Round seventeen selections

Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Pointsbet Stadium

I've discussed previously how the season draw is never fair. Some teams get very favourable draws, and of course some teams get the opposite. When the difference between making the finals and not is often one win (or even less), it can make a huge difference to your season. This season, it's the Sharks who have the luck of the draw. The Sharks will play the following teams just once this regular season (Panthers 1st), Cowboys (3rd), Broncos (5th), Eels (6th) and Rabbitohs (7th). They also get to play each of the bottom six teams twice. Adding to their fortune, they're up against the Storm on Thursday who are without Munster, Grant and Kaufusi (and next week they get the Cowboys 48 hours after an Origin decider). Anyhoo, lucks a fortune and the Sharks find themselves in the top four. They're playing well I give them that, but after sixteen rounds they have played only three games against top six teams - they lost two of those comprehensively and scraped home over the Eels. In round six the Storm beat the Sharks 34-18 but that was in Melbourne and the Storm fielded a stronger team than they will here. The Sharks have lost Talakai to Origin duty but for teams in the top four that's a light burden (the Storm have lost 3, the Cowboys 5 and the Panthers 7). I'm sure Bellamy has been tearing strips off his troops after their performance last week, and no doubt they will respond. But luck's a fortune, and I'm tipping the lucky Sharks at home in what is likely to be difficult conditions. 

Verdict – Sharks by 1

Result – Sharks 28 defeated Storm 6

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

The Knights have a fairly friendly draw from here so you couldn't rule them out entirely of a top eight finish (mind you, their points differential is awful). They produced a dominant display over the Titans but the Titans are running last for a reason. Meanwhile, the Rabbitohs dominated the Eels and that has to be a stronger form line. Clearly the Rabbitohs are a more dynamic team with Mitchell at fullback and he's made it clear he wants to give the Bunnies the best that he can give. He won't have Cook or Murray helping him out in the middle but the rest of the team is intact. If anything, Mitchell will relish the opportunity to be more involved. 

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result – Rabbitohs 40 defeated Knights 28

Wests Tigers vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Leichhardt Oval

The Tigers decided that Michael Maguire wasn't the coach they needed in early June. Since his departure, the Tigers have lost 3 from 3, conceding 88 points while scoring just 18. What makes those recent results even more alarming, is that those three games were against the teams running 9th, 13th and 14th. They're lucky they haven't had to play a really good team. The Eels aren't a really good team, but they're better than the teams that have been running up scores against the Tigers.

Verdict – Eels by 22

Result – Eels 28 defeated Tigers 20

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

As long as Brisbane warms up a little they will get a decent crowd on Sunday. This is the Broncos second (and last) Sunday afternoon game for the year, so families will appreciate the rare chance to go to a game at a reasonable hour. A testing contest awaits the home side, with Haas, Carrigan and Capewell unavailable an under-strength forward pack will have to match it with a Dragons pack at full strength (although Jack Bird may shift into the halves for Ben Hunt).  The Dragons will miss Hunt and his leadership (and gamesmanship) though. He has had a standout season. His absence, and a big home crowd, are reasons enough to tip the Broncos in what should be a competitive affair.

Verdict – Broncos by 2

Result – Broncos 32 defeated Dragons 18

Wally Lewis - round seventeen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Sharks vs STORM
  • Knights vs RABBITOHS
  • Tigers vs EELS
  • BRONCOS vs Dragons

Comments

The Thinker's picture

I'm hearing a few whispers about Reece Walsh coming back to the Broncos (and not the Dolphins).

Watch this space.

 

newbie from perth's picture

"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,

Early post tonight. Have a strata meeting tomorrow and then out to dinner so I need to get this up tonight.

OK, my brother has always held the belief that (referee) Sutton has it in for the Roosters. I never gave it much thought really. Well, not until last week that is. Not making excuses but Sutton’s display was average at best. Crichton’s sin binning was a bit soft to be honest, critical so-so penalties gave the Panthers territory and six-agains gave them tries. Any other referee and we might’ve beaten the Panthers. Yeah, too many “ifs and buts” but still. OK, let’s do this thing …

Sharks vs. Storm @ Shark Park
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Sharks
"I was really happy with that. That was extremely tough. Obviously it's going to be difficult to be clinical with everything today in those conditions, it just kept getting harder and harder and slower and slower. I thought even though we conceded a try right on halftime, I was really happy with our goal line defence there... the Bulldogs really turned up physically today, you could see that was evident from the start," coach Craig Fitzgibbon said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 49%
Completion Rate - 72% (31/43)
Post Contact Metres - 405
Tackle Breaks - 43
Missed Tackles - 30
Errors - 16
Penalties Conceded - 5

Storm
"After 60 minutes we were getting what we deserved. We sparked a bit at the end but that's too late. At the end of the day if you're going to win games here at this level you need to be consistent the whole 80 minutes. We can make some excuses like rep round but Manly were in the same boat. I was just really disappointed in our defence and some individual performances just weren't up to scratch," coach Craig Bellamy said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 46%
Completion Rate - 84% (33/39)
Post Contact Metres - 476
Tackle Breaks - 40
Missed Tackles - 42
Errors - 8
Penalties Conceded - 6

Verdict: The Storm had an absolute shocker last week against Manly. They’ll be missing players due to Origin and this shapes as a danger game for them. The Sharks did well against the Bulldogs last week and might just have enough momentum and belief that they can snatch a win at home over a Storm outfit missing key players. Not completely confident about this one but I might go the Sharks by 6.

Knights vs. Rabbitohs @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Knights
“The last couple of minutes, when the game was put to bed, I was looking across at the stadium and thinking about them (the Newcastle fans) and I’d like to think that they’re proud of their team tonight and they can go home a bit happier. It’s only one game but to answer your question, it’s a much better feeling than what we’ve had to do,” coach Adam O’Brien said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 59%
Completion Rate - 82% (38/46)
Post Contact Metres - 753
Tackle Breaks - 25
Missed Tackles - 26
Errors - 8
Penalties Conceded - 5

Rabbitohs
"As a team we were disappointed with the opening 30 minutes against the Dragons. I think we saw a fair difference tonight. They like to play quite expansive with a lot of offloads in their game so the conditions were probably going to limit that and allowed us to tighten up and have that defensive mindset which I thought we did really well," coach Jason Demetriou. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 54%
Completion Rate - 75% (33/44)
Post Contact Metres - 556
Tackle Breaks - 33
Missed Tackles - 18
Errors - 14
Penalties Conceded - 5

Verdict: The Knights were good last week but you gotta remember they only beat the Titans (no disrespect intended). Obviously, the Rabbitohs will be a tougher assignment this week. The Rabbitohs returned to some sort of form last week when they beat the consistently inconsistent Eels. Not saying it will be a huge bonus but Latrell Mitchell will be back for his second game since injury and he’ll be all that much better for the run last week. I expect the Rabbitohs to win this somewhat comfortably (?). Rabbitohs by 10.

Tigers vs. Eels @ Leichhardt Oval
Probability @ 30-70
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Tigers
"I thought we tried hard, for a lot of periods there they defended the try line pretty well, they scored three tries, one was off a block near the post, two were off our lack of kick defusals, so it wasn’t like we were blown away," coach Brett Kimmorley said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 48%
Completion Rate - 86% (31/36)
Post Contact Metres - 638
Tackle Breaks - 17
Missed Tackles - 39
Errors - 7
Penalties Conceded - 8

Eels
"We didn't have any field position and made nine errors out of red zone so we gifted them opportunity. We're just not playing well as a team every week. We need 17 players owning their job and we're just not getting that. It's got to be individual accountability, you've got to want to do it. We're not seeing any shortcuts at training but we've got to work together and try to win the game together," coach Brad Arthur. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 46%
Completion Rate - 70% (28/40)
Post Contact Metres - 470
Tackle Breaks - 18
Missed Tackles - 33
Errors - 13
Penalties Conceded - 3

Verdict: The Eels were pretty poor last week against the Rabbitohs. With the personnel they have it was confusing to say the least. As mentioned above, the Eels are consistently inconsistent and it must be driving Brad Arthur and the fans mad. The Tigers were also pretty poor last week against the Warriors. I still can’t believe they only scored 2 points. To be honest, they seem to have some serious problems that need to be addressed and the only way out is to dig in and try and get the basics and confidence ramped up. Yeah, easier said than done I know but that’s how I see it. I think the Tigers will struggle here. As frustrating as they are I think the Eels should get this done fairly easily. Eels by 16.

Broncos vs. Dragons @ Suncorp
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Broncos
"They outplayed us tonight that's for sure... we take our hats off to them. Plenty to work on for us, but the good thing is there is nine more weeks for us to get it right and make sure that the next time we play them, and we will play them again, that we get it right. We didn't get it right tonight," coach Kevin Walters said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 46%
Completion Rate - 73% (28/38)
Post Contact Metres - 328
Tackle Breaks - 36
Missed Tackles - 48
Errors - 13
Penalties Conceded - 7

Dragons
"I thought in the first half at times we got a few penalties and we got our field position from their errors and we didn't respect the conditions as much. We were a bit lateral and didn't have enough physicality in us, so they were much more physical than us in the first half, but to our credit in the second half against the wind we played the type of football we need to play, our kicking game and our defence down their end of the field, we kept them down there for long periods in that second half which is how we won the game," coach Anthony Griffin said. Some stats possibly worth a mention:

Possession - 52%
Completion Rate - 76% (33/43)
Post Contact Metres - 473
Tackle Breaks - 27
Missed Tackles - 29
Errors - 10
Penalties Conceded - 4

Verdict: The Broncos weren’t all that bad last week against the Cowboys I must say. Unfortunately for them the Cowboys were just that little bit better (obviously). Uncharacteristically average sort of game from Reynolds but fully expect him to get back some serious improvement this week. The Dragons have surprised me lately and seem to be a genuine side. The way they handled the wet weather last week (unlike the Raiders) was good, solid footy and enjoyable to watch. Sometimes the simple things work the best. That said, it wasn’t a stellar display and the Broncos will seriously test them. Going on their effort last week I’ll be tipping the Broncos by 12.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

This one is from the best decade in music. Not sure many would have heard this guy (then again, maybe some have) but I’m here hoping to broaden your horizons 🤪. Enjoy.

https://youtu.be/UrfFHzqGBZI

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

a's picture

Hey thinker I believe in my 3 strike comp you forgot to write warriors for Nik markate2021 and gummy sharks can you please update it

newbie from perth's picture

Non-Football Related:

Major drama this morning in the Newbie household. Just finished showering and was drying off my left leg when I rubbed too hard on my calf and ruptured a varicose vein. Imagine a 1mm diameter continuous (not spurting) stream of blood shooting out 12”. To say I was “bricking it” would be an understatement 😱. Roughly 10 minutes later I managed to get to my first aid kit one handed and rig up a rough as guts bandage and realised I had gone through a completely blood soaked bath towel, a quarter roll of dunny roll and roughly 20-odd paper towels.

This happened at 4.45am and had to wait until the local doctor’s surgery opened at 8am and then had to wait until 8.30am to see him. Thankfully by then the bleeding had subsided and the nurse told me it was now “weeping” just a little. She cleaned me up, put a bandage on and the doctor told me to rest up today and I could go back to the office on Thursday. Gonna pop in Friday afternoon for a check.

After I get the all clear (hopefully) I’ll be asking the doctor for a referral to see the phlebologist (varicose vein specialist). The things life throws at you sometimes eh? Cheers…

tigerholic's picture

Hey Newbie
Sounds bloody scary(no pun intended), hope you are going ok now.

Tiger

The Thinker's picture

Gosh Newbie

Look after yourself my friend.

All the best

The Thinker

Gummy Sharks's picture

Holy crap Newbie! Hope everything is okay. You might need some fabric softener on those towels of yours.

BigPeteBx's picture

Easy does it there Newbs - SoO Decider hasn't kicked off yet!
Thinking of you Champ and I know the feeling, although not the volume of the claret you discharged. I just scratched an area where I have inflammation from torn tendon and it just oozed out until I patched it up.
Wife has had veins stripped in the past then had to have them injected as they didn't seem to disappear. U r certainly right about "things life throws at us" - at times.

Keep well mate
Big Pete

mark ashford's picture

Hey Newbie,
Being a Roosters supporter you can't afford to lose too much blood. I think I remember you saying you bleed roosters colours. I too have a couple of varicose veins but have yet to have a bleed. Keep yourself well my friend, none of us can afford to lose the red stuff.

a's picture

Hope you get better soon newbie

a's picture

Hope you get better soon newbie

a's picture

Hope you get better soon newbie

Christine's picture

Newbie stay off that wayfaring mate that rat poison makes you bleed

Christine's picture

That said newbie stay off that warfariit's rat poison you bleed like a bitch on it excuse the comment but that's what they say my father has been on it as well as others I know

Christine's picture

Last time warfarin I hate predictive text

Christine's picture

My tips storm
South's
Eels
Broncos
Good luck everyone sorry it took me so long to get my tips on ...

newbie from perth's picture

Question: Knights vs. Rabbitohs Game

Can someone please explain the actual point of sending Klemmer off at the 80:00 mark? No, seriously, what is the point? The game’s over, finished. Am I missing something here? This has this WA newbie utterly confused 🤔.

P.S. Thanks to everyone who posted well wishes regarding the “fountain of blood” episode the other day. Saw the doctor this arvo and he reckons it should be all good as long as I don’t aggravate it with rubbing too hard or knocking it. Got him to give me a referral to see a specialist who I’ll be ringing Monday to tee up an appointment. Gonna get him to laser the little sucker 💥. Cheers y’all…

@ Mary – loved the video. “Blood on your hands, blood on your feet” summed it up exactly 🤪. Thanks, it made me smile.

@ Christine – nah, no blood thinners for me. I’m a tough ol’ Rooster (excuse the pun) and not taking any meds at all and don’t plan to as long as I can help it. Prefer to go down the “natural” path whenever possible. You take care GF. Cheers.

Christine's picture

Newbie sometimes people have no choice both my parents got put on warfarin for blood clots it dissolves them but it is known as rat poison it thins the blood & your skin & if you get even a small cut it will just bleed really badly it is hard to make it stop , I new someone a long time ago that worked for years as a butcher he ended up having to have the veracious veins in his his legs stripped it was from working in the cold all the time going in & out of a cool room iy isn't good for you , keep well my friend ...

NuL1F3's picture

Hi Newbie, I am so very sorry to hear that mate! I didn't even know that was a thing that could happen! Hope you have great successes with the specialist for a less eventful future my friend.

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