Round fifteen selections

Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers – Thursday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Ms Thinker reckons that if the Titans were your husband you'd be disappointed with their performances in the second half. I think I know what she's referring to but I'm trying not to picture it in my mind. Once again, the Titans led at half time only to be run down by the Rabbitohs in round 14. There's too much of a pattern for it all to be a coincidence, and I haven't a clue how they will change the pattern. More importantly, it feels like the Titans aren't sure how to change it either. On Thursday night they face the Tigers, a team that has finished strongly in the second half in their last two performances. There's a pattern there for both sides, so there's a fair chance that the Titans will start well on Thursday, only to be run down by the fast-finishing Tigers when it matters most. 

Verdict – Tigers by 1

Result – Titans 28 defeated Tigers 12

Canberra Raiders vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – GIO Stadium

On form you would give the Warriors every chance in this, but this is one of those circumstances where form won't count for much. The Canberra Raiders have played 1075 first grade games in their history, and a Croker has been on the team list in 617 of them. On Friday night, Jarrod Croker plays game number 300. It looked like a milestone he wouldn't quite make, but here he is, and he's in some of the best form of his career. The Warriors have been terrific in recent weeks, but the Raiders lift for this and they win. They simply win. It would be a fitting touch if Croker himself slots the winning conversion from the sideline to seal the victory. Fingers crossed we get the fairytale.

Verdict – Raiders by 2

Result – Warriors 36 defeated Raiders 14

Manly Sea Eagles vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Friday night – 4 Pines Park

There was always a likelihood that the depth of the Dolphins inaugural roster would be tested this season, and things are starting to get testing. Suspensions to Kaufusi, Wallace and Milford, and a season-ending injury to Tom Gilbert leave the Dolphins stretched. There is some good news though, with Sean O'Sullivan recovering well from his injury. He's not back this weekend, but he isn't far away. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles have found a way to convince the people that matter that Tom Trbojevic wasn't concussed in Origin after all. Or, at least, less concussed than people thought. He's a big boost to a refreshed team playing at home in front of their ardent supporters. It's hard to tip against them.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Sea Eagles 58 defeated Dolphins 18

St George Illawarra Dragons vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday afternoon – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium

In the early rounds of this season the Rabbitohs struggled with their attack, but ever since they cracked the half century against the Bulldogs in round six they've made the ball sing. Last week they racked up 46 points on the Gold Coast, and they did that with their high profile fullback unavailable and losing their two Origin representatives during the game to injury. Those three (Mitchell, Arrow, Murray) won't be available for this game, but the remaining Rabbitohs are still a high quality opponent for anyone. Siliva Havili is a welcome return to their engine room and Shaquai Mitchell, a terrific story, moves into the starting thirteen at lock. For the Dragons, Jack de Belin has succumbed to his head injury and won't be available, Jack Bird is one more week away from a return, and who knows who will put their hand up to coach the mighty Red V. To think this once glamour side won 11 premierships in a row back in the day. The empire has fallen.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 7

​​​​​​​Result – Dragons 36 defeated Rabbitohs 30

Brisbane Broncos vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

The NRL ladder this season won't always be an accurate representation of how teams are travelling. The most glaring examples are the Broncos and Rabbitohs, who have won more games than the team on the top of the ladder. In fact, those two sides have played two more games than all the other teams in the top five. Both teams get their first bye (and free two points) after this weekend, and I'm sure they'll appreciate the chance to refresh. The Broncos return to, as Kotoni Staggs might say, their f*cking home on Saturday night. They do so after racking up successive victories on the road. They weren't expected to win either, but did so with Origin-impacted squads against two teams who make zero of two-fifths of buggar all of a contribution to the Origin series. It says something about the depth of their squad, which has grown up and look a genuine premiership contender. They'll need to keep winning through the back end of the season, which is where it all came unstuck last year, but two Byes will help in that regard. If Reynolds stays fit and well I think they're the team to beat. Such a team should take care of the Knights. The Knights are going okay, but their last win was at home against a Manly side without it's Origin stars, and before that they got touched up by the Sharks. Given the Sharks couldn't beat the Origin-impacted Broncos last week I think this result picks itself. We could even see a blowout here.

Verdict – Broncos by 22

​​​​​​​Result – Broncos 24 defeated Knights 20

Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

A lot can happen in a month. These sides met in round 11, where the Panthers gave the Chooks a 48-4 footballing lesson. But with the hamstring injury to Nathan Cleary, the Chooks will give themselves a chance in this. They're wrong. The Panthers get an opportunity to make a statement about their premiership credentials and Luai gets an opportunity to prove he's entitled to a Blues jersey if his playmaking sidekick isn't starting alongside him.

Verdict – Panthers by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 30 defeated Roosters 6

Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park

It's a big game for Nicho Hynes on Sunday. It would have been anyway, but it comes with added pressure now. Hynes gets a chance to lead a team away from home and convince Brad Fittler he's the player that can lead a team around the park in a must-win contest. I've no doubt he can do that, but the Sharks have struggled against the top teams this season, and the Storm will be as cranky as their coach after their performance last week. If Munster takes control of this game, and I've no doubt that he can, then the Storm win and the NSW coach will have some thinkering to do. Expect a big game from Christian Welch also, with the QLD coach on the lookout for a few forwards that can handle themselves when the stakes are high.

Verdict – Storm by 7

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 54 defeated Sharks 10

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels – Monday afternoon – Accor Stadium

I've mentioned State of Origin a few times already, but it's impact on the NRL season at this time of the year can't be under-stated. These two teams are impacted greatly by that series, but Brad Fittler will be watching this game with interest. Most of his interest will be focused on the performances of the two halfbacks (Moses and Burton), either of whom could find themselves in the halfback jersey for NSW in game two. Of most interest of all will be their kicking games, because NSW needs a halfback who can kick long and find the grass and/or kick high and put the QLD back three under dizzying pressure. There's another very important issue to flag about this game, which I'll talk around rather than talk about directly. There's some chance Moses may be partnered with a new playmaker for this game, so keep an eye out for any changes to the named line-ups. All that focus on the playmakers, but this game could be run and won in the middle. The two big inclusions for the Eels are Campbell-Gillard and Paulo - two of the best prop forwards in the game. With those two talismen taking charge in the middle, they'll give Moses every chance to impress.

Verdict – Eels by 7

​​​​​​​Result – Eels 34 defeated Bulldogs 12

Wally Lewis - round fifteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • TITANS vs Tigers
  • RAIDERS vs Warriors
  • SEA EAGLES vs Dolphins
  • Dragons vs RABBITOHS
  • BRONCOS vs Knights
  • Roosters vs PANTHERS
  • STORM vs Sharks
  • Bulldogs vs EELS

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder, the tipping comp after round 14, and the State of Origin comp after game one.

Congrats to NuL1F3, the only tipster that found all seven winners in round 14. Outstanding work there.  Much like the NRL ladder, we have a crowded leaderboard in the tipping comp this season - currently, MGM has their nose in front of a crowded pack of probable contenders.

And a shout out to tipster 'a' - 'a' predicted the exact score of the first Origin game and even picked the exact number of tries scored by the back three. 

If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know. 

I'll have my previews and selections published in the next two days.

All the best

The Thinker

NuL1F3's picture

Thank you Thinker!

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

Got nothing to say really so I’ll quote Anthony Powell:

”Growing old is like being increasingly penalised for a crime you haven’t committed.”

Don’t know who Anthony Powell is? Nah, neither do I 😂. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye: Cowboys

Titans vs. Tigers @ Cbus
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Titans
Bookies Favourite = Titans

Verdict: The Titans got smashed last week but prior to that they’ve looked fairly solid. The Tigers are playing some pretty good footy lately and I thought they were a bit unlucky last week. I know they’re playing at home but … Tigers by 4.

Raiders vs. Warriors @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: The Raiders were not that impressive last week (to me at least) and I’m not all that confident about them continuing their winning run, even at home. The Warriors are quietly rolling along and looked good last week. They seem to be a decent chance here … Warriors by 6.

Manly vs. Dolphins @ Brookvale
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Manly

Verdict: Manly have been sometimes average this year but I think Turbo is back and at home after a week off, they might just be a chance here. The Dolphins weren’t that good last week, albeit they had to travel to NZ and even though I’ve underestimated them all year, I’m wondering if they’re up for this ... Manly by 6.

Dragons vs. Rabbitohs @ Kogarah
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: The Dragons haven’t been all that bad recently, especially last week against the Panthers. The Rabbitohs hit their straps last week and are back in the groove you would think. The Dragons are up against a class act here … Rabbitohs by 10.

Broncos vs. Knights @ Suncorp
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: I was half expecting the Broncos to fall last week with key players missing but they were pretty impressive in their win over the Sharks. The Knights are doing well enough against lesser sides but their away form is lacking. Even though they’re coming off a bye, I just can’t see them causing an upset here … Broncos by 10.

Roosters vs. Panthers @ Allianz
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: The Roosters’ form this year is average to say the least. I hate to admit this but I thought they were lucky to get away with the win last week. The Panthers got pushed by the Dragons last week but I can see them returning to their usual best and shouldn’t have much trouble sneaking in here, even without Cleary … Panthers by 6.

Storm vs. Sharks @ AAMI
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: This should be a close one. The Storm are usually strong at home and Bellyache would’ve given them a revving after last week’s losing effort. Mind you, I reckon the Cowboys would’ve beaten most sides given the mood they were in. Yeah, the Sharks were beaten last week but they were beaten by a really classy Broncos side. No shame in that. The Sharks have talent and their record on the road is very good but … Storm by 4.

Bulldogs vs. Eels @ Accor
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Verdict: The Bulldogs were good last week and some may think they were a bit unlucky to lose by a solitary point. As I’ve mentioned a few times, they’re very capable and I have a lot of time for them. The Eels’ last two wins were very good and they had last week off so they’ll be ready to go (they’re a better side than their ladder position suggests) … Eels by 8.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

This band is possibly the greatest survivors in rock history. Extended version with lots of great photos from back in the day (1969) and right up to today. Awesome!

https://youtu.be/4qa96cC3E44

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Christine 's picture

Just thought I would say hi to the regulars on this site , I miss my home away from home the only year I have missed being on here ...

NuL1F3's picture

I had wondered why we hadn't heard from you Christine! I hope your health is, well, as good as it can be but not treating you too poorly during these colder months.

NuL1F3's picture

Oh, and thanks for the SOTW Newbie! I think death is the only way this band retires!

JhayMare's picture

Hi Thinker,
Just Noticed that my round 14 points have never been updated again.

Thanks

Mary S's picture

Hi JhayMare,
Do you every check, after you have submitted your tips, if they have gone through OK?

If you go back to Round 14, under The Thinkers previews, you will see the following -
'Guest tips for this round'
'See these tips on one page'

Click on the 'tips on one page' and you can always check if your tips went through. It helps that the tipsters are listed in alphabetical order!

Cheers,
Mary

Esra Star's picture

That damn 6 again takes the game away from the spectators,i think. If you are watching the game on the telly you have no idea what it is being called for.

Mary S's picture

@
Baggy, Buzz 105, Fittler sucks, jhc 1989, scott m, teraflare, Tough Bunny.

Not to late to put your tips in the comments section for Round 15.

Cheers,
Mary

Fittler sucks's picture

I forgot to put tops in can I just have the same as wally’s tips please

MGM's picture

I should have known better than to tip the Roosters when even Newbie didn't take them this week !!
Just had a feeling an upset was on the cards ... and I was right, but turns out it was the Dragons giving me that vibe.
Coming to you from the Philippines at the moment and until the 28th!

The Thinker's picture

@Fittler sucks

I can give you the same tips as Wally except for the first game on Thursday night - that game was half over and I can only accept tips before the kick off of the first game of each round.

Sorry about that.

All the best

The Thinker

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