Canberra Raiders vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
It's Magic Round folks, and that's enough of an excuse for us all to watch Olivia Newton-John in cowboy boots. You're welcome. The Raiders will be nice and fresh after a week off, and pleased with the news that their coach is staying put for some time yet. Two weeks ago they surprised many with a narrow win over the Sea Eagles at Brookvale - their halves combination are young (Weekes is 22, Strange is 19) but look like footballers to me. Rapana returns from injury and takes over at fullback. With hardly anyone noticing, the Raiders are in the top eight, and doing better than almost everyone had expected. The Bulldogs are on the cusp of the top eight themselves, and I expect they'll end up there in September. They continue to improve and they have match winners sprinkled throughout their roster. Recent victories (Roosters, Knights, Tigers) and competitive losses against premiership contenders away from home (Storm, Panthers) reads like top eight form. I have to believe in the Bulldogs - nothing can stand in their way. A terrific contest to kick off magic round.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 4
Result – Raiders 24 defeated Bulldogs 20
Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium
Manly have announced that this will be their last 'home' game during Magic Round. Given they were beaten by 26 in 2023 and by 38 in 2022 I'm not surprised. With the injuries to Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab their prospects of an improved showing in 2024 have been greatly diminished. They lost to the Dolphins at this ground just a week ago, and you'd have to think this would be harder. The Broncos proved they can without Adam Reynolds last week with a comfortable victory over the Eels in Sydney. This looks easier. Jock Madden looks set to return in the halves, and Tyson Smoothy got plenty of minutes at dummy half last week with the injury to Billy Walters. Expect Mam and Walsh to be carving up the Sea Eagles late in both halves. Looks like fun.
Verdict – Broncos by 14
Result – Broncos 13 defeated Sea Eagles 12
Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium
The Gold Coast are so short of playmakers in their squad they've called on a pair of hookers in the halves on Saturday afternoon (there's a joke about the Gold Coast in there somewhere but I'll keep it to myself). The Titans are without Brimson, Foran, Boyd, Campbell, Sami and Smith-Shields - they'll need to keep cobbling together a backline however they can, so hookers it is. They did well to hold out the Cowboys last week, but the Knights are in a patch of fair form. It looks like Kalyn Ponga has received his boat or bathroom or whatever it was that someone promised his Dad, so the issues with the third party appear to be resolved. David Fifita should be up for a big game, given his contractual reverse tuck triple somersault this week. I doubt it's enough this weekend.
Verdict – Knights by 8
Result – Knights 28 defeated Titans 24
Cronulla Sharks vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium
The twilight game is the highlight game. When Magic Round was scheduled this wasn't even considered the biggest game of the day (more on that later), but it's probably the biggest game of the round. The Sharks, ridiculed by some and mostly by me, proved themselves against a genuine opponent last week - beating the Storm in Melbourne with their most important player sitting out the game. Hynes is likely to be back for this, but the Sharks face a red-hot Roosters, a team that have scored an astonishing 138 points in their last three games. The Sharks miserly defence isn't likely to leak points easily, but if there are chinks in the armour the Chooks will find them. Manu is out for a week and he's all but irreplaceable, but the rest of the Roosters backline is singing and their off-contract back-rower (Crichton) has been the best player in the NRL for the last two weeks. The Sharks have a poor record against the Roosters in recent times and a poor record at Suncorp Stadium too.
Verdict – Roosters by 4
Result – Sharks 38 defeated Roosters 30
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium
Last plays 12th, as the team that's lost five games in a row takes on the team that has (Thinker checks notes) lost five games in a row. This is the main event on Saturday night, but it doesn't feel like it. It's easy to forget that the Cowboys were undefeated after the first three weeks of the season. It's also worth remembering that their last three losses were all by narrow margins. They might be closer to finding form than we realise, and they do appear to have a pack of forwards that can dominate this contest. The Bunnies haven't given us any indication that they can turn things around this season. There's plenty of experienced heads in their line up - Walker is 34, Cook is 32, Wighton is 31. Perhaps they're just getting old.
Verdict – Cowboys by 14
Result – Cowboys 28 defeated Rabbitohs 22
New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium
This game could have been anything, but with the Warriors out of form and missing both Johnson and Tuivasa-Sheck, as well as the absence of Cleary for the Panthers, it's looking a little closer to nothing than it is to anything. Nicoll-Klokstad and Martin are the halves for the Warriors - they're both terrific players but that doesn't look like their natural habitat. Asking them to steer around a team that have been clunky in attack all year is a big ask, but I genuinely hope they go well. The Panthers won without Cleary last week, and not for the first time this season. Cole joins Luai in the halves on Sunday, so both sides will be bringing an unusual halves combination on Sunday. The Panthers supporting cast is a strong ensemble, and it's hard to tip against them.
Verdict – Panthers by 10
Result – Warriors 22 defeated Panthers 20
Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium
The Storm suffered their biggest loss of the season last week, but they didn't lose by much. The loss showed me (at least) just how important Jahrome Hughes is to the Storm roster. He's indicated he has no interest in playing for anyone else, so I hope the Storm reward him appropriately with his next contract. He'll be rested for one more week, so Wishart joins Munster in the halves for at least one more week. The Eels are resting Moses for at least one more week too. There were signs of life from the Eels in round ten - not enough to win but enough to give their fans hope. Dylan Brown was much more involved than usual and in a good way - perhaps the absence of other key players has forced him to put up his hand. A game I expect will surprise on the upside. I'm anticipating an entertaining competitive affair. The Storm have had plenty of experience in close games this season, and they usually win then. And they don't lose two in a row very often either.
Verdict – Storm by 1
Result – Storm 48 defeated Eels 16
Wests Tigers vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Sunday night – Suncorp Stadium
These sides met in round five which wasn't so long ago, and it was even at this venue. It's a Tigers home game in name only in that regard. The Dolphins won that last game 26-16, and there's no real reason to think they can't repeat the result on Sunday. The return of my favourite player (Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow) is the sprinkling of magic needed to close out the round.
Verdict – Dolphins by 10
Result – Dolphins 24 defeated Tigers 12
Wally Lewis - round eleven selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- RAIDERS vs Bulldogs
- Sea Eagles vs BRONCOS
- TITANS vs Knights
- SHARKS vs Roosters
- Rabbitohs vs COWBOYS
- Warriors vs PANTHERS
- STORM vs Eels
- Tigers vs DOLPHINS
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 10. No major upsets and plenty of solid results from our tipsters, but only one of us scored 8 from 8. Congrats to Mad Max...outstanding tipping there. Mad Max and JhayMare move to the top of the tipping comp leaderboard following that round. 26 tipsters are within 4 points of the two leaders so, as always, its a wide open contest.
If anyone notices any issues with the tipping scores just let me know. It's pretty cold this morning and I might have frozen my brain.
I'll have my previews and selections for Magic Round published on Wednesday. Lets hope for a run of sunny days in Brisbane so they can get the ground in fair shape before they play nine games on it in four days.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
@ The Thinker,
Do we have until Friday (when R11 starts) to put in our tips, or do they have to be in before the Women's 1st Origin game starts on Thursday?
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Mary S
Great question
You have until the first mens game on the Friday night.
I'll be popping along to the game on Thursday night...should be a ripper.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
This may be of interest to some of you - the NRL and rugby league journalism getting a mention on ABC Media Watch this week.
And for those that are curious...I am a human being.
Submitted by The Thinker on
Unless it's part of some strange joke - it sounds like David Fifita is going to stay at the Titans after all.
World is weird.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Yasap Nganu on
Hi Sir, Can I have your the Tips for Sunday Games?
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Yasap Nganu
They're all there now.
Best of luck.
The Thinker
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
Not trying to be disrespectful here but I’m relieved the Roosters won’t be signing David Fifita. Dunno, have always had this funny feeling about him. Yes, he’s a wrecking ball when he’s “switched on” but half the time he isn’t and I didn’t think he was going to be a good fit for us anyway. Again, not being disrespectful but I reckon we “dodged a bullet” there. Phew! 😉 OK, let’s do this thing …
Magic Round – All games @ Suncorp
Raiders vs. Bulldogs
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Raiders
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs
Verdict: Dunno, a lot of pundits are giving the Bulldogs a chance here and the “numbers” have them slightly ahead but I have a feeling the Raiders might get up here, especially given the fact they’ll be fresh from a week off. Raiders by 6.
Manly vs. Broncos
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos
Verdict: I don’t think 25-75 is a true reflection of Manly’s chances here. Yeah, they’re pretty average at the moment but I still think they’re better (even with the side they currently have) than what the numbers show. Not that I think they’ll win, but they will have a crack. Having said that, the Broncos are the better side and should get it done without too much fuss. Broncos by 8.
Titans vs. Knights
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights
Verdict: The Titans are definitely on the improve and may get a confidence boost now that Fifita has finished his dilly-dallying and decided to stay. The numbers and bookies have the Knights winning this and I think they might be right, but only just. Knights by 4.
Sharks vs. Roosters
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Roosters
Verdict: Yes I know my magnificent Roosters are white hot at the moment but not quite sure how they’re favourites and rated 60-40 ahead of the Sharks. The Sharks are on top for a reason and it was a great effort last week when they knocked off the Storm in Melbourne. Are they due for a loss I wonder? I’m gonna back my BBB to keep the momentum going, they have the class and confidence at the minute. Roosters by 6. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Rabbitohs vs. Cowboys
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
Verdict: I’m sure most would agree the Rabbitohs are a train smash at the moment. Not sure they’ll improve all that much Saturday night now they know Wayne will be at the helm next year. They’re up against a Cowboys side who are not playing to their potential and who will be looking for some redemption after leaving it too late and just falling short last week. There were signs in that loss however. Cowboys by 10.
Warriors vs. Panthers
Probability @ 30-70
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
Verdict: I don’t understand why Shaun Johnson kept playing last week. Shows his true grit but also shows the club’s lack of looking after their players’ welfare. Harsh maybe but that’s how I see it. Not that it matters here as the Warriors are off the boil anyway and they’re up against a very classy side. That classy side, even without Cleary, should get the job done. Panthers by 12.
Storm vs. Eels
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
Verdict: The Eels showed a tiny glimmer last week but they have too much going against them at the moment. To make matters worse, they’re up against a very good side who “need” to bounce back after their loss to the league leaders last week. The Storm will have too much class in this one. Storm by 12.
Tigers vs. Dolphins
Probability @ 30-70
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins
Verdict: Even though the figures and form don’t show it, I’m expecting an improved performance from the Tigers this week. Not enough to get the win but they might just have a good ol’ crack. Then again I might be wrong. It’s a funny old game as we all know. Nevertheless, the Dolphins aren’t doing too much wrong at the moment so I see no reason to jump off them. Dolphins by 8.
Bye: Dragons
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
You’re in for a treat this week. All-time classic toon that should (in theory) get those toes of yours a tappin’.
https://youtu.be/oqZaDKqHFBs
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by The Thinker on
For those that might find such things interesting - last nights first womens State of Origin game rated higher than any mens NRL game this season, including the openers in Las Vegas. It also rated higher than any mens AFL game this season.
Submitted by Mary S on
@ The Thinker,
If you do not hear from 'a' can I submit the following tips on his behalf?
Bulldogs
Broncos
Knight
Roosters
Cowboys
Panthers
Storm
Dolphins
Most unusual for 'a' not to have tips in so hope he is OK.
Cheers,
Mary