisely and best of luck. Cheers.
Disclaimer : Under no circumstances should the reader invest any money whatsoever on the selections listed above. They are merely the thoughts of a demented wannabe who assumes he knows more than he does.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Scott M. Any late mail?
Submitted by scott m on
Havana Cooler
Happy Trails
Tarzino
Submitted by Coach Potato on
THE THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES
Chooks..........................54
a.......................................47
Footy Chick.................38
Newbie from Perth..37
Thinker.........................36
Scott M.........................36
Coach Potato.............20
How telling. I'm the only one that can't catch the leader. The rest are between 2 1/4 and 6 lengths from the lead.
Triple points for the Cup mean Footy Chick, Newbie, Thinker and Scott on just need a horse that finishes 6 places ahead of Chooks to beat him home. 'a' needing a horse that finishes just 3 places ahead of Chooks. That's apart from worrying about each other.
We're in for an exciting finish. I'm not in the photo, but I'll be a keen spectator.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
$300 imaginary outlay
* $50 each way Caulfield Cup
--------------------------
* $25 each way Mooney Valley Cup
* $25 each way Cox Plate
-------------------------
* $25 win Lexus Stakes
* $25 win McKinnon Stakes
* $50 win VRC Derby
---------------------
* $100 win Melbourne Cup
Imaginary results so far (based on Qld TAB)
a - Dividends $755 Profit $455
Chooks - Dividends $720 Profit $420
Newbie - Dividends $550 Profit $250
Scott M - Dividends $267.50 Loss $32.50
Coach Potato - Dividends $200 Loss $100
Footy Chick - Dividends $187.50 Loss $112.50
Thinker - Dividends $180 Loss $120
3 out of the 7 going great guns, and not bad overall you gotta say.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Melbourne Cup barrier draw at 6:30pm
Will post the field shortly afterwards.
Then it's set the alarm to cheer on the Wallabies in the morning - eve earlier for stuck in the mud Qlders. I'm not so much a ra-ra fan, as seeing an Aussie team beat a Kiwi team. Also good to see if Israel has an influence on the game. Go Wallabies!!
Submitted by a on
Going to be an instresting finish
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No Horse Trainer Weight Barrier
1 SNOW SKY Sir Michael Stoute 58kg 16
2 CRITERION David Hayes & Tom Dabernig 57.5kg 4
3 FAME GAME Yoshitada Munakata 57kg 12
4 OUR IVANHOWE Lee & Anthony Freedman 56kg 22
5 BIG ORANGE Michael Bell 55.5kg 23
6 HARTNELL John O’Shea 55.5kg 17
7 HOKKO BRAVE Yasutoshi Matsunaga 55.5kg 20
8 MAX DYNAMITE William Mullins 55kg 2
9 RED CADEAUX Ed Dunlop 55kg 8
10 TRIP TO PARIS Ed Dunlop 55kg 14
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN Chris Waller 54.5kg 6
12 SKY HUNTER Saeed Bin Suroor 54kg 7
13 THE OFFER Gai Waterhouse 54kg 13
14 GRAND MARSHAL Chris Waller 53.5kg 15
15 PREFERMENT Chris Waller 53.5kg 11
16 QUEST FOR MORE Roger Charlton 53.5kg 21
17 ALMOONQITH David Hayes & Tom Dabernig 53kg 10
18 KINGFISHER Aidan O’Brien 53kg 9
19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE Darren Weir 53kg 1
20 BONDI BEACH Aidan O’Brien 52.5kg 18
21 SERTORIUS Jamie Edwards 52.5kg 5
22 THE UNITED STATES Robert Hickmott 52.5kg 3
23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Gai Waterhouse 51kg 24
24 GUST OF WIND John Sargent 51kg 19
Submitted by Coach Potato on
It's Cup eve "eve" - and no Cup page to write on. Don't drop the ball a-la Ben Hunt now, Thinker.