2015 Melbourne Cup
1. SNOW SKY (Trainer: M Stoute - Jockey: R Moore)
2. CRITERION (Trainers: D Hayes and T Dabernig - Jockey: M Walker)
3. FAME GAME (Trainer: Y Munakata - Jockey: Z Purton)
4. OUR IVANHOE (Trainers: L and A Freedman - Jockey: B Melham)
5. BIG ORANGE (Trainer: M Bell - Jockey: J Spencer)
6. HARTNELL (Trainers: J O'Shea - Jockey: J MacDonald)
7. HOKKO BRAVE (Trainer: Y Matsunaga - Jockey: C Williams)
8. MAX DYNAMITE (Trainer: W Mullins - Jockey: F Dettori)
9. RED CADEAUX (Trainer: E Dunlop - Jockey: G Mosse)
10. TRIP TO PARIS (Trainer: E Dunlop - Jockey: T Berry)
11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: B Shinn)
12. SKY HUNTER (Trainer: S Bin Suroor - Jockey: W Buick)
13. THE OFFER (Trainer: G Waterhouse - Jockey: D Oliver)
14. GRAND MARSHALL (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: J Cassidy)
15. PREFERMENT (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: H Bowman)
16. QUEST FOR MORE (Trainer: R Charlton - Jockey: D Lane)
17. ALMOONQITH (Trainers: D Hayes and T Dabernig - Jockey: D Dunn)
18. KINGFISHER (Trainer: A O'Brien - Jockey: C O'Donoghue)
19. PRINCE OF PENZANCE (Trainer: D Weir - Jockey: M Payne)
20. BONDI BEACH (Trainer: A O'Brien - Jockey: B Prebble)
21. SERTORIUS (Trainer: J Edwards - Jockey: C Newitt)
22. THE UNITED STATES (Trainer: R Hickmott - Jockey: J Moreira)
23. EXCESS KNOWLEDGE (Trainer: G Waterhouse - Jockey: K McEvoy)
24. GUST OF WIND (Trainer: J Sargent - Jockey: C Schofield)
Preview and selections
In 2007 Efficient was the last VRC Derby winner to return the following year and win the Melbourne Cup. Prior to that the last horse to achieve that double was way back in 1930...and that was Phar Lap. It doesn't happen often, but we might be about to see it again. Preferment ran 13 lengths 9th in the Cox Plate but I'm prepared to ignore the run based on the performance of the track on that day. Prior to that he impressed in the Turnbull Stakes against quality opposition, keeping his unbeaten record at Flemington intact. And before that he beat Magic Hurricane over 2000m, who then stepped out and won the Metropolitan comfortably. Preferment has been taking on some talented competition over shorter distances, and he's beating them. Not bad for a horse whose 2015 campaign has been targeted toward this race tomorrow. In the 2014 Derby he was strong on the line after travelling wide throughout most of the race. He looks like he'll run the distance and the progeny of Zabeel usually improve with age. Hugh Bowman gets back on board and it's a winning combination. Zabeel was 29 when he died just a few weeks ago. HIs contribution to horseracing stocks in Australia and New Zealand is almost unparalleled. Preferment is his one and only progeny in the race this year - a fitting tribute it would be.
Fame Game is a must include after the Caulfield Cup trial that is impossible to ignore. He'll be flashing late and given his style of racing and the big fields he has contested in Japan he should have no trouble working his way through the field in the final 400 metres. Has to go close.
Who Shot TheBarman ran an impressive third last year and I think he's going better this year. He's drawn a good gate and should get a cosy run throughout proceedings, and Gust of Wind was solid enough in the Caulfield Cup. Her entire campaign has been about this race and she'll be stronger at the end than most. Enjoy the race.
1st - Preferment
2nd - Fame Game
3rd - Who Shot TheBarman
4th - Gust of Wind
Thinker bets - Cup Day
- The Cup - Preferment: $30 each way
- The Cup - Grand Marshall (my best roughie): $20 each way
* William Hill are offering a range of betting promotions for the Melbourne Cup. Here's a link to all the offers and details for those that are interested:
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Spring Carnival results - The Thinker
Cumulative return - $200 loss.
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think the question of the nation this year, following the Admire Rakti front running farce turned tragedy is for jockey, Zac Purton to answer.
Q? Japanese superstar Fame Game, noted back-marker, will Purton take him to the front ? Until 3pm Tuesday, we will all have to guess, but if the answer turns out to be a 'yes', a nation of punter's would like to put you in stocks at the exit to the racecourse, and throw a tomato or two on their way out.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I've decided I'm going to put together a fun little Melbourne Cup formula -a horse by horse Cup Predictor Score based on logic and nothing else. Still cranking it through the old mainframe, so will have something for you soon.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'll step out of the limelight and let some others make some comments first. I'll let the other 6 tipsters tip before I show my predictor. Don't want to influence anyone. Or do you want to be influenced?
I've punched 24 Melbourne Cup formula scores in and its truly shocking. Well, not really, just not what I had picked. Then again, my Melbourne Cup record is so bad, this formula could be right?!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry.
Next post is me again.
If it's only me talking to myself, so be it.
This theory I worked feels scarily good and feel like sharong so here it is. Just don't put your house on anything. It's only a bit of fun.
I worked a score for each horse based on these factors
a/ age : score is 10 minus age of horse
b/ barrier : score is dependant on which quarter of the track horse jumps from - gate 1 to 6= 8, gate 7 to 12=6 gate 13 to 18=4, gate 19 to 24=2
c/ weight : score = 60 minus horse's weight
d/ form over 3000m+, or 2400/2500m
score:
-previously won over 3000m+ = 10
-previously placed over 3000m+ = 8
-previously won over 2400/2500m = 6
-previously placed over 2400/2500m =4
-unplaced over 2400/2500m =2
e/ form in current spell
score:
-won over 2400/2500m this spell= 10
-placed over 2400/2500m this spell=8
-won at lesser distance this spell=6
-placed at lesser distance this spell=4
a + b + c + d + e = Cup Predictor Score
Here is how the field reads in Predictor Score Order
1. Max Dynamite - 37
2. The United States - 35.5
3. Sky Hunter - 34
3. Kingfisher - 34
5. Bondi Beach - 33.5
6. The Offer - 33
6. Almoonqith - 33
6. Prince of Penzance - 33
9. Trip to Paris - 32
10. Excess Knowledge - 31
11. Preferment - 30.5
12. Who Shot The Barman - 28.5
13. Criterion - 27.5
14. Red Cadeaux - 27
15. Grand Marshal - 26.5
16. Hartnell - 25.5
16. Sertorious - 25.5
18. Gust of Wind - 25
19. Quest for More - 24.5
20. Our Ivanhowe - 24
21. Fame Game - 23
21. Big Orange - 23
23. Snow Sky - 19
24. Hokko Brave - 16.5
Surely this is all wrong because Fame Game can't finish that far back right? Zac Purton would have to lead again for this to happen. I ran the formula again as if he won the Caulfield Cup two weeks ago, and his score only improved to 31 - 10th best. Can't be right.
Anyway, then I started looking back at previous winners, and what their Cup Predictor Score would have been
2014 Protectionist - 32
2013 Green Moon - 26.5
2012 Dunaden - 33.5
2011 Americain - 35.5
Consistently well into the 30s.. and then I plucked one out of the air - course record holder, Kingston Rule 1990 - 36.
Max Dynamite's score is better than all of these. The United States pretty close behind. Fame Game, another Japanese disaster.
Sure I could be leading everyone astray including myself, but hey, how many of you will be counting winning streaks of your rugby league team next year?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. Theories out the window
2009 Shocking - 33
2008 Viewed - 28
2007 Efficient - 23.5
Oh well. What's interesting though is the ones that won it in the 20s were all big odds. Also interesting that Bauer, beaten a nose in 2008, scored - 34.
Maybe I am onto something?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
2007 Delta Blues - 32 although just beats Pop Rock - 25.
Maybe it's back to drawing board?
Submitted by Coach Potato on
2006 that is
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Seems like its a great theory if hindsight told it was a race won by a horse in form.
Seems like a load of rubbish if hindsight told it was a race won by a horse not in form.
Submitted by chooks on
thinker, thanks for the heads up last week on Tarzino
great price
Submitted by Coach Potato on
"Earth to Thinker Central, is anyone interested in the Melbourne Cup this year? "
Submitted by a on
Here are my predictions
1st Fame Game
2nd Preferment
3rd Trip To Paris
Roughie Criterion
Submitted by The Thinker on
For those desperately waiting on my preview, and I've been in tremendous form so I can understand why (eyes rolling), I'll be publishing my tips and what-not this evening.
One more sleep.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'm going to throw my previous selection of Grand Marshal onto the back burner (maybe side burner) and at the same time throw some caution to the wind - a 20km/h southerly if anyone's interested which way it'll be blowing at Flemington tomorrow.
I'm going with my one day old theory. Actually just couldn't bear for the numbers to come in and not have anything on. I'm going for -
1. No. 8 MAX DYNAMITE - Frankie Dettori
Crap. Why not. I'll just take the top 4 as previously listed.
2. No. 23 THE UNITED STATES
3. No. 12 SKY HUNTER
4. No. 19 KINGFISHER
Good Luck all.
Gamble Shmamble blah blah blah.
I say it's only once a year. It's an Australian icon. Go for it.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Even 'a' can only bring himself to tip one race not ten. Something's amiss. Has The Thinker's punting panel been got at?
Submitted by a on
I just tiped the most important race
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Here we go. We’re off and racing! What a tough assignment we all have in trying to tip this year’s Cup. I reckon there’s about 10 of them that could win this and I wouldn’t be surprised.
There’s a couple I like more than most. I’m liking Who Shot Thebarman, Quest For More, Our Ivanhowe and Prince Of Penzance. But I can only tip one of ‘em so I’m gonna tip …
10. TRIP TO PARIS
He’s weighted just right.
He’s about the right price (around the $8 mark over here in the West).
Really nice run in the Caulfield Cup.
Barrier doesn’t do him any harm (not that barriers make that much difference in the Cup).
Distance not a problem as he’s previously won over 3219m, 3756m and 4023m.
Fairytale ending if Tommy can boot it home for his brother.
He’s all class this one (the horse that is. Tommy's no slouch either).
Anyway, that’s my 2 bob’s worth. I’m gonna head off now and log into my WA TAB account and outlay a Bradman on the Great Race. Newbie’s “preferred” mode of attack is to bet 5 horses straight out @ 10 each, 10 x $3 Mystery Combos and 20 x Mystery Trifectas.
Wish me luck and if you’re having a bet, remember to spend wisely. Best of luck everyone!
Disclaimer : Under no circumstances should the reader invest any money whatsoever based on the deluded ramblings of this writer.
P.S. BIG “thank you” to the Boss for keeping the site going a wee bit longer. I’m sure it’s appreciated by all. So too is the Coach's efforts with the stats and so on. Cheers to both of ya!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Happy Cup Day everyone. A celebration of Aussie culture and spirit. Tales of occasional rags to riches, though many more of riches to rags. Hope you find that winner, or else do the traditional thing and back the annual loser. Thanks everyone for being in the tipping comp. Should be super exciting for another 3 and a bit minutes.
Submitted by Footy chick on
Hello Boys
Who could resist a Trip to Paris.
xo
Submitted by chooks on
track will hopefully play ok....
fame game..trip to paris..preferment...almoonqith....and the winner is....
Fame Game is my tip for the cup...hopefully you guys
get to see today what this brute is really capable of.....
he is an outstanding stayer.....
ta coach and thinker...good luck everyone
Submitted by chooks on
track looking much better.
Submitted by scott m on
Criterion for me.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
The theory is only 2 days, but I'm sure to bring it out again next year.
NRL theory ka-ching. Melbourne Cup theory ka-ching ka-ching.
Canny Coach boxed his top 8 selections minus The United States that wasn't paying enough - so boxed the other 7 in an exacta. Paris here I come.
1. Max Dynamite - 37 ***
2. The United States - 35.5
3. Sky Hunter - 34 ***
3. Kingfisher - 34 ***
5. Bondi Beach - 33.5 ***
6. The Offer - 33 ***
6. Almoonqith - 33 ***
6. Prince of Penzance - 33 ***
Will update the Spring Carnival World Series later. Going out for din-din.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
THE THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES
Chooks..........................54
a.......................................47
Footy Chick.................38 + 21 = 59
Newbie from Perth..37 + 21 = 59
Thinker.........................36
Scott M.........................36 + 24 = 60
Coach Potato.............20 + 27 = 47
Less adding up than I thought.
It's a photo finish. Down to the wire it's
SCOTT M.
A tit away, Footy Chick and Newbie (obscured by the other tit)
THINKER'S PRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES CHAMPION 2015
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.... Sorry you got 58 Newbie. 2nd Chick. 3rd Newbie. Binoculars got a bit fogged up.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks for all your efforts Coach, and congrats to Scott M in one of the tightest finishes you're ever likely to see.
And wasn't I close in the Cup this year. Sheesh!
Here's hoping Gust of Wind comes back for another tilt in 2016. That was quite an effort.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Coach, you bloody bewdy! Onya mate. Absolutely love seeing people win BIG on the Cup. No seriously, I do.
I assume your exacta paid $1,770.30? If so, you might be treating yourself to two(2) Big Macs AND a large fries tonight. Maybe even an apple pie for desert?
Awesome stuff my friend. Might use your “system” next year if that’s OK.
Happy to finish on the dais for the THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES 2015. Now I’ll be famous for 15 minutes across the entire world!
Congratulations to Scotty and the Footy Chick for a job well done. You too Coach!
As I mentioned in my previous post, I bet 5 horses for 10 wins each plus the mystery bets. Over here on the WA TAB the Prince paid $65.90 so Newbie ended up with a cool $659.00. Not too shabby, not too shabby indeed.
Anyway enough gloating on today’s race. I’m still behind over the long haul. Days like this just keep me “hooked” so to speak. Thanks again Thinker and thanks Coach also. Thanks as well for the “system”. Fingers crossed for next year.
Universe-willing, see you all again next year for the footy. Cheers.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I like your style Michelle Payne. No steps backwards from the time you were born. Losing your mother when you were just 6 months old. I can't imagine how you ever got this far, but you did, and I like your style.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/11/03/rough-riding-career-michel...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Gotta love this girl
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-03/melbourne-cup-michelle-payne-pr...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
...that speech
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dVIk7CQntoA
Submitted by Coach Potato on
..but this one takes the cake. Telling everyone to get stuffed. Can't beat it. Enjoy the rest of 2015 everyone.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/11971413/First-female-jocke...
Submitted by a on
Are we tipping for nines
Submitted by chooks on
well done Scott M
Submitted by a on
Yes well done Scott M
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Well done Scott M. ..... Speech !!!!!
C'mon tell us all to go and get stuffed. That would be classic.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I have to repeat, I still can't comprehend that this girl lost her mother at just age 6 months. Winning a Melbourne Cup makes up for none of those lost years. Does bring a tear to the eye though, knowing that mum was looking after her tiny little baby.