Round twenty five selections

North Queensland Cowboys vs Cronulla Sharks – Thursday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

How to pick a winner when you have doubts over the credentials of both teams. I've no idea, so perhaps you should wait until some of the smarter tipsters let you know what they think. The Cowboys went through a period where they were low flying, racking up big wins over the Rabbitohs and the Storm, and beating the Tigers by the largest margin in just about forever. Since then, they've lost successive games to the Titans and the Broncos and are spluttering in attack. Meanwhile, the Sharks are winning again and actually beating some reasonable teams. Can they beat the genuine premiership contenders this season? I think not. But perhaps the Cowboys aren't genuine contenders after all. The other point of reference is from round 9 when these sides met in Sydney. On that occasion the Sharks dominated 44-6. I don't expect a result like that, not up in Townsville when the Cowboys have so much on the line, but I'm very reluctantly tipping the Sharks in what would be something of an upset result. It would certainly upset me.

Verdict – Sharks by 7

Result – Sharks 32 defeated Cowboys 12

New Zealand Warriors vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – Daniel Anderson Stadium, Auckland

First and foremost I should mention the name of the venue, it's a temporary thing, but it's terrific. There's a range of fundraising initiatives across the round for Daniel Anderson - one of those things the NRL does very well. Now that I have that out of the way, I'm going to suggest something that could be a little bit silly - the Manly Sea Eagles can make the top 8 this year. I've said some silly things in the past, but that could be the silliest of them all. To do so, they'll need to win each of their last three games this season, and this is definitely the hardest of the three. But, this isn't beyond them. Their performance against the Panthers last week would have beaten most other teams, and a repeat of that effort might be enough here. There's still some doubts over Egan, Nikoll-Klokstad and even Johnson (although he will almost certainly play). With the Warriors top four finish essentially locked in I'm willing to tip an upset here. Note that even if the Sea Eagles do win their last three games they will need teams ahead of them on the ladder to fall over. So there's a lot of moving parts that need to move the right way for Manly. Should it happen, don't forget that I was the crazy lunatic willing to look like an idiot and predict such an outrageous outcome.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 1

Result – Warriors 29 defeated Sea Eagles 22

Parramatta Eels vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – CommBank Stadium

The Roosters have three players in their seventeen with the same surname, and they're not related to each other. It's probably happened before, and they were probably called Smith too. Here's two teams just outside the top eight with their fingers on the precipice - the losing team can plan their end of season holiday. The Eels will be pleased to see Reagan Campbell-Gillard and Maiko Sivo returning from suspension, but the loss of Mitchell Moses is a big one. He's their organiser, primary kicker and goal kicker. The new halves pairing of Asi and Brown won't have played together often, and the pressure is on to make it work quickly. Meanwhile, Drew "I'll do anything" Hutchinson is the halfback for the Chooks as Sam Walker nears his return to first grade. He scored a double last week in that role - not a bad result for a Mr Fix-it. A shout out to one of the Smiths, Billy Smith, who had a wretched run with injuries but is showing us how good he can be when he gets to play football. In a disappointing season for the Roosters, his season has been a shining light.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Roosters 34 defeated Eels 12

Wests Tigers vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Saturday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

It's seems unusual that the team that is clearly last on the ladder is a red hot favourite here. It's unusual, but it makes sense. The Dolphins have won just one of their last nine games and the list of players they lost to HIA protocols and injuries last week is extensive - Stone, K Bromwich, Marshall-King, Tabuai-Fidow and Lemuelu. In recent weeks the Tigers have had competitive losses to the Raiders and the Warriors away from home. That should be good enough here. It's enough to get Dragons fans nervous.

Verdict – Tigers by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Tigers 24 defeated Dolphins 23

Gold Coast Titans vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – CBus Super Stadium

I can't imagine many of you are planning on tipping the Titans on Saturday night - if the Panthers bus broke down on the way to the ground they'd stand a chance. Respectfully, the Titans spine of Kini, Campbell, Weaver and Randall doesn't look like it has the class or experience to trouble a side that are rarely troubled by anyone.

Verdict – Panthers by 20

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 40 defeated Titans 14

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – WIN Stadium

The Dragons may awaken from their season slumber if the Tigers win earlier in the round, but even a fired-up Dragons aren't likely to test a Storm outfit trying to secure a top four finish. Ryan Papenhuyzen is perhaps one week away from his return to first grade - his performances for the Sunshine Coast Falcons indicate he's come back in fine fettle. This is the Dragons last game of the year in Wollongong. It would be nice if they gave fans in the Gong something to cheer for, but they've lost four of their five games at this venue, and their only win was a narrow (and fortuitous) victory over the Tigers.

Verdict – Storm by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 38 defeated Dragons 28

Newcastle Knights vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

Back in the day the Sunday afternoon road trip to Newcastle used to be a proper headache for visiting teams. It's feeling like that again now, with the Knights on a genuine winning streak and selling this game out days ago. Before this string of wins the Knights were in 14th place, and now they are entrenched in the top eight and appear destined for a finals finish. It's no surprise that much of this success has coincided with the dynamic form of Kalyn Ponga. Given many of us wondered if he would ever play the game again at one point this season, we should just appreciate it while we can. The battle of the fullbacks (Ponga v Mitchell) is a tasty contest - either player could win this game in a moment of brilliance. We all know the Bunnies can turn it on and beat anybody, but they haven't done that for a while now. Given that, I'm with the home side in what should be the game of the round.

Verdict – Knights by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 29 defeated Rabbitohs 10

Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The Raiders appear to be in some sort of death spiral but they catch a break on Sunday, taking on a team that are spiralling more quickly than they are. Croker returns in the centres and I imagine the coach had some interesting feedback for the squad after last week. With that in mind, and the return to a venue where the Bulldogs haven't won a game for nearly a decade, and the Raiders get an opportunity to find some much-needed form before the finals.

Verdict – Raiders by 16

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 36 defeated Bulldogs 24

Wally Lewis - round twenty five selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • COWBOYS vs Sharks
  • WARRIORS vs Sea Eagles
  • Eels vs ROOSTERS
  • TIGERS vs Dolphins
  • Titans vs PANTHERS
  • Dragons vs STORM
  • Knights vs RABBITOHS
  • RAIDERS vs Bulldogs

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 24. It's not easy to get a perfect round in the NRL...usually. More than half of us scored 8 from 8 on the weekend - probably a lot more than half. I stopped counting and I won't bother with a list of all the perfectionists...but well done lots of us. Even The Thinker got a perfect round, and a clumsy butcher could count the number of perfect rounds I've jagged over the last decade on one hand.

If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.

I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

Hello again

This may be of interest to some of you - as the Brisbane Broncos are a publicly listed company you can access their financial results, which have just been released for the first half of this year.

The Broncos made a profit of $5.41 million in the first 6 months of the year. This compares with $3.64 million for the first 6 months of 2022.

Note that these results do not include the Broncos Leagues Club (and the pokies) which is a separate business.

Given that the Broncos are likely to host one, and perhaps two, home finals, they will probably have a strong second half to the year too.

They are a powerhouse, on and off the field.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

And this is probably more interesting to more people - Payne Haas has agreed to a contract extension with the Broncos.

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

I suppose everyone’s watching the girls take on England in the semi-final. I’m a bit weak (too stressful) to watch it live though. I’m currently taping it and will look at the result later tonight. If we win I’ll watch the replay but if we lose I’ll delete it. Yeah, I’ve already mentioned I’m weak so no need to remind me 🤪.

What is going on peeps? Three comments up until mine and they’re all from the Boss? Chop! Chop! Get those fingers tappin’. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye = Broncos

Cowboys vs. Sharks @ Townsville
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Verdict: The Cowboys will be fresh after the bye, they’ll be at home and they have more to play for than the Sharks. Speaking of the Sharks, I’m concerned at their lack of recent consistency. Yeah, their last 2 wins were good but are they back in the groove or were their opponents below par? My head is telling me one thing but my gut is telling me another … Cowboys by 6.

Warriors vs. Manly @ Mt Smart
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: The Warriors are on a roll and will be at home. Pretty sure they’ll want to cement in 3rd spot so I don’t expect them to slacken off here. Manly seem to be struggling and will have their work cut out for them here. I’m not saying they can’t win this (because they can) but … Warriors by 10.

Eels vs. Roosters @ CommBank
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: The Eels have enough talent to win this but it’s not been made any easier with Moses out of the side. You’d expect after their thrashing last week they’d be up for a “bounce-back” but I’m not too sure it’s doable here. The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4 but they were against so-so sides. Funnily enough I rate the Eels tougher opposition than those 3 and this could be a close one but … Roosters by 6. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Tigers vs. Dolphins @ CommBank
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Tigers

Verdict: OK, the Tigers are sitting bottom of the table but they’ve been pretty good lately. Did well against the Warriors and could’ve (should’ve) beaten the Raiders. The Dolphins confuse me a bit to be honest. As I’ve mentioned before, they seem to tapering off a bit. Then again they weren’t that bad last week in patches and are very capable of getting this done but they have 5 big name players out this week so … Tigers by 4.

Titans vs. Panthers @ Cbus
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: The Titans are playing fairly decent footy at the moment but can they step it up another level to cause an upset here? The Panthers just keep rolling along, rarely get into “panic mode” and just grind their opposition down. I don’t expect things to change too much this week … Panthers by 16.

Dragons vs. Storm @ WIN
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The Dragons are sitting second last for a reason and I can’t see them causing many problems for the Storm Saturday night. The Storm were ruthless last week against the Raiders (48-2) and if they bring just half that effort this week they win easy.

Knights vs. Rabbitohs @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: The Knights and Rabbitohs were both impressive in their wins last week but just remember they beat sides currently sitting 15th and 16th. How do you assess that form-wise? Sheesh! This is a tough one, both sides have valid reasons for winning this game. The smart move would be to go with the team that are at home and who have won 6 in a row but … Rabbitohs by 4.

Raiders vs. Bulldogs @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: The Raiders were garbage last week. OK, it was against the Storm but still. They’re the only side in the 8 that have a negative points differential (-120) and I reckon they’re just making up the numbers. The Bulldogs started well against the Knights last week but were hard done by refereeing-wise. Had a bloke sent to the bin and at one stage only had 11 blokes on the field. Can’t do that and expect a good side like the Knights not to score against you. Anyway, as average as both these sides are (yes, I know this is crazy), I’m gonna go against all logic here … Bulldogs by 6.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Nice and mellow with calming effects. Just over 2 mins so you won’t have to waste too much of your time if you have a listen.

https://youtu.be/Nuanwn3v-2I

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Mary S's picture

Hi Newbie,
Yes, the song choice was nice and mellow, which brought back some nice memories - thank you.

On your footy verdicts, I must say after seeing Raiders play (appear) last week, I thought initially that Bulldogs had a really good chance this week of getting a win, until I thought of the choice words Ricky would have had to say to his team after their efforts (or not), and changed my mind. Will be interesting to see!
Cheers😃,
Mary

Mary S's picture

To all tipsters - old & new,

I agree with Newbie - Chop! Chop! Get those fingers tappin’ as comments are not flowing!!

Personally, I find it rather sad (and disrespectful), when I consider the amount of effort The Thinker puts in for us all, that very few have the time to comment these days - about footy or how life is treating them in general.

😞😢
Mary

MGM's picture

Haven't got much to say after my steep fall from grace actually Mary(haha)... I couldn't even get the easy week right (last round).
That's life AND footy !

mark ashford's picture

Hey Newbie
"Aint no sunshine"
Just seems to be what is happening here in AUS at the moment. Yeah the Tildas lost but they did themselves proud to get to where they did.
Thousands home less, women and kids living in cars and we call our selves living in the lucky country. Albo is bringing in thousands of immigrants, where are they going to live, will displace more Aussies.
Enough politics.
Happy to see Payne Hass has resigned after his manager has made a joke of his future. Maybe NRL should look at these managers.
Benji now at the helm of the Tiges, good luck Tigerholic hope it works.

Chook_Dan's picture

Hey thinker,

I missed getting my tips in the form. Missed game 1 but could I tip roosters, warriors, tigers, panthers, storm, knights, raiders.

tigerholic's picture

Afternoon All

Just read a few of the latest comments, it would appear as though there are some of us not pulling their weight(me). I do apologise for that and will try and drop in a bit more as the season closes.

Just wondering if Christine still frequents the site. Have a great weekend of footy, 2 x Night Shifts for me, golf Saturday morning before my first one though.

Me and the Missus are off to Tassie late next week, doing the 3 Capres Track, should be cold and should be some beautiful views.

All the best

Tiger

newbie from perth's picture

@ Baggy - Good luck for tonight buddy! May the best team win 🐓🐓🐓. Experts, bookies and ratings say the Chooks but I have a bad feeling about this…

@ Mr Ashford – I take an unusual interest in US politics (why I’m not sure) and they’re experiencing all those ills you mentioned (and more) but on a much larger scale. Australia is simply mirroring that so I’m “assuming” this sort of thing is happening in most western countries. Not good for either side. All down to the so-called "experts" in charge. Psalm 37:12-20.

OK, lunchtime peeps. Bacon, cheese pie with mashed potatoes, peas and gravy. Boo-Ya!

The Thinker's picture

@Chook_Dan

No trouble at all. I'll add them in.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

@Tigerholic

That walk is on my list. I hope it goes well.

All the best

The Thinker

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