Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Leichhardt Oval

We had some big scores last weekend and I noticed a trend emerging. Then I went back over the entire season and the trend remained so I thought it was worth mentioning here. In 2013 there have been 21 games where a team has won by 24 or more points. In 19 of those games the home side won. The two exceptions prove the rule; one game was played at a neutral venue (Tigers vs Sharks at Allianz) and in the other the Titans lost about one quarter of their roster to injury in their loss to the Knights. Those of you that like to play the handicaps and the margin betting may want to slot that away in the memory bank for future reference. I'm not here to tell you the Cowboys won't win on Friday night, but I'm absolutely terrified of this game. The Cowboys are consistent underperformers in Sydney town, and they haven't beaten the Tigers in the harbour city since 2006. This is also that time of year when it's worth looking at the weather before you put your tips in, and the forecast for Sydney is 'horrible with scattered patches of fricken unbelievable'. We're going to have a wet track on Friday night, 20-30 knot southerlies and a temperature hovering in the low teens. I can't pick the Tigers on form against anyone and I certainly can't tip them against the Cowboys - a competitive loss to the Rabbitohs and a narrow loss to the Roosters is lengths better than what the Tigers are dishing out at the moment. But boy oh boy that weather worries me. Cowboys by 1-6 in what could be an ugly game.

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Tigers 22 defeated Cowboys 20

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

The same dismal conditions confront these sides but it hasn't exactly been balmy in Brisbane of late so the northerners should have adapted by now. The Broncos were most impressive against the Titans last week, but they picked up a couple more injuries last week with Jack Reed and David Stagg unavailable. Justin Hodges returns in the centres and a cold wet night will certainly test his hamstrings - let's see if he can get through this one. The Bulldogs were dog-ordinary last week and Krisnan Inu twisted his way to another suspension but I'm giving them another chance. Much of this game will be played in the middle third of the park and the Bulldogs have some advantage there. I can't imagine The Guru and The King will be with me but I'll take the home side in another low-scoring contest.

Verdict – Bulldogs

Result - Bulldogs 24 defeated Broncos 14

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – WIN Jubilee Oval

The last time the Raiders sacked a player for disciplinary reasons (Todd Carney) he repaid them by taking the Roosters to the grand final and picking up a Dally M medal. I can't see Josh Dugan winning a Dally M and I can't see the Dragons making the grand final, but his debut in the Red V was more than handy as he picked up a brace of tries and gave St George some much needed spark in attack. I can't quite get a handle on the Panthers form at the moment but they've won three of their last four and they look tremendous. Perhaps Ivan Cleary is as good a coach as Phil Gould thinks he is - the Warriors haven't been quite the same since he left. One thing to note is that Penrith haven't won a game away from home this season, and for that reason alone I'm taking the home side here.

Verdict – Dragons

Result - Panthers 19 defeated Dragons 0

Sydney Roosters vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

I've been putting together these footy tips for a while, and I doubt I've ever said what I'm about to say right now. The Storm can't win this game. They back up from a brutal (and long) Monday night fixture, they travel to Sydney and they face a team that keep on winning. I can hardly believe myself, but the Roosters are good things. I think I'm getting clucky.

Verdict – Roosters

Result - Storm 26 defeated Roosters 18

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – Brookvale Oval

The Sea Eagles face the same quick back-up as the Storm but at least they get to do so at home, and they do so against a team that have won just one game away from Canberra this season. I'll take the Sea Eagles at fortress Brookvale but I wouldn't be taking any silly odds about them. In fact, if you want a bet I'd be looking at one of those Sea Eagles winning at half time/Raiders winning at full time combo dealies (currently paying $9.00 or thereabouts). If the Raiders are close enough with 30 minutes to go I can see them running over the top of some tired Sea Eagles late in the game. In any case I'm tipping the home side, but I wouldn't be turning off the TV at half-time if I were you. Dangerous.

Verdict – Sea Eagles

Result - Sea Eagles 16 defeated Raiders 10

Parramatta Eels vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Mudgee Stadium

I thinks it's tremendous that this game is at Mudgee, and I think it's even more tremendous that Mudgee has a stadium. These sides met not so long ago and you may recall that this is the game that cost Ricky Stuary $10,000 when he was somewhat disappointed with the men in pink. The time for revenge is now and I expect the Eels to have most of the crowd behind them on Sunday afternoon. It might not look like it, but this could turn out to be the game of the round. The in-form Jarryd Hayne and the right foot of Chris Sandow to get the Eels home.

Verdict – Eels

Result - Titans 42 defeated Eels 4

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

The Warriors were well and truly spanked by Penrith but it's uncanny how many teams turn it all around in the space of a week. They'll be pleased to be back home and their record in New Zealand (two wins from five) isn't as bad as it reads. Those three losses were narrow and against quality opponents (Roosters, Rabbits, Bulldogs) and two of those losses weren't at Mt Smart. As much as I expect a better performance I'm not expecting a winning performance. The Knights by 1-6 points looks about right to me.

Verdict – Knights

Result - Warriors 28 defeated Knights 12

Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Monday night – Sharks Stadium

The Sharks haven't lost a game since Wade Graham turned up at ASADA headquarters and refused to participate in an art class. That may be just a coincidence but they do seem to have their minds on the job at the moment, and Paul Gallen returns to remind the NSW selectors he'll be ready for the Origin series. The Sharks seem to know how to rattle the Rabbitohs and they have a handy head-to-head record in recent times. But for all that I can't tip against the Bunnies. This will be a tight contest for much of the match until Greg Inglis lights the after-burners. I'm not here to paint you a picture but I'll give you a quick sketch - Rabbitohs 16, Inglis 8, Sharks 8. 

Verdict – Rabbitohs

Result - Sharks 14 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• Tigers vs COWBOYS
• BULLDOGS vs Broncos
• DRAGONS vs Panthers
• ROOSTERS vs Storm
• SEA EAGLES vs Raiders
• EELS vs Titans
• Warriors vs KNIGHTS
• Sharks vs RABBITOHS