2015 Cox Plate
1. CRITERION (Trainers: D Hayes & T Dabernig - Jockey: M Walker)
2. FAWKNER (Trainer: R Hickmott - Jockey: D Oliver)
3. HAPPY TRAILS (Trainer: P Beshara - Jockey: M Zahra)
4. HARTNELL (Trainer: J O’Shea - Jockey: J MacDonald)
5. MOURINHO (Trainer: P Gelagotis - Jockey: V Duric)
6. THE CLEANER (Trainer: M Burles - Jockey: N Callow)
7. PORNICHET (Trainer: G Waterhouse - Jockey: K McEvoy)
8. AROD (Trainer: P Chapple-Hyam - Jockey: C Williams)
9. COMPLACENT (Trainer: J O’Shea - Jockey: J Doyle)
10. GAILO CHOP (Trainer: A de Watrigant - Jockey: B Rawiller)
11. KERMADEC (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: G Boss)
12. PREFERMENT (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: N Rawiller)
13. HIGHLAND REEL (Trainer: A O’Brien - Jockey: R Moore)
14. WINX (Trainer: C Waller - Jockey: H Bowman)
Preview and selections
Almost every year I have a pretty firm opinion on the Cox Plate. Sometimes I'm right (Ocean Park, 2012), sometimes I'm pretty close (Fawkner, 2014) and sometimes I'm nowhere near it (Why is Shamus Award in this race, 2013?). Right, almost right or completely wrong I have a view....but in 2015 I may have to get my vision tested. I'm genuinely struggling to work this edition out. Some of my favourite horses are in the contest (Fawkner, Winx, Preferment) but I don't think they're in the contest. And usually I'm a horses for courses kind of guy, and Moonee Valley is definitely a horses for courses kind of track. Yet the horses in this race that are proven at the track will all go around on Saturday at big odds - Fawkner, Happy Trails, Mourinho, The Cleaner. Any or all of them can run a race and I wouldnt be the least bit surprised, but I haven't a spot for any of them in my first three. Instead I've plonked on a horse who has had one run at this track and didn't handle it, and two that have never been to the Valley under race conditions in their lives.
I've ended up with Criterion, who clearly didn't like this track in 2014, so what do I think has changed?
The horse has new trainers in David Hayes and Tom Dabernig. When Hayes and Dabernig took over the stewardship of Criterion one of Hayes' first comments was "I thought he should have won the Cox Plate". I'm hoping he knows what's needed to be done to get this horse right for the Valley. I'm prepared to back his judgement as this stable is winning everything at the moment. The win of Criterion in the other WFA championship race in Australia over 2000m (The Queen Elizabeth Stakes) was breath-taking, and his first-up win over the same distance in the Caulfield Stakes two weeks ago was not far behind. Mongolian Khan finished behind him and then won the Caulfield Cup. Genuine weight-for-age horses (Fawkner, Kermadec) struggled behind Criterion on that day and you'd think Criterion has more scope for improvement than either of those. Despite his struggles in this race last year he was beaten less than two lengths and was coming home fast. I think he's improved a lot since then, and I think he can win.
Highland Reel reeks of Adelaide (the 2014 winner) - same stable, same jockey, same form line, same age, same sire, same number of starts). I can't leave him out and he may simply be too good for ours.
Hartnell at pretty good odds can run a cheeky race. His last start caught the eye and third up is when he shines most brightly.
The Cleaner had to work hard for the lead last year. If he's left alone in front he'll be harder to run down than he was in 2014.
If every one of my first four selections misses the first four I'd be disappointed but not surprised. It's that sort of race. Enjoy, and good luck.
1st - Criterion
2nd - Highland Reel
3rd - Hartnell
4th - The Cleaner
Thinker bets - week three
- Moonee Valley (Saturday) Race 1. No. 3 Credible Witness ($25 win*)
- Moonee Valley (Saturday) Race 7. No. 4 Tarzino ($25 win)
- Moonee Valley (Saturday) Race 8. No. 1 Lucky Hussler ($50 win)
* William Hill are offering money back on win bets on races 1-4 on Saturday at Moonee Valley if your horse doesn't win but finishes in the first half of the field (up to $25). I need all the help I can get. Here's a link if you want to check out all the Moonee Valley promotions and details:
http://partners.affiliatesunited.com.au/processing/clickthrgh.asp?btag=a...
Spring Carnival results - The Thinker
Cumulative return - $125 loss.
Comments
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Yes Thinker, confusing why it's called the championship of Australasia - that funny looking imaginary circle encompassing PNG, Australia, New Zealand, and any little island nation in-between.
Funny they call it this when the invite (sometimes lesser qualified) horses to compete from Europe and Asia - and no future gate closed on the Americas or Africa.
Why the hell don't they just call it
THE WEIGHT FOR AGE CHAMPIONSHIP OF THE WORLD ...
LLLLLeeeeettttttsssss get ready to rummmmbbbbbbbbllllllllleee !!!!
Submitted by a on
There are 3 races on
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No 'a'. Not including the Manikato, only Cox Plate and Mooney Valley Gold Cup this week. Three races next Saturday though.
Submitted by a on
Oh yeah
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Give tips for other races if you want but it's only these two that count this week. Melbourne races 6 and 9
Submitted by a on
Okay I will
Submitted by The Thinker on
Tips for the tipping comp
Race 6. The United States
Race 9. Criterion
Thanks Coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Melbourne Race 6 Mooney Valley Gold Cup.
1st. No. 10 BONDEIGER
Melbourne Race 9 W.S. Cox Plate.
1st No. 3 HAPPY TRAILS
Submitted by a on
I will put In My tips later on today
Submitted by chooks on
oh what a tough Cox Plate we have this year.
But I have to say my tip is Highland Reel. (winx and arod big hopes)
Criterion was not good at the Valley last year
and that is my major worry with him, big striding horse.
Arod is a slight risk at trip and Winx will need a peach of a ride.
Highland Reel is no super star but Coolmore know what they
are doing and should be prime to go.
I only like 2 other horse all week.
Chautauqua- best horse but will need a little luck. in
saying that if the luck comes he just wins.
Lucky hussler-only danger is the unknown Bow Creek (international).
outside of him this horse is just better than the rest.
good punting all and thanks Coach
Chooks
Submitted by chooks on
Sorry Coach-
tip for the Gold Cup---The united states
Submitted by a on
Race 1
1st Sweet Sherry
2nd Valliano
3rd Credible Witness
Roughie Kinetic Design
Race 2
1st Diamond Oasis
2nd Tawteen
3rd Grane
Roughie General Jackson
Race 3
1st My Poppette
2nd Don't Doubt Mamma
3rd Sempre Libera
Roughie Silent Sedition
Race 4
1st Mawahibb
2nd Holler
3rd Ability
Roughie Demonstrate
Race 5
1st Serene Majesty
2nd Harlem River
3rd Haybah
Roughie Miss Gidget
Race 6
1st Prince Of Penzance
2nd The United States
3rd Bondeiger
Roughie Bohemian Lily
Race 7
1st Pasadena Girl
2nd Tarzino
3rd Jameka
Roughie Sovereign Nation
Race 8
1st Lucky Hussler
2nd Turn Me Loose
3rd Bow Creek
Roughie Amovatio
Race 9
1st Highland Reel
2nd Criterion
3rd Winx
Roughie Kermadec
Race 10
1st Azkadellia
2nd Ballet Suite
3rd Atlantis Dream
Roughie Zarzali
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Happy Trails - 4th straight Cox Plate. Not many dues being handed out for being good enough to race the 4-peat.
Arguably he should have won the last two Cox Plates, although noone seems to be on my side about that one.
Ok then. I'll spoon feed you all.
Video exhibit A.
Cox Plate 2013.
You'll notice the one that comes with a withering run, unheard-of ground made up in the straight only to just miss out, that's Happy Trails. Should he have won it? Arguably I think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUTrpEFhh_s
Video exhibit B
Cox Plate 2014.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlkrYUr1iDg
Notice the horse in gate 2 rear up as the gates open. Gives the field over 2 lengths start. That's Happy Trails.
Watch at the 1:27 mark of the video. Happy Trails is just inside of Adelaide, and they make their runs in unison.
Adelaide gets the clearer run out wide, and notice as they reach the corner, Happy Trails runs into a dead end. Loses all momentum. Brakes on.
He then sees a gap and in a twinkling, is going at the same pace as Adelaide again. Down to the wire, he even pegs back a swidgen on the winner to finish within a length.
2 lengths lost at the start, balked on the home turn, and finishes within a length. Should he have won? Arguably I think so.
Video exhibit C
So yeah, yeah, yeah. That was 2 years ago, and 1 year ago. Who cares. Well I do but my point is, have a look at his current form
Makybe Diva 1600m.
Not his best distance but never lets Fawkners tail go in the straight. Maybe pulls back a smidge in the last 100. For the last 200, he goes toe to toe with one Mongolian Khan. You decide who wants the finish post more.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCQA9tNWLUU
Video exhibit D
Turnbull Stakes 1800m
Never a real winning chance, held up a few times in the straight, but at no stage does he turn it up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5PV8-oUgKI
..and lastly Video exhibit E.
Caulfield Stakes 2000m.
http://mobile.news.com.au/sport/superracing/caulfield-stakes-2015-criter...
Sure Criterion edges him out, but I think he gives as good as he gets. And afterall, we are talking about one of the Cox Plate hot favourites. Why dont you scroll back and watch Cox Plate 2014 and keep your eye on Criterion and Happy Trails. Who ran the better around the Valley that day?
So there you have it. I'm resting on that. No witnesses called. Not many horses that all but win two straight Cox Plates, start the next at upwards of 20/1. Mighty good value if you ask me.
If the bugger wins, I'll play this one ad-nauseum
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEqUyNaSdvg
Submitted by Coach Potato on
So I said I would re-post my theories on Mooney Valley ...
Coachride through the Valley.
178m. Shortest metropolitan home straight in Australia. You would think that it would suit a leader with a short sprint. In fact it used to. A lot. Leaders would win race after race. Like a racecar trying to pass the one on front going around a hairpin. Almost impossible.
Then they re-cambered the home corner. Raising the outside of the track to give a velodrome effect. Horses running wide around the home turn on the old track would normally succumb to centrifugal force and lose much of their forwards momentum.
Nowdays the horse that runs a bit wide (I think), actually increases forwards momentum because camber counteracts centrifugal force. Last year's winner Adelaide was a great example. No momentum lost around the home turn, and running wide gave a little sling shot effect. Truth be told, I dont think he wouldn't beat half the field home on the old track.
Watch here coming around the home turn, the wide run doesn't hurt - actually helps. Centrifugal force turns into a sling shot. Build up the most centrifugal force ... ie. Be the fastest horse going into the corner, and you will be the fastest horse coming out of the corner.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SlkrYUr1iDg
This being the case, winners at Mooney Valley are no longer leaders with a short sprint. The speed gets poured on with over 600 metres to go. Mooney Valley now suits horses that can sustain a long sprint to the line. In fact, for a track with the shortest straight, it strangely becomes one of the longest sprints home in Australia.
Horses that do well at Flemington, also do well at Mooney Valley, and vice-versa. Both completely different tracks, but both suit horses that have a long finishing burst.
My other related-theory to all this is finding the stronger horse at 200m further than the race distance. For the above reasons, I think the Valley suits the best 1400m horse in 1200m race, etc etc etc.
A race like the Cox Plate, with the speed on full tilt 600m out, turns it into a race distance almost equivalent to the Caulfield Cup. You would definitely favour a horse that runs 2400m coming back a bit in distance, over a horse that runs 1800m going up in distance.
Horses that have proven themselves at Mooney Valley are no flash in the pans. Take note of the ones with a good "track" record. You can't sneak your way around the Valley like in the old days.
Hope this all helps. And if it doesn't there's always the nice names, pretty colours and the good ol' stick-a-pin-in-it.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Current standings
THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES
Current standings
Chooks.......................10
a.....................................10
newbie from perth...8
Thinker.........................7
Footy chick.................5
Scott M.........................5
Coach Potato.............0
If you want to join in, just do it. Add you tips for both Cox Plate and Mooney Valley Cup this week. I think I can go zero to hero, but do you think you could too? Love to hear your tips. Remember this week races 6 and 9.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
10 points for 1st, down to one point for 10th.
Saturday 24/10 Cox Plate + Mooney Valley Cup
Saturday 31/10 Lexus Stakes + McKinnon Stakes + VRC Derby
Tuesday 3/11 Melbourne Cup
Triple points for the Melbourne Cup. 30 points for 1st, 3 points for 10th.
Submitted by a on
It going to be a good compertition
Submitted by Coach Potato on
We break for an NRL intermission...
Gotta say, in just three sentences Anthony Griffin won over Penrith fans, won over NSW fans, won over fans of Rugby League ...
"I’ve been a rugby league tragic since I was two or three years old and Sydney has always been the home of rugby league. It was always something I wanted to do."
“One of my dreams as a coach was to one-day coach in Sydney. I love the game and the history. To come and coach in Sydney is something that I will relish.”
“I like the fact Penrith is a tough, rugby league, working-class area."
Looking forward to 2016. They might have to lose the Chocolate Soldier tag and wear the tag of the Steel Panthers !!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Coach,
He's a top bloke.
Submitted by a on
He a good coach
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Hey Newbie, Scott M, and Chick - chopitty chop
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Yeah, sorry Coach. Got sidetracked looking for a new (used) car. The Ford Wagon (aka “Champ”) finally gave up the ghost. Is it normal to get emotionally attached to a car? He’s only 15 years old. Cut down in his prime! Oh well, life goes on I suppose but it’s still a sad day for Newbie.
OK, let’s get into it…
Moonee Valley Cup
5. TAIYOO
Excellent win strike rate of over 40% (just).
Winner at the track.
Winner at the distance.
Drops 2kgs from last start.
Less than 2 lens away in both of his last 2 starts.
Has won over 2000m (twice), 2400m (twice), 2500m (once) and 2600m (once) so we know he can handle the trip.
Mark Zahra on his back.
At around the $12 mark, I reckon he’s great value.
Ones to watch out for might be 3. PRINCE OF PENZANCE and 10. BONDEIGER.
Cox Plate
5. MOURINHO
Acceptable strike rate of 29%.
Great winning record at the track.
Just as good at the distance too (4 wins and 3 placings from 12 starts).
Same weight (59kgs) as last 3 starts so we know he can carry it.
Has won over 2025m (once), 2040 (three times) and 2200m (once) so again, we know he can handle the trip.
Vlad “The Impaler” Duric on board.
I can’t believe he’s sitting at around the $41 mark as I write this but hey, who am I to complain eh?
Ones to watch out for might be 1. CRITERION and 6. THE CLEANER.
OK, if you’re having a bet, spend wisely and best of luck. Cheers.
Submitted by Coach Potato on
No philosophy lesson today?
Ok I got one.(Chick will be going "WTF?!")
Q? Why does using the trough whilst out on the drink = needing to spit in it as well?
A: Don't know, just does.
Submitted by Footy chick on
Morning boys,
Bondeiger
Highland reel
Submitted by scott m on
The United States and ARod
Submitted by Coach Potato on
THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES
Current standings
Chooks............ 28. 1st(10) 1st(10) 3rd(8)
'a'........................27. 1st(10) 2nd(9) 3rd(8)
Thinker............ 26. 4th(7) 1st(10) 2nd(9)
Footy Chick ...16. 6th(5) 8th(3) 3rd(8)
Scott M ............15. 6th(5) 1st(10) 11th(0)
Newbie.............12. 3rd(8) 7th(4) 12th(0)
Coach Potato....4. 11th(0) 8th(3) 10th(0)
Flemington save me!!!
hooks.......................10
a.....................................10
newbie from perth...8
Thinker.........................7
Footy chick.................5
Scott M.........................5
Coach Potato.............0
Submitted by a on
Wow I 2nd I am going pretty good 4 race to go
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Current odds for the
THINKER'S SPRING CARNIVAL WORLD SERIES
Chooks.........................$1.60
'a'...….............................$1.85
Thinker .......................$2.10
Footy Chick...............$4.50
Scott M.......................$5.00
Newbie.......................$14.00
Coach Potato............write your own ticket.
Submitted by a on
Wow 1.85 odds for me
Submitted by chooks on
Cheers coach but i reckon im unders. Remember how i folded in the footy season..lol
Already looking forward to this weekend. Hope you got home in one piece thinker
Chooks
Submitted by christine on
I miss the nrl
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Just like the footy tipping, backing the favourites with the horses and proved pretty safe.
Will see if that holds up though over Derby Day and Cup day.
After a Caulfield Cup favourite and a bagful of favoured horses getting up at Mooney Valley, I bet bookies are currently screaming blue murder so I'm predicting a correction in the market sometime soon. Could be the roughest Derby Day results in years. That's my thinking.
Submitted by chooks on
the thing I find with Derby Day is you have to be careful
backing horses with form from other tracks.
Flemington track is the best track to bet at but your horse
must be competent at running the distance.
many people base their bets on horses from smaller tracks
and come up short when they hit big time Flemington.
you also have to take notice of how long your horse has been in work.
is the horse going to peak this week or has it been up for a while.
horses that peak this week have been set for this week while
other good horses generally get found out going one run too many.
I never worry about what the horse is paying, just what
sort of preparation has it had and what sort of luck
has it had at smaller tracks. Flemington gives most horses
a chance--cant say that about all tracks...
just my 2 cents....
Submitted by a on
There a 3 races on Saturday
Submitted by Coach Potato on
I think you still need to be a bit lucky at Flemington. Everyone's waiting for the clocktower but if too many hit the go button at the one time, it can still be a log-jam down the straight.
Flemington is probably the most common track I find for horses not running true to their recent form (although I can't remember the last time a Cup was won by a horse not in form).
Anyway, I don't mind backing a couple of horses a race that have been in the market recently (10/1 or less) but finished down the track from wide-ish gates. I tie all these factors together and deduce that the horse probably stopped running a little way out from the finish line, so has a little bit of energy in reserve. A little bit fresh. That's the theory anyway.
Also, for me, I'd rather bet on a big name jockey riding a broomstick, then a horse with wraps ridden by one of the B-graders. The big name jockeys have big names because they know how to win just a bit better than the others.
All this being said, I might bugger it all and let the little one pick me something out.
Submitted by chooks on
as they say...you always need a bit of luck, but your
right a good jockey will always cover most of the luck factor.
A great jockey also knows how to ride each track differently.
they all have their own quirks...(tracks)
Submitted by Coach Potato on
Is there such thing as horsey de ja vu?
2014.
#Japanese superstar: Admire Rakti.
#Comes from well, well back in the Caulfield Cup to power home a winner.
#Starts the Melbourne Cup as favourite even though bookies are happy to take him on late.
#Zac Purton takes the horse straight to the front to the astonishment of all except the percentage of the country that think horse racing stinks to high heaven.
#Admire Rakti drops dead after the finish line of a heart attack.
#Stewards are satisfied with Purton's back-the-front tactics.
#Punters across the country are outraged as bookies are spared from paying out a squillion.
2015.
#Japanese superstar: Fame Game
#Comes from well, well back in the Caulfield Cup, although not ridden with much vigour, or room, and still finishes 6th, a few lengths from the winner.
#Punters across the country are outraged as bookies are spared paying out a squillion.
#Jockey Zac Purton is grilled by stewards over his lack-lustre performance and (I'm sure with his ride in the 2014 Cup still stuck in their thoughts) try to get an assurance from him that similar riding tactics should be used in the Melbourne Cup.
#So Fame Game will start next Tuesday a hot favourite.
#Will bookies suddenly decide to take him on before the race?
#Will you see Fame Game in front with a lap to go?
I think if these one's end up with a 'yes' answer in a week's time , then not much doubt we will have - ...... horsey de ja vu.
Submitted by chooks on
I don't think that Fame Game was ever favoured to
win the CC. when he came out with barrier 1 he had no chance.
it has been said from the start that the MC was his race.
Horses very rarely can run 2 peak races in a row.
hence not every CC winner wins MC. the horse can not
go over the top in the CC or he just wont be at his best
for MC.
Fame Game was ridden in this way in the CC to have a
hit out but not a gut buster so he can perform a peak in the MC.
Im not saying he is a good thing but he will be at his best
on Tuesday and be very hard to beat...I have no doubt.