South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canberra Raiders – Friday night – ANZ Stadium
History is only ever a guide, but it can be a pretty handy guide to have. In their last three clashes the bunnies have racked up 121 points against their counterparts from the capital, including a very convincing victory during the 2012 finals series. Both sides have improved since then, but the Bunnies have taken themselves to a whole other level entirely. I can mount a case for the Raiders based on their ability to lift against the very best sides (I cite their efforts against the Storm in recent seasons as evidence), but I can't tip them. Potentially the game of the round, and a closer contest than many may expect.
Verdict – Rabbitohs
Result - Rabbitohs 32 defeated Raiders 2
Wests Tigers vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Leichhardt Oval
I'm willing to give credit where credit is due. The Tigers have, under difficult circumstances, performed pretty darn well in recent weeks. Three wins from their last four is a mighty fine effort - and I didn't tip them once. I'm not tipping them here either. The loss of Widdop is a significant blow for the purple machine, but his replacement (Brett Finch) has a world of experience to draw on, and the big three look set to return. The Storm need to keep racking up wins to stay in touch with the Bunnies, and this is one team that knows how to rack up wins.
Verdict – Storm
Result - Tigers 22 defeated Storm 4
Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – Centrebet Stadium
On paper this looks one of the closer games this weekend, but one needs to cast their mind back a few weeks to recall the last time these sides met. The Panthers won 19-0, and they did that away from home. I'm not completely sold on that Panthers backline but I do like their pack of forwards, and Segeyaro adds plenty of spark off the bench. I'm not sure the Panthers can score a lot of points but, as a rule, you don't need to score too many points to beat the Dragons.
Verdict – Panthers
Result - Panthers 25 defeated Dragons 10
Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Hunter Stadium
The Knights haven't won a game in quite some time, but they've certainly been competitive. And it's worth noting that their last win was a Sunday afternoon game at home - a convincing 36 point win over the Bulldogs at that. It has, as a rule, been a timeslot where they perform their best. In fact, the last time they met the Titans was at 3pm on the Gold Coast, and they won that convincingly also. The Titans have been fantastic this season, but they're on a short back-up from Monday night and two of their most important contributors (Myles and Bird) have an even shorter back-up. The Knights at home.
Verdict – Knights
Result - Knights 46 defeated Titans 16
New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos – Sunday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium
I'm sure the Broncos coach will remind his troops that their last performance against the Warriors was rather disappointing. The Warriors racked up 56 points at Suncorp and have been walking ten feet off the ground ever since. They followed that win with victories over two of the big guns in the NRL (Sea Eagles and Roosters) and they're on an express service to finals football if they keep it up. Don't disembark yet my kiwi friends - I want to see your mob in September. The Broncos will make a game of this so if you're keen on a bet I'd be taking the Warriors to win by 1-12 points at $3.15 or thereabouts.
Verdict – Warriors
Result - Warriors 18 defeated Broncos 16
North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
My selection here is based on the assumption that Jonathan Thurston is well enough to play. He was well enough to play on Wednesday night so it seems a fair assumption. He is one player who plays well for his club during the Origin period and that alone is enough reason for me to select them this weekend. James Tamou returns from suspension (providing someone has organised a lift) and I expect he'll be up for a big game. If he turns up in the right mindset and Matt Scott brings some of that Origin form to club football the Cowboys will be winning at home.
Verdict – Cowboys
Result - Cowboys 24 defeated Sharks 4
Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles – Monday night – Allianz Stadium
Manly are still playing some very good football but two wins in their last nine weeks must be some concern to coach Geoff Toovey. Seven weeks ago they faced the chickens at Brookvale and the chooks were simply too good. I can't see the Sea Eagles turning the tables, particularly now that the Roosters have unveiled another talented halfback in Sonny Bill Williams. Seriously...who saw that coming? A great game to close out the round. Chickens chickens chickens.
Verdict – Roosters
Result - Roosters 18 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- RABBITOHS vs Raiders
- Tigers vs STORM
- PANTHERS vs Dragons
- Knights vs TITANS
- WARRIORS vs Broncos
- COWBOYS vs Sharks
- ROOSTERS vs Sea Eagles
Comments
Submitted by Baggy_Gee on
Love the tips this year Thinker, but shouldn't the Broncos be given some chance based on the win last night and that the forwards played quite well. Always a hard trip across the ditch but I reckon there is enough of a spark to get them over the line. Bronco's against your's and the Kings recommendation.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Ahhhh man ! How good were Canetoads last night ? They played the most perfect game of football last night, it hurt ! And I picked NSW to win the series ! That won't happen ! Here are my tips for round sixteen :
Rabbitohs - Raiders have too much going against them going into this game. There are just too many stats to me that say Rabbitohs will win ...
Storm - Storm will win this one but it could be close one ...
Dragons - How much difference can one player make to side and side's confidence ? Josh Dugan has really lifted the Red V Spirit since his arrival at club that's why I'm picking them to get one over Panthers in this game ...
Knights - Titans can't win away from home, Knights can only win from home, so my bet in this game that could go either way is on Knights ...
Warriors - Again we're on roll and don't see it ending till we get to Perth and even then, with everything else that been happening to us, we may just beat Bunnies there ...
Sharks - Cowboys are going from worse to worse, cool, that's why I'm picking Sharks in low scoring grueling contest of game ...
Roosters - How did they manage to beat Bulldogs last week ? I don't know about you but that cost me some serious cash ! I'm not betting against them again ...
Thanks again Thinker for all your tips !
Let's Gone Warriors ! ;-D
Submitted by a on
My tips are
Raiders Rabbitohs players will be tired here
Tigers Carmon Smith is out so I think you should change to the tigers
Panthers Trent Merrin suspended so Panthers it is
Titans Knights season is over her so Titans
Broncos only if their oirgin players play
Sharks only if Gallen play
Sea Eagles Well they will win if Malnoney does not play
Submitted by Guru Craig on
The Guru is in Newcastle for a few days..ill have my tips in this evening. Cleaned up big time on my Maroons!
Submitted by The Joker on
All of my tips are the same.. Except Manly will beat the chooks who have already reached their peak.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Surely Manly have to start putting some wins together after a poor recent run. Anyone else seeing a hard fought Manly win?
Submitted by vlad sleagles on
Wish I could see a manly win,but even with the snake wrangler back,I cant see it.chocs going to go lame,he doesn't look fit at all.so my tips are chookens,knights,bunnies,storm,warriors,and panthers.
Submitted by vlad sleagles on
No not this time,4 more rounds and we will bounce back.
Submitted by THE JOKER on
After a Re Study... ALL HOME SIDES :)
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Souths - The bunnies should beat the Raiders, they have a massive pack that rolls forward all night, slowing those boys down takes it toll and with poor weather this could be a bit of a wrestle. Im with the Thinker though, Souths will want to pay attention because Canberra will be in this game for awhile. Look for Souths close it out last 20mins.
Tigers - The Tigers have as the Boss said, had a few wins. Benji is playing for a contract and the number before those zero's needs to be a tad higher for Benj to be comfortable. Potter will want his team to have a real go at Leichhardt Oval and the Tigers will start fast i reckon, This is the first time in recent memory that The Guru has tipped the Tigers...don't let me down boys or you wont get a look in for more than a while! Melbourne will be without Cam Smith and their #6, Finchy will get a run but his best days were when i used to tip the cats regularly...
Panthers - Penrith continue to impress the 'Guru', i like the teams attitude and their ball movement is impressive. Ivan has his side performing at near peak level, that level is a long way short of the top 4-5 clubs, but as ive said in the past, you give 100% as a team and you will be surprised who you beat.
Knights - This is a really hard call, The Guru will be attending this game and i have a soft spot for Bennett's Knights' who briefly, only briefly remind me of the mid 90's Bronco's. Newcastle are a tough team to follow, they usually go well at home and as i write, im watching the careflight helicopter narrowly miss cleaning up a few cars while attempting take-off, the rain is that heavy. Now you'd think that would help the home side? The Knights are hungry enough i hope to want the 2 more.
Brisbane - The Bronco's are going to win this game, The G will have a few friendly gold coins on the boys to get revenge for the big loss the NZW put on them at home. Anthony Griffin will have the team ready for battle and im sure many of those blokes are fired up after watching their mates touch up the Blues. Heard a whisper the guy who paints the names on the carparks at Bronco's HQ is stocking up on Ms, big ones.
Cowboys - The streets of Townsville will be safe for at least 90 minutes on Sunday evening, Tamou the Terrible will be tormenting the Grubless Sharks at smiley stadium. NQ have to win this game and they will or the Brisbane carpark bloke may get a run with his big Ms up there.
Sydney - This game should be a ripper, NSW rep halves out last week and what happened? The Chooks didnt miss their halves much as Super Sonny went to town riding without his Maloney. Im looking for a repeat of that with few additions and i reckon Robinson will be too. SYD 1-12
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Massive congratulations to the QLD team, i haven't seen determination like that for awhile, what a game!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Can't agree more Guru QLD were just magnificient. Blues supporters all saying Refs cost them the game, can't have been watching the same game I was.Outplayed, outmuscled and made to look very ordinary. Bring on #3. This week all home teams except Tigers. Sorry Guru think the Broncs origin boys may be a bit tired and sore against a fresh Warriors at home. Good luck all with your punting.
Submitted by cycloneracing on
All home teams for me.
I quit watching #origin. So one-sided means no fun and after 8 years of losses, that's enough for me!
Submitted by mark ashford on
HEY cycloneracing don't give up man. Your blues gave the maroons a nice touch up in game 1 and were outplayed in #2 Will be a different story in game 3 back in Sydney. There is no greater game than origin...bet you watch it!
Submitted by Bali John on
All home teams apart from Manly who l love to hate but they should do it this week and Stewart is back as well. Great Origin game too. I knew Sammy would get a try here and he even opened the scoring!
Watched the footy show last night and don't all the Origin players, Smith, Malony and Gallen look like they are hurting. You too Billy!
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Don't be too hasty with the bronco's this week, Griffin has had them in camp for 8 days apparently, sort of Origin esq type of atmosphere. Brisbane are building for a run at the finals, they will win this game unless outplayed meaning i think The Warriors will have to beat them for 80 mins to get the points, im assured that no Bronco will be walking out there, it's all of nothing time.
The Guru feels good about Brisbane, not as good as i did with QLD, that was the bet of the decade, but i reckon they're solid.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Guru,
Well done on the Tigers - if only I knew about Cameron Smith I might have joined you.
Oh...and well done cleaning up in Origin Game II. Queensland were heavily backed before kick-off and I'm guessing there was a fair bit of 'Guru money' sprinkled amongst it.
All the best
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Thanks mate.... i could feel it in me waters, haha. Yes QLD did us proud, the Guru was on H2H and had them by margin 11-20.
Having a good weekend, had a little punt on the Wallabies last night, flipped the winnings on Wimbledon overnight and the sum total of that is now on Bris + New @ a very healthy number, Cows are good things too i reckon.
I sound like a mug punter...Bet with your head guys if you fancy one. The Guru likes Newcastle, Brisbane and NQ a lot. Bris have an +8.5 line if you're nervous.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Guru Craig...no doubt your pockets will be a bit lighter after the Broncos dipped out again yesterday. Close but no cigar. As Johnny Ray reminds us.....Let's Gone Warriors!!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hey Guru good call on the Tigers, just shows how good Smithy is. Broncos were unlucky...if Corey had nailed that penalty who knows? Heard the kiwi commentator say it was the best game he'd seen this year. This Friday night it's Broncs/Storm in Melbourne...any early thoughts?
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Gone The Warriors !!! ;-D
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Yea thanks guys, i didn't go too badly with Brisbane, i did lose on the 2 way with Newcastle but Won with a 2 way on New/NQ and a 5 way, Tigers and Bris at line+ New, NQ and Sths. Well ahead for the weekend thankfully.
The NZ v Bris game was very close, NZ won with an intercept try! I was very happy with The Bronco's effort, they had a few disallowed and got a couple of tough calls, wouldn't change that tip.
Mark..i was thinking the same thing last night, Brisbane haven't had much luck at AAMI stadium. Both sides almost need to win now, The Storm are falling back from the top and Brisbane are facing missing the eight. I dont know if The Bronco's can win yet, ill let you know my thoughts on Thursday or Friday.
Submitted by Lady Di on
Decided to give your Storm tip a miss and back WTI. Perfect round thanks very much! Boomshanka, back of the net and smell my cheese all in one go!!
Submitted by Guru Craig on
WTG LadyDi..always cool to tip the round!
Submitted by Lady Di on
Why thank you Guru Craig ... tis always a toss up between yours and The Thinker's tips so to get a full house round is great ... AND I get a free Whopper! Oo'er missus!
Submitted by bali John on
My god! I only wish l could get a full round this year. Maybe this week??
Lost Boncos and Manly last week. Was close. hahaha