Round seventeen selections

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Dragons fans: "The Dragons have finally got their ship in order and organised a coach for next season and beyond, and now they can just get on with things."

Ben Hunt: "Hold my beer."

The people of New South Wales would eat their own young, so it won't surprise me if Ben Hunt gets booed at Wollongong on Friday night. He's been named to back up from a late night in Brisbane on Wednesday, and he's already told the club he'd rather not be there, but let's just wait and see shall we. While I understand the frustrations of the Dragons fans, they should remember that he has been a shining light for this club in recent years. They haven't won many games of late, but when they do, it's usually because Hunt has dragged them over the line. He finished 3rd in the 2022 Dally M Awards (and 10th in 2021), with tallies that were a long way in front of the next best Dragon. He also wasn't at the infamous barbecue. To this outsider, it doesn't look like Ben Hunt is the problem the Dragons need to fix. Without Hunt, the next most senior leader in that squad is Jack De Belin, who will play his 200th game on Friday night. Jack was cleared of serious sexual assault charges so he's free to move on with his life of course. His partner was very pregnant at the time, so to this outsider, he doesn't strike me as the person with the leadership qualities to pull the Dragons out of the mire. Perhaps I'm wrong. I am an outsider after all. Meanwhile the Warriors, who sacrificed plenty through the COVID years while the Dragons had a barbecue, are playing attractive football and winning games (and hearts). Often the Warriors struggle to win games in Australia, but this season they've picked up away wins over the Cowboys, Sharks, Bulldogs and Raiders. They should win this, and I expect they'll be playing finals football in 2023.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result – Warriors 48 defeated Dragons 18

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday afternoon – Sunshine Coast Stadium

In round 15 the Sea Eagles beat the Dolphins 58 to 18. In round 16 the Eels beat the Sea Eagles 34 to 4. Now the Eels play the Dolphins and, based on those form lines, the Eels should win by about 80. They won't of course, nothing like it, but I do expect the Eels to prevail. I noted that Tabuai-Fidow was a bit proppy from time to time on Wednesday night, so I'm slightly concerned he might be a late withdrawal on Saturday.

Verdict – Eels by 14

Result – Eels 48 defeated Dolphins 20

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – BlueBet Stadium

The Panthers have named all five of their Origin players, including Luai who was fined but not suspended for his head butt on Wednesday - he should probably get some lessons in 'what not to do on social media', but I'll let that pass for now. They have also named Moses Leota, who was on personal leave last week. For the Knights, Tyson Frizell will back up from Wednesday also. These sides met in round seven in Newcastle, where the Panthers prevailed by a solitary point. It wasn't the Panthers best performance, but they still did enough to win. It's fair to say they've been a better side since then. Couple that with home ground advantage, and you'd expect the Panthers to get the points on Saturday.

Verdict – Panthers by 8

Result – Panthers 20 defeated Knights 12

Melbourne Storm vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – AAMI Park

The Storm have named their three Origin players (Munster, Grant, Coates) and they also welcome back Christian Welch and Justin Olam this week. That's some handy firepower to bring into a team that won 28-6 away from home last week. For the Sea Eagles, they face another season without their most dynamic player. A lot of responsibility rests on the shoulders of Daly Cherry-Evans, who has had a bit to do already this week. It's a lot to ask, and this is a bridge too far.

Verdict – Storm by 10

Result – Storm 24 defeated Sea Eagles 6

Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

Well this game changed complexion quickly, with the dismissal of Titans coach Holbrook and the announcement of his replacement (Des Hasler). Some respect to the Titans for getting all this done without it being a media circus (take note Dragons), and commiserations to Holbrook, who has improved the Titans roster considerably on his watch. Plenty of players backing up (or not backing up) from Wednesday night for this, so keep an eye out for team changes. For all but Payne Haas, the venue will bring happy memories for those that played here in Origin game two. In round seven these sides met on the Gold Coast where the Titans scored their traditional 26 points but conceded 43. In their last two outings the Titans have scored 28 points, so some gradual improvement there. They can clearly score points, but defence remains the issue. Plenty of points on Sunday afternoon folks.

Verdict – Broncos by 16

Result – Titans 18 defeated Broncos 12

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – Accor Stadium

The game that has had me scratching my over-sized novelty head more than ever other game this round. The Cowboys have found some form and their Origin quartet should be in fine spirits this week. I've ended up siding with the Bunnies, when I realised that the last two wins for the Cowboys were at home, and their performances on the road have been pretty darn ordinary. Still no sign of Mitchell in the Rabbitohs line-up, but there were whispers he might play in this. One more week perhaps.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result – Cowboys 31 defeated Rabbitohs 6

Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday night – Allianz Stadium

A much-needed win for the Chooks last week against the Knights, and they did it without Tedesco or Collins - both are likely to play on Sunday. Hudson Young is the only Raider backing up from Origin, and he's expected to back up also. The rest of the Raiders have had a bye week and should be feeling refreshed. Generally speaking, teams coming off the bye perform well. I'm not concerned about the Raiders playing away from home either - they've won their last four games on the road, and away scalps have included the Broncos and the Rabbitohs. I am concerned about the Roosters attack. In their last ten outings they've scored 20 or more points on just three occasions. Those games were against the 15th placed Dragons (twice) and the 16th placed Bulldogs. They've scored less points this season than any other team. It could all magically click into gear one day and they'll rack up 40, but it's hard to tip them against a genuine top eight side until you've seen it happen.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

Result – Raiders 20 defeated Roosters 18

Wally Lewis - round seventeen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Dragons vs WARRIORS
  • DOLPHNS vs Eels
  • PANTHERS vs Knights
  • STORM vs Sea Eagles
  • BRONCOS vs Titans
  • RABBITOHS vs Cowboys
  • ROOSTERS vs Raiders

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 16. Only the five games but just three of us managed to find all the winners - congrats to Shotfromthehip, scott m and the original Johnny Awesome (one of the best boxers to ever come out of the Central West of NSW). 

If anyone notices any issues with the scores just let me know. I'll have my previews and selections published after the State of Origin on Wednesday. For those taking part in the Origin tipping comp - make sure you get your predictions in for game two. Here is the link to the comp and my preview. My success rate at picking Origin winners is running at about 80%. It's a shame my NRL tips aren't anything like that.

All the best

The Thinker

Rocket Ryan's picture

I'm worried about Tigerholic he has lost another series the Tigers are hopeless......
Talk to him Baggy he needs another loser to commiserate with.

Rocket Ryan's picture

What a shitshow by NSW all the penaltys all the field position one lucky try.

The Thinker's picture

Breaking gossip/news:

I'm hearing the Gold Coast Titans have a new coach.

And it's Des Hasler.

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

So, Qld wrapped up Origin with an emphatic win last night. As a Maroons fan I have to admit that there was a dubious try awarded last night, possibly two but they were never gonna lose that one. Play of the match for me was DCE chasing down Crichton. That was super impressive and just showed the commitment the Maroons had, deserved winners for sure.

Freddy may have made it easier for them by sticking Cookie in the centres and I’m still trying to work that one out. Mitch Moses had a great first half but faded in the second (not sure what happened there I have to say). Gotta be honest, I really enjoyed the last 30 seconds 😂 💥.

Oh, one last thing … just so you know, I didn’t win tonight’s Powerball. Then again, I didn’t buy a ticket so maybe that could explain why. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye: Bulldogs, Sharks & Tigers.

Dragons vs. Warriors @ WIN
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: The Warriors are coming off the bye and will be fresh as a daisy. So too will the Dragons. I just think the Warriors have the edge in class … Warriors by 8.

Dolphins vs. Eels @ Sunshine Coast
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Verdict: It seems to me that the Dolphins are falling off just a tiny bit whereas the Eels are rediscovering their rhythm … Eels by 12.

Panthers vs. Knights @ BlueBet
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: Yeah, the Panthers lost last week (only just) but they had a legitimate excuse. The Knights on the other hand managed to lose a winnable game against an out-of-sorts Roosters. I can’t see any result other than … Panthers by 14.

Storm vs. Manly @ AAMI
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: While not the Storm we’re used to seeing, they do seem to me to be running into some sort of consistency. Manly will be missing Turbo after his heartbreaking injury in Wednesday’s Origin and might find this a little hard down in Melbourne … Storm by 10.

Broncos vs. Titans @ Suncorp
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: Looking at this one using even a small amount of logic you’d have to acknowledge the Broncos should have too much firepower for the Titans … Broncos by 12.

Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys @ Accor
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: The Rabbitohs will be another side coming off the bye and should be primed for this one. They’ve stalled a bit lately but they will have a heap of talent running around Accor on Sunday. Yeah, the Cowboys did beat the Panthers last week but it was against a side missing a host of top-liners and they had to go to Golden Point to get over the top. The Cowboys have improved a hell of a lot in recent weeks but their defence will be tested in this one … Rabbitohs by 12.

Roosters vs. Raiders @ Allianz
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: The Roosters finally managed a win last week but only just. The Raiders are yet another side coming off a bye and I rate them a tad better than the Knights. This “might” be close (not really sure though) but I didn’t see anything from the Roosters last week that really got me thinking they’re back on track (yet). Seeing as tipping against them last week worked and I’m willing to take another tipping point hit … Raiders by 4.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Absolute classic from the past. When this icon and Kate sing together it’s pure joy. You’ll know who Kate is when you see here and if not, you should when you hear her. Then again, maybe not. Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bLOjmY--TA

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

For those of you frustrated by the amount of ads displaying on the site (and that would be almost all of you), I wanted to let you know that I have applied some changes to how ads will display on both mobiles and desktops/laptops/tablets.

These changes may take a while to filter through but we should start seeing some changes today, and I'm hopeful that it makes for a less annoying experience.

I'll keep tinkering away (thinkering away) with the settings until I'm less annoyed by it all. 

And....I thank you all for putting up with them.

All the best

The Thinker

Esra Star's picture

They never bother me all that much. I just delete them and move on.

Mary S's picture

I use the programme "Bitdefender", that blocks ads but also gives me a safer passage to Internet banking.

When I forgot to turn it on my new laptop, I also deleted ads, the same as Esra Star.

Cheers to all,
Mary

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