Round twenty three selections

Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles – Thursday night – Sydney Cricket Ground

14th plays 10th, and while both teams will publicly say they can still make the top eight, I expect they would be having doubts privately. The Roosters would need to win everything from here and they do have a reasonable run home, but even then they need the results of six teams above them going their way. It's over. I can't quite say that about the Sea Eagles whose last two games of the year are against the Bulldogs and Tigers, but they have a few significant hurdles before that (Panthers, Warriors), and they may have to win one of those games to get there. The Chooks need to find the attack they discovered against the Titans two weeks ago, but at least they know they have it in them...somewhere, and there record at the cricket ground is still solid. They couldn't trouble the Broncos last week, but clearly this is easier. Note that these sides met recently (round 18) where the Sea Eagles prevailed at home in a tight low-scoring contest. Home side advantage and the ominous sense of 'now or never' has me siding with the Chooks on this occasion.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Result – Roosters 26 defeated Sea Eagles 16

Gold Coast Titans vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – CBus Super Stadium

The Titans kept their finals hopes alive with a surprise win over the Cowboys on Sunday - I think it was one of their best performances all year. If they can maintain that level they would probably win this too. The Warriors will be nice and fresh after a week off. In their two previous outings following the bye rounds the Warriors lost narrowly to the Broncos in round 13 and then absolutely flogged the Dragons in round 17. More importantly though, the Warriors recent results are first rate. In their last three games they have scored 111 points and conceded just 42. That's solid enough, but all the more impressive given their opponents in those three games were all in the top eight. The trip to Australia shouldn't worry the Warriors too much either - they've won 6 of 9 games here this season, and I expect they'll have a few fans on the Gold Coast to cheer them on in this.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result – Warriors 28 defeated Titans 18

Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm – Friday night – BlueBet Stadium

This is quite the opportunity for the Melbourne Storm - they can make a real statement about their premiership prospects if they give this game a shake. This could also be a precursor to week one of the finals, which could see a repeat of this game at this venue if current ladder positions hold. We have a handy and recent guide to this contest from round 18, when these sides met in Melbourne. In that contest the Storm jumped out to a 12-0 lead, only for the Panthers to win quite comfortably in the end (34-16). What makes that Panthers win all the more impressive is that they did it without Nathan Cleary. At home, the Panthers have lost just one game this season, and that was to the Broncos by a point. They're a much better side now than they were at the start of the season. Perhaps the Panthers are the team that can make a real statement about premiership prospects on Friday night. A shout out to Ryan Papenhuyzen, who makes his long-awaited return (in Queensland) from a patella injury that couldn't be any worse. I wish him well, and I wish the Ipswich Jets well, who have to take on a Sunshine Coast line-up that also includes Justim Olam.

Verdict – Panthers by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 26 defeated Storm 6

North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday afternoon – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

This loomed as the game of round 23, until the Cowboys run of wins hit a speed bump last weekend. It's taken some of the gloss off what will still be quite the event up in Townsville on Saturday. The suspension of Valentine Holmes shakes things up quite a bit too. I assume Chad Townsend takes over as goal kicker, but the replacement centre has me scratching my giant head. Perhaps it's Brendan Elliot, or they shift a winger and bring back Kyle Feldt. Wait and see on that one. These sides met back in round two where the Broncos won fairly comfortably (28-16). The Cowboys have improved since then, but the Broncos have shown no sign than their season is going to taper off like it did in 2022. Much of that has to do with Adam Reynolds, whose leadership and sensible decision-making stops the Broncos turning into a pack of confused pelicans. They might even win a minor premiership this season, and the last time they did that their coach was playing in the halves. An unusual timeslot (3pm) for such an important game - blink and you'll miss what could be one of the games of the year.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Broncos 30 defeated Cowboys 14

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights  – Saturday night – Optus Stadium, Perth

I think most of us expected the Dolphins to struggle toward the end of the season, and we are seeing that play out now. It doesn't mean their inaugural season in the NRL hasn't been a success, but it does show how hard it is to pull a squad together in a short space of time. In other sporting competitions, new teams are often given significant advantages to get up to speed as soon as possible. The Dolphins were given sweet nothing by the NRL, and had to stand on their own fins. They'll be a finals force in next to no time, you can all be sure of that, but they'll struggle on Saturday night against the Knights in Perth, you can all be sure of that too. A round of applause for Kalyn Ponga while I'm here. Many of us (including me) feared we may never see him play NRL again, but here he is, one of the form players in the competition.

Verdict – Knights by 16

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 30 defeated Dolphins 28

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – Optus Stadium, Perth

The Bunnies must have had a whole bunch of flight credits that were due to expire. It's the only explanation for the extraordinary national tour they are currently enduring as we approach the business end of the season. For those unaware, prior to this trip to Perth the Bunnies have played games in Auckland, Sydney, Sunshine Coast and Tamworth. After the Perth game, they have matches in Cairns and Newcastle. For a Sydney-based team, that's an enormous amount of travel, particularly for a team that carried a heavy Origin representative burden this year. They're up against the Sharks here, who are on equal points with the Bunnies but look like the team that will drop out of the top eight. Their only recent wins have been against the Tigers, Dragons and Bulldogs, and they won't be playing those teams again this season. While warming up, these teams will probably watch the Knights go past them on the ladder in the first game in Perth. Unless there's a draw, only one of these teams can leapfrog them again.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Sharks 26 defeated Rabbitohs 16

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

The suspension of Dylan Brown didn't de-rail the Eels season, but it clearly hasn't helped. He's back this week as the Eels try to squirm their way back into the top eight. A win here is an absolute must, because they have games against the Panthers and the Broncos ahead of them. I don't think they can do it, but it probably doesn't matter what I think. It's more important that the Eels think they can. They should be too good here, particularly with the suspened de Belin excluded from the Dragons list.

Verdict – Eels by 16

​​​​​​​Result – Eels 26 defeated Dragons 20

Canberra Raiders vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

A scare for the Raiders last week, and with their troublesome points differential this is one team that call down the ladder quickly if they lose a few in a row. They have a few winnable games in the draw, so they should sneak through, but a loss will have Ricky biting his nails and racking up fines at the post-game press conference. Just about everyone has pencilled the Tigers in for the wooden spoon this season, bu I wouldn't rush to that conclusion. They'll need to win two more games this year to avoid that fate, but I think that's entirely possible. The Sunday games are a bit ordinary this round, but the Tigers might surprise a few with a competitive effort in this. I can't quite tip them, but I think they'll go close.

Verdict – Raiders by 1

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 22 defeated Tigers 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • ROOSTERS vs Sea Eagles
  • Titans vs WARRIORS
  • PANTHERS vs Storm
  • Cowboys vs BRONCOS
  • Dolphins vs KNIGHTS
  • RABBITOHS vs Sharks
  • EELS vs Dragons
  • RAIDERS vs Tigers

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 22.

If you scored 5 from 8 on the weekend you had plenty of company - that was just about all of us, but for a few exceptions. The Knights, Bulldogs and Titans were the hardest winners to find for most of us.

Congrats to No_worries_NZ who was the only tipters to find 7 from 8 - outstanding work there.

If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know. I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

A special shout out to our favourite tipster - Wally Lewis - who has gone public with his personal battle with CTE. An absolute champion on and off the field. You can watch his story here (support acts are Def Leppard and Motley Crue):

https://www.9now.com.au/60-minutes/2023/episode-26

Pima Riben Yapa's picture

Correct statement for your time

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

We have a double-header once again in Perth this weekend but I won’t be going. I’ve got something on Saturday and after that I’d end up missing most of the Dolphins & Knights game. Seeing as the Rabbitohs & Sharks game is on free-to-air I thought I may as well just curl up on the lounge and watch it on the box. Would’ve been a different story if the Mighty Roosters were playing though 🐔 😍. Maybe one day …

Speaking of the Roosters, I’m interested to see the reception the boys give Matt Lodge on Thursday night. Knowing the class that exudes from the Roosters, everything should be fine. Then again, what happens when JWH runs straight into/at Lodgy? Will they both try and be the “alpha” or just good mates? Looking forward to it 💥 💪.

After reading the Boss’ tips it turns I’ve tipped the same. Doesn’t happen very often so hoping it’s our turn to get a perfect score. Then again, lots of others will be tipping along the same lines so yeah … OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye = Bulldogs

Roosters vs. Manly @ SCG
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: The Roosters are playing terrible footy this year. They’ve shown a glimmer of hope in the last 2 weeks but are well below expectations. Manly have won 2 of their last 3 and seem to have more ability and endeavour than the Roosters. I realise they’re up against it but … Roosters by 4. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Titans vs. Warriors @ Cbus
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

Verdict: The Titans were very impressive last week but I’m wondering why it took them until the second half to really get moving and if the Cowboys were “switched on” enough. The Warriors beat some quality sides in their last 3 games (Eels, Sharks & Raiders) and will be nice and fresh after the bye last week. Theoretically this should be a win for … Warriors by 6.

Panthers vs. Storm @ BlueBet
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: This should be a cracker. Both sides had commanding wins last week but on the face of it I can see the Panthers’ defence being the difference here. The Panthers just seem to get better each week and the Storm usually ramp it up when they get to this stage of the year but … Panthers by 8.

Cowboys vs. Broncos @ Townsville
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: I have a feeling the Cowboys were not switched on last week in their loss to the Titans. On paper the win was a given so what else could it have been? Maybe it was the “loss they had to have” as the finals draw nearer. The Broncos have been playing some decent footy of late and are very slick. Their ladder position and points differential is proof of that. No doubt there will be a “bounce-back” of sorts from the Cowboys on Saturday afternoon and we all know they’re hard to beat at home but … Broncos by 6.

Dolphins vs. Knights @ Optus Stadium (Perth)
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

Verdict: I can’t quite believe the Dolphins lost to the Bulldogs last week. It was a disappointing effort and I’m wondering if the bubble has burst. They will definitely have their hands full this week in Perth. The Knights are on a roll, winning their last 4 on the trot. OK, two of those were against the Bulldogs and the Tigers but the last two were against the Storm and the Raiders. That form is good enough for me … Knights by 10.

Rabbitohs vs. Sharks @ Optus Stadium (Perth)
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: Both sides are clinging inside the top 8 by the thinnest of threads. The Rabbitohs haven’t been setting the world on fire but they still have a classy side capable of inflicting severe damage if they get their act together. The Sharks however, seem to have lost the plot. Kennedy’s out and the “top 8” curse could possibly rear its ugly head again this week. They look a little fragile to me. I have a feeling something extraordinary might happen in this one … Rabbitohs by 16.

Eels vs. Dragons @ CommBank
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Verdict: I thought the Eels’ effort last week against the Storm was lacking in intensity and some of them didn’t look too interested. Dylan Brown is back so that may have an impact, not sure. They need to lift if they want to win this one. Mind you, they don’t have to lift too much as the Dragons continue to disappoint. With Jack de Belin out suspended it might be even harder for the Dragons to cause an upset but “never say never” in this wonderful game. At home I’m expecting a bounce-back so … Eels by 12.

Raiders vs. Tigers @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: The Raiders were pretty ordinary (got severely smacked) last week against the Knights so a “bounce-back” should be on the cards here. Even if they make the finals, I reckon they’ll just be making up the numbers based on last week’s effort. The Tigers are really struggling this year (just like my boys are) and even though they’re up against a side who are also struggling, albeit to a lesser degree, they’ll find it hard to get up in this one. I give them an outside chance on Sunday but I just don’t think they have the class here so … Raiders by 12.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Another one of those “first reaction” videos… this time from one of the best (and I mean the best) albums ever made. The lyrics are poignant and really hit home.

https://youtu.be/3HM5zCqmcfg

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Elaine Slapp's picture

Hi Thinker

I am having trouble logging in today. Can you please update my tips for round 23 -
Roosters
Warriors
Panthers
Broncos
Knights
Rabbitohs
Eels raiders

Thank you Lochnesslaine

The Thinker's picture

@Lochnesslaine

Will do

All the best

The Thinker

Roy Budby's picture

Am thinking of betting NRL round 24 2023.

The latest in NRL news