2015 Caulfield Cup
1. Protectionist...................Brenton Avdulla, 58kgs $41 (12)
2. Snow Sky...............................Damien Oliver, 58 $17 (3)
3. Fame Game..................................Zac Purton, 57 $8 (1)
4. Our Ivanhowe..........................Ben Melham, 56 $15 (17)
5. Hokko Brave.........................Craig Williams, 55.5 $10 (19)
6. Mongolian Khan..................... Opie Bosson, 55 $4.80 (9)
7. Trip To Paris............................Tommy Berry, 55 $31 (5)
8. Who Shot Thebarman.............Blake Shinn, 54.5 $19 (21)
9. Grand Marshal...........................Jim Cassidy, 53.5 $51 (6)
10. Royal Descent............................Glen Boss, 53.5 $16 (22)
11. Volkstok'n'barrell................ Craig Newitt, 53.5 $31 (11)
12. Hauraki............................James McDonald, 53.5 $8.50 (14)
13. Lucia Valentina...................Dwayne Dunn, 53.5 $26 (20)
14. Rising Romance..................... Damian Lane, 53.5 $13 (2)
15. Magicool...................................James Winks, 52 $126 (15)
16. Gust Of Wind......................Chad Schofield, 51 $17 (13)
17. Set Square............................Kerrin McEvoy, 51 $9 (16)
18. Magnapal..................................Dean Yendall, 50 $51 (18)
Emergencies
19. Quest For More.................... Tommy Berry, 53.5 $41 (8)
20. Complacent..........................................................53 $18 (10)
21. Dibayani.................................................................53 $71 (7)
22. Magic Hurricane................................................ 52.5 $41 (4)
Note: odds displayed were current at time of publication and subject to considerable change
Preview and selections
I expect the Caulfield Cup will be taken out by an international raider in 2015, but the raid will come from a country that's been raiding our races for decades.
The connections of Gust of Wind have made it clear they are on a Cups campaign, and I think we start to see the real horse on Saturday. In her three runs this campaign she's been running in the best of company in this country, and she's looked better with every run. I have a fondness for lightly weighted 4 year old mares in this race, and last year Rising Romance ran a tremendous second. I think Gust of Wind is at least as good as Rising Romance was last year. As evidence I've posted the video of her win in the 2015 AJC Oaks. She was never going to lose, and the horse trying to run her down is near enough to favourite to win the Cox Plate. That's good enough for this. With just 51 kilograms to carry and one of the best New Zealand trainers in the business in charge, I think she's a fantastic each way betting proposition. She paid about $18 when she won the Oaks last year, and she'll be paying much the same on Saturday. That'll do me.
As mentioned earlier, Rising Romance nearly won this race last year. She's going just as well this campaign, and with the perfect barrier draw she can put herself in the race again. Note that the training combination of Hayes and Dabernig are winning just about everything in Melbourne at the minute.
Fame Game will be better suited in the Melbourne Cup, but we all said that about Admire Rakti last year. The Japanese horses relish the firm conditions in Australia and there is no question that the Japanese have the best staying horses in the world. Impossible to ignore.
Set Square is another lightly weighted 4 year old mare who happened to win the VRC Oaks at Flemington last year. She's shown a liking for the track and should be storming home late.
1st - Gust of Wind
2nd - Rising Romance
3rd - Fame Game
4th - Set Square
Thinker bets - week two
Caulfield Race 4. No. 2 Ambience $40 win fixed at $2.50
Caulfield Race 7. No. 8 Under the Louvre $50 win
Caulfield Race 8. No. 6 Sabatini $10 win
Note: William Hill have a number of betting promotions for the Caulfield meeting. I'll post details later for those that may be interested.
Spring Carnival results - The Thinker
Cumulative return - $25 loss.
Comments
Submitted by chooks on
Mongolian Khan..................... Opie Bosson
Not always a great idea backing Fav in the C/C.
however this horse has the best WFA form with
great barrier. trainer is a genius and Opie wont stuff up.
he is each way all day
good luck all
chooks
Submitted by a on
My Caufield Cup predictions
1st Mongolian Khan
2nd Hauraki
3rd Set Square
Roughie Fame Game
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So only old Red Cadeux missing and the first three from last year's Melbourne Cup would be running around. That tells me it's a pretty high class race this year.
Protectionist, lastt year's Melbourne Cup winner hasn't been setting the world on fire ever since moving to live with an Aussie trainer. Whether its the cold beer he hasn't enjoyed, or still cranky that KFC don't serve baked beans. Not sure, but it's something. Last couple of runs I think he's been run a bit upside down, running up on the pace and then fading. Remember he came from 16th on the turn in the Cup, at the 400m was up to 5th, and by the finish was streaking away into the carpark. Top weight and wide-ish barrier here will ensure a much cooler run, and at 40/1, could be Christmas early if you dare.
The third horse last year, WhoShotThebarman kicked on and went mighty close to winning the Sydney Cup this Autumn. A race that Protectionist also ran in, although almost got caught by the ambulance. The winner, Grand Marshal, I must say, is the one that caught my eye. Watch the closing stages. Remember the call "...and Kingston Town can't win"? - only to motor home and win the Cox Plate. Watch here - you hear the caller put down the glasses on WhoShotThebarman, and no sooner does Grand Marshal jump out of the ground (at the end of 3200m I might addoes
Postage Stamp weight with 53.5kg especially after an effort like that, and WhoShotThebarman treated pretty good with 54.5kg. I'll go Grand Marshal, but I wouldn't discount a Chris Waller quinella.
1.Grand Marshal
2.WhoShotThebarman
3.Protectionist
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hoOI6DKzYSw
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Come one, come all. Join the page and enter.
We're looking for 50 starters. Aim for the stars, I say. We'll see if we get to step-ladder height.
So without further ado it's time to introduce ...
The Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series 2015
(based loosely on the U.S's use of the term 'World Series')
Playing is easy.
Register your weird and wacky name.
Then select a horse to win the following
1. Caulfield Cup - Saturday 17/10
--------------------------------------
2. Mooney Valley Cup - Saturday 24/10
3. Cox Plate - Saturday 24/10
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4. Lexus Stakes - Saturday 31/10
5. LKS MacKinnon Stakes - Saturday 31/10
6. VRC Derby - Saturday 31/10
--------------------------------------
7. Melbourne Cup - Tuesday 3/11
If your horse is scratched you can tip again, (so if your horse is scratched at the barriers, better type fast)
but otherwise, just one tip and that's it. No switching.
#Receive 10 points for a win, down to 1 point for running 10th. Nothing for finishing any further back.
#Melbourne Cup is mega triple treat - 30 points for the winner, down to 3 points for 10th.
The winner all up will be crowned .....
Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series Champion 2015
(..and I'm sure you'll get some kind of nice prize)
Join us and celebrate Spring Carnival. What have you got to lose?
Submitted by a on
I enter my horses in
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Oh well. Thinker, Chooks, a, Newbie, yours truly. Picnic race of 5? No matter. Still a race.
THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES CHAMPION !!
That'll be me of course. Unless anyone else out there thinks they know better ? I doubt it though.
Submitted by a on
Yes still a race
Submitted by chooks on
I feel bad now for you guys looking at your tips.
did you guys do any video watching and form work at all?
ps.
just kidding but really A and I will romp this in...lol
Submitted by a on
Is their any prizes for winning
Submitted by Coach Potato on
LONGEST PRICED WINNERS IN THE CAULFIELD CUP:
1884 Blink Bonny - 50-1
1902 Lieutenant Bill - 40-1
1936 Northwind - 66-1
1943 Saint Warden - 100-1
1988 Imposera - 50-1
1998 Taufan's Melody - 66-1
Nothings impossible, and like old Bart would say ( something to the effect ) "if you're not in it you're no chance, and if you are, you've got one"
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hi Thinker,thanks in advanve if it would be ok if you or Helper could mail everyone registered on this page and let them know about this one + carrot of whatever you are willing to adorn the winner with? Obviously noone needs to play that doesnt want to, just that everyone that did want to doesn't miss out.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Sorry if it looks a bit all over the place but for the last 65 years here is a bit a stat for you all
Year....Winner...Weight...Jockey....2nd....3rd....Time
1949 Lincoln 6.10 N. Eastwood St. Razzle Comic Court 2-36.25
1950 Grey Boots 7.13 N. Sellwood Chicquita Saxony 2-31
1951 Basha Felika 7.13 N. Sellwood Blue Vest Davey Jones 2-30
1952 Peshawar 8.2 A. Breasley King Amana Durham 2-30.25
1953 My Hero 8.7 N. Eastwood Wodalla Most Regal 2-28.75
1954 Rising Fast 8.10 A. Ward Electro Advocate 2-30
1955 Rising Fast 9.10 W. Williamson Ray Ribbon Historic Era 2-29.25
1956 Redcraze 9.13 A. Ward Evening Peal Prince Delville 2-33.75
1957 Tulloch 7.8 N. Sellwood Mac’s Amber Sailor’s Guide 2-26.9
1958 Sir Blink 7.5 A. Yeomans Pandie Sun Humber Hawk 2-28.8
1959 Regal Wench 7.0 T. Dyer Sir Blink Trellios 2-28.7
1960 Ilumquh 8.0 W. Williamson Dhaulagiri Mac 2-27.9
1961 Summer Fair 7.7 W.A. Smith Lord Fury Dhaulagiri 2-28.0
1962 Even Stevens 7.6 L. Coles Mumburdi Cheong Sam 2-34.1
1963 Sometime 8.11 W. Pyers Gatum Gatum Grand Print 2-28.1
1964 Yangtze 7.4 J. Stocker Royal Sovereign Elkayel 2-36.2
1965 Bore Head 8.9 F. Clarke Ziema Craftsman 2-28.3
1966 Galilee 7.8 J. Miller Gala Crest Pharaon 2-27.8
1967 Tobin Bronze 9.10 J. Johnson Red Handed Garcon 2-31.1
1968 Bunratty Castle 7.13 R. Mallyon Future Arctic Coast 2-29.7
1969 Big Philou 8.2 R. Higgins Nausori Tobermory 2-28.3
1970 Beer Street 7.11 B. Gilders Voleur Baghdad Note/Royal Show 2-31.2
1971 Gay Icarus 9.2 R. Mallyon Igloo Big Philou 2-28.0
1972 Sobar 48 H. White Stormy Seas Gunsynd 2-27.1
1973 Swell Time 51.5 B. Andrews Gala Supreme Young Ida 2-35.9
1974 Leilani 52 R. Mallyon Broadway Hit Turfcutter 2-38.3
1975 Analight(NZ) 50.5 P. Trotter Leica Lover Suleiman 2-30.0
1976 How Now 52 J.Stocker Battle Heights Van Der Hum 2-36.7
1977 Ming Dynasty 54 H.White Unaware Salamander 2-28.5
1978 Taksan(NZ) 52 J. Duggan Arwon Father’s Day 2-27.5
1979 Mighty Kingdom 47 M. Johnston Warri Symbol Sonstone 2-29.9
1980 Ming Dynasty 58 E. Didham Hyperno Kingston Town 2-28.7
1981 Silver Bounty(NZ) 53 E. Didham No Fear Deck The Halls 2-27.1
1982 Gurner's Lane(NZ) 53.5 B. Thomson Gala Mascot Veloso 2-32.5
1983 Hayai(NZ) 52.5 N. Voigt Cossack Prince La Cocorre 2-38.8
1984 Affinity(NZ) 53 P. Hyland Bounty Hawk Al Dwain 2-29.7
1985 Tristarc(NZ) 50.5 W.Treloar Our Sophia Lacka Reason 2-30.9
1986 Mr.Lomondy 53.5 D.M.Walsh At Talaq Our Sophia 2-30.1
1987 Lord Reims(NZ) 52 B. Thomson Beau Zam Cossack Warrior 2-36.0
1988 Imposera(NZ) 51 B. York Congressman Authaal 2-29.4
1989 Cole Diesel 50 M. Kerr Nayrizi The Phantom 2-27.2
1990 Sydeston 57 L. Dittman Water Boatman Shuzohra 2-31.6
1991 Let's Elope(NZ) 48.5 S. King Ivory Way Royal Creation 2-30.3
1992 Mannerism 54.5 D. Oliver Veandercross Aquidity 2-34.9
1993 Fraar(Ire) 54.5 P. Hutchison Air Seattle The Phantom 2-28.0
1994 Paris Lane 53 D. Oliver Alcove Tenor 2-26.5
1995 Doriemus(NZ) 52 D. Oliver Count Chivas Beaux Art 2-28.1
1996 Arctic Scent 49 B. Stanley Circles of Gold Iron Horse 2-30.3
1997 Might & Power (NZ) 52.5 J. Cassidy Doriemus Catalan Opening 2-26.2
1998 Taufan's Melody 53.5 R. Cochrane Lisa’s Game Tie the Knot 2-30.2
1999 Sky Heights (NZ) 56.5 D. Oliver Laebeel Inaflury 2-30.1
2000 Diatribe 52.5 J. Cassidy Kaapstad Way Fairway 2-25.3
2001 Ethereal (NZ) 50 S. Seamer Sky Heights Celestial Show 2-30.9
2002 Northerly 58 D. Oliver Fields of Omagh Republic Lass 2-30.38
2003 Mummify 53 D. Nikolic Grey Song Distinctly Secret 2-25.98
2004 Elvstroem 54 N. Rawiller Makybe Diva Grey Song 2-31.37
2005 Railings 52 G. Childs Eye Popper Mummify 2-27.96
2006 Tawqeet 53.5 D. Dunn Aqua D'Amore Delta Blues 2-27.69
2007 Master O'Reilly 50.5 V. Duric Douro Valley Princess Coup 2.26.15
2008 All The Good 54.5 K. McEvoy Nom Du Jeu Barbaricus 2.27.45
2009 Viewed 57 B. Rawiller Roman Emperor Vigor 2.29.70
2010 Descarado 52.5 C. Munce Harris Tweed Monaco Consul 2.35.69
2011 Southern Speed 52.5 C. Williams Green Moon Tullamore 2.28.44
2012 Dunaden 58 C. Williams Alcopop Lights Of Heaven 2.28.82
2013 Fawkner 55 N. Hall Dandino Dear Demi 2.29.10
2014 Admire Rakti 58 Z. Purton Rising Romance Lucia Valentina 2.32.12
Submitted by a on
I am already playing so you do not need to email me
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Caulfield Cup
Newbie has had a pretty average betting career over the years but he does have some hard’n’fast rules that he sticks to religiously:
1. In big races such as these, Newbie never bets on overseas horses that haven’t raced in Australia first. That’s to say, if an overseas horse comes down to this great country of ours, it needs to have at least 1 or 2 runs on an Australian track and under Australian conditions for me to even consider it. Basically, it needs to prove it can handle racing here.
2. In most races, except when a horse is a “proven” first up specialist, Newbie never backs a horse who’s having its first start since a spell. Running trials just doesn’t cut it for me. In my mind, they don’t replicate the feel and atmosphere (for the horse that is) of an actual race day. Plus you never know what weight they carried in the trial and whether or not it was “pushed” along.
3. The horse must have won at the distance it’s running at or at least close to it. If a horse has never won past 2000m and it’s running at 2400m say, Newbie definitely leaves it alone. More than happy to wait until it proves itself at that particular distance before I put my hard earned on it. If it’s never won or placed at the distance, I leave ‘em alone.
4. Newbie doesn’t particularly like backing horses from Sydney or Brisbane running in Melbourne or Perth say. My theory is that if a horse gets used to running clockwise for example, it gets used to a certain style and favours its weight on one particular side. To then make it run in the complete opposite direction would obviously confuse the poor animal and just doesn’t make sense to me. Granted, there may be horses out there who are “switched” over by their trainers but how do I know when or if this happens? Yes, there are “gifted” ones running around but I don’t like risking the reddies on them. Always concerned about Sydney horses racing in Melbourne and vickie-verkie. Easier if I just leave ‘em out of contention.
OK, enough of Newbie’s Handicapping 101 lesson for today. Let’s get down to who I think will win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup.
4. OUR IVANHOWE
Yeah, it’s a bit of a “roughie” most would think. I reckon he’s a bit of a chance in this.
Two starts back he raced over 2000m, carried 60kgs, settled 13 of 16, 13 at the 800, 13 at the 400 and finished 9th just 2.4L away.
Last start stepped up to 2520m, carried 60kgs again, settled 7 of 16, 8 at the 800, 7 at the 400 and finished 2nd just 1.3L away.
Only carrying 56kgs on Saturday, has won over 2200m (twice) and 2400m (three times), has a pretty handy win ratio and a fairly capable Ben Melham on his back. Only concern is the barrier. Yikes! But, at around the $21 mark, he’ll do me.
Just for interest, watch out for 6. MONGOLIAN KHAN and 17. SET SQAURE
If you’re having a bet, spend wisely and best of luck. Cheers.
P.S. Big thanks to the Boss for putting up the page and the Coach for keeping track of our tips and points allocations. You’re both “stars” shining brightly in the Universe! Cheers.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
A message for three Roosters and a Cowboy ...
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/caulfield-cup-2015-jim-cassidy-r...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So not many players for the first race, but the beauty of this mini-comp, is you could join in late and still win. Today is only 10 points out of 90.
Players could join as late as Derby Day (Day 3 below) and easily take the ..... well ...whatever the winner might get.
Today - Caulfield Cup - max. 10 points
17 Oct. - Mooney Valley Cup/Cox Plate - max. 20 points
31 0ct. - Lexus Stakes/MacKinnon Stakes/VRC Derby - max. 30 pts
3 Nov. - Melbourne Cup - max. 30 pts
All you need to do to join is register your pen-name on this page and nominate your winner of today's Caulfield Cup.
Easy and fun. What more can you ask for?
Submitted by Footy chick on
One more entry.
Fame Game. Good luck boys.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Testosterone levels, add gambling, add alcohol just went through the roof.
Thinking there'll be a rush of entries now.
Thanx Rugby League First Lady
Submitted by scott m on
Fame Game
Submitted by Coach Potato on
.. a comment from Scott M ?? !!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
...schedule a few posts back should have read 24/10 Cox Plate / Mooney Valley Cup - deh.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Well done Chooks and 'a', 10 out of 10. Let you know about the rest.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hi everyone,
Happy to get third and 8 points. Even happier with the place dividend that OUR IVANHOWE paid. Newbie outlayed a "massive" 5 x 15 and got $7.10 the place. Sweeet! Now for next week...
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Final positions - Caulfield Cup 2015
1 6 MONGOLIAN KHAN
2 7 TRIP TO PARIS
3 4 OUR IVANHOWE
4 16 GUST OF WIND
5 2 SNOW SKY
6 3 FAME GAME
7 8 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN
8 12 HAURAKI
9 13 LUCIA VALENTINA
10 5 HOKKO BRAVE
11 9 GRAND MARSHAL
12 11 VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL
13 14 RISING ROMANCE
14 18 MAGNAPAL
15 1 PROTECTIONIST
16 17 SET SQUARE
17 15 MAGICOOL
18 10 ROYAL DESCENT
Current standings
Thinker's Spring Carnival World Series
Chooks.......................10
a.....................................10
newbie from perth...8
Thinker.........................7
Footy chick.................5
Scott M.........................5
Coach Potato.............0 (but only just I might add)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Old Grand Marshal was looking like finishing 5th or 6th, skipping along the final 200m like bloody Pepe le Pew. Sure he came 11th, but if the finish was the equivalent of 800m to go in the big one, I'm happy. Looked like he could go another 3 laps.
The track bias towards the leaders was hard to ignore. (Duely noted and had some nice collects on master front running jockey, James McDonald. 'Genghis' Khan will now be a firm favourite for the Cup, but hard to say deservedly so. He only followed the track bias of the day. Doubtful Flemington will produce as many winners from on the speed. Better value if you noted any horses making ground on a day where nothing came from the back.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Here's the home straight if you want to study. Note Grand Marshal aka Pepe Le Pew passing 6 or 7 and with 50 to go gets stopped in its tracks and those 6 or 7 go past.
http://www.snappytv.com/snaps/mongolian-khan-about-raceday-coverage-on-r...
Submitted by a on
10 out of 10 is awesome
Submitted by Coach Potato on
William Samuel Cox, W.S. Cox. The founder of the Mooney Valley racetrack 132 years ago, and the great race named in his honour.
Now I see the race next week will be called the William Hill Cox Plate.
This has to be some kind of hoax, surely.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Is Mongolian Khan really as good as they say?
I'm yet to be fully convinced although I'm happy to be proved wrong.
Look back to Fawkner in 2013. Was the star of the Cup lead ups that year including an impressive Caulfield Cup win. The handicapper duely added an extra 1.5kg to his Melbourne Cup weight, taking the Cup weight up to 57kg. Fawkner started at 8/1 fourth favourite and finished 6th and 6 lengths from winner, Foirente. Not a bad effort, but no chockies. Was 57kg too much? I say yes.
Consider Saintly carried 55.5kg to win the Cup of 1996 and that was after winning the Cox Plate.
Mongolian Khan has 55kg for the Melbourne Cup and sources are suggesting the handicapper is considering adding an extra 1 to 1.5kg. So at best 56kg. At worst 56.5kg. Is this horse better than Saintly?
Answer: (question mark)
Submitted by chooks on
couple of things to consider though-
Fame Game was the Melbourne Cup flashing run,
however Trip to Paris showed a great turn of foot(had a great run though).
Mongolian Kahn will get between 1-2 kilo penalty but
keep in mind he is peaking at right time and jockey went very early.
He made a sustain run which tells me he is a really good stayer.
can he beat the Japanese horse? not sure.
Chris Wallers Grand Marshall was a very good run too.
But for this week Mongolian Khan is a champ and the jockey
rode him 10/10...giddyup....lol
cheers Coach, keep up the good work.
Chooks
Submitted by The Thinker on
Well spotted team....the run by Grand Marshall was a good one.
So too Fame Game...but everyone spotted that.
I'm actually heading down to Melbourne this weekend, so I'll get to see the Weight for Age championship of Australian horseracing in the flesh. Obviously I'm looking forward to it.
I'll have some sort of Cox Plate page/preview/tips published on Wednesday.
All the best
Submitted by a on
I wonder who lill win the next game
Submitted by chooks on
Thinker,
can I just say how jealous I am right now.
the Cox plate this year will be one of the best, very open
with the 3 very good internationals and quality local horses.
will be a fantastic day.
good luck on the punt.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks Chooks
It's become something of an annual pilgrimage for a group of us. This will be our third as a pack.
We saw Ocean Park win in 2012, and we all backed it so that was a very happy weekend.
And we saw Adelaide last year, and none of us backed it but we had fun anyway.
I agree....this year looks a quality edition.
We'll head down Friday morning so we can get to the night meeting on Cox Plate eve for the Manikato. Another finish like this would be nice to see:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuosOHK_LXY
Submitted by chooks on
That Manikato was a great finish, I was on the winner and had
to wait out the protest as well...lol.
the cox plate finish was very similar as well, all across the track.
Adelaide was a terrible ride but still won, what a horse.
No better place to watch a horse race than at the Valley
Big couple of days Thinker...you will have to time your run...lol
enjoy.
Chooks
Submitted by Coach Potato on
We interrupt this racing program with some breaking NRL news...
Panthers have just sacked Ivan Cleary. The last year of his contract terminated. New coach will be ex-Bronco Anthony Griffin. Not really sure how I feel about one of them coaching my team. All I know is, it was punishment plus to see the same losing team (barring injuries) run out week after week. Softer on a losing 17 than Roycie and Matt Elliott were combined. So come to think of it, its been a Premiership since we had a coach that wasn't.
Fresh ideas can't hurt. Just hope this bloke is old school. Ask the team for 100% effort, and if they can't give that, just point them towards the exit sign. It's not hard.
Submitted by a on
Panthers just sacked their coach Oh My God
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I got some theories on Mooney Valley. I'll re-post in a few days time in the Cox Plate comments field.
178m. Shortest metropolitan home straight in Australia. You would think that it would suit a leader with a short sprint. In fact it used to. A lot. Leaders would win race after race. Like a racecar trying to pass the one on front going around a hairpin. Almost impossible.
Then they re-cambered the home corner. Raising the outside of the track to give a velodrome effect. Horses running wide around the home turn on the old track would normally succumb to centrifugal force and lose much of their forwards momentum.
Nowdays the horse that runs a bit wide (I think), actually increases forwards momentum because camber counteracts centrifugal force. Last year's winner Adelaide was a great example. No momentum lost around the home turn, and running wide gave a little sling shot effect. Truth be told, I dont think he wouldn't beat half the field home on the old track.
Watch here coming around the home turn, the wide run doesn't hurt - actually helps. Centrifugal force turns into a sling shot. Build up the most centrifugal force ... ie. Be the fastest horse going into the corner, and you will be the fastest horse coming out of the corner.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlkrYUr1iDg
This being the case, winners at Mooney Valley are no longer leaders with a short sprint. The speed gets poured on with over 600 metres to go. Mooney Valley now suits horses that can sustain a long sprint to the line. In fact, for a track with the shortest straight, it strangely becomes one of the longest sprints home in Australia.
Horses that do well at Flemington, also do well at Mooney Valley, and vice-versa. Both completely different tracks, but both suit horses that have a long finishing burst.
My other related-theory to all this is finding the stronger horse at 200m further than the race distance. For the above reasons, I think the Valley suits the best 1400m horse in 1200m race, etc etc etc.
A race like the Cox Plate, with the speed on full tilt 600m out, turns it into a race distance almost equivalent to the Caulfield Cup. You would definitely favour a horse that runs 2400m coming back a bit in distance, over a horse that runs 1800m going up in distance.
Horses that have proven themselves at Mooney Valley are no flash in the pans. Take note of the ones with a good "track" record. You can't sneak your way around the Valley like in the old days.
Hope this all helps. And if it doesn't there's always the nice names, pretty colours and the good ol' stick-a-pin-in-it.
Submitted by a on
3 races too pick 3 winners
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Just a comment from this side of the Tasman about Cleary's sacking (coz I know nothing about horse racing). Well it's certainly caused more than a few murmurs about a return to the Warriors although this has been strenuously denied by Warriors management. Sometimes I think you're being too hard on Ivan Coach. The club was decimated by injuries this season which obviously plays a big hand in your season. A coach who can transform a muddling club like mine and take them to the GF must have some coaching credential. Enjoy the horse racing!!!
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No worries Steel. I know you're a fan and you know I'm not. Balanced discussions are good. PM Malcolm Turnbull has fans as well as detractors too.
Submitted by a on
I wonder who will be Panthers coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
These fields and barriers get finalised on Tuesday so I will post this here until the comments field opens tomorrow.
https://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
(Scroll down to the bottom after you open the link. It's a full race guide for the big race)
$3m COX PLATE
5.30pm Saturday, Moonee Valley
Group 1 (2040m)
1. CRITERION D Hayes & T Dabernig M Walker (7)
2. FAWKNER R Hickmott D Oliver (14)
3. HAPPY TRAILS P Beshara M Zahra (13)
4. HARTNELL J O’Shea (3)
5. MOURINHO P Gelagotis V Duric (12)
6. THE CLEANER M Burles N Callow (2)
7. PORNICHET G Waterhouse K McEvoy (11)
8. AROD P Chapple-Hyam C Williams (5)
9. COMPLACENT J O’Shea (6)
10. GAILO CHOP A de Watrigant B Rawiller (8)
11. KERMADEC C Waller G Boss (10) 57.5kg
12. PREFERMENT C Waller N Rawiller (9) 57.5kg
13. HIGHLAND REEL A O’Brien R Moore (4) 56kg
14. WINX C Waller H Bowman (1) 55.5kg
Submitted by The Thinker on
Thanks Coach
I'll have the Cox Plate page published tonight and I'll copy your field over.
All the best
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Ok. Got another barb.
How would you like the Cox Plate, or Melbourne Cup shared around the country. Have them run them at Eagle Farm one year, Rosehill another, Devonport, Darwin, Murray Bridge, Belmont on others, just like what people want to do with the NRL.
Can't do it? Not the same? Can't break from the traditional home and birthplace? Can't do that to Mecca?
And what the hell is Townsville doing to help this cause? Approval to build a new stadium to accommodate 30,000. Currently they fit 27,000. What a ridiculous amount of money wasted. If they'd built one that could hold 60,000 I might have changed my opinion about it all.