Round twenty-six selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium

From time to time one needs to put the form guide in the back pocket and just ask one simple question - who wants this more? Keep that question in mind, because it is a question worth asking for many of the games this weekend. The Bulldogs have a stranglehold on fifth spot - they certainly can't get any higher and only a massive loss (and a big win by the Sharks) would see them fall back to sixth. Obviously the Broncos can't do much to make this season a success but they can (theoretically) finish as high as 11th, which looks a little bit better than finishing 13th. I'm not sure if that is enough motivation, but what may motivate them is the desire to give their fans at home something to cheer about in what has been an awful year. And we have some milestone moments on Thursday night as well - David Stagg plays his 200th game, and Scott Prince plays his 300th (and final) game. A tremendous achievement for two of the nicest (and smartest) guys in football - both have battled serious injuries throughout their careers but have kept on keeping on. The Broncos are big outsiders, but we've seen plenty of outsiders winning in recent weeks. Note the Thursday night timeslot tipsters. Get your selections in early this week.

Verdict – Broncos

Result - Broncos 16 defeated Bulldogs 11

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

It's the longest running rivalry in the rugby league world. They met in round one, and they meet in round 26, and this time the winner gets the minor premiership and an early psychological blow going into the finals series. I could talk about this game for hours, but I'll do my best to keep this brief and let the game do the talking on Friday night. I'm sure Inglis wants to play, but it may not be his choice to make. His inclusion would be a considerable risk so close to the finals, but you want your big-game players playing in the big games, and Inglis is every inch a big-game player. Across the park these sides are pretty evenly matched, but the Bunnies do have an edge on their bench. The Bunnies can pitch those two Burgess twins into the game at choice moments, and they'll be very difficult to stop. A try to George Burgess late in the second half may prove the difference at full-time. If the Bunnies do win they'll most likely be facing the Storm in the first week of the finals, and the Storm are the last team the Bunnies want to be playing in the finals. That said, I doubt they'll be thinking much beyond Friday night. Once or twice a season you get a game of football that is played at an entirely different level to all other games of football. This will be one of those games. 100% unmissable.

Verdict – Rabbitohs

Result - Roosters 24 defeated Rabbitohs 12

St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday afternoon – WIN Stadium

It's rather miraculous, but the schedule of the final round means that every team in contention for the final spots in the last eight will think they can still make the eight when they take to the field. As far as the Warriors know, the Titans, Cowboys and Kevin Rudd will be losing later that day, and if they do the Warriors are a happy happy team. They have a reason to win this game, and I can't find a reason why the Dragons want to win this game. They've avoided the wooden spoon, and I doubt the chance to leapfrog the Tigers in 14th spot is motivation enough. In any case, they were pretty woeful on Monday night against the worst team in the competition. Expect the Warriors to run away with this one in the second stanza.

Verdict – Warriors

Result - Dragons 19 defeated Warriors 10

Melbourne Storm vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – AAMI Park

If the Titans make the top eight they are going to do it the hard way, backing up their away win over the Roosters with an away win over the Storm - and even then they need the Cowboys to fall over against the Tigers later that night in Townsville. It's all a bit too much isn't it? Isn't it? I realise Melbourne don't have a lot to play for here, but they can briefly get back into third place and hope the Sea Eagles find a way to lose to Penrith at Brookie on Sunday afternoon. Is that enough? Perhaps not, but I don't think the Storm are the sort of side that want to go into a finals series on the back of consecutive losses. Cameron Smith put a rocket up his troops after the loss to Manly last weekend. I expect his troops to remove the rockets and respond accordingly.

Verdict – Storm

Result - Storm 23 defeated Titans 22 (golden point)

North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium

Regardless of what happens during the remainder of season 2013, this is the last game for Matt Bowen at his home ground. When the Cowboys weren't very good (and that was often) he was one very good reason to watch the Cowboys. I can still remember some of the remarkable things he did on the park during his younger years..and he's still got it. He has contributed to the changing role of the fullback in the modern game as much as anybody. He has gone about his business season after season, and he's barely raised a whisper. I can't recall a single clash with a referee or a touch judge. No controversies. No fireworks. Just a lovely quiet guy with arguably the silkiest hands in the game. I'll miss him, and a treble for Bowen on Saturday night would be reason enough to watch what I imagine will be one-way traffic all night.

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Cowboys 50 defeated Tigers 22

Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Brookvale Oval

There should be quite a bit of joyousness around Brookvale on Sunday afternoon. It's pretty likely we'll have a new Prime Minister by then, and with that comes a significant upgrade to the facilities for the local team of the new PM. So there's that, and an opportunity for Manly to cement third spot on the ladder with a win. Penrith are arguably the only team in Western Sydney that have performed above expectations this season, and I expect brighter days for them in the next few seasons. But a Sunday afternoon at Brookie is a tough way to end the season, and the Sea Eagles should win this one by a fair margin. An interesting point of interest for this game is the race for the individual honour of top try scorer this season. Penrith winger David Simmons will be hoping The Wolfman has a quiet game. He is one of three players (the other two are Sam Perrett and Michael Jennings) who needs a treble to take the honour away from Simmons and The Wolfman might be the man most likely.

Verdict – Sea Eagles

Result - Panthers 38 defeated Sea Eagles 26

Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium

It is highly probable that the Knights will need to win this game to stay in the top eight, but even if they don't, this is their annual old boys game. Newcastle almost never lose the old boys game...against anybody. They certainly won't be losing to the a team running last who have absolutely nothing to play for. Knights by 44.

Verdict – Knights

Result - Knights 54 defeated Eels 6

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday night – Canberra Stadium

The Raiders have lost five games in a row, and have conceded an extraordinary 210 points in the process. On that form only a complete knucklehead of the lowest order would be tipping them on Sunday night. Well call me captain knucklehead. Remember that question I asked earlier about who wants to win most. Well the Sharks don't really have a lot to play for here. No matter the result they'll be finishing in 6th place this season. Do they give this their all? Do they risk injuries and suspensions in a game of no consequence? I can't see them doing what the Fremantle Dockers did in the AFL but I just wonder if they'll be 100% switched on. It's been a pretty dire season for the Raiders on and off the park but, like the Broncos, they get an opportunity to finish the season with a win at home.

Verdict – Raiders

Result - Sharks 38 defeated Raiders 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • Broncos vs BULLDOGS
  • RABBITOHS vs Roosters
  • Dragons vs WARRIORS
  • STORM vs Titans
  • COWBOYS vs Tigers
  • SEA EAGLES vs Panthers
  • KNIGHTS vs Eels
  • Raiders vs SHARKS

Comments

Johnny Ray's picture

Awesome ! Thanks for that Thinker ! Here's my tips for this round : Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Warriors, Storm, Tigers, Sea Eagles , Knights, Sharks. That and I also have worse fears that some of these top sides could be resting their players in this round, such as Storm. I so hope that I am wrong because it so won't help Warriors campaign if they do ! Gone The Warriors ! ;-D

The Thinker's picture

As this is the last round of the season (and many of you start to disappear after this week as most tipping competitions draw to a close), I thought I better offer a few thank you's.

First and foremost to the regular contributors that come here each and every round and share their thoughts. I don't want to list you all because I'd feel like quite a dill if I forgot somebody, but it would be silly of me not to give special thanks to The Guru for all the work he puts into his selections and thoughts. I've never met the guy but, like me, he's just doing this for the love of the game. Some of his contributions are at ungodly hours and I'm sure he has moments when he wonders why on earth he goes to all the trouble. I can only say thank you. Seriously...thank you. If a media kingpin ever gets in touch and offers me a giant cheque I'll be in touch.

Thanks again to The King, who looks likely to pip me again this season when it matters most. Argh! Curse these end of season Thinker wobbles...I'd been travelling so well. Oh well. He's got his own statue for a reason.

And to each and every one of you. Around 30,000 different people have read these tips in 2013, and many many thousands of you come back each and every week. By the end of the season we should be cracking 250,000 page views...and thats twice as many as season 2012. There are plenty of websites out there, and trust me, for a tiny little website that is basically a one-pager for 26 weeks of the year - that is one hell of a lot of eyeballs. Thank you for coming here. I hope you got something out of all of this.

Good luck in the final week. I hope some of you got some prizemoney out of your tipping comps. And if your team is still alive in season 2013, I wish you smooth sailing and nothing but green lights from the video referee.

Guru Craig's picture

Brisbane - The Boss says it above...(made sure to read ahead this week) Brisbane have a lot to play for. The Barber situation will probably be in Hoffman's mind and The Guru expects Josh to have a big game, he will score at some stage and look for Prince to have a blinder.

Roosters - There can be only one minor premier. The pressure is on the Chooks, 2 straight losses now their skill and brilliance wasn't enough, beaten by desperate teams who lifted for the occasion. Robinson has to get some enthusiasm into his side, extra effort is required in finals football and the team the 'G' rates as the most skillful will need to lift if they want the NRLs cash. Trent your facing the old Chooks coach is a choker part of the year mate, chin up.

NZW - St George have had a season to forget, the main course has mostly been Pineapple flavoured, strangely enough though it did offset the odd Sower-d'entree taste left in the mouth, But still...a head chef needs innovation to keep the punters coming through the door, as seen in South Sydney Aussie punters appreciate a bit of overseas fancy..even if its just bog an mash.

Storm - The Guru got it wrong last week, stone cold. Melbourne will be tested by the GCT, from a betting perspective the Titans are worth a look at a line of +18.5.

NQC - The Henry surprise party continues, perhaps these 'Coach got sacked, lets win a few' runs will become more frequent in the NRL. The Cows actually have the rosters to go a long way into the finals and intelligent punters be told...JT and a few want the lot for Murray, The Guru isn't sure if they have enough but i won't be betting against them.

Manly - The Eagles stood tall last week, with a little assistance from the whistle blowers, Tooveys troops smashed The Storm as they will The Pennies this week. Last round football can throw a few surprises but not this game.

Knights - The Guru sadly collected his winnings on the multi @ 7.60 as Brisbane went down in the final 20 last week. Wayne Bennett was always going to out think Griffin, Wayne knew what Hook had and with the Bronco's kryptonite a know fact Brisbane had little chance. Newcastle need to win, they must have momentum going into September because the teams above them are a lot better.

Canberra - The Sharks won't improve much with a win and The G doesn't think they'll be too interested, this isn't a team with a lot of heart or intestinal fortitude. Canberra aren't much better either but this game is The Raiders GF, last of the year at home with a sacked coach and team morale lost somewhere in the sheds after a Storm the Green Machine can win.

The Believer's picture

Just wanted to say thanks for your comments of wisdom and tipps for 2013 Thinker. I have to inform you I have finished in the top 10 but fell short of the couple thousand $ prize. Will you be tipping the finals. If not talk to you in 2014.
God Bless you sir.

a's picture

My tips will be to good to refuse for the Joker

Bulldogs never tip the broncos when their season is over

Rabbitohs Joker knows it to

Warriors The will break through at the Dragons home ground for the 1st time

Storm Titans can not do it 2 weeks in the row

Cowboys they should win Bowen to score a try and kick a goal on his last game

Sea Eagles Panthers are too crap

Knights I tipping Knights and so will Joker because they are playing Eels

Sharks Never tip Raiders

Do you disagree with me Joker? let me know what you think

The Thinker's picture

The Believer,
Thank you for that. Bad luck with the top ten finish - that is quite a prize for a tipping comp.

I'll keep tipping through to the grand final - I just know that there'll be about 10,000 of you this week and about 5,000 of you next week...so I thought I better pass on my end of season goodbyes while there are still plenty of people at the party.

The Joker's picture

Well done a ! ... your tips are 100% .. good job buddy!!

The Joker's picture

P.s expand your vocabulary past 'crap' ! Hehe. Now be careful we don't want 10 in the bin!

Bali John's picture

Morning all, What a weekend in the tipping comps that was! Atho, We didn't get the 8 but 6 should sit us pretty. Here are my early ones before the boss makes his. I have also realised this year, if I change my tips I loose.
Here goes,
Dogs
Chooks
Kiwi's
Storm
Cowboys
Manly
Knights
Raiders.

Cheers from Sunny Bali.

Atho's picture

Bali john......I'm with you all the way except I'm not sure if the Chooks can get over the Bunnies. I've got a day or so to think about it

Michelle's picture

Thanks for all your help and guidance over the season. I may not win the comp(well I haven't) but at least I've had fun.

Signed
one of your silent viewers

Lady Di's picture

Oi oi saveloy! I've been blessed coming across your site as I did and it's been supremely helpful in keeping me in contention for the office tipping comp.
Questions abound as to how I've managed with such a lack of knowledge to do so well for a Pom, so I thank The Thinker and The Guru.
Now, about the SAS and those tunnel allegations...

rob's picture

Cherers for the tips thinker! I may not comment here every week but i always have a peek on what you have to say about every nrl bet i make! From your sure-thing bets that somehow loses, to the gamble-responsibly bets that always wins, just wanted to say i enjoyed season 2013 with you thinker! (Except the one part when u said Bet for broncos sure thing and Missus almost killed me) lol! But seriously thank you and cant wait to see what u have to say for the finals

Bali John's picture

Atho, I have been told by someone way up the food chain that SBW has had velcro surgically attached to his palms, so we should all be good this week.
Pergi di Ayam.
"Go the Chooks"

J-rock's picture

Dear Thinker
I think you are a really good tipper, with one weakness! The Broncos. I'm not going with you on this one... sorry, you've been awesome all season but it's clear the cream is rising to the top.
Bulldogs
Roosters
Warriors
Titans
My Boys... Cowboys
Sea Eagles
Knights
Sharks

Nik's picture

I tend to agree with J-rock and would like to backup his constructive criticism. No offense but this year your tips for Broncos just suck ... of course compared to the previous 2 years where you were brilliant even with the 'baby' Broncos' games. My respect goes to the King who also straggled with his Broncos' tips this year but remained more realistic rather than optimistic. I also found another tendency ... just like last year he might beat your tips just at the very end of the season...am I wrong? ... will see after this round.
No matter how boring this will be, I tend to agree with all Wally's tips for this last round.
Anyway, I'd also like to THANK YOU ALL for your time, analysis and comments throughout the season. They were certainly most helpful especially when in doubt and I totally enjoyed reading them every week. Got 124 right so far.
Enjoy the finals guys and ... Go the Rabbitohs! Cheers!

Mug Tipper's picture

Just wanted to say "Thank You" Mr Thinker, even though last week was a shocker,in the end it is a personal choice. I have enjoyed reading your tips each week, and your comments made me smile on a lot of occasions, so I hope you will be back in 2014? Cheers

The Joker's picture

Woof woof! cheers thinker for your input, much appreciated! ...boing boing!

newbie from perth's picture

Hi everyone,

Decided to do a "Guru" and do my tips before I read the wisdom from Mr T. Not sure how I'll go but I differ on 3 games:

Doggies* (completely forgot it was being played tonight so have resisted the temptation to check the scores).

The Mighty Chooks* (even though the last 2 weeks have scarred me emotionally).

Knights
Stormers*
Sharks
Warriors
Cowboys
Manly

Mucho mucho thanks to The Thinker for all his hard work this year. As I've said before, it's a great help to me over here in the West. I always look forward to Thursday nights and having some knowledge, wisdom and often much hilarity thrown in my direction. It's appreciated - thank you. Maybe Bali John would say "terima kasih". BTW, great to see he's a Rooster's man. Nice one BJ.

Thanks to the Guru as well. I always get a laugh out of your comments. Besides Mr T's pearls, I always look for yours as well. Again, it's a great help in appreciating this great game of ours. Cheers brother.

Thanks too to everyone else who put up their views each week, whether it be every week or just occasionally. Some of them make me shake my head and others make me nod in agreement. All are appreciated equally. If your team is still alive after this weekend, good luck to you. Hope to see you all again next year, refreshed, eager and hungry for some footy action. I know I will be.

Lastly I just need to say .....

"CARN YOU MIGHTY ROOSTER BOYS!"

Cheers...

Adam's picture

Well you know what your talking about. I guess the dogs where too good tonight
By the way did anyone else see Barbas form slump. The change of club must not be skin deep. Look forward to seeing what the dogs can do next year. I hope it is a repeat of previous years. Go the Dogs

Steel Panther's picture

Guess you silenced a few critics last night Thinker. Well done!! The way the Dogs played last night they'll only have one game left. They lacked ideas on how to get over the chalk in the face of some tough Brisbane defence. If I recall correctly Brisbane didn't feature in your pre-season prediction of the top 8 and you've been spot on. My tipping comp goes through to the finals so I'll continue to watch your tips with interest over the next few weeks.

Guru Craig's picture

Thinker...thanks for having me, i greatly enjoy writing my tips here and im loving being on the board. Thank you for the compliments mate.

The Bronco's ran home nicely last night and like not ye of little faith..the G had a crisp bank note on Bris 1-12 @ 4.00 and several of his friends on the line @ 1.92.

Linnie's picture

Hi thanks for your tips each week it has helped me along the way. I am in first position by under 2 points I'm worried on who to pick on the raiders and shark game I'm scared I'm going to lose first position on the final game lol any one a phycic haha

Guru Craig's picture

Linnie, The Guru is backing the Raiders, im not feeling much from The Sharks, a win means they finish 5th and play eight next week (NQC) or loose, finish 6th and play The Knights 7th.

The NQC are a dangerous finals prospect, they have JT, big forwards and massive personal motivation and then the 'sacked coach' factor.

Newcastle have Wayne, the players will lift and give an account of themselves, but. Its been there for all to see, Newcastle have struggled to bond this year, as a team they have improved but the tight close games or when you really need something extra, the Knights have fallen a bit short.

Beware - Canberra are a bit unknown form wise, if they want this game it's theirs... but do they want it?

Linnie's picture

Thanks I was leaning towards the raiders they will want to end in a bit of a high .. If sharks do win well I'm sure ill be happy I got so far judging on what 2nd has picked they r worth enough for me to lose thanks for the info and go the raiders tonight I'm genna be nervous the whole 80 mins

Guru Craig's picture

Howzat for a finish...Victory to The Thinker by a single pt. Congrats mate, you too Wal, The Guru is happy to have kept up.

Steel Panther's picture

Hey Thinker..any chance you can also pick margins for the final series 1-12, 13+ ??

mark ashford's picture

Thank heavens someone removed all that rubbish.
Just wanted to ad my sincere thanks to the Thinker, Wal, Guru,a, joker etc (you know who you are) all of you who take the time and trouble to offer your thoughts on this great game. I didn't win my comp but did improve on last year so that's good.
My Broncos failed this year (prob why I lost my comp!) but with some new blood will be back to show how it's done in 2014.
If you're lucky enough to have a team in the finals then good luck, personally I would like to see the rabbits take it out this year.

The Joker's picture

Finals: Souths, Cows, Manly, Knights

The latest in NRL news