New Zealand Warriors vs Gold Coast Titans – Thursday afternoon – Go Media Stadium
This game pleases me immensely. For too long the Warriors have had to play the ANZAC Day game as the away team, and it makes all the sense in the world that New Zealand gets one on home soil. This will be just the second ANZAC Day game in New Zealand, and the last occasion was nine years ago. The Kiwis aren't taking it lightly either, with 150+ serving personnel involved and a match ball delivery via a New Zealand Air Force helicopter. I'm looking forward to this game more than any other on the weekend, and it's definitely my match of the round. The Titans have been close in the last two weeks, and Des Hasler has stuck with the same lineup that went try for try with the Sea Eagles last week. For the Warriors, Capewell is out with a throat injury and Dylan Walker returns to the seventeen. Through six games the Titans have conceded 28 or more points on five occasions. Clearly they have players that can score points, but sorting out their defensive woes is the key to them claiming a victory. Providing the Warriors don't let the occasion get to them, I fear the Titans defensive woes will continue for at least another week.
Verdict – Warriors by 7
Result – Titans 27 defeated Warriors 24
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Sydney Roosters – Thursday afternoon – Allianz Stadium
The Dragons showed me enough against the Warriors last week to demonstrate they are definitely (maybe) a top eight team this season. They'd need some luck with their roster and a few things to slide their way, but they're close, and they're a lot closer than they've been in years. Zac Lomax has gone from not in the Origin conversation to one of the first players picked - imagine how good he'd be playing if he were happy. No changes to the line-up that impressed me last week. The Roosters find themselves outside the top eight, and it bears some similarities to their 2023 campaign. A few key inclusions on Thursday, with Walker and Young returning to the starting side. The tricolours starting thirteen looks world-class, at least on paper, and I still expect them to get it together at some point. This is exactly the sort of game where that could happen. Be mindful that the Roosters have had a much harder draw up until this point than the Dragons. Competitive losses to the Sea Eagles, Panthers and Storm is solid enough form. Always a fine spectacle this one - and a genuine highlight of the NRL season.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result – Roosters 60 defeated Dragons 18
Melbourne Storm vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Thursday night – AAMI Park
The Storm have been beaten this season, but only once, and that was by the Knights in Newcastle. On that occasion they lost by just two points, and their halves pairing for the game was Pezet and Wishart. Genuine first-graders no doubt, but they'll be the first to admit they aren't Hughes and Munster. They've won every other game and they've all been close, which is a testament to how competitive they are. Those wins have included victories over the Panthers, Broncos, Warriors and Roosters - all genuine opponents there. The first two are our 2023 grand finalists, and the other two have already beaten the Rabbitohs 34-4 and 48-6. If I haven't already convinced you, this is the traditional ANZAC Day game for the Storm, albeit against a new opponent. The ANZAC Day clash is a game the Storm usually win (including their last seven), and often win by a hefty margin. Still need convincing? The Rabbitohs have played 18 times in Melbourne, and never won. Yikes.
Verdict – Storm by 10
Result – Storm 54 defeated Rabbitohs 20
Manly Sea Eagles vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – 4 Pines Parks
The Eels have had a week to recover from the road trip to Darwin, where a Dolphins side with half its salary cap spend unavailable ran through them like they weren't there. Gutherson is lining up again, although he seems to be struggling to finish every game he starts. He's carried that team for years and it might be taking a toll. They're up against a Manly side that are averaging almost 26 points per game in attack. Manly leaked 30 points to the Titans last week so there defence isn't awesome either, but their best defensive efforts this season have been at the games played at Brookvale. Importantly, those games were against quality opposition in the Panthers and the Roosters. If they can contain those sides, they can manage the Eels. Parramatta fans won't need reminding that the Eels have already beaten Manly in round three this season. They had a bit of luck that day, and I expect the tables will turn this time around. For those with an interest in such things, the total points overs is worth considering.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 8
Result – Sea Eagles 32 defeated Eels 18
Wests Tigers vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Campbelltown Sports Stadium
The good news for Tigers fans is that the Broncos haven't won a game away from home this season. The good news for Broncos fans is that the Tigers have lost their last nine games at Campbelltown. Some big inclusions for the Broncos, with Reynolds, Haas, Mariner and Piakura going straight into the starting thirteen. Note that Mam (finger) and Cobbo (shoulder) are unavailable, so plenty of changes for the away team. All the lineup changes might help the Tigers here, who do have a handy recent record over the Broncos. They also have a lucky charm in their roster this year - Justin Olam has never lost a game to the Broncos...ever. Charming as he is, on form I have to pick the Broncos, who look like one of not many teams that can claim a premiership this season.
Verdict – Broncos by 8
Result – Broncos 34 defeated Tigers 10
North Queensland Cowboys vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Cowboys are conceding more than 32 points per game across their last four outings. For context, that's worse than the Titans who are yet to win a game this year. Despite that, the coach has made the decision to stick solid with the team he has. The only change of any significance is starting with Neame and shuffling Taumalolo back to the bench. It's something...I guess. A more significant change for the Panthers, with Nathan Cleary back from his hamstring injury. The Panthers have been going okay without him, and there's a pretty high chance they'll improve. Edwards has been named at fullback, but that could be worth watching given the way he finished last weekend.
Verdict – Panthers by 14
Result – Panthers 26 defeated Cowboys 20
Redcliffe Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium
Being wrong doesn't usually make me happy, but I was happy to be wrong about the Dolphins last week. The newest team in the NRL are battling the biggest injury list in the competition, and they still made the Eels look second rate last week. Only the Sharks have a better points differential than the Dolphins at this point in the season - perhaps its something in the water. No significant changes for the Dolphins, while the big news out of Newcastle is the injury to Kalyn Ponga. He'll be out for some time, and the Knights have won just 3 of their last 10 games when he hasn't played. The Dolphins do have to recover from the game in Darwin, but they've had two extra days to do so. Phins up!
Verdict – Dolphins by 8
Result – Knights 18 defeated Dolphins 14
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium
On the very day that we should have been celebrating Dale Finucane, team-mate Braydon Trindall put his hand up for goose of the year and stole the limelight. He's been stood down by the club, with more news likely to come. The Raiders lost a key cog in the green machine when Fogarty succumbed to a bicep injury. The current Canberra spine of Stewart, Strange, Weekes and Levi looks like one of the weakest in the NRL. Some promising young talent there no doubt, but far from awesome. The Raiders will find this easier than the Broncos last week, but a win looks unlikely.
Verdict – Sharks by 10
Result – Sharks 40 defeated Raiders 0
Wally Lewis - round eight selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- WARRIORS vs Titans
- Dragons vs ROOSTERS
- STORM vs Rabbitohs
- SEA EAGLES vs Eels
- Tigers vs BRONCOS
- Cowboys vs PANTHERS
- DOLPHINS vs Knights
- Raiders vs SHARKS
Guest tips for this round
See these tips on one page
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I've updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round seven. Some impressive tipping over the weekend - I was impressed with how many of us picked the Bulldogs in their 'upset' win over the Knights. Extra recognition for Fittler sucks and Markate 2021 for their round-topping seven from eight. Outstanding work there.
As always, if anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.
Also note the early start to round eight - with the first game getting underway on ANZAC Day (Thursday) at 2pm.
I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Gummy Sharks on
Apologies Markate. Didn't see that you'd tipped the Roosters and was thinking you were about to tip the round and maybe get a decent payout as well.
Submitted by JKBubble on
Hello Thinker,
thanks for all your work. i'm a little bit confused as on 'round seven selections' i did the same tips as footychick as i still think she's one of the best tipsters. However on the leaderboard her tip is different and the points were different.
Submitted by MGM on
Before we start round 8 can I Please address a couple of issues from round 7 ?
Firstly , What was Kalyn Ponga doing on the field before the kick off for the second half against the Bulldogs ?
In round 6 he struggled through the second half after a kick midway through the first half and grimmacing from a hip injury. I wondered at the time why they would leave him on the field for the next 60 minutes.(the needles at half time were only Masking the injury)
Unsurprisingly, he was back for the start of the match against the Bulldogs this week.
But there's footage of him at half time limping around in the sheds Badly and then limping onto the field for the second half. (apologies to those of you who only see the "free to air matches" but he was limping BADLY)
WTF !!
WHO CARES if he wants to be a hero and insist on continuing , .. WHERE is the duty of CARE?!
HANG your HEAD in SHAME Adam O'Brien ! ... and any so called doctor that's employed by the Knight's as well ... and the independant doctors in the bunker that pull players from the field for Much Less , What's the USE of you ?! You all BANG on about Player Safety and then leave us all to witness THIS!
Kalyn Ponga Would Not be in a moonboot now with a LONG-term Lisfranc injury now if ANY of you had done the right thing (how QUICK was O'Brien to insist that the foot injury was Nothing to Do with the hip-pointer injury..... Wanker !)
I immediately thought , seeing Ponga take to the field for the second half , that , if you had a thoroughbred that you'd spent a couple of $million on in the last three years that was limping and struggling, would you put him in a group one race and hope for the best??
What a bunch of idiots , and that includes Kalyn !
Secondly,
I was amazed to see Reece Walsh (another thoroughbred) take to the field last week in round 6 and was thankful to see him in the specially modified headgear that might give him SOME protection at least.
This too was no doubt on his insistence that he was ready after only three weeks.
His coach is quoted on Foxsports leading up to round 6 .... "There's no risk. We want to keep his Hollywood career intact so there's no risk with that"
"The head gear is just precautionary. It's what he has to wear to play, so he'll wear that".
NO RISK ?
I have had a fractured eye socket myself, and a broken jaw (in a separate incident) and both times it was three months before I nervously got back in the ring. .... a Different sport I hear you protest , but the swinging arm that left Walsh bleeding from the mouth as he ran in for a try in yesterday's match against the Raiders was just the same force as any punch in the ring, could Just as easily have landed on his cheek, (after 4 Weeks , not Months) , and he WASN"T wearing headgear. .... WHY NOT ??..... Because he DIDN'T WANT TO ??
Why Wasn't the headgear COMPULSORY again this week?
Kevin Walters' dismissive comments could so easily have come back to haunt him and he too would now be without his keen thoroughbred.
...But I don't give two sh!ts about either of these coaches ....
It's the wellbeing of these two fine, elite sportsmen that I , and Not enough Others , am concerned about.
Kalyn's now famous quote from last week - "I'm never going to pull myself off " - whilst poorly worded, could easily represent the determination of most 1st grade NRL players.
Until these last couple of weeks I was happy to believe that coaches and clubs could be trusted to prioritize player welfare and longevity over winning matches , but it seems I was just being naive .
So if not the players themselves or the coach or club , then WHO ?
...
Please have a say you guys.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@JKBubble
I've probably made a mistake - was rushing this morning before work.
I'll check it out and let you know.
Thanks for letting me know.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by JKBubble on
All good thinker! Thanks for all your hard work.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@JKBubble
You were right
When I was toggling through I accidentally flicked one of Footy Chicks tips to the other team (Bulldogs over Knights).
I have rectified that now - I have you both scoring 4 from 8.
If that doesn't sound right, just let me know.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
Hi MGM
It worries me too.
And as a Queenslander, I wouldn't want both ruled out of the Origin series. I'm not sure if Ponga was going to get selected, but he definitely won't now.
The players are the most valuable asset the NRL has. I have no idea how valuable Walsh is to the NRL. How do put a figure on it? I'd guesstimate he's worth millions every year to the Broncos, and at least that again to the NRL more broadly. I hope the club doctors put the health of the players first. I expect they do, but the two examples you have raised do make me wonder.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by JKBubble on
Cheers Thinker.
What's your thoughts on the table this year? It's looking very different to years past after 7 rounds.
Im going out on a limb, but i don't think Rabbits, Eels or Knights will be playing finals this year.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@JKBubble
I was surprised to see that the Bunnies were one of the favourites to win the comp this year - I honestly thought their roster would struggle this season, even moreso when they lost Graham for (virtually) the year.
Eels and Knights look like they're going to do it tough too.
We should have a few surprises in the top eight this season - Dolphins, Dragons, Bulldogs. Two or even all three of those sides could end up playing finals this season.
Chooks will probably get themselves together and still make it. You can already lock in the Panthers, Broncos and Storm. A few of the usual suspects and a couple of surprises....happy with that outcome.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
@MGM
I was very surprised to see Kalyn Ponga listed to play in the last round and had to wonder at the apparent stupidity of some.
I agree wholeheartly MGM, re the importance of players welfare in an era of NRL where Safety is now being considered, be it ever so SLOWLY, rather than being totally ignored!!
You only have to listen to some of the commentators, that played a number of years ago, when they exclaim “Oh that was a good tackle” and a player is on his back and nearly knocked out.
What is it about the sport that attracts people to play a game that can be brutally rough, with injuries a plenty? I believe many Americans have asked that question since the start of 2024 season.
Is it the fight, competitiveness, recognition, glory, ego or something else entirely?
The following should create a stir -
Previously, as a Workplace Health and Safety representative, for a group of road construction men, I would seriously question men’s thinking when it comes to making sane decisions on their health and safety, when ability, competitiveness, adrenaline and ego get in the way.
As well as the Drs and coaches, perhaps Kayln Ponga and Reece Walsh fall into that category too, with their decision making!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
@ MGM
Mate, agree 100% with your comments regarding Kalyn Ponga and Reece Walsh. I was watching the Knights vs. Roosters Round 6 clash and was shaking my head when Ponga had painkillers so he could see out the second half. Shaking my head once again when he played last week and now he’s sporting the latest in footwear fashion. His decision or theirs doesn’t matter as it came a cropper.
Surprised Reece wasn’t wearing the protective helmet he wore the week before. I just thought it was too early for him to stop wearing it to be honest. If it was my decision I would’ve “told him” he had another 2-3 weeks wearing it just to be safe. It’s good to know who’s actually in charge eh?
Moving on … I’ve started looking at the line bets each week just out of interest. I couldn’t see any lines worth taking this week bar one possibility. I know the Rabbitohs are struggling at the moment and they’re up against the Storm at AAMI but at the time of writing this they’re getting +12.5. If I were a betting man I would jump onto this as I reckon they’re possibly gonna keep this somewhat close. If anyone out there does dabble, do it responsibly OK? Make sure your bills are paid first and the kids are fed. OK, let’s do this thing …
Warriors vs. Titans @ Mount Smart (NZ)
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors
Verdict: Much to my surprise, the Warriors were pretty average last week. The Titans on the other hand were much improved against a quality side (Manly). Given they’re a better side, playing at home and looking for the “bounce back”, I’m on the Warriors by 10.
Dragons vs. Roosters @ Allianz
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Dragons
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Verdict: These Anzac Day matches against the Dragons always worry me. This one is no different, especially considering how well the Dragons won last week. The Chooks have some “guns” coming back so that gives me a little more confidence. Roosters by 6. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Storm vs. Rabbitohs @ AAMI
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
Verdict: On the face of it you’d expect the Storm to get in pretty easily here. They’ve got the form, ladder position, they’re favourites with the bookies and they’re at home. As much as they seem to be getting a little better, will be “fresh” after their bye and have Cook back in the side, I can’t see the Rabbitohs being good enough this week. Storm by 10.
Manly vs. Eels @ Brookvale
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
Verdict: Manly had a slight hiccup last week but managed a hard-fought win against an improved Titans. The Eels are starting to confuse me. It’s getting to the point where I can’t quite trust them (apologies Baggy). Based on what I saw last week I just can’t tip them against quality opposition. Manly by 12.
Tigers vs. Broncos @ Campbelltown
Probability @ 20-80
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos
Verdict: After showing some encouraging glimpses this year, the Tigers have gone off the boil it seems to me. When you consider the class factor in this one, I have a feeling the Tigers may be found lacking somewhat. The Broncos have a couple of big returns in Haas and Reynolds but that might be “balanced off” with the Broncos missing Mam and Cobbo. Having said that though, the Broncos should be far too strong here. Broncos by 12.
Cowboys vs. Panthers @ Townsville
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
Verdict: I won’t say the Cowboys were woeful last week but I will say they were pretty average. Now they have to face the quality of the Panthers who will have May and Cleary returning. It won’t be easy, even at home. After their bye, the Panthers weren’t really tested last week but will be better for the run. I think they’ll win but the Cowboys are too good to give it up easy, the Panthers might have to work for it. Panthers by 6.
Dolphins vs. Knights @ Suncorp
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins
Verdict: I may have to rethink my opinion of the Dolphins after watching them last week. I was fairly impressed with how they went about getting the job done. Yes, I tipped the Knights to lose last week but thought it would’ve been closer. Not sure what they need to do to get back on track. To make matters worse, they’ll be missing Hetherington and Ponga. In theory, this picks itself. Dolphins by 12.
Raiders vs. Sharks @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks
Verdict:
If I had to pick the “upset of the week”, it might be this game. Yes, I realise the Broncos did a number on them last week but I think the Raiders are not without a chance here. The Anzac Day round throws up some weird results sometimes and means different things to different clubs. The Sharks were very, very good last week I must admit. Impressed with how they went about smashing their opposition. Based on last week’s results, you’d expect the Sharks to get in comfortably but I’m gonna try my best to look stupid and tip the upset. Raiders by 4.
Bye: Bulldogs
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Just thought I’d put up something a little different this week. Just be warned, YT have “updated” the look so some of you (not all) may find the comments have moved to the right-hand side. I personally hate it but I usually watch YT videos on DDG so I don’t have to sit through the ads and only get the video and nothing else if that makes sense. Anyway, enjoy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtTVyb0qU90
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by The Thinker on
Vale Terry Hill
That really does seem too soon.
Condolences to those that new him.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by MGM on
:-) , :-) , :-) , :-) , :-) , :-) , :-) , :-) , :-)
Kalyn didn't need a crystal ball to know that he should have pulled himself off at half time last week !
Yes, the cameras Were on in that dressing room , but he should have gone to the showers (instead of running/limping back onfield with his team mates) .... ..... sorry for that imagery .. :-)
.. Newbie , on Reece , you said if it was your decision you would have "told him" 2-3 more weeks. ... I wish it was your decision , it Definitely should not have been His decision !
.. Mary , you're spot on about ego and the macho mindset getting in the way of sane choices in so many workplaces , but Ponga and Walsh should not have had a say in those matters.
Submitted by bradapple on
I'm really thinking the Dragons can overcome the chooks tonight. The loss of Tupou and Radley is huge, the Dragons lose Rava but I don't think he's a huge out atm. Definitely smelling an upset!
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Anything is possible Bradapple. Never know on this day.
I did a reply to you on our last exchange. Last post for Round 7.
Have a nice day as We Will Remember Them.
Keep well - BigPete in Bx
Submitted by MGM on
I'm with you bradapple (and Fanboy!).
If there's going to be an upset this round , I think the Dragons can rise to the occasion and provide it .
Otherwise , this is a round that pretty well picks itself , with only the Raiders at home being the other possibility (IMHO), but what Thinker has said about their spine has made me shy away from that one.
.... Good luck to everyone on this very special day .
Submitted by The Voyeur on
Dear Mr Thinker
I have somehow managed to miss the cut off with the first game at halftime (I do not know how I have managed that after all these years), can I request a late pass this round ??
If so I would be warriors (that's my team and down by 7); Dragons, Storm; Panthers, Bronc, Sharks, Manly, Dolphins
Appreciate the consideration
Submitted by TigerGirl on
Late with tips sorry
NZ
Roosters
Storm
Manly
Tigers
Penrith
Dolphins
Sharks
Submitted by MGM on
THAT'S the Dragon s team I KNOW !
.. WHAT was I THINKING ??
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Newbie,
You would be "over the moon' at your team's result today.
I too, thought there might be an upset here, with Dragons getting the win, but not to be.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
@The Voyeur and TigerGirl
I've added your tips for round eight now.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by JKBubble on
late again...my tips for the rest of round 8.
Eagles
Broncos
Panthers
Dolphins
Sharks
Submitted by The Thinker on
@JKBubble
I've added your tips for round 8 now.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by MGM on
As entertaining as it was tonight to watch Adam Reynolds to take an intercept with 5 mins to go when he couldn't even Walk properly , it was Very concerning to witness "the club's" neglect of their two most prized "thoroughbreds" in the last 15 minutes when the match was by now unlosable. .... The worst was when , for an entire set or more , the trainers either ignored or didn't even see Reece Walsh calling for assistance and needing to be sidelined.
... The RSPCA WOULD HAVE FINED THEM !!
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I've just made this up on the fly, but wanted to get it down somewhere in case it becomes legislation and you can all blame me for it :-)
Regarding the kick-off returns and whether or not they should be taken out of the game to avoid the high speed collisions and concussion issues.
How about they tweak the kick-offs so that if the ball crosses the 20 metre line on the full the receiving team gets a penalty? You won't have ball returners coming off the back fence and the speed of the players at the point of impact is reduced.
I'll sit back now and wait for people to let me know why that won't work (which is okay).
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hi Thinker
You raise an interesting point of view. I don't think we take away the adrenalin filled starts to a footy match. The kick off and subsequent return sets the temperature for the rest of the match and I think players need to change how they defend a player running at them off the back fence with a matched intensity to hopefully avoid injuries through concussion.
In saying that, players running the ball back from the kick off have to be penalised heavily if they raise an elbow or forearm into the collision.
I think leave the game alone for now.
Tiger
Submitted by MGM on
Nice concept Thinker.
Ball receivers though, would be planting one foot on the 20mtr line if the kicker pushes his luck so kickers would aim for the middle (23/24mtrs)at best and that's a hard sell.
The 10mtr line would see the ball being caught at around 13/14mtrs, the ball chasers would still have picked up less speed because they'd be making contact at around the 25mtr mark, giving the ball returner only about 10 or 12mtrs to accelerate .... Kick chasers will have to decelerate if they don't want to be easily side-stepped (as is already the case) and "bingo", I think you've reduced the head-on impacts significantly.
If the 10mtr line is still too hard to sell , then even the try line would be 10 metres further forward than what we have at the moment !
Really good idea mate and my vote is for the 10mtr line.
What Tiger says about elbows and knees is spot on too.
The hard heads can still get their thrills from long kicks and big hits in normal play , but you've identified one area that can and should reduce nasty injuries with nothing more than a "tweak" to existing rules.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@MGM
You're right - ten metres is better than twenty metres.
@Tiger
Agree with you on the bumper bars and ball carriers.
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