South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters – Thursday night – ANZ Stadium
It's been 21 weeks (it really has) since the Chooks claimed the 2013 grand final. That side remains virtually intact but for the retired Luke O'Donnell. His more than capable replacement is Dylan Napa - a player we'll be hearing about frequently this season and beyond. the Roosters are, for the most part, still a young and improving side. Given the levels they reached in 2013 it has me wondering if there is a team in the NRL that can rise to the challenge. The Rabbitohs are testing a new halves pairing and it may take them some time to get the combination right. Cracking the Roosters defence wasn't easy last year, and I don't expect it to be any easier this year. A massive game, obviously, but it's chicken on Thursday night for me.
Verdict – Roosters
Result - Rabbitohs 28 defeated Roosters 8
Canterbury Bulldogs vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – ANZ Stadium
Here's a little something I noticed while I was working my way through the team sheets for this round - about 85% of captains these days are forwards. Given the increased number of 80 minute forwards in the game I suppose I shouldn't be surprised. Speaking of captains and forwards, Corey Parker takes over the reins at Bronconia from another forward (Sam Thaiday) who would prefer to focus his efforts on being a forward. Corey Parker has a pretty woeful win rate as captain, although to be fair his record isn't as bad as it looks (many of his losses as captain have been during State of Origin periods when his side has been understrength). No doubt Ben Barba will be getting plenty of attention on Friday night, and I'm sure my favourite bully Michael Ennis will have some choice words for him at some point in proceedings. Both sides will be primed after disappointing campaigns in 2013 but I'm leaning slightly to the Bulldogs - I need to see this playmaking experiment at the Broncos (Hoffman and Barba rotating between five-eighth and fullback) before I can believe in it.
Verdict – Bulldogs
Result - Broncos 18 defeated Bulldogs 12
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – Centrebet Stadium
Many of you may have read that I'm keen on the Panthers this year. I'm keen on them this weekend as well, although it's worth noting that Jamal Idris has been named but probably won't play. He's a big out, but not as big as the absence of Jarrod Mullen for the Knights. I think the Panthers have a significant advantage up front, and the absense of the Mullen kicking game has me convinced the Panthers will be dominating field position for much of the 80 minutes. I love the Panthers pack of forwards, I love their interchange forwards and I love their two number nines...I think Jamie Soward and Peter Wallace will love it too.
Verdict – Panthers
Result - Panthers 30 defeated Knights 8
Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Brookvale Oval
Some significant exclusions for the home side with both regular wingers (Wolfman and Taufua) ruled out, although I am a fan of both their replacements (Cheyse Blair and Peta Hiku). Co-captain Jason King is also out, and Josh Starling steps in and I must admit he's not a player I'm familiar with. He'll have his work cut out for him, as he'll be confronted by an enormous pack of purple forwards (and an even bigger bench). The team with the dominant forward pack usually wins, and I'm quite certain the Storm have the upper hand here. That said, I can't warm to Ben and Ben (Hampton and Roberts) the playmaker men for the Storm. I don't like to knock anyone playing in the NRL but Ben and Ben aren't going to give you what you'll get from Cherry-Evans and Foran. So I'll break with convention and pick the side with the weaker pack of forwards. The Sea Eagles won't create as many opportunities as the Storm, but they'll have more success converting the opportunities they do get into points.
Verdict – Sea Eagles
Result - Storm 23 defeated Sea Eagles 22
North Queensland Cowboys vs Canberra Raiders – Saturday night – 1300SMILES Stadium
Nine-a-side football is a long way from the regular version of the game, but what the Cowboys delivered at the Auckland Nines certainly impressed me. Their defense had all the hallmarks of those teams that win premierships, and there are many at the club that are super impressed by new coach Paul Green. If the Cowboys can finish the season in the top four they can win the competition, but to do so they need to keep racking up the points at home. A win over Canberra, a team that clearly don't like airports and hotels, is a good way to get their 2014 campaign off on the right foot.
Verdict – Cowboys
Result - Cowboys 28 defeated Raiders 22
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium
Most of the rugby league world will tell you the Tigers will win the spoon this year, but their trial form leading into round one has been pretty darn good. Taking trial form on face value is fraught with danger, but I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt here - particularly against an opponent as spectacularly average as the Dragons. Most will be tipping the Dragons here, but I'm quietly optimistic that most will be wrong.
Verdict – Tigers
Result - Dragons 44 defeated Tigers 24
Parramatta Eels vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday night – Pirtek Stadium
If there's one thing I don't like doing, it's tipping the Warriors away from home in a night game. Their record under those circumstances is too bad to ignore. I'm not ignoring it completely, but I also can't ignore my sense that the Eels are three or four very good players away from being a genuine outfit. They'll make a game of this, and they can certainly win it, but they'll be doing so without my support.
Verdict – Warriors
Result - Eels 36 defeated Warriors 16
Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans – Monday night – Remondis Stadium
If you can believe Sharks captain Paul Gallen (and I'm not sure that I can) then Todd Carney is next to no hope of lining up on Monday night. With or without Carney I expect we'll see a fired-up home side on Monday night. Luke Lewis and Jeff Robson are also out, so I expect Wade Graham or John Morris to slot in. It's hardly ideal, but the Sharks will win this one based on sheer grunt and willpower. The weight of money is behind the Titans, but I'll stick with the ASADA Sharks in what looks like a brutal encounter. Keep your eye out for Dave 'Coaltrain' Taylor - apparently he's fit this year.
Verdict – Sharks
Result - Titans 18 defeated Sharks 12
Wally Lewis - round one selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.
- Rabbitohs vs ROOSTERS
- Bulldogs vs BRONCOS
- Panthers vs KNIGHTS
- SEA EAGLES vs Storm
- COWBOYS vs Raiders
- DRAGONS vs Tigers
- Eels vs WARRIORS
- Sharks vs TITANS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Apologies for the lateness of my selections in round one folks. I'll endeavour to be a little less tardy in the rounds ahead.
One more sleep....hooray!
Submitted by Guru Craig on
Roosters – Bloody Unions, The Guru has taken note of the attention Unions have received in the press recently, now I hear South’s are having a problem with one. The ERU it seems, whoever those bastards are have got Sammy to turn scab! The Chooks started the year on fire and thoroughly deserve to be premiership favs. Robinson and his band of merry roosters look slick and fast, too much speed and precision for all but a few of the competition. The ‘G’ believes Maguire will find it tough to get the combination right and I’d be surprised if Sammy’s decsion benefits his brothers much.
Bulldogs – The Bronc’s have a hard ride this season to get back into the winner’s circle. Success doesn’t come easy in the NRL and with the Doggies waiting at the first bend, Coach Griffin has named a side that looks strong on paper at least, we’ll see how they go. The Guru is looking forward to Hoffman playing in the #6. Safe tip is the Dogs, Brisbane are yet to prove they can score enough points. And look shaky on their goal line.
Knights – Wayne needs his boys to start with a bang, forget the last few one point opening game defeats and get on with the task. Newcastle have been molded and shaped by the great man into what at times resembles a decent footy side. Tyrone Roberts is the new weapon of choice in the #7 and The Guru has been very impressed, watch this bloke, superstar on the way up. The Panthers do play well at home, but don’t expect too much from Soward and Wal yet. Guru is tipping Newcastle in a high scoring affair.
Manly – The Eagles will ride the wind of this Storm and start the year with a victory over arch rivals Melbourne. Manly shouldn’t be troubled too much by the rookie halves Bellamy is playing. The G feels they will be consumed by the predatory birds and sent packing back to dreary Melbourne.
Cowboys – Ricky and his crazy team of scientist have had the blokes preparing for the Armageddon or Bird flu or something. Google the Raiders training pics…Its not the Hun Rick its only the Cowboys, but then again…NQ start the season with winner’s blood coursing through their veins thanks to their great work in the Nines and Guru thinks they’ll finish on top this weekend too. NQ 13+
Dragons – Errrh I dunno. That’s about the gist of this one. The Guru is going with the Dragons based simply on the second half of their Charity shield performance, which showed some sign of life and points potential. STG have to score points. That’s all it takes Stevie boy. For the record the Guru hopes you keep your job…I also hope for World peace, another few Bris premierships back to back and plenty of other fanciful things. yet, there is hope my son. The Dragon have firepower in that backline and the ‘G’ reckons Morris is the man to climb the ANZ mountain, he will score, yes he will.
NZW – The Guru is interested in this game. NZ need to prove they’re serious about 2014, right here straight up no excuses, show the comp you mean business. The Eels are slippery customers at home and many a visiting coach has had his lines snagged on that ancient stadium when he was expecting a nice easy 2 point dinner. NZ should by all accounts annihilate the poor old Eels who are fielding a team that would struggle to get more than 2 or 3 players in any other clubs top 25. Hayne, its time to earn that paycheck, you’ve got a bit to prove this year, you’re only as good as your last game.
Sharks – As the Boss said, the team brought to you by our nation’s finest enforcers of healthy living poses a bit of pickle (unsalted of course). It seems the Sharkies are dropping like flies with a ‘New look side’ to take the field against the Coast. Rumors have it that Flanno’s been accused of flouting the ‘phone cap’, what with all the smart phone coaching, poor ol Shane’s bill has gotten a please explain from the Mrs. The Guru reads with interest the fanciful talk some RL jurno’s have suggested of hot air balloons and blimps…if only they knew. The Shires finest have Flanno well covered, some local champs have planned for such and have constructed the ‘Shire super stealth coaching system’,(patent pending) basically a folding chair with several helium balloons tethered to a VL commy in the carpark. Genius.
Submitted by mark ashford on
Well here we go again. Love the comments from both Thinker and Guru. With Thinker except for the Dragons, they must start well. Broncos / Dogs will be a close affair with the Dogs prevailing ...just. Good luck all with those comps.
Submitted by Johnny Ray on
Awesome ! We're back ! We're back ! We're back ! God how did I missed this ! And depending dude on what happens with ASADA investigation, it still means for me that we've got six, seven, fun, full on months of "Drugby League" to watch ! F***k Yeah ! Let's get on with this week's predictions :
Rabbitohs - Have we almost forgotten how close Chooks came to being beaten in last year's Grand Final ? If it wasn't for final ten minutes total exhaustion from their opponents ( that was granted, caused by Chooks impregnable defense ), the Sea Eagles would of gone on to win that game. I expect alot better fitness from Bunnies that why I'm going with them in incredibly close match. Dude this is guarantee to be the game of round !
Broncos - I picked Broncos to be one surprise success stories of the 2014 season in my yearly predictions last week and personally I'm sticking with it because they can't beat this depleted Bulldogs line up, then that means already one team I picked to make top eight won't be there in September.
Panthers - Knights are my team from last year that won't make top eight. I also don't pick Panthers to be there either but I do pick them to beat them in Penrith on Saturday night in match that really could of gone either way.
Storm - Melbourne Storm have won something like eight, nine or ten of their successive opening first round matches. It's stat that I'm not willing to bet against that's why as much as it hurts me saying this I'm going with Melbourne Storm to beat Manly in battle for Brooky. That and god I love to hate Manly Sea Eagles. I do. I loathe them. I really, really, don't like them.
Raiders - The Raiders ? To beat Cowboys ?? Are you mental Johnny Ray ??? Hey I resent that ! I don't go crazy I just go normal from time to time ! That and I said expect Ricky Stuart coached Raiders will be along with Bronco's surprise success story in last week's 2014 yearly predictions and also said then that Raiders would be beat Cowboys so I'm saying it again. Cowboys won't know what has hit them when boys from Canberra take the field on Saturday night up in Queensland !!! That and just to show you guys how crazy I really am, I'm calling this my sure thing, guaranteed pick of round !
Tigers - The Dragons are slowly turning into a mythical creature, with lots people now talking about ancient tales of greatness from times long gone.
Eels - Yeah and you know talking about Raiders, I I heard that Ricky Stuart in preparation for his coaching role of Raiders used to leave his house for Bruce Stadium with Gatorade tipped over his head just so he would know what winning feels like again ! That's how much of team of losers the Eels have become the last few years because of excessively crap coaching and bad board management. Sounds exactly like Warriors. That's why I'm so going for Eels to win this game, not just because of home advantage but because Warriors have lost their last four or five opening rounds of the season and that's just another stat that I'm not going to bet against !!!
Sharks - Sharks will win this in spite of everything else that is happening around them. That and I just want to say who's idea was it when AFL is still number one sport in Southern Hemisphere to have all their opening games bar one, in Sydney ? Wouldn't it make more sense promotion wise to have there all in different cities across the city ? Anyone ? Man and they say I'm crazy ! Thanks Thinker ! Go Warriors ! Kiwi Power ! Peow ! Peow !
Submitted by a on
Here are my tips
Roosters They will win the season opener here
Broncos I think they will beat the Bulldogs here
Panthers I think they are good team this year
Storm Manly are crap this year
Cowboys Go Cowboys they should be the wooden spoon favourites here
Dragons I think they should beat the Tigers here
Eels I think they will be a much better team this year
Sharks I think they should be the Titans here
Submitted by Linnie85 on
Always check in here for all your tips !! Keen as not long to go now :) good luck to all in ur tipping comps still pissed off at my 2nd place last year by 0.02 still dirty haha NEVER change your tips haha
Submitted by The Thinker on
Ah Johnny Ray....picking up where you left off last year.
Well done sir....well done indeed
Submitted by mark ashford on
Congrats Johnny Ray hope you're right about the Broncs as well. Is Inglis the strongest man playing NRL? Thank God he's a Queenslander (now don't start you Blues!!)
Submitted by christine forb10 on
Hi thinker if souths can just maintain what they did in round 1 for the rest of the season & step it up a notch for finals they could go the distance , i was impressed they beat the chooks last years finalists.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I can't see last night as being anything more than a blip in the radar for the Chooks. It's very early days. Well done JR on tipping the Bunnies. Your logic makes no sense to me but how often does logic go out the window when it comes to tipping in the NRL.
Submitted by Lady Di-saster on
Hi Thinker and team tipsters (or should that be tipplers?)!
Welcome back and thanks again for last year - hoping to make it to the top of the tipping table this year as I only found you guys half way through last season!
Johnny Ray off to a blinder already eh? Whodathunkit???
Probably not a possibility and probably more work for youse Thinker, but one suggestion I would like to offer is a tabulated form guide from your regular tippers - you, Wally, Guru, JR and "a" - with the full reasoning underneath as it currently is - just something to give us random bludgers a one page look!!
Anyhoots - keep up the good work all and I shall - as last year - merely sup from the fount of league knowledge and pretend greatness in the office tipping comp!!
Cheers....
Submitted by Thinker's Little Helper on
Hi Lady Di-saster ... I've actually been working on something a little bit like your suggestion. No promises yet but stay tuned.
Enjoy the season everyone.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Johnny Ray flies out of the boxes....two games....two roughies....two winners.
Keep your eye on him folks.
Submitted by a on
Lets hope Cowboys will win
Submitted by Rick on
Hello everyone great to see the season back in full swing I look forward to a fun year of tipping.
Submitted by a on
Where is my name for the tipping competition Im a guest tipper I should be there in the competition to
Submitted by Lady Di-saster on
Awesome stuff Thinker's lil elfer! Liking the new look n feel of the tipping stats and links to tippers.
a - you're probably not on the list because you don't give a full and reasoned explanation for your tips - just a one liner doesn't really cut it methinks. Also - you were a bit of an ar5e last year having a pop at JR regularly and frankly we can do without it.
Submitted by Steel Panther on
I know it's late. Very late in fact but I can honestly tell you Thinker that I managed a mere 2 correct tips last week. Being in such elite company as yours and Guru Craig's sadly gives me no degree of comfort. I will be placing my tips through the proper channels this week. Here's hoping for an improvement. Well done JR. 5 out of 8 sure is an impressive start.
Submitted by a on
Look if their is something you want me to improve on to get in the competition you tell me than I will improve it than I just want to be in the compertition
Submitted by Brett Leech on
It's only Round 1,The Thinker is a clever man anyone would be foolish to right him off!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Steel Panther,
I'll see if the system lets us add your two points from round one. Good luck.
a,
I'm willing to include you in the comp but lets try and keep the silly stuff to a minimum this year shall we.
Submitted by Lady Di-saster on
Thinker - re: a - A good point, well made.
Submitted by a on
I promise I will