Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Thursday night – AAMI Park

I feel compelled to say this is a danger game for the Storm. A short turnaround from a competitive game in Townsville, on the back of World Club Challenge duties in England - one has to consider the Bulldogs some sort of chance at a huge price. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs this is the 2012 Grand Final replay, and with the AFL season about to kick into gear the Storm will be keen to remind the good people of Melbourne they are a darn good footy team. They'll find a way to lift as they so often do, and when the Storm lift they win. Ben Barba hasn't been named on an extended Bulldogs bench so he's a highly unlikely starter, but even if Hasler parachutes him into the team I'll stick with the Storm at home.

Verdict – Storm

Result - Storm 22 defeated Bulldogs 18

Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Leichhardt Oval

By any measure I had a pretty ordinary week as a tipster in round two, but those results did reinforce a truism that has stood the test of time since Dally Messenger signed up with the Chooks. Here is the first lesson of season 2013 - it is better to make assumptions based on performances during the previous season than it is to make assumptions based on the first round of the current season. In making this error, I misjudged eight teams in round two - and got half the games wrong. If you had a look at the match-ups from last week and asked yourself 'who wins based on their performances in 2012?' - shabangabang...a perfect round. Sadly such extraordinary insight doesn't change our results from last week, but it might pay to remember that little gem of wisdom in the weeks ahead. With that wisdom in mind, one has to accept that the Tigers weren't quite as bad as the Eels in 2012. To give some credit, Parramatta are a better side than they were last year, but they should have beaten the Bulldogs last week and couldn't. Learning how to win can take some time - particularly when your team has a recent history of losing.  The Tigers to prevail in front of a packed Leichhardt Oval.

Verdict – Tigers

Result - Tigers 31 defeated Eels 18

Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – Skilled Park

On Sunday I was doing a bit of work around the yard - and the heat and humidity was killing me. Before I crawled into a shady refrigerator to die I raided the handbag of Mrs Thinker, then I collected up all the loose change I could find in the couch, and plonked the lot on the Titans to beat the Raiders in that 1.30pm game on the Gold Coast. It's nice to know I got something right last weekend. Conditions should be a little more pleasant for this game (4.30pm start) and the Sea Eagles, loathe as I am to admit it, are in very good form. Two convincing wins to kick-start their season, and it's worth noting the two teams they beat won their other games (Broncos over Dragons and Knights over Tigers) by big margins. And of course there's that all-important lesson I made mention of in the previous game preview. Would the 2012 Sea Eagles beat the 2012 Titans? Ummm...yes. Yes they would. If Manly can come to Suncorp and soundly beat the Broncos (who were celebrating their 25th anniversary) they can come to Skilled Park and beat the Titans. My good thing of the round.

Verdict – Sea Eagles

Result - Titans 16 defeated Sea Eagles 14

Sydney Roosters vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

It's difficult to gauge how well these sides are travelling at the moment. The Broncos should never have won last weekend (I'll get to their opponents in that game later on), while the Roosters picked up the points in New Zealand (but that form doesn't look too flash at the moment). Justin Hodges has been named in the centres but the Broncos have named a six-man interchange and I have a hunch that Hodges won't play. If he doesn't play Matt Gillett is likely to be named as his replacement in the centres, and if that's the case he has to contend with the speed of Michael Jennings and the off-loading of Sonny-Bill Williams on that right edge. I'd back a fit Hodges to contain those two but Gillett, talented as he is, will have his hands full on Saturday night. Both sides are stuttering in attack at the moment but the Roosters do look to have more point-scoring potential in them - particularly if Hodges is ruled out. Have a punt on a low-scoring game (if that's your thing) and stick with the chickens...just.

Verdict – Roosters

Result - Roosters 8 defeated Broncos 0

Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Shark Park

At some point this season the Sharks are likely to fall in a heap, and at some point this season the Warriors are likely to string some wins together and look like world-beaters. Both of these things could happen this weekend, but you'll go broke punting on it. The safe play is to assume the Sharks will win at home and the Warriors will lose in Sydney. For those considering the Warriors it's worth remembering they do have a better record in Australia during daylight hours - perhaps it's a time zone thing. And the Sharks have a history of losing a leg on Sunday afternoons. In any case I'll play it safe and take the team in form at home over the team out of form away from home. You know it makes sense.

Verdict – Sharks

Result - Sharks 28 defeated the Warriors 4

Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Centrebet Stadium

The Rabbitohs were pretty ordinary against the Sharks, but they were still good enough to win. They have plenty of upside about them, and I don't think they have enough downside to be poor enough to lose to the Panthers. Penrith, not unlike Parramatta, have improved on last season, but they have much more to do before they are competing with the big boppers. Rabbits by 20.

Verdict – Rabbitohs

Result - Rabbitohs 44 defeated Panthers 32

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday night – Canberra Stadium

Unless we have an unlikely draw one of these sides celebrates their first win on Sunday night, and if history is a guide the home side will be singing the team song at full-time. The Dragons have beaten the Raiders just once in their last ten attempts. Those really good St George sides that were just about unbeatable under Wayne Bennett couldn't beat the Raiders, so I can't see how this side can do it. The Dragons had the Broncos pinned to the mattress last weekend, and the Broncos flogged them. Their attack looks more predictable than a screenplay for an adult film, and if they score more than two tries I'll be very surprised. Two tries won't be enough. A happy ending for the Raiders, and who doesn't like a happy ending?

Verdict – Raiders

Result - Raiders 30 defeated Dragons 17

Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys – Monday night – Hunter Stadium

Nathan Tinkler and I have more in common than I realised. Neither of us have a lot of cash at our disposal, and we have to ask our wives for pocket money from time to time just to keep our heads above water. Of course Nathan has larger pockets than I do - what with his reasonably competitive footy team and his reasonably competitive private jets to maintain. Reasonable might not be enough on Monday night. The Cowboys were soundly beaten by the Storm last week, but the scoreline did blow out a bit toward the end. They looked sharp to my eye, and Michael Morgan gets his first chance this season to impress in the halves with Mr Thurston. I like him...I like him very much. This is the halves combination that can give the Cowboys a shot at a premiership. To do that, they need to be good enough to win this. 

Verdict – Cowboys

Result - Knights 34 defeated Cowboys 6 (sheesh!)

Wally Lewis - round three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• STORM vs Bulldogs
• TIGERS vs Eels
• Titans vs SEA EAGLES
• Roosters vs BRONCOS
• SHARKS vs Warriors
• Panthers vs RABBITOHS
• RAIDERS vs Dragons
• Knights vs COWBOYS