Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – AAMI Park

Typically the Melbourne Storm pick themselves in these clashes, what with their astonishing win record over the Broncos. I believe it's 16 wins from the last 17, but even that doesn't paint the true picture. Many of those wins were by hefty margins, even in games where the Broncos were expected to do well. So, if history is your only guide, you've probably read enough, but I'm about to do something a little bit mad. The Broncos can still make the top four and, at the very least, will be wanting to retain a home game in week one of the finals (potentially a money-making blockbuster against the Dolphins). Now, I'm the first to recognise that this is harder than beating the Rabbitohs reserve grade team at Suncorp last week. But they did score 60, and they did that without Payne Haas who returns on Thursday. He's a timely return too, given the season-ending injury to Willison. They've won 6 of their last 7, and their only loss was a narrow one against a team playing well (and the Broncos had a game-winning try disallowed late in the game). I think they're going better than people realise. As for the Storm, we've seen glimpses of their best but not for some time. Recent wins have been narrow and/or scrappy, and they were all against teams outside the top eight. AAMI Park is typically a fortress, but the last time they played there they lost to the Sea Eagles, a team soundly beaten in their two games since. The Storm are so good they often win even when they don't play well, but I think they'll need to be better than that on Thursday. They can be better, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they win by 30, but I'm tipping an upset.

Verdict - Broncos by 2

Result - Storm 22 defeated Broncos 2

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

Last week I touched on the Panthers rule-bending in my preview of their game with the Titans, and now everyone is talking about it. Anyhoo, apparently it was all an honest mistake and we should move on until they do it again. So I'll move on, until they do it again. The Panthers have everything to play for as they eye off a potential top four finish - a result that seemed impossible not so long ago. They are now a firm second favourite to win the premiership, and it's hard to doubt them. You'd think the Knights wouldn't have a lot to play for, but a win or two should be enough to see them avoid the dreaded wooden spoon, and that can be quite the motivation. The return of Best helps, and the Knights are giving another halves combination a try this weekend, with Jake Arthur joining Cogger. A big out for the Panthers too, with Yeo out with a shoulder issue for a yet-to-be-determined period. He's an important link man for the Panthers and it will take some adjusting to his absence, but the Panthers spine of Edwards, Talagi, Clearly and Kenny is classy, and can get the job done. The Panthers may want to make some sort of "we can win without cheating" statement on Friday night. Good! Don't just say it...live it.

Verdict - Panthers by 14

Result - Panthers 48 defeated Knights 12

Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – GIO Stadium

No line-up changes for the Raiders after their surprise loss to the Dragons. The loss they needed to have is a bit of a cliché, but I think there's some truth in it. No panic stations from the Raiders camp for now, but they won't want to lose two in a row. The Sea Eagles are still in the contest for a top eight finish with the Dolphins and Roosters. They're the least likely of the trio, particularly on recent form, but they do have the softest draw from here. With the other two teams playing each other, Manly probably need to win this to keep their hopes alive. Unfortunately they've scored just 8 points in their last two games. The Raiders, by comparison, scored 84 points in their last two games at home.

Verdict - Raiders by 8

Result - Raiders 28 defeated Sea Eagles 12

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Jubilee Stadium

The local derbies have been fairly one-sided in recent times, with the Sharks winning the last ten (yes, really). Even at this venue, where you'd think the Dragons would do better, their last win over their neighbours was in 2016. The Sharks are some chance of a top four finish, and the Dragons are in that weird section of the ladder where they can't make the top eight and can't finish last. It looks to me like one team has a lot more to play for. Given that, and given recent results between these two, the Sharks seem the sensible way to go.

Verdict - Sharks by 7

Result - Dragons 22 defeated Sharks 14

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

For mine, this is the game of the round. Two of the more entertaining teams to watch and it's looking like one of them (but not both of them) will be playing finals football this season. It also brings together two of the most promising young halfbacks in the NRL (Katoa vs Walker), and the battle of the fullbacks (Tabuai-Fidow vs Tedesco) is worth the admission price alone. These sides have already met this season and at this ground, where the Roosters prevailed 36-26 in Magic Round. It was 7 tries to 4 that day, with wayward kicking by the Chooks keeping the score closer than it could have been. The Dolphins also have two big outs on Saturday night - Kaufusi (perhaps lucky to only get a two week suspension given his colourful history with the judiciary) and the injured Farnworth. Add those two to the Dolphins and I'd probably be tipping them, but without them I'd say the Chooks have the edge.

Verdict - Roosters by 8

Result - Roosters 64 defeated Dolphins 12

Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

Phil Gould has been keen to talk about a lot of things this week, but the one thing he doesn't want anyone talking about is the Bulldogs poor loss to the Tigers. Ah, the gentle art of distraction. It was another rainy day and another poor loss for the Bulldogs in those conditions - if they were a racehorse they'd be a late scratching. There's some chance of wet conditions in Sydney on Saturday night too - keep your eyes on the skies. Galvin has been getting around in a hand brace which may or may not be a big deal. We honestly don't know, but it's fair to note that half the players in the NRL are strapped up for one reason or another at this time of the year. He's been named to play so let's assume he'll be there on the night. The Bulldogs record against top eight teams is quite poor, and the Warriors have been a top eight team all season. They've had a few wobbles of late with key players unavailable, but I'm tipping them in a genuine upset here. They will have likely seen a number of teams (potentially three) go past them on the ladder before kick-off, and I'll back them to reclaim their spot in the top four.

Verdict - Warriors by 4

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Warriors 14

Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium

A game that won't mean much to many, but it means a lot to these two teams. 16th plays 17th and winning could mean the difference between last and something other than last. The Titans were gallant and, let me say this politely, unlucky against the Panthers last weekend. Not only was there all the controversy surrounding the missed conversion attempt, the NRL have since admitted that the referees made an error and should have awarded Sami a penalty try. No try for Sami, Sami misses this game through concussion protocols, and the bloke that biffed him in the head is playing for Penrith this weekend. Life, and rugby league, isn't always fair. I'm tipping the Titans and not only because I want them to have a win. They've been playing well over the last month and the Rabbitohs, still scraping a team together as best they can, are staring down successive away games interstate. That's not easy for regular first graders.

Verdict - Titans by 8

Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Titans 18

Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

The Cowboys were a hard watch last week. I kept watching, but turning it off would have been better for my soul. Few would have seen a reason to think they could front up the next weekend in Sydney and turn things around, but I didn't decide to call myself the biggest mind in rugby league for nothing. Importantly, the Cowboys lineup on Sunday afternoon looks much more logical. Clifford in the halves, Purdue and Vailea in the centres, Nanai in the forwards, Taumalolo back at prop for the first time in a long time, Mikaele returns on the bench to add some much needed vigor to the pack. This team looks better. This team has four Origin players in its starting thirteen. This team can win. It's been a long time since the Eels were favoured to win a game, and I think they'll take their opposition for granted. On form, I don't blame them.

Verdict - Cowboys by 4

Result - Eels 19 defeated Cowboys 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• STORM vs Broncos
• Knights vs PANTHERS
• RAIDERS vs Sea Eagles
• Dragons vs SHARKS
• DOLPHINS vs Roosters
• BULLDOGS vs Warriors
• TITANS vs Rabbitohs
• EELS vs Cowboys