Round sixteen selections

North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

It's fitting (and a bit fairer) that the two teams that provide the most Origin players face each other during an Origin-depleted round. It's astonishing that the team currently 14th on the ladder is one of them. The Cowboys have been much better at home than on the road, and the big win over the Storm in round 14 was their best so far. They've had a bye since then to freshen the legs, but let's hope they didn't lose their magic powers during the spell. This is a team that should and could still play finals football this season. Notably, Jason Taumalolo returns from a lengthy break and bolsters a formidable pack of forwards. The Panthers pack is, of course, pretty formidable too. That said, a boisterous home crowd should help propel the home side. This Cowboys backline has enough experience and firepower to score enough points against a Panthers backline without Cleary; Luai, Crichton and To'o. Note that this is the first time this season the Panthers will be without their Origin players, and a road trip to North Queensland against a Cowboys team that's starting to find their mojo is no easy task. The Panthers are still the favourite here and probably should be, but it's the Cowboys in an upset.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result – Cowboys 27 defeated Panthers 23

Newcastle Knights vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

Mark Twain might say the rumours of the death of the Sydney Roosters are greatly exaggerated, and I would agree with him, but it's pretty clear that things aren't hunky-dory at the glamour club. They are the only team in the NRL that haven't scored 30 points in a game this season, and they have only managed more than 20 points against three teams (Dragons, Bulldogs and Eels). On Saturday they'll be without Tedesco (who has scored five of their last nine tries), so they aren't likely to score more than 20 against the Knights either. They've also lost 6 of 8 games away from home (and one of those two away wins was at a neutral venue). I can't see the Chooks turning things around against an in-form Knights in Newcastle.

Verdict – Knights by 7

Result – Roosters 18 defeated Knights 16

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

It's interesting that these sides won't be without their first-choice halfbacks on Saturday, with Cherry-Evans relaxing in Camp Queensland while NSW loads several tonnes of responsibility onto the shoulders of Mitchell Moses. What makes it even more interesting is that Jake Arthur will make his debut for the Sea Eagles in the all-important halfback role. I'm sure he'll be keen to impress and I hope he goes well, but his opponent here will have a pretty good understanding of his game, even moreso given they are coached by his Dad. He joins Schuster in the halves, and the last time Schuster was without Cherry-Evans the Manly attack was a bit of a hot mess. There's no doubting his enormous talent, but this is the sort of game he needs to grab with both hands if he wants to sign a contract anything like his Agent has been suggesting. Meanwhile, the Eels new halves combination is Ryan Matterson and Daejarn Asi, so that's interesting too. I suspect King Gutho will have a busy afternoon and he will need to for the Eels to succeed. It's a big ask, even for a king. I'm with the Sea Eagles in another upset result.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Eels 34 defeated Sea Eagles 4

Wests Tigers vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – Campbelltown Sports Stadium

I've been at this caper for a while now, and throughout my time thinkering away I have regularly applauded the Melbourne Storm for their consistancy. I've regularly referred to them as the purple machine or a metronome, because in an unpredictable competition they were one team you could rely on. Two weeks ago they conceded 45 points to a team near the bottom of the ladder. One week later they scored 54 points against a team in the top four. The world has changed, and it feels a bit like when I finally accepted that Santa wasn't real (sorry kids). Craig Bellamy is the grinch that stole my rugby league Christmas. So now I have to sit down and actually thinker about these Melbourne Storm games, because anything is possible. I think they'll miss their Origin players and Christian Welch on Saturday, but not much more than the Tigers will miss Koroisau and Brooks. Unpredictable the Storm may now be, but they are still in the top three. They're no longer an admirable metronome, but they are still very very good.

Verdict – Storm by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 28 defeated Tigers 6

Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – PointsBet Stadium

The Sharks are the Matthew Hayden of rugby league. That's perhaps a bit harsh on Matt Hayden, who was regularly accused of being a flat-track bully that would struggle against better opposition. Eventually, Matt Hayden proved the doubters wrong, and perhaps Cronulla will do the same. For now though, they are a team that struggle against the better teams, and if you ever want to win a premiership you need to beat the better teams. Their only premiership in their entire history was in 2016, an era where the club was embroiled in high-level and systemic salary cap cheating. They kept their 2016 premiership ring because, miraculously, they happened to be under the cap that year. They weren't in the years prior or the years after, but miracles can and do happen. Anyhoo, that was quite some time ago, and I expect their accounting and their prescriptions are now all above board. On Sunday they're playing at home against a very inexperienced team that are starting to struggle. Nicho Hynes, treated somewhat unfairly by the NSW Origin selectors, gets a chance to atone at club level, and I hope he bounces back. Providing the weather is fair, they'll pack the joint on a Sunday in the shire, and the Sharkies will salute.

Verdict – Sharks by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Sharks 48 defeated Bulldogs 10

Wally Lewis - round sixteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Cowboys vs PANTHERS
  • KNIGHTS vs Roosters
  • EELS vs Sea Eagles
  • TIGERS vs Storm
  • SHARKS vs Bulldogs

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 15. Some more surprise results, but a big shout out to Elizabeth - our only tipster who picked all eight winners in round 15. A slightly smaller shout out to Bulga - our only tipster who picked seven winners.

As always, if anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.

Just five games in round 16 and our first game doesn't kick off until Friday night. I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday. 

And for those of you participating in the State of Origin tipping comp, make sure you get your predictions in before kick off next Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Tony 's picture

Hi , don’t know who you are but you are passionate for the game and I look forward to seeing your tips every week. I look forward to you getting a full round , can’t remember the last time that happened. Good Luck 😉 Tony 🏈

Daniel Ravu's picture

Nrl round 16

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

No footy on Thursday night feels a little strange but not to worry, it’ll give me a bit of extra time to get a couple of things done. Anyway, it seems like my beloved Chooks’ 2023 season is basically gawn. I’ve all but resigned myself to that being the case. The way they’re travelling they’ll be lucky to make the 8. It also seems like the only way they might “jag” a win is if I tip against them. Annus Horibillus! OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye: Broncos, Dolphins, Dragons, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Titans & Warriors.

Cowboys vs. Panthers @ Townsville
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: Playing at home and showing some welcome improvement lately, will the Cowboys be good enough to beat a Panthers side missing players because of Origin? This could possibly go either way but … Panthers by 4.

Knights vs. Roosters @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Verdict: The Roosters (sadly for me) have lost their way this year. Wouldn’t be surprised if the Knights knocked them off here to add to their misery. Ratings and bookies agree so maybe the only way for me to win (tipping point or the win for my BBB) is to tip against them 🤪 … Knights by 6.

Eels vs. Manly @ CommBank
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Verdict: The Eels seem to be back on track which will make Baggy very happy. This could be close but with the game at CommBank and Manly missing a few … Eels by 8.

Tigers vs. Storm @ Campbelltown
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The way the Tigers underperformed last week against the Titans and the emphatic win from the Storm over a class opponent in the Sharks, this one should pick itself … Storm by 12.

Sharks vs. Bulldogs @ Shark Park
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Verdict: The Sharks were rubbish last week and will be looking to “bounce back” at home against a “not too bad” (well except for last week that is) Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are capable on their day, but the Sharks have a point to prove here … Sharks by 8.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

A band everyone knows and (hopefully) loves. They were very young and very different when they first started. Check this one out …

https://youtu.be/_6MwzSaBBQY

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Auani Lahui's picture

Expert tips for round 16

Mary S's picture

Hi Boss,

If you don't hear from Baggy & jhc1989 with their picks in the comments, can I submit the following on their behalf please?
Cowboys
Knights
Eels
Storm
Sharks

Cheers,
Mary

Esra Star's picture

I am reading Ben Hunt wants out of the dragons. He reminds me of Darius Boyd. Both great players but mentally fragile.

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