Round twenty-five selections

Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – Brookvale Oval


Things couldn't be more straight-forward for the Sea Eagles. If they keep winning they hold out the Cowboys and secure a top four finish, and a top four finish is vital under the new NRL finals system. And if they stay in fourth spot we all get a lip-smacking clash between the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles in the first week of the finals, but let's not get ahead of ourselves. It's slightly more complicated for the Broncos - they are almost certain to pick up two points in their last round clash but they could still miss the top eight if the Raiders and Tigers both win their last two regular season games. It seems unlikely, but I've seen plenty of unlikely things happen in this competition over the years. The Broncos recent form slump is one such unlikely thing - they've won just one game in their last eight weeks. That win was a narrow and rather lucky win over the Warriors in Brisbane, and even the Panthers are good enough to score a narrow win over the Warriors. The Broncos have an opportunity to make a statement this weekend, and to be fair to the boys from Brisneyland they haven't been that far away in recent weeks. A win at Brookvale and they announce to the competition that big brother still has some life in his legs. I have a feeling in my waters that they'll turn this into one hell of a clash, but I can't tip them. That first-half assault by the Sea Eagles on the Knights was too good to ignore. Manly...but by less then most might think.
Verdict – Sea Eagles
Result - Sea Eagles 16 defeated Broncos 6


Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs - Friday night – Canberra Stadium


If the Bulldogs were to lose another game this season then this would be the game to lose. The minor premiership is effectively sewn up. They're in Canberra. It's cold, (possibly) wet and windy. Does Des push his players and risk injuries? At this time of year even a minor hamstring problem can have players sitting out finals. As much as I'd like to talk myself into an upset result I can't take on the Bulldogs. Even when they don't win convincingly they still win, and Ben Barba did run riot the last time these sides met. He's likely to save, create and score enough tries on his own to get the Bulldogs over the line. The Raiders are on a winning run and they will throw everything at this game, but they tend to struggle against the big guns of the competition. Bulldogs 20, Barba 8, Raiders 16...or thereabouts. 
Verdict – Bulldogs
Result - Raiders 34 defeated Bulldogs 6


Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – Centrebet Stadium


I took my own advice and didn't watch the Panthers last round, and I'm sure I'm a better person for doing so. At least they found a way to win a game that they deserved to win, but they were facing the only team in the competition who know how to find a way to lose better than the Panthers. The Titans have everything to play for, are close to full-strength and are in good form. $1.60 for the Titans looks like good shopping to me. Very good shopping.
Verdict – Titans
Result - Panthers 36 defeated Titans 22


St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors - Saturday night – WIN Stadium


We've all seen what a team can do when a coach gets sacked, and if the Eels can beat the Storm and the Broncos then the Warriors could beat the Dragons by 40. While a win for the Warriors wouldn't completely surprise, I will leap to the conclusion that the Dragons will turn up with their game boots on Saturday night. Two of their great club stalwarts in Ben Hornby and Dean Young will play their last game at home. This is their moment, because in the last round they face the Eels away from home and that moment will be about two club stalwarts for Parramatta. Ben Hornby and Dean Young deserve a victory, and I think they'll get it too.
Verdict – Dragons
Result - Dragons 38 defeated Warriors 6


North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – Dairy Farmers Stadium


The Knights are a mathematical hope of playing finals football, but the numbers usually don't fall the right way for teams that are dependant on mathemagicians to get them over the line. They would have to win this game, and win it well, to be any hope. Even then, other results need to fall their way. They have everything to play for, but the same could be said for their opponents who are still in with a very real shot at a top four finish. Rather amazingly, both these sides have won four of their last six games, and those two losses for both sides were against the same opponents (the Bulldogs and the Sea Eagles). It's fair to say the Cowboys were more competitive than the Knights in those losses, and I expect that form line to hold up this weekend. 
Verdict – Cowboys
Result - Cowboys 22 defeated Knights 14


Sydney Roosters vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium


I smell an upset brewing at the Football Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The Roosters have a great record against the Tigers (winning five of their last six games) and Anthony 'violins' Minichiello notches up 250 games in the NRL. That normally wouldn't be enough to swing me to the chickens, but the injury to Tigers captain Robbie Farah is the key. The Tigers have won just two of their last nine games when Farah has been unavailable, and without him their attack lacks direction and focus. On paper the Tigers should still win this game in a canter, and it's a game they really need to win, but on paper the Tigers should be in the top four. The Roosters don't have a lot to play for, but knocking the Tigers out of finals contention might bring them some joy in what has been a disappointing year. Let's hope Braith Anasta feels comfortable knocking over the team that he's joining next season.
Verdict – Roosters
Result - Roosters 44 defeated Tigers 20


South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium


The Bunnies have lost their last two games and have scored just 13 points in the process, but they'll crack the half century on Sunday afternoon. They need a big win to consolidate a top four finish and they'll get conditions to suit on the weekend. Parramatta have shown signs of life in recent weeks but I have a feeling they'll be thinking about next week when they should be thinking about this week. Remember the phrase 'a point a minute'. You'll be hearing it often.
Verdict – Rabbitohs
Result - Rabbitohs 38 defeated Eels 6


Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – Monday night – AAMI Park


The Sharks forward pack will be agressive and in the face of the purple people at every opportunity, and it's a style of play that can trouble the Storm. This game looks set to be an arm wrestle, and under those circumstances it's the team that can convert scoring opportunities into points that comes out on top. Melbourne with their big guns on board and at home are the logical choice. This looks set to be the lowest scoring game of the round and I doubt there'll be much in it, but with a top two finish (and an all important home final) on the line I'll take the home side by a whisker.
Verdict – Storm
Result - Storm 20 dodged a bullet and beat the Sharks 18


Wally Lewis - round twenty-five selections (in bold)


Note: tips from Wally will be published as soon as possible (usually on Thursday night or early Friday morning).



  • SEA EAGLES vs Broncos

  • Raiders vs BULLDOGS

  • DRAGONS vs Warriors

  • COWBOYS vs Knights

  • Panthers vs TITANS

  • Roosters vs TIGERS

  • RABBITOHS vs Eels

  • STORM vs Sharks

Comments

Rick's picture

I am with you Thinker this Round other than the Tigers/Roosters match, this one in my view appears exceptionally unpredictable but I'll back the Tigers this time I think.

newbie from perth's picture

I'm with the Thinker except I'm leaning towards the Tigers to beat the Roosters and for my roughie, the Warriors to knock off those Dragons.

Noted the Thinker's comments re Titans being "good shopping" at $1.60 but over here in the West they're $1.54 so I might grab some -4.5 pts at $1.90 instead. Fingers crossed!!

Best of luck everyone...

Brett's picture

How often does a team win the week after their coach has been sacked.

The Thinker's picture

All too often Brett, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happens again.

In other news I should mention that I'll be updating from a slightly more remote South Pacific nation than usual for a week or so. Please forgive me if my responses or updates are a little slower - I'll be operating on 'island time'.

I'll be back on the mainland in time for the finals.

All the best and enjoy the weekend.

Craig's picture

Bri - I think its business time for Brisbane this week and the Bronc's will win

Bulldogs, Hmmm, overdue for a loss and this game is a great one to drop, however its madness to tip against them.

GCT - throw in the unknown..Lewis's health issues and i think the Panthers will lift and lose by less than 10.

STG - i lost $ last year when NZ beat Pen after Elliot was assed but i think the Dragons will slay the Warriors by 13+

NQ - as i said recently, Newcastle are done for 2012

Wes - Tigers by 13+, they have to turn up for these, Chooks are easy beats most of the time. my personal policy though, no bets on wests, dont trust em.

Sths - see above, if you cant beat the cellar dwellers, even when they are fired up, your not in the hunt for the trophy, Para will lift for Hindy, but i don't think they have the heart.

Mel - I say the storm because i think they will outscore the Sharks, but not by much, im expecting a tough fiery game.

Its money time, im expecting the wheat and chaff to sort themselves, the past 4-5 weeks have been a nightmare to tip but im getting that feeling...time to cash in.

a's picture

I with Rick and Newbie from perth

Grasshopper's picture

Hursty's tips this week.
Broncos, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Titans, Tigers, Rabbitohs, Storm.
Grasshopper's winning tips this week.
SEA EAGLES, BULLDOGS,
DRAGONS, COWBOYS, TITANS, TIGERS, RABBITOHS, STORM

mark's picture

Broncos, Titans, Bulldogs and Tigers let me down! Otherwise a perfect round (ha-ha) (of course Storm will win tonight) Need a big one this weekend boys...How does this sound Rabbits, Broncos, Dogs, Cowboys, Raiders, Manly, Storm & Dragons. Sorry Mr. Thinker but I need all the help I can Get.

Brian at Bateau's picture

key points at close of round 25 rest Bulldogs main coordinator and the team smells relaxation Next without Farrar Tigers will re struggle Canberra are tough at home The emotion around the lewis speech at Penrith was worth 15 points plus to the home team Manly will not throw in the towel at Brookie Sharks and Storm only 3 points in it at a guess

a's picture

What is your top 8 perdiction?

brian @ bateau's picture

top 8 bulldog storm souths manly cowboys sharks raiders broncos

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