Round eleven selections

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – AAMI Park

There is an obvious form line to use as a reference for this contest - with both teams taking on the in-form Bunnies in successive weeks. The Rabbitohs knocked off the Broncos 32-6 in round nine, and backed that up with a 28-12 win over the Storm. Notably, both games were in Brisbane, so a home game for the Broncos and a neutral venue for the Storm. I was surprised at the number of Storm jerseys I saw walking around Suncorp in Magic Round - they probably had more support in the crowd than the Bunnies. On raw figures alone, you would give the Storm a slight edge, particularly as they return to Melbourne on Thursday night. A few things to consider before any of us jump to conclusions. Firstly, the Broncos have had an extra day to prepare for this, and every day helps. Secondly (and more importantly), the Broncos were without Haas and Mam when they lost to the Rabbitohs, and they are clearly a better side with those inclusions. While the Broncos recent record against the Storm reads like a horror story, this is the best the Broncos have looked in years, and the Storm have clearly come down a notch or two from that dominant level they maintained for so long. In any case, it's the game of the round, so let's all tune in and see if I'm right.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result – Storm 24 defeated Broncos 16

Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – Accor Stadium

Possibly the hardest game of the round. The Warriors beat the Bulldogs in round four but that was in Auckland and the Warriors could be in a bit of a rut at the moment. They've scored just one try in their last two games and I'm not convinced they can defend their way to a victory against the Bulldogs. Josh Addo-Carr is a welcome return for the Bulldogs in a backline brimming with exciting young talent. Clearly he wants to show everyone he's back and firing, and he'll be wanting to get the attention of the NSW Blues coach. I'm with the home side but not confidently so.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 1

Result – Warriors 24 defeated Bulldogs 12

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – BlueBet Stadium

The Roosters are struggling in attack and it doesn't look like the demotion of Sam Walker has fixed the problem. Conditions played a part, but the Chooks scored just one try against the Cowboys last week, and that was in the 78th minute when the game was well and truly over. It's the key issue on Friday night, because the Panthers still have the best defence in the competition. It's an extraordinary thing really, as the Panthers have only won one more game than they've lost. When they do lose, they don't lose by much (1, 1, 2 and 4). The most points they have conceded in any game is 20 against the Rabbitohs, and they conceded half those points in the last five minutes. When you have a team struggling in attack against the team with the best defence in the NRL, the result looks a foregone conclusion. That said, the Roosters are a proud team, so I'm expecting a tight low-scoring contest.

Verdict – Panthers by 7

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 48 defeated Roosters 4

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers – Saturday afternoon – Accor Stadium

The Tigers are in fair form - winning two in a row and the two they lost before that were contests. It's terrific, but they need to find another gear on Saturday, because the Bunnies form is on another level. I'm sure the Tigers will give a fair account of themselves, but that next gear will be hard to find.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Rabbitohs 20 defeated Tigers 0

North Queensland Cowboys vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

One swallow does not a season make, but the Cowboys were very good against the Roosters in Magic Round. Perhaps the Roosters were very bad, but it looked like the Cowboys best performance of the year thus far. You would hope they can back that up in front of their diehards at home. The Dragons, once again, lost a game where they scored as many tries as their opponent. They had plenty of chances to beat the Tigers, but some baffling and at times comical choices saw them fall short. Ben Hunt, who appears to be the lone hand holding the Dragons together as a club, becomes the 47th player to notch up 300 games in first grade. You'd think his team-mates would rally together and give the bloke something to smile about. I expect they will try, but stupidity is likely to get in the way. The Dragons have been stupid since the Paul Vaughan barbecue - perhaps it was something they ate.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Cowboys 42 defeated Dragons 22

Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – GIO Stadium

The Raiders aren't getting a lot of attention, but they have won four in a row and find themselves a part of that logjam of teams between 3rd and 9th on the NRL ladder. There's a bunch of games in the weeks ahead that the Raiders could easily win, so now would be a sensible time to back them for a top four/top eight finish...if that's your caper. I think they keep on winning this weekend. The Eels will miss the kicking game of Mitchell Moses. That puts extra pressure on the Parramatta forwards, who are up against a big Raiders pack who have had two extra days to prepare for this. They're also away from home, and the Eels havent won a game outside of Sydney this season. A Saturday night in Canberra in May doesn't sound like fun for anyone, let alone a team who are struggling on the road.

Verdict – Raiders by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 26 defeated Eels 18

Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

If you believed everything you heard and read you'd think there are 20 Newcastle Knights players playing drinking games in Kuta right now. In reality, one Newcastle player went to Bali, and it sounds like he's just been spending some quality time with his girlfriend and hanging out in the pool. Hardly headline-grabbing stuff, but don't hold your breath waiting for anyone in the media to apologise. Anyhoo...the Knights are coming off the bye which is usually a good thing. The Knights are also playing in Newcastle on a Sunday afternoon, and that has usually been a good thing too. Kalyn Ponga gets another chance to catch the eye of Queensland coach Billy Slater (but he's running out of chances). So there's plenty of reasons to get behind the Knights in this one, but I still can't. The Titans have won two in a row and hardly anyone expected them to win either, but they're going gangbusters. Their forwards are fit and firing and the halves pairing of Foran and Boyd works. The risk is that Foran can't get through the game, and you could see he was struggling at times against the Eels. Providing he can play through the pain for 80 minutes I see no reason to doubt them. For the numerologists among you, have a look at the Titans scores for the last month. There's a pattern, and I think 26 points is enough to beat the Knights.

Verdict – Titans by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 46 defeated Titans 26

Manly Sea Eagles vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – 4 Pines Park

There is some chance that Manly are becoming a rabble. They remind me a little of the Dragons - with a talented, experienced Queensland halfback trying to keep a bunch of noodlehead cockroaches in line. Cherry-Evans is giving his all, but is now suffering from Geoff Toovey syndrome. What's that, you ask? Well, I'm old enough to remember when Toovey was a fresh-faced, blue-eyed, blond-haired poster boy. Now he looks like Gollum on a bad day. Sadly for Cherry-Evans, his poster boy days are long behind him, and it's Manly's fault, I think. He should have taken the gig on the Gold Coast I say. The new poster boy will lead the Sharks around on Sunday, and gets a chance to convince the NSW selectors he is the answer. After a poor performance last week, I think he will bounce back here.

Verdict – Sharks by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Sharks 20 defeated Sea Eagles 14

Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Storm vs BRONCOS
  • Bulldogs vs WARRIORS
  • PANTHERS vs Roosters
  • RABBITOHS vs Tigers
  • COWBOYS vs Dragons
  • RAIDERS vs Eels
  • Knights vs TITANS
  • Sea Eagles vs SHARKS

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 10. Once again, the round started smoothly enough, but got harder as the weekend progressed. A handful of tipsters ended up with 6 from 8, and anyone who got more than 4 from 8 did better than most. A special shout out to JP92 - I think the only tipster that found the Cowboys this weekend.

If anyone notices anything with the tipping scores just let me know.

I will have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

RICX AM I's picture

Thinky where's the tipping option?

The Thinker's picture

@RICX AM I

That's weird

I can see it but tipsters cannot. 

I will sort it out - thanks for letting me know.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

Greetings everyone

While we are sorting out the tipping form for round eleven - anyone who needs to tip early can post their selections in the comments and I will add them if for you as soon as we can.

All the best

The Thinker

Thinker's Little Helper's picture

Tipping form should be there for applicable tipsters now, sorry about that!

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

When it comes to tipping, this “beautiful game” is making me look pretty ordinary, just like my beloved Roosters were last week. The Cowboys did their homework on the Roosters and ambushed us for a well deserved win. Hopefully the Roosters will learn from this. If not, they’ll just be making up the numbers (maybe). OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye = Dolphins

Storm vs. Broncos @ AAMI
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: I know the Storm aren’t at their usual best but they’ll be desperate to get things back on track and playing at home will help. The Broncos are sizzling at the moment and are top of the ladder for a reason. I reckon this might be a close one and could go either way … Storm by 6.

Bulldogs vs. Warriors @ Accor
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: Even though the Bulldogs have been struggling at times, they seem to be having good efforts (well to me at least) and I rate them as a genuine chance in this one, especially seeing as JAC is back 🤔. The Warriors’ attack hasn’t been all that flash lately and as far as form goes, you’d think they should get up here, however … Bulldogs by 4.

Panthers vs. Roosters @ BlueBet
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: The Panthers, as they’ve shown this year, weren’t at their usual best last week, but did enough to get the win over the Warriors. The Roosters were starting to show glimpses of getting back on track but after the Cowboys ambushed them last week, I’m starting to have second thoughts. At home, I think the Panthers should get this one … Panthers by 8.

Rabbitohs vs. Tigers @ Accor
Probability @ 80-20
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: The Rabbitohs had a really impressive win over the Storm last week and based on how they’re travelling (at the moment at least), they’re definitely looking like GF material for sure. The Tigers managed to string two wins on the trot and again will be full of confidence, but asking them to raise the bar yet again might be a stretch (yeah I know I’ve underestimated them before 😁). The Tigers will probably find this tough … Rabbitohs by 12.

Cowboys vs. Dragons @ Townsville
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Verdict: The Cowboys seem to have finally got their act together. They were very impressive last week when disposing of the much fancied Roosters. Seriously, the Dragons are really struggling at the minute and they were pretty average last week. Yeah, they could turn it around but from what I saw of the Cowboys last Sunday, I got a feeling they won’t … Cowboys by 8.

Raiders vs. Eels @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: The Raiders seem to be travelling well enough but their combined winning margin over their last 3 games totals just 11 points. Then again, a win is a win as they say. The Eels have me confused. Tons of talent and they should be winning games but they’re not for some reason. I do know that they should (in theory) provide a tougher challenge than the Raiders have had lately. Another game I think might go down to the wire. Call me mad but … Eels by 4.

Knights vs. Titans @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Titans
Bookies Favourite = Titans

Verdict: The Knights are at home and will be nice and fresh, courtesy of the bye. Not quite sure how they’ll fare against the Titans though. To my mind I don’t think they have enough firepower. Mind you, the Titans’ defence isn’t all that great but they do look very capable when in attack though. The Titans had a tough win over the Eels last week and I have a feeling they’ll get another 2 points here … Titans by 6.

Manly vs. Sharks @ Brookvale
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Verdict: Manly started the year well but it seems the wheels have fallen off a bit. They looked pretty average last week and I’m unsure if they’re capable of turning it around in time for their hitout against the Sharks. Scoring 16 points in the last fortnight is just not good enough. Mind you, they’re at home and have the talent so you just don’t know. The Sharks were pretty average last week as well and their “effort” took me by surprise. I’m thinking the “bounce-back” might be on the cards this week. In theory, the Sharks’ talent should reassert and get the job done … Sharks by 8.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

The groove, the harmonies, the dance moves … it just brings joy to my soul.

https://youtu.be/pEmX5HR9ZxU

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

BigPeteBx's picture

Evening Thinker - just in case there is a delay or glitch on rolldown. I've logged in with my Round 11 Tips and didnt show, so I logged back in again and they are showing but not when I log out. We have our annual sports awards night tomorrow night and there's been some arranging I attend to as part of committee position I hold and have for 38 years now.
My Selections are - Storm, NZ, Penrith, Rabbits, NQld, Raiders, Knights, & Manly in a close one.
Cheers and you all keep well - BigPeteBx

Chook_Dan's picture

Hi thinker,

Thought I had saved my tips. Might be too late but I'm tipping Bronx, warriors, roosters, souths, cowboys, eels, titans, sharks.

Guru Craig's picture

Worst display of officialdom The Guru has seen in years...Bunker Barry and Ref Crocker!

MGM's picture

Some may consider this a moot point, but points differential Matters!... especially this year with clusters of teams equal on ladder points.
In the last 30 seconds of tonight's match Xavier Coates runs away to score after the ball clearly bounces off Olam's head. Maybe not clearly to the ref but DEFINITELY NOT played at CLEARLY !
25 SECONDS TO GO!... LET IT PLAY OUT REF !!!!!.... Todd F#(king Smith!!... You KNOW it will be reviewed if Coates runs in a try and if not the (useless in this case) bunker can then call it back if Olam's knocked on.
I had to look up your name Todd Smith but to me you will always now be TOSSER SMITH !

MGM's picture

WHAT if the game was in the balance?!!
MAYBE it was off his shoulder, or chest/torso but it was NOWHERE NEAR his arm or hand.... What IS clear is that you, ref, had no idea, NO clear vision.
This is not decision making worthy of a first grade NRL referee!
You are aware of the clock "Tosser" ... LET IT PLAY OUT !
Back to schoolboy matches with you !

newbie from perth's picture

🔊 MGM …

I’ll keep this short’n’sweet. Regarding your comments on the refereeing and bunker in tonight’s Storm/Broncos game, I’m inclined to agree with you 100%. There, all done…

The Thinker's picture

@BigPeteBX and Chook Dan

Your tips are in gentleman. Best of luck.

@Guru, MGM and Newbie

I'm with you...plenty of howlers last night. 

Dragging the 80 minutes into eternity and for what? To get it wrong anyway.

Mary S's picture

@ MGM,

Now I know why your avatar is a roaring lion - great stuff!!

Cheers,
Mary

Mary S's picture

I read the match report this morning (https://www.nrl.com/news/2023/05/11/munster-supreme-as-storm-continue-do... ) as I was too disgusted last night, with aspects of the match.

Was very impressed with Kevvie Walters restraint, when obviously asked about the refereeing, and I quote "I won't make any comment because my contract's not big enough to pay the fine. "

Cheers,
Mary

Tigers717's picture

Hi Mr Thinker I have just noticed my points for round 10 have not been added Thanks

The Thinker's picture

@Tigers717

I've gone through all the round ten submissions and your picks aren't there.

I will email you directly.

All the best

The Thinker

Fittler sucks's picture

Dogs panthers rabbits raiders cows titans sharks

Fittler sucks's picture

I can’t enter my tips appreciate I missed the broncos game can I tip dogs panthers rabbits cows raiders titans sharks

The Thinker's picture

@Fittler sucks

Yes, that's fine. I'll put those in for you.

Esra Star's picture

I think the 6 again is causing all the injuries and it is also ruining the game. Put that together with very ordinary officials and the game is now very frustrating to watch. You watch 10 tackles and nothing happens and the see one that looks as clean as and the ref signals a 6 again!!!

a's picture

The tide head are you submitting my tip for my 3 strike comp

Christine 's picture

Sorry for my absence this season I am out of action at present everyone ...

MGM's picture

@ Mary, Newbie & Thinker,
Thanks for the support ... sometimes I think I say Too much or get Too passionate !
Mary - my initials are MGM, my business name is MGM Painting and my car Number Plate is MGM followed by my date of birth (got those plates back in the 90's before they started charging $100p.a. for personalized plates so it's been worth hanging onto them whenever I upgrade my car!) ... so it made sense to use the MetroGoldwynMayer symbol as an avatar :-)
But I do like your take on it (haha).

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