Round twenty four selections

Manly Sea Eagles vs Penrith Panthers – Thursday night – 4 Pines Park

The Panthers have the luxury of naming the same seventeen that made light work of the Storm last week. It's not their best seventeen, but it isn't far from it - Leniu, Tago and Peachey are all expected to return before the finals series. For the Sea Eagles, Keppie returns from a back injury to replace Matt Lodge. Lodge is out for the rest of the season but has likely done enough in a short time to earn himself another contract for next year. These sides last met way back in round six, where the Panthers won 44-12 in a canter. Since then, the Panthers have improved while the Sea Eagles haven't. In the last fortnight, the Panthers have scored 54 points and conceded just 6, and those two games were against the teams running 4th and 6th. If Penrith want the minor premiership they may have to win their last four games to do so. I expect they'll overcome the first hurdle.

BREAKING: The Panthers have just ruled out Jarome Luai and Mitch Kenny for this game. Luke Sommerton comes into the squad to make his NRL debut.

Verdict – Panthers by 14

Result – Panthers 24 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans – Friday night – PointsBet Stadium

I had the Sharks all worked out and then they went and actually played well, and defeated, a top eight team. Now that the boys from the Shire have picked up my sno-globe and given it a good shake I don't know what to believe. Are they any good, or does a Sharks win over the Rabbitohs just prove that the Rabbitohs aren't really a top eight team? A similar performance here should be enough to see off the Titans, particularly playing at Shark Park on a winters night - a miserable place to be unless you're a Sharks fan. Mulitalo returns on the wing for the home team, while Tino Tino Fa'asuamaleaui is back from suspension just in time to replace the suspended Fotuaika. Note that Sam Verrills has been given the rest of the year off to get his shoulder cleaned out and ready for next season. Perhaps that decision gives some insight into how the Titans are feeling about their top eight prospects for the year. 

Verdict – Sharks by 7

Result – Sharks 36 defeated Titans 6

Brisbane Broncos vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – The Gabba

The Broncos are assured of a top four finish this season, which will bring comfort to fans given their late season fade-out in 2022. They will probably retain a spot in the top two, and the minor premiership isn't out of reach. I've been positive on the Broncos prospects this season for quite some time now, but their win over the Cowboys in Townsville last week put to rest one of my lingering doubts - can they win without Adam Reynolds? The answer is clearly yes. They're better when he's there, but it's nice to know they don't need him. Reynolds has been named on Friday, but he may still be a late withdrawal. The Eels kept their top eight prospects alive with a fortunate win over the Dragons. They'll need to be better than that. Even if they are, they still may not be good enough. It's the Broncos last game at The Gabba...perhaps ever. They haven't lost a game there yet, and I don't expect them to lose this.

Verdict – Broncos by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Broncos 54 defeated Eels 10

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – Barlow Park, Cairns

It's not often a player scores four tries in a match. Last week, Mikaele Ravalawa did exactly that, and they still lost. I don't have access to the archives of David Middleton, but I'd be surprised if that has ever happened before. Mind you, we have since learned that the Dragons shouldn't have lost that game. In fact, there were three games last weekend where the results would have been different had referees not made errors. In each case those decisions went against teams that are struggling at the bottom of the ladder. Frustrating for the coaches I'm sure. The Bunnies continue their epic road trip with a home game in Cairns. They aren't back in Sydney until the final round of the season. If they don't turn things around soon they may have to win that game to make the top eight. I don't want to get too far ahead of myself here, but that game is against the Chooks. That game may very well determine which of the two heritage teams in the NRL make the finals this season. Crikers. As for this clash, the Bunnies did enough to beat the Tigers recently, and I think they can do enough here too. An upset wouldn't surprise me, but I can't quite tip that way.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Rabbitohs 26 defeated Dragons 14

Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – FMG Stadium, Waikato, Hamilton

It's a Tigers home game but it won't feel like it. This game sold out in next to no time and the enthusiasm for the Warriors in New Zealand is palpable. It's unlikely they would drop out of the top four, but a win here guarantees them of their best regular season finish in a very long time. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad is out following a concussion. Taine Tuaupiki gets another opportunity at the top level - he's a genuine talent, and I've popped a highlights video on the page for those who haven't seen much of him. The Tigers were one of those teams unlucky to lose last week. They have to win some games to avoid the wooden spoon, so I expect they'll give this their all, but this is hard. Up the Wahs!

Verdict – Warriors by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Warriors 30 defeated Tigers 22

Sydney Roosters vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

This is just the second visit to Sydney for the Dolphins in 2023. Unfortunately, the only other time they were there they conceded 58 points to Manly in what was their worst result for the season. I doubt the Roosters can score 58 points - they haven't come close to that all year, but I do think they'll get the job done. For those of you that like weird bets - you can get $10 about Joey Manu scoring two or more tries in this game. I like that - I think he's ready for a big night out. I'm proud of the mighty Dolphins, but a long and emotional season looks like it's taking its toll. 

Verdict – Roosters by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Roosters 30 defeated Dolphins 14

Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park

The Raiders have won 12 games this season, and their biggest winning margin is 10. On nine occasions they have won games by a converted try or less. Now, let's give them some credit for their capacity to win the tight contests, because that's an important quality to have. But it does make for a very long season when you have to fight and graft your way to a win every single week. It's also why their points differential could potentially cost them big time. They are the only team in the top ten that have conceded more points than they have scored, and in a tight competition that's the sort of thing that could see you death spiralling out of the top eight in a hurry. This won't be easy, and they have a few difficult games in front of them to see out the year. They do have an impressive record over the Storm in Melbourne, and not many teams can say that, but the Storm need to shore up a top four finish, and we've seen them regularly bounce back after a heavy loss. Note that a whole bunch of the Storm squad took it upon themselves to fly up to the Sunshine Coast and watch Ryan Papenhuyzen running out for the Falcons in his return from injury. What a club.

Verdict – Storm by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 48 defeated Raiders 2

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

The Knights have won five of their last six, and their only loss was a competitive effort against the Panthers. That sequence of wins includes a 66-0 thrashing of the Bulldogs in round 18. I'm sure the Bulldogs won't want a repeat of that, but it's hard to see them changing the result, particularly on a Sunday afternoon in Newcastle.

Verdict – Knights by 16

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 42 defeated Bulldogs 6

Wally Lewis - round twenty four selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Sea Eagles vs PANTHERS
  • SHARKS vs Titans
  • BRONCOS vs Eels
  • RABBITOHS vs Dragons
  • Tigers vs WARRIORS
  • ROOSTERS vs Dolphins
  • STORM vs Raiders
  • KNIGHTS vs Bulldogs

Taine Tuaupiki - Hostplus Cup Highlights

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 23.

Plenty of solid scores from our tipsters, but only one of us got 8 from 8 - congrats to Buzz105...outstanding work there.

If anyone notices any issues with the scores just let me know.

I'll have my previews and tips for round 24 published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Buzz105's picture

I think I need a few more perfect rounds to make my overall score look respectable after forgetting to put my tips in, in week 15 :)

Mike T's picture

I missed on round 4, would have scored 6 wins, ??!&%, bugger.
Lets see how we go from here against each other. You are 1 in front of me, a mini challenge?

Buzz105's picture

Sounds Good to me Mike T :)

I think from memory with round 15, I think I would have only got 4 or 5

Mary S's picture

Taine Tuaupiki - a very speedy & agile player. Enjoyed the video.

Cheers,
Mary

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

What a shame the Princess (Jarome Luai) won’t be playing Thursday night. The match will be robbed of seeing a true superstar of the game not playing. Heartbreaking news indeed 😰 . Oh and just in case you weren’t aware, I’m being sarcastic here 🥱. One last thing … where the hell have all the comments gone? Someone put a hex on you guys? Ah, I remember the days when we’d get minimum 50-60 every week. Maybe someone should reach out to Coach Potato to liven things up a bit 🤔. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye = Cowboys

Manly vs. Panthers @ Brookvale
Probability @ 20-80
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: Manly only got back into the contest last week against the Roosters after Nathan Brown was sent off. Up until then they didn’t show much and this week they have to front up to a side that (very) easily dismissed the Storm. I’m thinking the juggernaut keeps rolling on … Panthers by 18.

Sharks vs. Titans @ The Bermuda Triangle (Shark Park)
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Verdict: The Sharks bounced back last week against the Rabbitohs (as they should have) and finally looked impressive. The Titans did well (with a man down for just over half the game) against the Warriors so credit where credit’s due. They’ll have a hard one here providing the Sharks can maintain the form from last week. The Titans are not in the 8 so … Sharks by 10.

Broncos vs. Eels @ The Gabba
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: The Broncos flexed their muscles last week against a very worthy Cowboys and will be full of confidence. The Eels made hard work of beating the Dragons by just 6 points and that effort might not be enough this week. I’ve got a feeling the Broncos will be too slick but then again, you never know … Broncos by 10.

Rabbitohs vs. Dragons @ Barlow Park (Cairns)
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: I was surprised and disappointed by what the Rabbitohs dished up last week. At one stage earlier in the year I felt they were a genuine chance of winning the GF but not after what I’ve seen over the last few weeks. They’re better than that and need to get into gear and fast. The Dragons could’ve won that game last week against the Eels but somehow managed to throw it away. One side here is due for the bounce-back and is classier than the other … Rabbitohs by 12.

Tigers vs. Warriors @ FMG Stadium (Waikato, NZ)
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: A “home game” for the Tigers in NZ? Umm, OK. The Tigers weren’t all that bad last week against the Raiders I reckon. There’s definite improvement on the horizon so watch this space in a year or two. The Warriors are a tougher proposition however. Even though the Warriors weren’t at their best last week, a win is a win and they’ll have the crowd behind them which should help. With or without CNK, they’ll be too good here … Warriors by 16.

Roosters vs. Dolphins @ Allianz
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: As good as the Roosters were last week against Manly, there’s still a ton of work they need to do. I was gladdened with their defensive attitude after Brown got sent off (still not sure if it was warranted though). The Dolphins really took it up to the Knights last week and some may argue they could’ve (should’ve) won that one. It was a good effort nevertheless. The Dolphins beat the Roosters in Round 1 but that was a long time ago and things have levelled out for them … Roosters by 8. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Storm vs. Raiders @ AAMI
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The Storm got ambushed last week and were given a lesson by the Panthers. No doubt that hurt and they will (should be) fired up for this one. The Raiders were not all that convincing last week and will have to face an opponent looking for redemption and who are vastly superior to the Tigers. This may or may not get ugly … Storm by 16.

Knights vs. Bulldogs @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Verdict: The Knights came from behind last week and courtesy of 3 tries in the last 27 minutes or so, managed a good win over the Dolphins. After 5 on the trot, the signs are looking good. The Bulldogs will be nice and fresh after the bye and prior to that they had a win over the Dolphins. I’m still trying to find a reason to give them a chance here. They have a half decent side but the Knights are at home, in form and have more to play for … Knights by 14.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

OMG, this is so “old school” but I thought it was the ducks-nuts back in the day. Well, I still do and hope some of you like it too…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etviGf1uWlg

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

MGM's picture

Hi Thinker,
Speaking of getting good odds , the Sharks gave my snow-globe a rattle as well , by killing my 7-leg multi, which I had boosted quite nicely with some "pick your own lines".... Sportsbet took the sting out a little bit by giving me back a $50 bonus bet , but the snow is still turning to steam as it lands on my sore head !
So disappointed in those Rabbitohs.

The Thinker's picture

@MGM

Ouch.....7 legs and you miss one

No reward for being close - the same thing happens to me when I guess my wedding anniversary date and I get it wrong by a day or two :-)

Good luck this weekend

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

Hi Newbie,
I loved the sacastic comment about the Princess (Jarome Luai) & that he won’t be playing Thursday night.

It means I get a rest from seeing his face on my screen😊, and see him get away with actions that others in the opposing team seem to get pulled up for😒!

You could get the idea that I don't particularly like what I see!!!!

Cheers,
Mary

Mary S's picture

Wonder who is going to upset the applecart this weekend - Bulldogs, Dolphins or Dragons, with their history-making 2 sets of twins playing!!

Cheers to all and sucessful tipping/betting,
Mary

MGM's picture

#Mary
The Dolphins and the Titans for this weeks upsets I reckon, Mary.
You should be careful when looking for the inevitable upset each week though ... it be a "double jeopardy" when you pick the wrong one!
That strategy has seen me tumble rather quickly from top spot down to mid-field!... What started as a Strategy has now become Desperation (haha).

MGM's picture

P.S.
Mary,
I'm with you (and Newbie) on The Princess , just wish The Cheat (aka The Jaw) was sitting on the sideline next to him reminiscing over their schooldays when it was only a mere handful of people that despised them.

MGM's picture

@Thinker
As I scroll up and down the "tips at a glance" I don't think I've ever seen a round (full round of 8 matches)with such unanimity, such a consensus of opinion!
At this stage of the comp, I'm seeing this as an opportunity to peg a couple back (despite what I've just said to Mary), and I've taken the Titans to upset the Sharks and have my Fin up for Wayne to inspire his team to end on a high note with a couple of wins this week and next.

The Thinker's picture

Best of luck, MGM

Neither of those 'upsets' would surprise me that much.

There could be others too - I don't think the Raiders have lost in Melbourne for five years.

Mary S's picture

Hi MGM,
Hope you're wrong about Titans & Dolphins winning this week, as I used my 'Joker" in another comp to increase my points & claw my way to top spot.

I'll know soon enough on the 1st match, but my tips didn't include Titans or Dolphins!!

Cheers,
Mary

MGM's picture

@Mary
Well done girl !
I used to be in a few comps each year and one of them had the Joker option. From memory you get double points for the round you choose to play it, right?
Nowadays I'm just in two ... this one and one that started about 16 years ago between 8 or 9 mates on the northern beaches (Sydney). It's a $50 buy in and we have a barby at the end of the season and the top three get their money.
My best mate (and best man) runs it and he used to enter our tips manually onto a spreadsheet (I ran it for him one year and it was quite a chore!)... Several years ago Tom found a free website that runs all that for him (no charge and very clever!) , and this year our numbers have swelled to 32 from 25 last year. All friends and family and the tradition is that the winner shouts the meat and the first case of beer for the BBQ (and a bottle of red also these days).They also have their name and year written on a Steeden which is running out of blank space and the wooden spoon also changes hands!... I have my name on both and it was consecutive years (haha).
Long Live the Footy !!!

Mary S's picture

@ MGM,
Yes, it's double the points in this comp when the Joker is used, and I think a couple of extra if it's a full card.

I'm hoping that Storm break their losing streak against Raiders (in Melbourne) this afternoon, & Knights come up with the goods, then I'll know if there are additional points! This comp (ITipFooty), is run under my daughter's business name, and yes, ITipFooty.com do all the manual /technical work so it's great.

I did a spreadsheet of all the games from R20, to see what offered me the best option for using the Joker, so this round appeared to give me that option, only 3 others recognised that this was the best round to use their joker too, so I'm currently third.

To some, the idea of a spreadsheet may seem a little "over the top", but I'm closer to 80 than 70, and the mental exercise keeps things moving!!!! There are 3 other comps (including The Thinkers) that I take part in.

Love what you are doing now MGM with your family, mates and your footy comp. It's great to continue friendships, plus have the bonus of friendly(??) rivalry over who looks like winning the footy.

Sounds as if you may need to invest in some new Steedens and wooden spoons, to keep the tradition going.

Have a great day.
Cheers,
Mary

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