New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons – Wednesday night – Etihad Stadium
New South Wales
- Brett Stewart (Manly Sea Eagles)
- Jarryd Hayne (Parramatta Eels)
- Michael Jennings (Windsor Wolves)
- Josh Morris (Canterbury Bulldogs)
- Akuila Uate (Newcastle Knights)
- Todd Carney (Cronulla Sharks)
- Mitchell Pearce (Sydney Roosters)
- Paul Gallen (c) (Cronulla Sharks)
- Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers)
- James Tamou (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Glenn Stewart (Manly Sea Eagles)
- Luke Lewis (Penrith Panthers)
- Greg Bird (Gold Coast Titans)
- Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra Dragons)
- Jamie Buhrer (Manly Sea Eagles)
- Ben Creagh (St George Illawarra Dragons)
- Tony Williams (Manly Sea Eagles)
Queensland
- Billy Slater (Melbourne Storm)
- Darius Boyd (Newcastle Knights)
- Greg Inglis (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Justin Hodges (Brisbane Broncos)
- Brent Tate (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Jonathan Thurston (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Cooper Cronk (Melbourne Storm)
- Matt Scott (North Queensland Cowboys)
- Cameron Smith (c) (Melbourne Storm)
- Petero Civoniceva (Brisbane Broncos)
- Nate Myles (Gold Coast Titans)
- Sam Thaiday (Brisbane Broncos)
- Ashley Harrison (Gold Coast Titans)
- Matt Gillett (Brisbane Broncos)
- Dave Taylor (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
- Ben Hannant (Brisbane Broncos)
- David Shillington (Canberra Raiders)
Here they are. Five compelling reasons why Queensland will win game one of the 2012 State of Origin series:
Talent
Cast your eyes across the sides listed above and ask yourself one question. How many of the New South Wales seventeen would be named in the Queensland side? I'm willing to find a place for two - I'd put Jarryd Hayne on a wing ahead of the out-of-form Darius Boyd and I'd put Paul Gallen at lock ahead of Ashley Harrison. One winger and one back-rower. Others may be willing to include more than two, but it wouldn't be many more. And to support my claim, ten of the starting thirteen for the Kangaroos in the recent ANZAC test are lining up for Queensland on Wednesday.
Form
Only three of the New South Wales seventeen are playing in teams in the top four in the NRL. For Queensland that number is eleven, and those eleven don't include Greg Inglis and Dave Taylor who are playing the best football of their careers. New South Wales have named a starting centre who can't even make the seventeen for the Panthers - a team running second last.
Combinations
Have a look at the New South Wales playmakers and backline (numbers one through seven and their number nine). Eight players from eight different clubs. They have to find some combinations and find them fast and then they need to make it work against what is virtually the Australian backline. The only major change for the Queensland backline is the inclusion of Cooper Cronk, a man who has had more than enough practice combining with Cameron Smith and Billy Slater in recent years. Cronk will focus his attack on the middle third of the park in combination with Smith and Slater (the 'zip play' - two or three runs at a tiring NSW forward, then Smith heads straight at him one more time with Cronk and Slater on his tail), while Thurston will look to link up with the outside men. His 'show and go' has to be watched closely, but those right edge defenders for NSW have to keep half on eye on two big bunnies in Inglis and Taylor. Plenty to see there.
Field position
There seems to be considerable talk about the mobility of the New South Wales forwards, and I take the point. It's quite clear they will attempt to run around Queensland rather than through them, hoping to test the larger Queensland pack on the edges with lateral movement. I understand the concept, but lateral movement only works when a side has forward momentum. Without momentum you're just crabbing across the park, so someone in that New South Wales side needs to put their hand up for the tough stuff. No prizes for me if I suggest that Paul Gallen will volunteer first. Providing his knee holds out he won't let them down, but if he can find some mates it might help their cause. The other big men in their line-up (Tamou, Stewart, Williams, Creagh, Merrin and Buhrer) are predominantly edge runners. Where are the middle men? The New South Wales strategy might work, but Queensland have four very handy forwards on their interchange. They may not tire as quickly as New South Wales might hope.
Enthusiasm
I don't doubt Ricky Stuart and his enthusiasm for the cause. I don't doubt that the speech from Phil Gould the other day was heartfelt and genuine. And I don't doubt the eagerness of the New South Wales team to win this series. All those things are certainly true. What is also true is that Mal Meninga and his maroon entourage don't need to conjure up enthusiasm for the cause. If I was Mal (and last time I checked I wasn't), I'd be pulling out three replays for the boys to watch before Wednesday night. The first would be game one of the 2001 series. Queensland had ten debutants in that game including a fresh-faced Petero Civoniceva. Few gave them much chance but they won 34-16 and went on to win the series. The second would be game one of the 2011 series, where Queensland were looking pretty comfortable until New South Wales mounted a comeback and hit the front. A late try to Billy Slater got the maroons over the line. And the third game I would show them is the first Origin game ever - with the great Arthur Beetson leading out his beloved Queensland side for the first time. I'm not sure if Mal will pull out videos of the first two games I mentioned, but he will almost certainly be showing them the third. And with that, a Queensland victory is assured.
Verdict : Queensland 18 - New South Wales 8
First try scorer : Greg Inglis
Man of the Match : Greg Inglis
Comments
Submitted by Craig on
As a young lad Growing up in western QLD, we learnt how the world turns, one of life's important lessons that seemed to teach itself was that us QLDers were the knights in shining armour, the heroic underdogs being menaced by those no-good bastards from down south, it was quite clear to us, QLD were the good guys and NSW are the villains, As much a fact as the sun going down every evening.
That simple truth is what sets us apart from 'Them'. Come Wednesday night all 17 boys wearing maroon jerseys will believe in their heart without a doubt they deserve to win the game, it's the only fitting result,'They' are on the side of right and the other lot are going to do what villains do best, attempt to win at any cost.
That is what keeps us going, gets us up off the ground when we've been wronged, makes us try harder, go past the point of endurance, that is the spirit of a QLDer, just ask fatty's boys from 95, 3-0 against the all star NSW side coached by the guru himself.
Submitted by Craig on
QLD 20 - NSW 6 (QLD 13+)
As the Thinker says with try scorer and MOTM - Inglis
Submitted by Ryan on
NSW 18 - QLD 14
MAN OF THE MATCH - CARNEY
FIRST TRY SCORER - UATE.....
Submitted by Dubai Dan on
QLD 28 – NSW 16
First Try - Cam Smith
MOTM - Cooper Cronk
and I'm not even a Melbourne supporter...!
Submitted by Sideline Joe on
Blues by 4.
Carney man of the match
Pearce first try scorer
Submitted by a on
I think QLD will win 34-26
Try scores Robbie Farah 6-0 NSW
Penalty goal Todd Carney 8-0 NSW
Try Brent Tate 8-4 NSW
Try Jonathan Thurston 10-8 QLD
Try Brett Stewart 14-10 NSW
Try Billy Slater 16-14 QLD
Try Jonathan Thurston 22-14 QLD
Half Time 22-14 QLD
Try Greg Bird 22-20 QLD
Try Nate Myles 28-20 QLD
Pently Goal Jonathan Thurston 30-20 QLD
Try Justin Hodges 34-20 QLD
Try Brett Stewart 34 26-QLD
Final score 34-26 QLD
I think their will be a sin bin for James Tamou
Brett Stewart will kick an 40-20 for NSW but it will be too late from them
I think Greg Inglis and Brent Tate wil denied them self a try
and NSW will give up after 70 minuntus
Submitted by Dubai Dan on
Hey A, could you be a little more thorough mate? I’d like to see the minutes in which the points are scored and the reason for the denied tries. Without this info I feel your predictions are general and a bit of a stab in the dark..! ;-)
Submitted by Craig on
Hey Thinker your 18-8 prediction was just about spot on, awesome tipping mate, hope your crystal ball is as good for the next one, no pressure..lol : )
Top job mate and a pretty good Origin game.
It’s time for Mal and the Qld selectors to mix it up, I’d look at that game as a loss because NSW had no idea except to tackle. Qld, if they could have got near the line would have scored 30.
Tate was sensational, MOTM for mine. I give credit to NSW for their determination, they held the Qld forward pack but just don’t have the combination or didn’t have the game plan to get the job done, not sure what all the talk in the media was about, I think Ricky picked blokes who have scored try’s for their clubs and hoped they would do the same for him magically, Blues had no plan except kick the ball high to the same spot and hope..they got lucky twice and really shouldn’t have scored a single point.
NSW will cut some players, it’s just in their nature. Uate will be lucky to find himself on the bench, T-Rex gone, Burher gone, Watmough in and another big man in. Ricky for reasons known only to him, has the best 5/8th this year NOT kicking or controlling the ball, Carney was nerves but was wasted, they need to utilise his long passing and kicking game, Pierce short game has to be brought in more, if NSW had an effective halves combo they would have won that game. Ricky needs to bring in a game plan coach, he just doesn’t get it.
Qld missed Lockyer, no doubt about that, his direction would have provided a way out when they were trapped in their own half, i was disappointed in Cronk, his kicking game wasn't up to the task and Qld at times looked dis-organised, far from the well drilled side we were all expecting. Id like to see a couple of changes, with no disrespect id drop Harrison and Cronk, bench Thaiday (only 7 hit-ups and 30tkls?, should have made 20 &50) Bring in Chery-Evans and Michael Crocker (desperately need a hard man).
Its difficult to be critical of Qld because the NSW defence was very good, but in all honesty we should have won by 20+, that side is much better than that, take out the few individual runs from the Blues and lucky drops, what have you got left?