Round eighteen selections

Cronulla Sharks vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Thursday night – PointsBet Stadium

The Sharks have named the same seventeen that dismantled the Bulldogs two weeks ago - note that the best reindeer in the NRL (Toby Rudolf) has been named on the extended bench but is likely to be rested for one more week. The Dragons will be without Jack Bird and Mosese Suli but they will have Ben Hunt, who has agreed to keep working on his marriage to the Dragons for a while longer. They don't look happy though. The good news for Sharks fans is that they consistently beat what I would call the poor teams, and in doing so find themselves in the top four. They've beaten one good team all year (the Eels by 4) but that was way back in round two when the Eels weren't going so well. Here they face what I can comfortably call a poor team, a team they thoroughly beat (40-8) in round four. The Dragons haven't improved since then, so a repeat of that scoreline looks likely.

Verdict – Sharks by 16

Result – Sharks 52 defeated Dragons 16

New Zealand Warriors vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Go Media Stadium, Auckland

The NRL is chugging along quite nicely this season, with attendances, memberships and viewers at near enough to all-time highs. In New Zealand, the NRL is going absolutely gangbusters. As the other rugby code bores the life out of all but the rusted-ons, the Warriors can lay claim to being the most popular sporting club in New Zealand right now. Not only has this game sold out, but it sold out days ago, and you can understand why. They're aiming for their fourth win in a row and their style of play is pretty to watch. They've always been pretty, but this year they're defending like a genuine contender. The only teams that have conceded less points than the Warriors are the Panthers and the Storm. That's top tier stuff, and a top two finish is not beyond this club. If they can secure a home final in September they'll be hard to beat - they might even have to move the game to Eden Park. Meanwhile the Rabbits are hoping to bounce back after successive losses, but this is a tough road trip. The strength of their current side is their pack, but the suspension of Jacob Host brings them down a notch. With a raucous crowd pushing the Warriors forwards on, I'll back this Warriors spine and backline to get the job done.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result – Rabbitohs 28 defeated Warriors 6

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – Marvel Stadium

It's been five years since the Panthers played a game in Melbourne. Mind you, it will be a new experience for just about everyone, with this game shunted to Marvel Stadium as our rectangular stadiums prepare themselves for the fastidious needs of the Women's Football World Cup. This was always going to be a big game, but there's added spice after Christian Welch forgot the mikes were on at the press conference following their win last week. I genuinely hoped the Panthers would rest their Origin players for another week, and give the rest of those "nobody" Panthers a chance to knock off the purple machine. That may still happen, but Cleary has named his Origin stars for now. For the Storm, Munster and Kamikamica are key inclusions. The only team to score more than 20 points against the Panthers this season is the Cowboys. The Panthers led for much of that game, only lost in extra time, and played without seven of their best. They're still without Cleary, but I do have doubts about the Storm against the very best teams. Their last three wins have all been impressive, but their opponents (Sharks, Tigers, Sea Eagles) are at least one notch below Panthers level. Even without Cleary, it's clearly the game of the round.

Verdict – Panthers by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 34 defeated Storm 16

Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The Titans narrow win over the Broncos in Brisbane has to be stronger form than the Raiders narrow win over the Roosters in Sydney, does it not? Particularly with Josh Papali'i still unavailable and doubts about Croker being fit to play. The Titans also rested Big Tino last week. The bookies don't seem to agree with me, but I don't think the Titans win last weekend was a fluke.

Verdict – Titans by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 26 defeated Titans 22

North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

These sides met quite recently, and for those of us who have tried to forget, the Tigers scored more points than any other team against any other opponent this season. While no-one wants to concede 66 points, that debacle seems to have been something of a catalyst to kick-start the Cowboys campaign. Since then, they've been competitive against the Eels, beaten the Nobody Panthers in extra time and soundly beaten the Storm and the Bunnies. That's proper form. When you also note that the Tigers haven't won a game since the earlier Cowboys game, one is willing to write that result off as some sort of bizarre outlier.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Cowboys 74 defeated Tigers 0

Brisbane Broncos vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Saturday night – The Gabba, Brisbane

The referee wasn't sure, and players from both sides backed him up, but that wasn't enough to stop the judiciary from suspending Reece Walsh for 3 games including an Origin game. It's technically four weeks, because the Broncos have a bye during this period, so it's a fair penalty for swearing. Anyhoo, Reece has been a bit of a petulant young thing in recent weeks, so it might be the wake up call he needs. We don't know who will replace him at this stage, but Tristan Sailor is on an extended bench and could gain a start. The Broncos will also be missing two key forwards, with Flegler and Riki unavailable for the Broncos first game at the home of whatever that AFL team is called that plays there. The Dolphins have struggled in recent weeks, and it does feel like their opening campaign is starting to wear them down, but here I am tipping them in a big upset here. O'Sullivan will be better for the run last week, and Marshall-King returns to the all-important dummy half role. It's a big ask, but it's been a chaotic week for the Broncos and cagey old Wayne might have one more bullet left in the chamber.

Verdict – Dolphins by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Broncos 24 defeated Dolphins 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Accor Stadium

Lean offerings from the NRL on Sunday, which opens with 15th playing 14th at the enormous echo chamber of a stadium that only Taylor Swift can fill. The Knights have won just one away game this season, scraping to a two-point victory over the lowly Tigers. That's not terrific form, but it might still be good enough for this.

Verdict – Knights by 1

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 66 defeated Bulldogs 0

Manly Sea Eagles vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – 4 Pines Park

The late Sunday fixture is slightly more interesting, primarily because of a number of interesting inclusions for the game. The Sea Eagles have Saab, Parker, Tuilagi and the other two Trbojevic brothers back in the seventeen. For the Chooks, promising youngster Siua Wong makes his NRL debut off the bench, while the soon-to-be highest paid player in Australian Rugby is back on the wing. Has the poor cousin of rugby league paid too much for Suaalii? Can a winger in an out-of-form NRL club side win the Wallabies a World Cup? Only time will tell*.

*For those of you without a lot of time, the answer to those two questions are: Yes, they did, and No, he cannot.​

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Sea Eagles 18 defeated Roosters 16

Wally Lewis - round eighteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • SHARKS vs Dragons
  • WARRIORS vs Rabbitohs
  • STORM vs Panthers
  • Raiders vs TITANS
  • COWBOYS vs Tigers
  • BRONCOS vs Dolphins
  • Bulldogs vs KNIGHTS
  • Sea Eagles vs ROOSTERS

Comments

Mary S's picture

I disconnected "Bitdefender VPN" (blocking ads) this morning and found the number of ads shown on the site had decreased dramatically - will try again at a different time to see if there is more traffic!!

Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Mary S

Thanks for checking into that. I really appreciate it.

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

Hi Boss,
I've had your website running from 7.30pm - now, with "Bitdefender VPN" turned off (blocks ads), and haven't had any bother with ads popping up everywhere.

@ all tipsters - hope The Thinker website family see this, and get back to commenting about footy, or what has been happening around them over the last couple of months!!

Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round seventeen. No perfect rounds for anyone with a few upsets late in the round. Quite a number of you managed 6 from 7 so I won't list you all, but I will give a shout out to Islander who was the only tipsters that found the Titans.

If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.

I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

I’m a little earlier than usual as I have this week off. Still cold as ice over here in Perth but at least the sun has been shining so far this week.

I’ve noticed comments every now and then (and today from Mary) regarding ads popping up here and not sure if I should say anything but I have never had any ads whatsoever pop up while I’m onsite (I use FF browser). Don’t really care either way just as long as the Boss can generate some revenue to help him run this awesome place 💪. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye: Eels.

Sharks vs. Dragons @ Shark Park
Probability @ 80-20
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Verdict: You would think the Sharks at home should have too much class against a Dragons side that seems to be falling away (both on and off the field). With all the publicity regarding Ben Hunt wanting out, not sure how the Dragons players will respond … Sharks by 18.

Warriors vs. Rabbitohs @ Mt Smart
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: The Warriors are on the boil at the moment and are in the Top 4 (and for good reason) whereas the Rabbitohs have lost 4 of their last 5 matches. This won’t be an easy task but playing at home might help … Warriors by 4.

Storm vs. Panthers @ Marvel Stadium
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The Storm seem to have found their rhythm in the last few games but 2 of those 3 were against shall we say, somewhat mediocre opposition. The Panthers rested some players last week but they’ll be returning to the fray for this one. This won’t be at AAMI (still in Melbourne though) but it should still be a close one … Panthers by 4.

Raiders vs. Titans @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: The Raiders’ win last week was a gritty one which should hold them in good stead this week at home. I was taken by surprise last week when the Titans beat the Broncos. The “new coach” factor maybe? Just wondering if they can replicate that effort this week though … Raiders by 6.

Cowboys vs. Tigers @ Townsville
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Verdict: The Cowboys are back which will make their fans on here very happy. They’ve beaten the Storm, Panthers and Rabbitohs in their last 3. Sorry Tigers supporters but I don’t think there will be a 66-18 repeat of Round 12 happening this week ... Cowboys by 12.

Broncos vs. Dolphins @ The Gabba
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: The Broncos will want to rectify last week’s effort but it may not be easy going as the Dolphins will be trying just as hard to “bounce-back” from their 48-20 drubbing from the Eels. The Broncos are a class act and the Dolphins seem to be fading as the season gets longer. It’s great to see a game being played at the Gabba … Broncos by 12.

Bulldogs vs. Knights @ Accor
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Verdict: I really thought the Bulldogs would come along this season but it feels like they’re stagnating somewhat. Next year maybe? Meanwhile the Knights lost to a severely undermanned Panthers last week so not sure where they’re at to be honest. Look, both these sides are struggling at the moment but based on potential (as I see it) … Knights by 6.

Manly vs. Roosters @ Brookvale
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: Speaking of struggling sides, these two fit into that category as well. Having said that, Manly have excuses whereas the Roosters do not 😥. My beloved Chooks really needed to win last week but didn’t (they could have) and I hope and pray they can get up here but … Manly by 4.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Grab your lady (or your man) and get close and glide around the room, you never know what might happen 😍. You’re welcome…

https://youtu.be/ncYC3QQ1Gz4

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Palson Omah's picture

Dragons, Warriors, Storms, Titans, Cowboys,Broncos,Knights,Sea Eagles

Cyril Victor 's picture

Sharks, warriors Panthers Raiders Cowboys Broncos Knights Roosters

Anonymous's picture

Hi thinker, I am not seen seeing the tipping link for some reason. I'll just my tips here.
Sharks
Warriors
Panthers
Raiders
Cowboys
Broncos
Bulldogs
Roosters

Islander here.

Chook_Dan's picture

Hi thinker.

I'll tip sharks, panthers, titans, warriors, cowboys, broncos, knights, Manly.

Cheers!

MGM's picture

Thinker, I submitted tips but I can't see them
must be quick , here they are
Sharks
Rabbits
Storm
Titans
Cowboys
Dolphins
B/Dogs
Eagles

MGM's picture

P.S.
I am 2 hrs behind here in Manila and nearly missed the deadline
Can't view the matches either(despite paying US$99 for a VPN that promised me I would be able to!).
I did submit though, 8 or nine minutes before putting in the comments section.

Fittler sucks's picture

I forgot to put tips in can I have wally’s tips

Mary S's picture

What an avalanche of tries from Cowboys tonight - they certainly made sure they weren't embarrassed this time around!!

Sorry Tigergirl, Tigerholic & Tigers 717.

Cheers
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Islander, Chook Dan, MGM

That's fine. I will add your tips for the round.

@Fittler sucks

I can give you all of Wally's tips except for the Thursday night game - you've missed the kick-off by a fair margin there.

Sorry about that

The Thinker

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