Each week I'll be posting a quick preview and a few tips for the big races throughout the Spring Racing Carnival. I'll also include a betting strategy, and I'll keep a record of how I'm going throughout. Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments section below, and if horse racing is not your cup of tea, feel free to ignore me until the footy season warms up again.
Saturday 10th October - Caulfield Guineas Day
Caulfield Race 6. Caulfield Stakes
I'm fairly convinced the Sydney form is better than the Melbourne form, and the best Sydney form belongs to trainer Chris Waller. Kermadec could be a horse on an upward spiral and will stamp himself as the real deal with a dominant winning performance in this. Pornichet improves on a dry track. Criterion has been racing the best in the world and must be respected and Fawkner won't be far away.
1st - Kermadec : 2nd - Pornichet : 3rd - Criterion : 4th - Fawkner
Caulfield Race 7. Toorak Handicap
Happy to back Noble Protector at $10 in this. Her last start looks disappointing on paper but she steps up to a suitable distance, carries 4 kilos less and will get conditions to suit. Lucky Hussler was unlucky last start, should have almost won, and meets those runners better at the weights. At big odds Hopfgarten is good enough to win this. Abidewithme wouldn't surprise either in a race with plenty of chances.
1st - Noble Protector : 2nd - Lucky Hussler : 3rd - Hopfgarten : 4th - Abidewithme
Caulfield Race 9. Caulfield Guineas
The Caulfield track has been the undoing of many a talented Sydney racehorse. That, combined with the wide barrier, is the only doubt with Press Statement. Easily the best horse in the race. Dal Cielo was courageous last start and gives a sight. Bon Aurum is the consistent local trained by the rising star in Australia's training ranks and Tulsa will be storming home again.
1st - Press Statement : 2nd - Dal Cielo : 3rd - Bon Aurum : 4th - Tulsa
Thinker bets
I'll be having an imaginary $100 to play with each Saturday and will keep a running tally which could prove to be deeply embarrassing:
Caulfield Race 6. No. 7 Kermadec - $25 win
Caulfield Race 7. No. 13 Noble Protector - $15 each way
Caulfield Race 9. No. 1 Press Statement - $25 win
Randwick Race 6. Quinella - 1. Vanbrugh and 4. Too Good to Refuse - $20
Good night and good luck!
Comments
Submitted by a on
If we were do to a tipping co phew many people will we need
Submitted by a on
Sorry for bad spelling
Submitted by chooks on
Thinker you took the words right out of my mouth-
all bets for Caulfield.
Kermadec could be the star of the spring but a fast leader biased Caulfield will suit Pornichet, in saying that-
Kermadec---$30 win (race 6-n7)
Lucky Hussler set for this, Weir polish--$10 each way (race 7-N1)
Press Statement-best horse by panels and if had drawn a barrier
would have been a special. Caulfield first time and bad barrier will make it tricky but Hugh the man (elbows and all)---$30 win. (race 9-N1)
Finally Harlem River, owned by Coolmore and im sure Gai would love the win first up. Great barrier trials and blinkers on, ready to go.--$20 win. (Race 3-N1).
good punting all and thanks Thinker.
Chooks.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker, Thinker, Thinker.
Late change of plans and now on the eve of Guineas Day.
Might have to start the tipping challenge before next Week's Caulfield Cup.
Submitted by a on
Yes we will
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'll start off with how it might go.
The Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series 2015
# Register simply by putting your tip in next week for the Caulfield Cup.
# Final fields for each event will be posted as early as possible
# Continue to nominate tips the week after for Cox Plate and Mooney Valley Cup, and the week after that MacKinnon Stakes, Lexus Quality, and VRC Derby, and finally the Melbourne Cup.
Because the focus is the Melbourne Cup, only traditional, Saturday lead-ups races are included. Note, although VRC Derby winners rarely run in the Cup, they have done so, most recently Arena in 1998, running 15th
# Points are awarded as follows
1st - 10
2nd - 9
3rd - 8
And so on down to 10th - 1
# The twist for the Melbourne Cup is, like the NRL Grand Final, triple points -
1st - 30
2nd - 27
3rd - 24
And so on down to 10th - 3
# accumulated scores for each punter will occur after each Saturday. Who-tipped-what boards will no be kept.
# only changing tips will be accepted if your first tip is scratched. If your horse is scratched at the barrier, get onto Thinker.org fast!!
At this stage, I dont even need to get numbers . I will see how many there are, by the time Caulfield Cup runners are in the gates.
I'll post the Caulfield Cup Final field on Wednesday and go from there.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
OK, Newbie might have a crack at trying to pick some winners here. Maybe I’ll have more success with the nags than I had with tipping on the footy. Then again, if I was any good at picking horses I reckon I’d be living on a tropical island somewhere instead of slaving away each day at work eh?
Caulfield Race 6. Caulfield Stakes
4 - Contributor
2 - Fawkner
8 - Mongolian Khan
7 - Kermadec
Newbie’s Bet : R6 No. 4 Contributor - $25 win
Caulfield Race 7. Toorak Hcp
13 - Noble Protector
8 - Kenjorwood
2 - Stratum Star
4 - Strawberry Boy
Newbie’s Bet : R7 No. 13 Noble Protector - $25 win
Caulfield Race 9. Caulfield Guineas
1 - Press Statement
13 - Tarzino
11 - Lizard Island
6 - Bon Aurum
Newbie’s Bet : R9 No. 1 Press Statement - $25 win
Exotic Bet : Contributor x Noble Protector x Press Statement - $25 All Up Place
Disclaimer : Under no circumstances should the reader invest any money whatsoever on the selections listed above. They are merely the thoughts of a demented wannabe who assumes he knows more than he does.
If you’re having a bet, spend wisely and best of luck. Cheers.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'm happy to give form guides the flick and go into bat for the omen punters out there.
Firstly, I've had the great privilege of being a CoNtRiBuToR to this page. I certainly don't think I know everything, but I have my views and I express them. I'm not for everyone and don't expect that you all AbIdEwItHmE. I TaKePrIdE in my team, and State and follow them passionately win or lose. Mostly lose. But there's always light at the end of the tunnel, so I keep reminding myself I need to be ready. ReAdY for ViCtOrY.
And that's my omen tips for the week:)
Submitted by a on
Yes please give out form guides
Submitted by a on
Here are my predictions
Race 6
1 Fawnker
2 Criterion
3 Entirey Platinum
4 Mongolian Khan
Race 7
1 Disposition
2 Lucky Hussler
3 Abidewithme
4 Hopfgarten
Race 9
1 Bon Aurum
2 Shards
3 Lizard Island
4 Tusla
Coach will you enter it in
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series 2015 starts this coming week.
Hopefully there's a page open by Wednesday like the footy, then all you need to do is register your pen-name and your tip for the Caulfield Cup. No need to have yourself on by trying to tip the first 4 in one go. Just pick the winner. The closer you get to winning the more points you get. In 3 and a half weeks time, when the Melbourne Cup has been run and won, you could be crowned the inaugural Thinker Spring Carnival World Series Champion Tipster 2015.
Have a go, whoever you are, whatever town, state, or country you are from. What have you got to lose?
Submitted by a on
I'm in Coach
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Newbie's in as well! We'll need someone at the bottom to keep the tipping ladder steady eh?
Not a great weekend tipping the nags last week but being the optimist I am, I'll have another crack.
Now all I need to do is some "serious" form study...
Submitted by a on
Me too
Submitted by Coach Potato on
C'mon Thinker. Don't drop the ball ala BEN HUNT !! ;p
Are you able to give us a blank Caulfield Cup comments page? No need to rush your tips and commentary especially with forecast of a wet track. Add them in later.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I'll copy and paste this onto this weeks page, but for anyone interested .....
Caulfield Cup final field, barriers and current odds
1 7x080 Protectionist, ...................Brenton Avdulla, 58kgs $41 (12)
2 x116x Snow Sky, ...............................Damien Oliver, 58 $17 (3)
3 01x2x Fame Game, ..................................Zac Purton, 57 $8 (1)
4 x7x92 Our Ivanhowe, ..........................Ben Melham, 56 $15 (17)
5 5x36x Hokko Brave, .........................Craig Williams, 55.5 $10 (19)
6 51x74 Mongolian Khan,...................... Opie Bosson, 55 $4.80 (9)
7 12135 Trip To Paris, ............................Tommy Berry, 55 $31 (5)
8 2x758 Who Shot Thebarman, .............Blake Shinn, 54.5 $19 (21)
9 1x075 Grand Marshal, ...........................Jim Cassidy, 53.5 $51 (6)
10 x1322 Royal Descent, ............................Glen Boss, 53.5 $16 (22)
11 x7059 Volkstok'n'barrell,................ Craig Newitt, 53.5 $31 (11)
12 2x072 Hauraki, ............................James McDonald, 53.5 $8.50 (14)
13 6x648 Lucia Valentina, ...................Dwayne Dunn, 53.5 $26 (20)
14 2x620 Rising Romance,..................... Damian Lane, 53.5 $13 (2)
15 x0000 Magicool, ...................................James Winks, 52 $126 (15)
16 1x980 Gust Of Wind, ......................Chad Schofield, 51 $17 (13)
17 0x253 Set Square, ............................Kerrin McEvoy, 51 $9 (16)
18 x1112 Magnapal, ..................................Dean Yendall, 50 $51 (18)
Emergencies
19 2112x Quest For More,.................... Tommy Berry, 53.5 $41 (8)
20 x0131 Complacent, ..........................................................53 $18 (10)
21 0x339 Dibayani, .................................................................53 $71 (7)
22 43121 Magic Hurricane,................................................ 52.5 $41 (4)
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
Tomorrow I promise.
All the best
Submitted by a on
I excited about the compertition
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yes Thinker I excited two
Submitted by a on
Hopefully I do okay
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Can you believe Protectionist, the advocater for safe horse-sex around the world, will be wearing Winkers for the big race on Saturday ???!!!!?? Could it be a genius training ploy to distract the fillies, as well as any same-sex stallions there might be on the day?
I see Winkers are actually sheepskin-eye-snuggy-things. Not that attractive in my opinion. Only distraction I see is other horses falling over laughing.
Here is something I found for the equally uneducated ....
https://www.racenet.com.au/images/winkers.jpg
What are winkers?
Winkers are thick pads of sheepskin attached to each side of the bridle to restrict a horse's rearwards vision and put the focus on forward vision while also allowing the horse to see sideways. They can be considered a more gentle version of blinkers .
Why are winkers used?
Winkers are usually used in a race to focus a horse’s attention on the job at hand.
The most common reason for winkers being fitted is that the stable believes the horse is not racing to its full potential but does not require blinkers or blinkers have been used unsuccessfully.
There are various reasons why that may be the case including a horse being easily distracted, not committed to coming out on top in competition, or just general inexperience or immaturity.
From a betting point of view the following factors should be considered:
Winkers are hard to assess as they could be considered anything from a positive to a neutral to a negative gear change.
They are usually used by trainers in the hope of the horse improving on recent runs however they are often used a secondary option after blinkers have been tried and failed. You will note that the addition of winkers in the gear changes is often accompanied by Blinkers Off.
They do not tend to make the horse over-race as can be the case with blinkers so if a horse has been tried in blinkers and they are replaced with winkers for that reason it could well be seen as a positive.
Submitted by a on
I think they are 9 racers in this cup