South Sydney Rabbitohs (2nd) vs Melbourne Storm (3rd) – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

I mentioned it last week and I'll mention it again - if there is one side the Bunnies don't want to be taking on early in the finals series it's the Melbourne Storm. Their overall record against the purple machine is woeful. Even this year, with the Bunnies flying higher than ever, they couldn't find a way to win...and they played them twice. You would think that this enormous red and green forward pack would just plough straight through the Melbourne defence - add to that the quickfire dummy-half work from Issac Luke, the general kicking games of their halves and an undeniable strike force at the back in Greg Inglis...well it all looks like a winning combination. It doesn't win because they get out-smarted by the kicking games of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk. Both will endeavour to find the turf with their general kicking late in tackle counts, and their kick-chase (led by Cronk himself) is the best in the business. This means those big Rabbitohs forwards will travel almost as many yards trudging backwards as they do trudging forwards - and all that extra workload takes its toll and reduces their impact. Obviously the Bunnies can win this. They'll be favourites on the night and the Storm have been below par in recent weeks, but only Manly can come close to matching the Storm for finals experience. At this level, in these games, experience counts. Assume Cronk will test the Bunnies on the edges with his kicking game. It's a strategy that tends to bear fruit, and it's much more productive than trying to test Greg Inglis.

Verdict – Storm by 7

Man of the Match - Cooper Cronk

Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Storm 10

Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs North Queensland Cowboys (8th) – Saturday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

You don't have to trawl too deeply into the memory banks to get a guide on how these sides lined up, as these sides lined up just two weeks ago. That was a home game for Cronulla, and they played pretty well, but the Cowboys went on to win that game fairly comfortably. Cronulla are a funny side. Their top try scorer is the biggest player in their side (Andrew Fifita) and their (equal) next best try scorer is another big bopper in Jayson Bukuya - a guy who spends much of the game on the bench. In their entire back-line, their top try-scorer is unheralded halfback Jeff Robson. Those numbers (and their points differential this season) tell me where Cronulla focus much of their game, and it's up to the Cowboys pack of forwards to withstand the onslaught. They did so two weeks ago, and I think they'll do so again. Matt Scott returns from injury, and his composure and big-game experience will take the visitors a long way. And I couldn't be more pleased with the showing of Jason Taumalolo last week. It was against ordinary opposition, but he might be starting to show his potential and he can be a very important part of the furniture in North Queensland for many seasons to come. I was also pleased with the dummy-half work of the very well-related Jayden Hodges, who, along with Kostjasyn, is helping to complete the Cowboys puzzle in the all-important dummy-half role. Sharks are favourites - I like the Cowboys.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Man of the Match - Jonathan Thurston

Result - Sharks 20 defeated Cowboys 18

Sydney Roosters (1st) vs Manly Sea Eagles (4th) – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium Stadium

The Sea Eagles get their toe in the door with the one week suspension to Roosters prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves. How he gets a week off while Sam Burgess is free to play is a little bit baffling, but it won't be the last time the decisions of the judiciary leave me scratching my big beautiful head. These sides met twice earlier this season and the Roosters prevailed on both occasions, and I can't come up with enough compelling reasons to think they won't prevail again. Manly fans won't travel the hundreds and hundreds of metres required to get all the way to the Sydney Football Stadium. In a close contest, crowd support and the near faultless goal-kicking of James Maloney might prove the difference.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Man of the Match - Anthony Minichiello

Result - Roosters 4 defeated Sea Eagles 0

Canturbury Bulldogs (6th) vs Newcastle Knights (7th) – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

These sides have met twice this season, and the Knights were victorious in both. The Novacastrians have had their ups and downs this season, but when they've been up they've been up with the best of them. The Bulldogs are favourites...short favourites, but I was far from impressed with them last week, and I just feel like we're all waiting for the Bulldogs of 2012 to emerge. I haven't seen them yet, and if we are going to see them they've certainly left their run very late. Newcastle have a backline that can score points and daytime conditions should suit. Watch for late team changes for the Bulldogs. Hasler hasn't named Frank Pritchard or Greg Eastwood and either/or both could be surprise starters. Ben Barba has been named on the bench so we'll wait and see what happens there as well. Two of the cagiest coaches in the business face off in the finals. Imagine turning up to a poker night and finding those two either side of you at the table? I think Bennett might be slightly cagier, and I'm sure he took plenty of notes when the Broncos beat the Bulldogs last weekend. Can I really select three outsiders from the four games of finals football...Yes I can.

Verdict – Knights by 1 (golden point)

Man of the Match - Tyrone Roberts

Result - Knights 22 defeated Bulldogs 6

Wally Lewis - week one finals (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• RABBITOHS vs Storm
• Sharks vs COWBOYS
• ROOSTERS vs Sea Eagles
• BULLDOGS vs Knights