St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers – Thursday night – WIN Stadium, Wollongong
The FIFA Womens World Cup made the rookie mistake of scheduling the Matildas first game at the same time as this all-important 16th vs 17th NRL fixture. It will be interesting to see which event captures the eyeballs of the nation. I know...I'm hilarious, but this game will go a long way toward determining which side takes out the dreaded wooden spoon this season, so it is important for these two clubs and the people that support them. The Dragons should be fresh after a bye last week, and a string of key players return for this - Hunt, Bird, Sloan, Liddle. Both teams do have young but very promising fullbacks on show here - neither are perfect but they're kids and need a chance to grow their game. If they keep improving we will be talking about Bula and Sloan for years to come...in a good way. The other thing I wanted to mention is that both these teams are the merged entities in the NRL. Is anyone else old enough to remember all the talk about how merging clubs would make them NRL superpowers? Well, that didn't work. Dragons at home.
Verdict – Dragons by 4
Result – Dragons 18 defeated Tigers 14
New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Friday night – Go Media Stadium, Auckland
These sides met in round 15, so not so long ago. That game was in Canberra and the Warriors absolutely bolted in (36-14). That game was also game number 300 for Jarrod Croker, so the Raiders had everything to play for, and were outplayed. Now they have to travel to Auckland and take them on in front of what I expect will be another sold out game. Other than trying to make amends for what happed in round 15, it's hard to find a reason to believe the Raiders can turn the tables. Note that they have some key returns for this match - namely Papali'i and Horsburgh, but the Warriors have Niukore and Afoa returing on Friday too. I just think the Warriors are too good, and I'm locking them in for a top four finish this season. If you have a look at their draw for the rest of the year, you would understand why.
Verdict – Warriors by 8
Result – Warriors 21 defeated Raiders 20
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – Sunshine Coast Stadium
The Sunshine Coast got pretty lucky jagging this game in the schedule. They get two premiership contenders, good weather, and a raft of big names returning for this contest. For the Broncos, we have Haas, Carrigan and Walsh returning. For the Bunnies, the list reads like a who's who of their best and brightest - Mitchell, Murray, Walker, Cook, Graham, Koloamatangi, Arrow, Sele, Host and Cartwright. It's technically an away game for the Broncos, although they'll have the majority of the support at the ground. Mind you, they've lost just one game away from home all season, so I doubt that's an excuse. With so many team changes for the Bunnies, it may take them some time to get back to their best, and who knows how fit Mitchell will be after a lengthy lay-off. That said, I'm tipping them in what is clearly the match of the round. I can't easily forget when these sides met at Suncorp in round 9, where the Bunnies won in a canter.
Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4
Result – Broncos 36 defeated Rabbitohs 20
Gold Coast Titans vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium
Two teams that won't have given up on a top eight finish just yet, but it's looking highly unlikely from here, and especially so for the loser on Saturday. The Roosters are a warm favourite in this, which surprises me a little, although the Titans have lost three in a row. Losing usually isn't good form, but the results in question are a 4 point loss to the Raiders in Canberra, an unlucky extra-time loss to the Dolphins when the Titans were without their Origin stars, and another unlucky one point loss to the Eels in Sydney. I think that's okay. I can also trust the Titans to score points, which remains an issue for the Roosters. Since round 8 they have scored more than 18 points twice. Those games were against the 14th placed Bulldogs (which they won by a point) and the 15th placed Dragons (which they lost). The Titans are better than that, even without Big Tino.
Verdict – Titans by 4
Result – Roosters 36 defeated Titans 18
Newcastle Knights vs Melbourne Storm – Saturday night – McDonald Jones Stadium
Plenty to play for here. The Knights may need to win this to stay in the hunt for a top eight finish. The Storm may need to win this to stay in the hunt for a top four finish (and they're over-achievers so they are probably aiming for the top two). Note that the Storm have tough games against the Eels, Panthers and Raiders after this, so the coaching staff will be aware of how important these two points could be. No great changes for either side, although Gagai returns in the centres for the Knights. Since round seven the only teams to beat the Storm are the Rabbitohs, Panthers and Cowboys, and that form is looking top shelf right now. The Knights have played the Tigers and the Bulldogs in their last two outings, and they might find the rise in class a bit tough.
Verdict – Storm by 2
Result – Knights 26 defeated Storm 18
North Queensland Cowboys vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
I'll be up in Townsville this weekend, and I'm hoping to get to the Crab Pot on Saturday night for a contest between two very in-form sides. I'm reasonably confident that the home side will prevail in this. The absence of Campbell-Gillard and Sivo definitely helps, but it's also game number 200 for Jake Granville, and he's the sort of player the rest of the Cowboys will want to reward with a win in his milestone match. The Cowboys can also crack the top eight with a win in this, and tip out the Eels in the process.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result – Cowboys 24 defeated Eels 16
Penrith Panthers vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday afternoon – BlueBet Stadium
I'd be surprised if anyone tips the Bulldogs here (although Taka might). Note that the Bulldogs have named Kikau and Addo-Carr on an extended bench. They're not far away, but not likely on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Panthers are welcoming back Cleary, Crichton, Yeo, Martin and To'o. The Panthers lost one game throughout the Origin period of the season, and that loss was to the Cowboys, in extra time. If the Panthers are rusty they'll still win, but if they are in a mood they will win this by 60. Could be a hard watch for Bulldogs fans this one.
Verdict – Panthers by 58
Result – Panthers 44 defeated Bulldogs 18
Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles – Sunday afternoon – PointsBet Stadium
If the Sharks make the top eight this year, and I still think they will, they are the best example of making up the numbers you are ever going to find. Whoever meets them in the first week of the finals series will be happy with the circumstance. I'll tip them here based on their recent record over the Sea Eagles (which is very good) and the Sea Eagles record away from home this season (which is very bad). I'm not particularly confident, but the Sharks do keep beating these sides outside the top eight, and Manly appear to be one of those.
Verdict – Sharks by 4
Result – Sea Eagles 30 defeated Sharks 26
Wally Lewis - round twenty one selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- DRAGONS vs Tigers
- WARRIORS vs Raiders
- Rabbitohs vs BRONCOS
- Titans vs ROOSTERS
- Knights vs STORM
- COWBOYS vs Eels
- PANTHERS vs Bulldogs
- SHARKS vs Sea Eagles
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 20. It's a good thing I don't hand out prizes for perfect scores, because I'd be filing for bankruptcy. I won't be listing all you perfectionists, because I think it's more than half of you, but well done everyone.
Not me though, because I like to think differently (aka: wrong). If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know. I did end up in a kind of zen state and was just punching in sevens repeatedly so an error is possible.
I'll have my tips and previews for round 21 published on Wednesday.
All the best
The Thinker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o7SpmXlyo3A
Submitted by Esra Star on
Hi mate,
It looks like you haven't done Wally's from last week.
Submitted by JKBubble on
Hi Thinker,
My tips (minus the first game i didn't tip) were listed in the comments, they don't seem to be added to my score?
Thanks.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@EsraStar
Thanks for letting me know. I have included Wally's round 19 results now.
@JKBubble
Sorry about that. I will add yours now.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by JKBubble on
Thanks
Submitted by Daniel Jimmy on
Hi team,
This is my first time to join in for Wally Lewis tips for round 21.
Will give feedback after game this weekend
Cheers
Submitted by a on
Hey thinker have you sent me a message about the origin prize yet
Submitted by newbie from perth on
8512121505225182515145 …
Not much chance of me winning the tipping this year 😉 so my new attitude is just to have fun with it. That might explain a few of my selections this week. OK, let’s do this thing …
Bye = Dolphins
Dragons vs. Tigers @ WIN Stadium
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Dragons
Bookies Favourite = Dragons
Verdict: Both these sides have been “pretty average” this year. The Dragons are at home and will be fresh after the bye. The Tigers lost again last week but were competitive for a large chunk of the match. Call me stupid but … Tigers by 6.
Warriors vs. Raiders @ Mt Smart
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Warriors
Verdict: The Warriors were very impressive at home last week when they smashed the Sharks. I think they’ve found their “mojo” and this week they step out against a Raiders side that don’t seem to have that killer instinct and only do enough to get the job done and that doesn’t convince me all that much … Warriors by 8.
Rabbitohs vs. Broncos @ Sunshine Coast
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs
Verdict: So, tell me why the bookies have the Rabbitohs favourites. Is it because they have a stack of guys coming back? That makes sense but the Broncos have a few back as well and they’re a class outfit. This is gonna be a banger hopefully. Again, call me stupid but … Broncos by 4.
Titans vs. Roosters @ Cbus
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Titans
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Verdict: The Titans were very good last week in their narrow loss to the Eels while the Roosters served up much of the same that I’m unfortunately becoming accustomed to this year. How they’re favourites is beyond me. Until they get players back or until they get their act together, I can’t tip ‘em, but always willing to sacrifice the tipping point 🤭 ...Titans by 4.
Knights vs. Storm @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
Verdict: The Knights got the chocolates last week but you gotta remember it was against the Tigers. This one here is another level up and some. The Storm are “rolling in” at the right time of year and should win this semi-comfortably … Storm by 12.
Cowboys vs. Eels @ Townsville
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
Verdict: This is tough to pick and could go either way IMO. The Cowboys are absolutely cruising along at the minute and they’ll be at home. The Eels scraped in by a point last week but they did have some sin-bin issues in that game as we all know. Then again, I expected them to win by more than that one point though. Not sure about this one but … Cowboys by 6.
Panthers vs. Bulldogs @ BlueBet
Probability @ 85-15
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
Verdict: The Panthers got the job done last week against the Dolphins (fairly easy in the end) missing a stack of players but all the “big guns” are back this for this (mis) match and that doesn’t bode well for the Bulldogs. This should be a conclusion that is foregone … Panthers by 24.
Sharks vs. Manly @ Shark Park
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks
Verdict: Given their poor showing last week, I’m not sure the Sharks should be as short in the betting markets as they are. Yeah, they’re at home and will be looking to “bounce back” but they might not find it an easy task given the competitive effort that Manly put up against the Cowboys last week. I reckon the Sea Eagles are good enough to give this one a shake … Manly by 4.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
This one is a sort of tribute to my Irish heritage.
https://youtu.be/jxJf9QKKV-I
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Esra Star on
Pretty much with you on these,mate. Cheers.
Submitted by Chook_Dan on
Hi thinker,
Missed the first game but can I tip cowboys, storm, rabbitohs, roosters, panthers, sharks and warriors.
Submitted by TheScribbleKing on
Hi thinker
Missed putting my tips in
For the rest of the round can I please tip :
Warriors
Rabbitohs
Roosters
Storm
Cowboys
Panthers
Sharks
Thanks
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Come on Footy Chick you have missed the deadline again…..we are missing you insights !!
Submitted by Mary S on
@ The Voyeur
May be like last week, where The Thinker put a note to let us know Footy Chick had emailed tips to him, as she can't visit the website from her work.
As The Thinker is going to be in Townsville for the Cowboys/Eels match, he may not have been able to update yet.
I miss seeing her tips too, as I enjoy seeing what our tipsters are thinking re possible results, as I also tip in other comps too.
Have a good one.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Yes Mary - I agree, but I also like Footy Chicks attitude to tipping. Its never over to the end and she goes very well considering she's been in Wall of Honour several times, also beating me home one season.
But what we reflect on Footy Chick with her tips - Wild Oscar I don't think has posted his tips yet, but may be in the same club with Thinker up Far Nth wrestling crocs or cows.
Whilst here and as much as I've been slightly quiet - congrats to you Miss Mary in taking out The A Game this season and well done.
Best to you and ALL on Thinker site - Big Pete Bx
Submitted by Mary S on
Great to hear from you Big Pete. How are you going these days with your eyes?
Talking about people missing tipping (and there's been a few this round), have you heard anything from Baggy?
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Hello Miss Mary and nice to hear back from you. Going ok or as well as can be expected - got a few things going on and eyes are good with follow-ups. I'm on Facebook if ever you'd like to Message, as some things in this day are more private than the world knowing all of one's business.
Baggy has gone very quiet - even with Eels hitting form and then reversing it. I got on well with him and that's rare for Parra/Manly fans☺
But in case you and others here would like to know - after my employment with NSW Crown (both railways and education) of 52years and 4mths - I've called it a day and now retired as of 30.6.23. Nearing a ripe age of that metric conversion age, some things were telling me otherwise. So I guess with that, we continue to now prop up our medico's bank balances. Had a Minus 6 here on Thursday morning - thought you'd like to know. May you and yours keep well - like I try.
BigPete in Bx Country.
Submitted by Tipper9 on
Yeah I miss footy chicks tips also ... cos they are always correct when they aren't entered on time and I need that sort of help for the tipping comp I'm part of 🤣
Submitted by MGM on
Saturday games don't draw many comments I suppose because they're not free to air but thanks to Telstra and my free subscription to Kayo , I get to watch them all.
The Cows v Eels game has been a perfect sample of the ridiculous contradictions in our games rules.
In the 25th minute Waqa Blake takes out Hiku with a blatant and violent shoulder charge just before Semi Valemei scores his try. A minute after the try is awarded Blake is put on report and the commentators remark that if a try had not been awarded Blake would be in the bin. ... WTF!?
WHY is such a violent and blatant act LESS punishable just because a try was scored ?!!...(and I am an Eels tragic)....WHY?
...
THEN, in the 36th minute V Holmes is sin-binned for another shoulder charge, this time on my boy Mitchell Moses, which had an enormous impact and caused severe whiplash , yet Moses was not taken from the field for an HIA ..?
...
THEN, in the 65th minute Ryan Matterson is put on report (by the bunker after the event) for a hip-drop on L Leilua that happened RIGHT in front of the Ref (and he was SCREAMING in pain Right In Front of Him) and once again there's no binning because it's AFTER the event ... SO F#K#NG WHAT !?
Hip Drops are not Sinister ANY MORE ?
RIGHT in FRONT of YOU with a man SCREAMING in PAIN ??!!!
...
What enrages me so is that these things are NOT hard to get right!
...
To all NRL officials I can't do better than to Quote Tim Sheens...
...
" You guys are paid to run Professional Football and THAT'S what you've gotta do.... It's you're living, and if you want to MAKE a decent living, then you have to do better than THAT !!!!!!!! " ..unquote !
Submitted by Esra Star on
Can someone go and check the dressing sheds! The Sharks are still in there and the game started 30 minutes ago!
Submitted by Steel Panther on
Hey Big Pete...it was a nervous finish for your team but they hung on for the W a bit like the Warriors on Friday night.
Good to see you are still around and making the odd comment. Very quiet on Thinker's site these days.
Congrats on retiring. A pretty good effort to give 52 years service. I have been in my job for 41 years. Only one I've had but really want to retire now as I'm fed up but still a few years to go before I get the Government pension.
Pity you weren't in Sydney as heading over there the weekend after next to catch up with an old school mate. Hope to take in the Roosters Manly game on Thursday night plus a couple of the women's football matches.
Take care mate & enjoy retirement.
SP
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
As you can see I haven't updated the NRL ladder and tipping comp after round 21. Apologies for the delay. I've just returned home from a late flight and won't have time to get to this until tonight.
Until then
The Thinker