Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Allianz Stadium
It's a Manly home final in name only, with the old Football Stadium likely to have many more Burrough dwellers than nest- warmers on Friday night. Look no further than round 22 for a guide to this clash - where these sides met in a high quality contest and the Sea Eagles simply had no answers, eventually going down 23 points to 4. That game appears to have dented the spirits of the mob from Brookvale - since then they've lost to the Eels and the Cowboys and barely got home against the Titans and the Panthers (at Brookvale). The injuries to Matt Ballin and his logical replacement (Jamie Buhrer) make this clash even more onerous. Jayden Hodges is clearly a talent and a bright prospect but he's taking on the best here and I can't see him getting through 80 minutes. Manly might even keep Brett Stewart in cotton wool for another week, given that a loss doesn't end their season altogether. The Bunnies have also had an extra two days to prepare for this game, and they're not backing up after travel. With all that, Manly have too much finals football experience to be ruled out completely. I can't take the short odds for the Bunnies, but I have to tip them.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 14
Result - Rabbitohs 40 defeated Sea Eagles 24
Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium
I mentioned preparation time in the first final and I'll certainly mention it again here, as the Roosters had three extra days to prepare for this game. They'll need it though. With Friend, Guerra and Napa unavailable the Roosters engine room isn't firing with all its cylinders and their interchange bench looks inferior to their opponents. The Panthers are getting 10.5 points head start with the bookies and I'd be happy to take that. Ivan Clearly and Phil Gould will bring out the video of the 2003 Grand Final - when so few gave the Panthers any hope at all (and The Thinker bravely backed Luke Priddis to win the Clive Churchill medal at any old price....oh glory days indeed) What the heck! Let's watch it again - you get to see Ricky Stuart frustrated, John Lang celebrate with his son and a fairly famous cover tackle. This looks like the best game of the weekend, and Mitchell Pearce can slot a field goal to get the chickens home in the dying stages.
Verdict – Roosters by 1
Result - Panthers 19 defeated Roosters 18
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night - 1300SMILES Stadium
I guess Sam Thaiday was right, his season wasn't over after that suspension. The Broncos would have been sitting around all weekend with the beers on ice, but they never got to crack the lid (maybe just one at the back end of the Panthers/Warriors game). Some say they're lucky to be here, but they're going alright for a team that sacked it's coach...and kept him on until the end of the season. Things will get a little awkward if Griffin can get push his team deep into September. Let's not forget they lost three games at home in the dying seconds they never should have lost - oh what might have been. This is a tough road trip on the back of the tough road trip to Melbourne, but sometimes these road trips can galvanise a team. I won't be welcome at the family Christmas gathering this year, because I'm tipping an upset to end all upsets. I really hope Corey Parker brings his kicking boots - I don't want another one of those games where I tip the team that scores more tries but loses the game (and I've had a few of those this year).
Verdict – Broncos by 2
Result - Cowboys 32 defeated Broncos 20
Melbourne Storm vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon - AAMI Park
There's enough interchange players named for this game to field a starting side, but the key in or out is Captain Bumchin. If Cameron Smith plays the Storm win, and if he doesn't they may win anyway. Naturally I'm tipping the purple machine, who were clinically brilliant against the Broncos. Home ground advantage is a massive plus as well - I can't see Ennis or Reynolds getting away with their 'tactics' away from home. Back Will Chambers and Billy Slater in try-scoring markets...I keep imagining a play involving Cronk kicking to the corner, Waqa winning the air battle and batting it back to his support.
Verdict – Storm by 4
Result - Bulldogs 28 defeated Storm 4
Wally Lewis - finals week one selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will (usually) be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Sea Eagles vs RABBITOHS
- ROOSTERS vs Panthers
- Cowboys vs BRONCOS
- STORM vs Bulldogs
Comments
Submitted by mark ashford on
OK I'll go first for me it's...
Rabbits
Roosters
Cowboys
Storm
I would love to agree with the Thinker but can't see my beloved Broncs overcoming the Cowboys. (God I hope you're right!!!)
Don't think the Manly/Rabbits game is a done deal. Inglis and big Sam are carrying injuries and the Sea Eagles make a habit of getting up in this sort of game.
I think the Roosters will embarrass Penrith (biggest margin of the round) and the classy Storm to easily overcome out of form Dogs.
So GOOD LUCK if your team is still alive.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
And we're back !!! http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oyPfdwGruCM
Alright everybody good luck if your team has made it this far into the season, here are my tips for first round of finals ! Dude, let's do this !
Rabbits - Looks like NRL is going to get grand final they've always wanted since modern era began in 1982 with axing of Newton Jets from competition. Cause of that I'm picking Christmas Bunnies to win this game against Manly Sea Eagles by eight. Final score 26-18.
Roosters - Penrith Panthers were better team on weekend but that won't stop me wanting Roosters to beat them by a huge significant margin after what they did to Warriors on Sunday Night. That's right, I want Roosters to get medieval on Panthers. I want to see Games Of Thrones style retribution. I want to see Jamal Indris tarnished ! Matt Moylan usurp ! I want to see that midget Jamie Soward punched so hard in vagina it starts to look like wizard sleeve ! Roosters by twenty. Final score 32-12.
Cowboys - As much as we all love Broncos, Broncos shouldn't even be here but that doesn't mean they don't deserve to be ! That looking back on last weeks games a place for the top eighth spot has played out like old time western movie with Broncos (Good), Eels (Bad) and Warriors (Ugly). Still for me it's Cowboys by thirty. Final score 34-4.
Bulldogs - My upset pick for round. Forget Cameron Smith is out or not, if Brisbane Broncos were almost fully able beat Storm at home last week, I think Bulldogs should have it in them to beat them this week giving us all a Sea Eagles VS Bulldogs semi final for next week. That and bringing it back to westerns anybody remembers Back To Future III ? I just got it last week when I bought myself copy of Johnny Depp's Lone Ranger. Can anybody explained to me why Doc Brown has to use train to send Marty back to future because they're out of petrol ? Didn't he just bury Delorean ? Why doesn't he just go back to where he bury it and take petrol out of that and put into other Delorean ? Makes no sense whatsoever to me. Bulldogs by two. Final score 14-12.
Thanks again Thinker ! Thanks everybody ! Go Roosters ! Raise their Villages ! Burn their Crops ! Rape their goats ! Whatever you do just beat Penrith Panthers ! ;-D
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Souths – Beware the fade. Manly are goooone if you listen to the general opinion of footy fans everywhere. The Sea Eagles powered through the latter part of the season with bookies paying out the minor premiership in error some weeks ago. South Sydney, the battlers club from Redfern boast some of the highest paid stars this side of a telescope and they too have had their fair share of fade over the past few seasons, but as we stand on the day after many fell, these side are closer than we may think. Manly have the experience, they know how to dig, to eke out wins from near certain loss. The Guru is backing the rabbits through the sheer force of will that GI and the Burgess clan bring to this encounter. Size matters and Maguire has it all over Tooves. If anything, it will be interesting to see the refs handle the suggestive help, Jamie loves a chat. Go Rus Go! Bunnies 1-12
Sth 18 – Man 12
Roosters – KGB Cleary and Gulag Gould have weathered the cold war in the west. The Pennies are about to taste the fruits of work that has taken the club from Leagues Siberia to the NRL finals. Penrith 2014 is an example to all clubs of what can be achieved through intelligent hard work, the effort put into this side over the recent past has been enormous. As will be the task on Saturday when they take on the reigning premiers. Robinson’s Roosters are strong favourites and will take plenty of confidence into the game. The big chook forwards and fast outside men include plenty of household names and with a retiring captain loved by all, we should see a full effort for the entire 80. The Guru will be watching for Ivan’s ingenuity, the resilient coach knows his side and several areas of his defensive structure when playing a side of this calibre will be tweaked to cover the short passes favoured by his counterpart, Robinson the rookie coach who won the lot. Penrith have improved immeasurably throughout the year while the Chooks have been a bit ehh… but this is business time, stars shine in September and Sydney has more firepower and experience, Penrith will fight the good fight but struggle to hold onto the big men in the last 20 or so. Roosters 1-12
Syd 20 – Pen 12
Cowboys – About 5 years ago in the late 1990s…have a go at the Guru’s special math here, 1997 was only a few years ago, really! The Guru called Townsville home. Though even then the ‘G’ was a Broncos tragic. Maths lessons and being 18 forever aside, this game is worth watching and recording if your boots have spurs. NQ have never reached their potential, the ingredients for producing bronzed trophies was only discovered this year in Auckland and taking that into account perhaps the Cow’s administration have adopted the Guru’s penchant of unorthodox mathematics. JT just about deserves a premiership of his own, the bloke is the single hardest working player this decade and he will be the difference in this game. Brisbane will give everything they have. Sammy paid the QLD player tax at the judiciary last week and his return will be welcomed, however the Bronco’s Achilles heels will be cut to shreds by the brilliance of Thurston’s magic. Brisbane have chopped and changed the run on side so many times this year that no one knows what really works and what doesn’t. It’s been a bit of a mess! A new dynasty approaches, the men will give but they won’t have enough. Hook’s last game as Bronco’s coach will be worth watching. Cowboys 1-12
NQ 25 – Bris 14
Storm – The Coach with one of the greatest first names to ever be given may require more than water to sooth the belly ulcers after Sundays game against the Dogs. Dessie’s side have been known to give a few penalties away and the master agitator will be ready with his sledging game set to +10. The Menace will be in full effect against Melbourne who may want to keep a plastic surgery team on standby, just in case the Redhead from ol’blighty gets a bit hungry. The Guru hears Storm officials have added a catering van into the visitor’s dressing room and fitted Slater out with go-fast boots just to be sure. Bellyache’s Storm will be too classy for the Dogs. Look for a rough start with hints of biff throughout, battle of the nines all night long. Melbourne 13+
Mel 30 – Dogs 12
Submitted by The Thinker on
Love it Guru...didn't realise you had a connection to Townsville....I lived there for a little while myself (about 18 years). Felt longer :-)
Johnny Ray,
Very....ummm....descriptive. You've created a vision in my mind that I'm struggling to let go.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
How come so much hating on Penrith JR?
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
@ Steel Panther - We should of never of let Ivan Cleary go ! There I said it. I feel better :(
Submitted by a on
Here are my tip
Rabbitohs 22 tries Lote Tuqiri 2 Dylan Walker 2 Alex Johnston goals Reynolds 1/5 Sea Eagles 12 Peta Hiku goals Lyon 2/2
Man of the match Adam Reynolds
Roosters 20 tires Roger Tuivasa-Sheck Dylan Napa Anthony Minichiello goals Maloney 4/5 Panters 10 Matt Moylan Dallin Watene-Zelezniak goals Soward 1/2
Man of the match Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
Cowboys 46 tires Kyle Feldt 2 Michael Morgan 2 Tautau Moga 2 Ray
Thompson Ashton Sims goals Thruston 7/8 Broncos 20 tries Corey Oates 2 Daniel Vidot Lachlan Maranta goals Parker 2/4
Man of the match Michael Morgan
Storm 42 tries Marika Koroibete 2 Mahe Fonua 2 Ben Roberts JesseBromwich Billy Slater goals Smith 7/7 Bulldogs 14 Mitch Brown Dale Finucane goals Trent Hodkinson 3/3
Man of the match Ben Roberts
Submitted by SNEEKYS on
I believe 4 teams will win this weekend.
Submitted by christine on
i agree with everyones tips so best of luck to all except for the thinker taking bronco's over cowboys i don't think that is wise i wouldn't be doing that .
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Sorry, meant to say thank you to everyone last week but got sidetracked. As some have already mentioned, congratulations to the “King” for winning the tipping competition this year. Well done everyone else too, especially our friend “a” who looked the likely winner for a long period of time. Bad luck brother but well done anyway.
Special thanks to the Thinker first and foremost for putting up the site and thanks too to The Thinker’s Little Helper for all his hard work. While I’m at it, many thanks to everyone else who posted comments. It’s good for a “newbie” such as myself to see different opinions. Looking forward to next year and more videos from my friend Johnny Ray. Peow! Peow!
Thanks also to the Thinker and the Guru for their insightful analysis each week and the comedic genius they throw at us mere mortals. Look forward to it each and every week. Cheers guys.
To receive congratulations from the Guru was pretty humbling. Thanks Guru. Might just be a case of “blind luck” from someone still coming to grips with the week in, week out pressure of tipping winners. This Great Game can be humbling sometimes and I love it! No way would I claim to know as much as you guys but glad I managed a half decent total this year.
My “wish upon a star” last week panned out beautifully. The Cowboys did the right thing and beat the Boys from Brookie and indeed gifted my beloved Chooks the minor premiership. Seems my “dream” came true! Happy Days!
Anyway, there’s another 4 games on this weekend and it’s getting late in the evening over here in the West so let’s get into it…
Rabbits - I would think the Bunnies’ big blokes might run all over the top of a depleted Manly outfit and potentially cause some serious damage. Manly haven’t been that flash of late and just imagine their “average” last month or so will catch up with them Friday night. Free buses or not, I’m tipping the Manly faithful might be going home somewhat sad. Bunnies by 6+
Roosters - the minor premiership will give the Chooks some added confidence, not that they need it all that much. I reckon they’re ticking along nicely at the moment and seem to be “peaking” just at the right time. Last week’s thriller against the Bunnies was a real test. Thank the NRL gods they managed to hold out. Yes, the Chooks are a good defensive unit but it irks me that they give so many penalties away. If Penrith can somehow exploit that then we might have a game on our hands. Gotta remember the Panthers finished 4th and deservedly so, but they have players dropping like flies and I’m banking on the hope that this will take its toll. The Mighty Chooks by 8+
Cowboys - I see that the Broncos have won 74 per cent of games they’ve played in Townsville. So? All that means to me is that the Broncos have “lost” in Townsville 26 per cent of the time. A winning ratio doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll win next time out does it? Gotta remember the Cowboys are “running hot” at the moment and have won 7 of their last 8 games. The one they lost was to Penrith and that was only by 1 point! Mind you, I’m not ruling the Broncos out of contention at all. Big Sam will be back ready to fire and I’m sure the rest of them will have a fair old crack at this. For mine though, I’ll stick with the Cowboys by 10+
Storm - really can’t see how the Doggies are going to win this. Their recent form is woeful (last week’s effort against the Titans should be proof of that). The Hush Puppies have only won 2 of their last 8 games! That just ain’t doing it for the Newbie. Mind you, one guy I do have a lot of time for is the big Pom James Graham. I for one, hope he has a good game. The Storm have the obvious better recent form so without going into it any further, I’ll be tipping the Storm Troopers by 16+
OK, as always, good luck to those supporters whose teams are in the finals. May we see some exciting footy! Cheers.
P.S. Is Johnny Ray challenging the Thinker and the Guru in the LOL stakes? Johnny my man, you wrote some absolute “gold” in your comments on the Roosters/Panthers game! Love it! Keep it up and then expand on it next year. Cheers bro’.
Submitted by The Joker on
Bunnies Chooks Cows Dogs
Submitted by christine on
a it didn't work this time but that doesn't mean it doesn't work so stick to doing so again next season but start it earlier in the season like around week 7 & get as far ahead of everyone else as you can in points so you have room to move for error ok . I won't steer you wrong because I won't be going on the tipping ladder i'll just be posting comments the way I have this season so i'm no threat to you or anyone else for that matter ok .
Submitted by a on
Wally Lewis tipped Broncos so I am Relaying on Cowboys to win
Submitted by mark ashford on
OK guys first time I've done this but I'm changing my tips.
Manly
Roosters
Broncos
Storm
I think Manly has been foxing and the Broncs are going to do it for Hook. Go you Broncos!!! can't tip against them in what could be their last game this year.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Afternoon football fans,
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Submitted by christine on
a I hope cowboys win to I mean it's cowboys home ground & home ground gets advantage & they have the line & the odds & they won 7 of their last 8 games which says they are doing something right so be positive cowboys will win ok .
Submitted by a on
Cowboys better this is do or die for me in the tipping they are my team so they better
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Big up Thinker, the only bloke to go 13+...The Guru had a feeling Sths might get a few late but...nothing like this.
Submitted by christine on
my favourite souths player / kiwi would have to be issac luke he is a sensational player that does so much work on the field , well done issac more credit to you .
Submitted by a on
Has Steel Panther giving up?
Submitted by christine on
a some people are saying wally has already won the tipping comp for the regular season which means 26 weeks prior to finals but the thinker did say he was including finals to you when you asked about tipping during finals so has wally won yet or is there still a chance or not I don't know perhaps you need to ask the thinker?
Submitted by a on
I think I need Cowboys to win to be any chance here
Submitted by Steel Panther on
At least some one missed me lol. Thanks a. Would you believe I checked the site yesterday and was waiting to see what Wally tipped then totally forgot. A busy day at the office completely side tracked me!! I'm madder at myself than JR was at Penrith!!! I'm picking Roosters 13+, Cowboys 1-12 and Storm 13+ in the other three games. Have to say too that I thought the Bunnies would win last night but definitely expected a tighter game. Good luck everyone!!
Submitted by christine on
a ok I hope cowboys do win & you get it .
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Roosters ! http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X6tKZ-cg4RI :'( :'( :'(
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
:-(
Submitted by christine on
Penrith beating roosters , priceless
& a cowboys need I say more
Submitted by a on
Its not over for me yet i AM JUST 1 BEHIND wALLY SO WATCH OUT
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Vv3IfBs4JwU Bulldogs ! :-)
Submitted by christine on
a & anyone else for that matter that might have an opion can cowboys beat roosters next week ?
Submitted by b on
Cowboys to beat roosters! You heard it first from b!
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hi Christine.
Sure mate after what I saw on the weekend the Cows can go all the way. Depending on suspensions (Tariq Sims and W Hargreaves will probably be out but that will balance it up) but hell don't listen to me I got 0 out of 4 !!!
Well done to the Joker for picking the Dogs.
Submitted by christine on
Hi mark .
Don't write yourself off like that, we all have bad weeks in tipping & I have seen you do a lot better than that before, what I would like to see happen is a cowboys / Penrith grand final rather than have the same teams in it year after year you know something different for a change would be good .
Submitted by mark ashford on
Hey Christine agree 100% a Cowboys-v- Penrith GF would be fantastic. Jarrod W Hargreaves from the Roosters was not charged. His "hit" on Manly's King was a shocker and resulted in King leaving the field. So it seems Roosters players are exempt from the judiciary. I fear the NRL wants a Roosters -v- Rabbits GF this year.
Submitted by christine on
Yeah Mark I know they're called protected species & there are a few that fall into that category ie: the whole Melbourne storm team , roosters & jarryd hayne they're all cats that milk penalties & whinge about the slightest little things they are enough to make you sick, it's supposed to be a game for men but they haven't got the balls for it pardon the pun I couldn't help myself .