Round twenty two selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters – Thursday night – The Gabba

I'm not sure what Tedesco was smoking when he sneaked off to Byron Bay recently, but it's improved his football. A rare win for the Chooks last week, and a dominant win at that, means their finals prospects aren't entirely extinguished. The Broncos lost their goose-stepping prop forward to suspension following their win over the Bunnies, but the return of Thomas Flegler more than makes up for it. Arthars is also suspended, and will be replaced on the wing by the ridiculously talented Deine Mariner. The Chooks welcome back Victor Radley this week, whose inclusion could be a blessing for either team. Just depends on Victor really. The Roosters have a very strong record against the Broncos in recent years, but they haven't played the Broncos this season, and the Broncos this season are a very different proposition. They are all but guaranteed a top four finish, but top two would be so much better. If they finish third or fourth they will need to travel in week one of the finals, and their opponent is likely to be the Panthers, Warriors or Storm. That's a prospect you really want to dodge.

Verdict – Broncos by 8

Result – Broncos 32 defeated Roosters 10

Wests Tigers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Scully Park, Tamworth

The Rabbitohs were a bit ordinary last week, and they've been a bit ordinary for a month. The outier was the dominant win over the Warriors in Auckland, but that game was played on, in, or under water, depending on the intensity of the rainfall at the time. In recent games on dry land, they've conceded 36 points to the Dragons, 31 points to the Cowboys, 36 points to the Bulldogs and 36 points to the Broncos. Notably the Broncos had players sent to the sin bin twice. They're leaking points, and they're leaked points to teams that aren't travelling any better than the Tigers. Latrell Mitchell is probably back on Friday...probably. There was talk he would be fit and ready to play the second Origin game in mid-June, so who really knows. Even if he does play, he's likely to need the run. They find themselves outside the top eight, surrounded by teams in better form. They're clearly capable of getting on a run and scaring the pants off everyone, but they need to sort themselves out...and fast. Luke Brooks returns for the Tigers which helps, but the side that racked up 66 points over the Cowboys haven't won a game since. They need to win some games to drag themselves off the foot of the ladder, and they have no easy games left. I give them a sneaky chance in this, but I can't tip them in good faith.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

Result – Rabbitohs 32 defeated Tigers 18

Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Marvel Stadium

A difficult period for the Eels, backing up from the road trip to Townsville with a road trip to Melbourne. They also have a road trip to Brisbane in a fortnight, so this next month can make or break their season campaign. The Storm hang on to a top four spot, but they would be watching the Raiders and the Cowboys out of the corner of their eyes. Normally, you'd back the Storm every time under these circumstances - back at home after a difficult loss on the road and a fair spray from the coach. I'm breaking my own rules and tipping against them here, primarily because of the troops they have lost for this game - Asofa-Solomona, Sims, Olam and Smith. That's two big bodies in the middle, and both centres. I expect Moses and Gutherson will steer plenty of attack at the new centre pairing of Seve and Tonumaipea, and the Eels centre pairing of Penisini and Simonnson know how to find the line. That could prove the difference in the end. There's plenty of games of interest this round, and this could be the most interesting of all.

Verdict – Eels by 1

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 46 defeated Eels 16

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The Raiders are on the cusp of the top four but, incredibly, are the only team in the top ten with a negative points differential. More incredibly, the 14th placed Titans have a better for and against than the 5th placed Raiders. In a contested competition it's the sort of thing that could cost the Raiders during the finals. That said, their run home is quite favourable, and dropping out of the top eight from here looks unlikely. The Knights are looking like one of those teams that deserve a top eight finish on recent form, but for one glaring issue. Their record away from home this season is poor to middling. Their only wins away from Newcastle were over the bottom two teams. For that reason alone I'm tipping the Raiders, but I expect this will be a genuine contest.

Verdict – Raiders by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 28 defeated Raiders 6

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday night – WIN Stadium, Wollongong

Both sides are coming off victories, but the Dragons four point win over the last-placed Tigers isn't as impressive as a four point win over the Sharks (and I admit I'm always knocking the Sharks). Manly can still make the top eight this season - it won't be easy, but their run home includes games over the bottom three teams. Of course they'll need to win this along the way, but I think they well - with Daly Cherry-Evans knocking up game number 300 (and all with the same club), it's hard to imagine them stumbling here. For those that like trivia, I'll add a list of players that racked up 300 games with one club in the comments.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Sea Eagles 24 defeated Dragons 18

Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – BlueBet Stadium

Several times this season I've pointed out that the Sharks can't beat the teams in the top eight, and they still can't. With that in mind, they're not much chance of beating the premiership favourite, and even less chance of doing it in Penrith. The Sharks have to play top eight teams in three of their last six games, plus games against the teams currently 9th and 10th. If any team drops out of the top eight from here, it's likely to be the Sharks.

Verdict – Panthers by 16

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 28 defeated Sharks 0

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Sunday afternoon – Salter Oval, Bundaberg

A home game for the Bulldogs in name only as this is the game they take to Bundaberg - you'd expect the Dolphins would get most of the local support. The Dolphins are a warm favourite, but some key returns for the Bulldogs has me thinking they can jag a win here - Kikau, Addo-Carr, Sexton, Preston and Burns are back. Handy inclusions each and every one of them. For the Dolphins, Tabuai-Fidow returns to the fullback role with the return of Nui on the wing - Te Whare (the biggest winger in the world) moves back into the centres. Marshall-King is also back for the Dolphins, and the Dolphins are a much better side when he's there. I'll take the Dogs in something of an upset.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Bulldogs 23 defeated Dolphins 22

Gold Coast Titans vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium

The Cowboys have lost two key forwards for this match (Nanai and Neame), but such is the strength of their pack, Taumalolo is still starting off the bench. They've now won six in a row and I doubt the Titans will give them much to fear, particularly with Tino Fa'asuamaleaui unavailable for now.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

​​​​​​​Result – Titans 22 defeated Cowboys 13

Wally Lewis - round twenty two selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • BRONCOS vs Roosters
  • Tigers vs RABBITOHS
  • STORM vs Eels
  • RAIDERS vs Knights
  • Dragons vs SEA EAGLES
  • PANTHERS vs Sharks
  • Bulldogs vs DOLPHINS
  • Titans vs COWBOYS

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans,

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round twenty one. A few surprise results meant that our top score for the round was 6 from 8. There were quite a lot of you that managed six, so I won't list you all. If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know. I stuffed a few up there at one point and had to go back and start again. Hopefully I sorted them all out, but if not, you know what to do.

I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Rocket Ryan's picture

Thinker can you check my score last round need all points I can

Rocket Ryan's picture

Might be right threw me with the six top comment

The Thinker's picture

@Rocket Ryan

Sorry about that Rocket.

Correction - our top scorer for the round was Rocket Ryan with 7 from 8. It's been a solid fortnight from Rocket (14 from 15).

All the best

The Thinker

tigerholic's picture

Thinker

Please don't praise Rocket Ryan too much, he will only get carried away.

Tiger

Mary S's picture

It's OK Tiger, Rocket is sharing that honour with Wild Oscar, who has also achieved 14/15 over the two weeks. Well done Wild Oscar!!

Hope things are looking up for you now Tiger, and the issues you were having, have been (or are being) addressed. Take care.

Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Tigerholic

Good point sir. I'll try and keep it to a minimum :-)

I hope things are okay with you and your crew

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

Daly Cherry-Evans joins a rare club this weekend - players that play 300 games with one club. He's the second person to do so this season. Here's the full list:

* Cameron Smith - 430

* Paul Gallen - 348

* John Sutton - 336

* Nathan Hindmarsh - 330

* Andrew Ettingshausen - 328

* Cooper Cronk - 323

* Billy Slater - 319

* Jason Croker - 318

* Hazem El Masri - 317

* Cliff Lyons - 309

* Mitch Aubusson - 306

* Jarrod Croker - 304 (and counting)

* Anthony Minichiello - 302

* Simon Mannering - 301

Footy chick's picture

Sorry everyone. I will try and put my tips in earlier from now on.
xx

newbie from perth's picture

8512121505225182515145 …

The “highs and lows” of footy eh? I was on a “high” last week when the Roosters finally clicked in that first half against the Titans. Ah, the sweet, sweet memories that brought back 💪. Then everything flipped and I was on a “low” when I remembered who we’re playing this week 😱. The Universe can be cruel sometimes. Not getting carried away just yet with that win last week but I’ll keep telling myself the signs are there. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bye = Warriors

Broncos vs. Roosters @ The Gabba
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: The Broncos put away a very good side last week and the Roosters found a bit of (first half) form to record a much needed win. Unfortunately for the Roosters, their new found sparkle might not be enough against a red hot Broncos playing in front of a Brisbane “home” crowd. I’m hoping for an upset but … Broncos by 10.

Tigers vs. Rabbitohs @ Scully Park (Tamworth)
Probability @ 15-85
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: The Rabbitohs were lacklustre in the second half last week against the Broncos and will be itching to make amends against the bottom side this week. The Tigers were (sorta) OK last week but not being able to get it done when they were very capable of getting it done (against a fellow struggler) suggests to me that one of their “away from Sydney upsets” won’t be repeated here … Rabbitohs by 16.

Storm vs. Eels @ Marvel Stadium
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The Storm got rolled by the Knights last week in a huge upset and pretty sure Bellyache would’ve got right up ‘em in preparation for this one. Their embarrassment with that loss would be off the scale (no offence to the Knights though). Unfortunately the Eels will take the brunt of the Storm’s “bounce back” and will find it a big ask to hold them off. I don’t think the Eels have quite the same amount of ability compared to the Storm at the moment anyway … Storm by 8.

Raiders vs. Knights @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 55-45
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Raiders

Verdict: I don’t think the Raiders showed enough last week against the Warriors. Well, except for the last couple of minutes in regular time that is. They’re gonna have their hands full in this match one would assume. Yes, the Knights played very good footy in their upset win over the Storm but can they replicate it and can they get it done away from home. They’re the questions that have my tiny brain confused. The Knights are capable of winning this given their form of late and you’d be ill-advised to write them off in this one. Not sure but … Knights by 4.

Dragons vs. Manly @ WIN Stadium
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly

Verdict: The Dragons won last week against the bottom side but for large chunks of that game they weren’t convincing at all. This week they’re at home again but their opponents are a much tougher proposition. Manly were terrific last week against the Sharks but in the end they were absolutely gassed and did well to hold off the Sharks for a morale boosting win. I really liked how they went about it so … Manly by 8.

Panthers vs. Sharks @ BlueBet
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: The Panthers trounced the Bulldogs last week as most would’ve expected. This week they have the Sharks at home and another win looks on the cards. The Sharks were well below par last week and would’ve lost by more had Manly not been so gassed. They had all the running in that second half and should’ve won but they couldn’t get it done. Given the Sharks’ inability to put away top 8 teams … Panthers by 12.

Bulldogs vs. Dolphins @ Salter Oval (Bundaberg)
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins

Verdict: What can I say about the Bulldogs? They’ve been disappointing this year when they should be doing better. Last week’s thrashing can be excused (sorta) as it was against the best side in the competition, but still. The Dolphins are a better side and they’re coming off a bye so they’ll be primed. I’m thinking this should be pretty straightforward … Dolphins by 10.

Titans vs. Cowboys @ Cbus
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Verdict: The Titans were poor in the first half last week against a “struggling” Roosters. Their feeble effort in that first half cost them the game. This week they’re up against a Cowboys side that are flying and much better than the Roosters. There’s only one way I see this one panning out … Cowboys by 10.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

In my very humble opinion (and I know some will disagree) this is their best song ever. I was only 6yo when this first came out but I appreciate it a little bit more as each year passes.

https://youtu.be/A4CX4YKvQ2g

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

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