Round twelve selections

Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Thursday night – Accor Stadium

I've found it difficult to get up and running this round, primarily because this game really has me sitting on the fence. Both sides have improved this season (coming off a pretty low base) and it's difficult to say who has improved the most. For the Bulldogs, Burton, Crichton and Addo-Carr are in the Origin discussion while Dragons Lomax, Hunt and Su'A are in the Origin frame. Lomax and Addo-Carr look set to line up against each other on Thursday, which will make for an interesting contest. I've ended up tipping the Bulldogs for three reasons - their recent record against the Dragons, the Dragons under-performance away from home and at this venue, and the fact that the Bulldogs have been able to beat and compete with top eight teams this year. The Dragons have played three top eight sides this season (Knights, Roosters, Sharks) and lost them all. In two of those games they could only manage 10 points in attack, and in the one game they did better than that they conceded 60. The Thursday night scheduling will probably keep crowd numbers down which is a tad disappointing - this game might have drawn 25000 on a Friday night.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result – Bulldogs 44 defeated Dragons 12

North Queensland Cowboys vs Wests Tigers – Friday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

Perhaps the most frustrating team this season - the Cowboys look like a side that are close to breaking out and reaching their potential, but it hasn't happened yet. They'll take some confidence out of a victory last week, but a 6 point victory over the team running last is no reason for Cowboys fans to start booking flights to Sydney for the grand final just yet. They can claim another scalp on Friday night, but again, not the strongest competition here. The Tigers have lost both their starting centres (Olam and Naden) with Casey and Feledy as replacements. Deardon has been trying to put Holmes into gaps all year and they'll have no better chance to perfect that play than here. Holmes has had a frustrating season by his standards, and this is an opportunity for him to find some form while Billy Slater is watching. Back him with confidence to score a try on Friday night. He might even score a few. There's a fistful of Cowboys in the mix for Queensland Origin selection - it's time to shine.

Verdict – Cowboys by 22

Result – Cowboys 42 defeated Tigers 28

Manly Sea Eagles vs Melbourne Storm – Friday night – 4 Pines Park

The Sea Eagles appears to be in free-fall with three consecutive losses, but it's not quite as catastrophic as some may make it out to be. The margins in those three losses were 2, 6 and 1, and all were against top eight teams. Their biggest loss all season has been by 8 points, so they are clearly a competitive squad. They're also a much better side at Brookvale, a venue where they have beaten the Roosters and the Panthers this season. They're a chance here. The Storm have named Hughes to return this week but he could easily be a late withdrawal. His inclusion (or exclusion) is a big factor, so worth keeping your eye out for team changes here. Storm fans grimaced with Munster when he went down with a groin injury just before half time last week, but they actually played better without him. It was almost as if a restricted Munster was holding them back up until that point. A game that I expect will be closer than most are assuming, but the Storm are winning the close contests, and the Sea Eagles aren't.

Verdict – Storm by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Sea Eagles 26 defeated Storm 20

Canberra Raiders vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The first of three really interesting games on Saturday, with the 6th placed Raiders returning home to face the 7th placed Roosters. Canberra were good enough to knock off the Bulldogs last weekend, even with two players sin binned (and briefly fielding just 11 players). Their formidable forward park has been diminished somewhat with Papalii unavailable, but it's still a fair pack. They've also unearthed a genuine playmaking prospect in teenager Ethan Strange. The future looks bright for the Raiders if they can keep him in the capital. The Raiders are always a difficult team to beat at home in the winter months, but the daytime schedule will help the visitors, and the weather doesn't look too bad by Canberra standards. The Raiders have also struggled against the better sides this year, and I'm happy to call the Roosters a better side. They weren't far off the Sharks last weekend, and they're a much better side with Joey Manu in the backline. I'll be steering well clear of commenting on the video of a bunch of Chooks that is doing the rounds.

Verdict – Roosters by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Roosters 44 defeated Raiders 16

Cronulla Sharks vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday night – PointsBet Stadium

The Sharks have answered the critics (me, mostly) and racked up successive victories over proper football teams with wins over the Storm in Melbourne and the Roosters in Brisbane. Now they head back to their tiny home ground which probably sold out long before any Panthers fans could get a ticket. The Panthers would be spewing after that loss to the Warriors, and their coach was obviously not a happy man after the game. If they took the Warriors lightly they won't make the same mistake here. The bookmakers have the Panthers as the outsider on Saturday night, and that might be the first time in about three years, but it does make sense. I doubt that the NSW selectors are considering Luai over Hynes, but if they are a dominant Sharks performance on Saturday should put an end to it. Hynes to casually slot a field goal in the last few minutes to shore up the victory and a well-earned Blues jersey.

Verdict – Sharks by 7

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 42 defeated Sharks 0

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

Happy birthday Brad Arthur, we made you a cake. Also, you're fired. Not the greatest way to celebrate turning 50, but Arthur took the news with the class he has demonstrated throughout his coaching career. I do hope he returns to the game in some shape or form soon. So the Eels take on the only other team that have sacked their coach this season, in what would usually be a blockbuster clash. Parramatta played like a team that had given up in the second half against the Storm - perhaps they'd received word that their coach was going to get his marching orders, and that Wayne Bennett wasn't coming to save the day. The Rabbitohs have a chance to show Bennett that he made the right choice. Note that Jack Wighton gets a chance to drag this team out of the gutter by pulling on the number six jersey. He won a Clive Churchill medal in a losing side in that position, and I think he can prove the difference on Saturday night.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Rabbitohs 42 defeated Eels 26

Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

A rare Sunday afternoon outing for the Broncos - it's actually their only Sunday game for the season (unless you count Vegas). As such, they're likely to have a bumper crowd, as families get a rare opportunity to take their kids to the game in a friendly timeslot. Some big names look set to return for the Broncos, with Walters and Walsh named to start. Cobbo returns to the centres after showing everyone how versatile he is, while Staggs is rested after hurting a rib in a training session. For the Titans, Kieran Foran has been named on an extended bench and is likely to be rested for another week. The Titans have been competitive in recent weeks but this is a real test - the only teams that have beaten the Broncos this season are the Roosters, Panthers and Storm. That's fair form. 

Verdict – Broncos by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Titans 36 defeated Broncos 34

New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Sunday afternoon – Go Media Stadium

This is just the second time the Dolphins have had to leave Queensland this season (and the first time was to Darwin). This time they're off to New Zealand, and they won't be in NSW until round 15. While that sounds like they've had an easy draw, they've only played one game all year at Redcliffe, so an unusual draw it must be said. They've won three in a row and are looking more and more like a top eight team every week. I for one was pleased to see Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow back on the field, stretching out and scoring tries. He's the most exciting player to watch in the game right now...in my insignificant opinion. The Warriors victory over the Panthers was the highlight of a Magic Round with plenty of highlights. The key players that were missing in that game are still missing on Sunday, but the players they do have will take confidence from the result. They'll go close, but the Dolphins look the goods.

Verdict – Dolphins by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Warriors 24 defeated Dolphins 20

Wally Lewis - round twelve selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • BULLDOGS vs Dragons
  • COWBOYS vs Tigers
  • Sea Eagles vs STORM
  • Raiders vs ROOSTERS
  • SHARKS vs Panthers
  • Rabbitohs vs EELS
  • BRONCOS vs Titans
  • Warriors vs DOLPHINS

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after Magic Round.

Amazingly, to me at least, just one of us tipped the Eels to beat the Storm (our tipping comp winner last year), even though I spent more time ruminating on that game than any other. In fact, more of you tipped the Warriors to beat the Panthers - congrats to lillychino and TRIIPIN_C on finding that amazing result. As always, if you notice any issues with the scoring just let me know.

I'll have my previews for the slightly less magical round 12 published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Andrew Henry's picture

Good morning ,

Can you forward me the NRL tips for round 12 2024 ?

Leonard Tom Guaba 's picture

I love to know about this weekend game round 12

Stalen Joe's picture

I'm in the latest tips of the round 12 , if can notify me on my gmail

Danny Sasuwo's picture

Please notify me when the tips of nrl round 12 2024 are posted

The Thinker's picture

Thanks everyone. I should have my tips published here on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Espinol Paul's picture

I would love to know this weekends round 12 tips

bradapple's picture

Those all look like fake accounts ^^ Mr Thinker?

The Thinker's picture

@bradapple

I can't see any dubious links for medications on the dark web or worse...but you could be right. I'll keep an eye on them.

Nice win by your crew at Magic Round.

All the best

The Thinker

bradapple's picture

Was the highlight of my weekend even though it cost me money on the TAB 😂. Will not bet against my team again for a while and sure serves me right!
All the best bro 💪

a's picture

Tough games to pick I’ll say

a's picture

Should be an interesting round

newbie from perth's picture

Hey Frens,

Nothing much to say in the "opening credits” except for “methinks they may be as you said @ bradapple” 🤔 and congrats to your boys for that win last week. OK, let’s do this thing …

Bulldogs vs. Dragons @ Accor
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Dragons
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs

The Dragons will be nice and fresh after the bye but not sure they have enough to beat the Bulldogs who, despite losing last week, put in an effort full of merit. Bulldogs by 6.

Cowboys vs. Tigers @ Townsville
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

Now that the Cowboys have finally won again, they need to stay on track. At home against a Tigers side missing players and desire, I think the Cowboys should win this. Cowboys by 10.

Manly vs. Storm @ Brookvale
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

While they’re at home, I don’t think Manly have the class to get over the Storm this week. The Storm’s effort last week was very, very good and they’ll have too many big guns for Manly Friday night. Storm by 10.

Raiders vs. Roosters @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

The Raiders’ win over the Bulldogs had less merit than the Roosters’ loss to the best side in the competition. It’s that simple really. Roosters by 12.

Sharks vs. Panthers @ The Bermuda Triangle
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

This is a hard one to pick. The longer you keep winning, the closer you get to losing one. Then you have a (still) classy Panthers looking to bounce back. I know last week they were not quite what we’re used to seeing but I have a feeling the Panthers are a huge chance here. I might go out on a limb and tip against the Sharks. Panthers by 4.

Rabbitohs vs. Eels @ Accor
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

The Eels got slapped silly last week by the Storm but the Rabbitohs got beat by an out of sorts Cowboys. I see the Rabbitohs have made some positional changes (Jack & Cody) and not sure if it’s a quick fix or not. I think the Eels might have something to prove on behalf of Brad Arthur but having said that, this could go either way. Eels by 6.

Broncos vs. Titans @ Suncorp
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

The Broncos will simply have too much class in this one. You just need to look at the team sheet to realise that. The Titans are missing players and it’ll be hard for them to stay competitive Sunday afternoon. Broncos by 12.

Warriors vs. Dolphins @ Mount Smart
Probability @ 50-50
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins

The Warriors surprised us all when they knocked off the Panthers last week. I’m wondering if that effort may have a bearing on whether or not they can replicate the emotion and endeavour. The Dolphins haven’t been doing much wrong and the player list looks solid enough. Dolphins by 6.

Bye: Knights

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Dunno, seems like I’m on a guitar trip lately. This is an amazing song from 52 years ago (whaaaa?) by a guy some of you older folk will remember. Not sure if you’d expect this from him or not. All I will say is get ready for 6:18 of awesomeness. Boo-Yah!

https://youtu.be/j1b-h1Nxfrs

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

MGM's picture

Hi Thinker,
Looks like you've omitted my tips for round 11.
Please take a look for me.
Also, I agree with Bradapple, those early enquiries this week looked very suss.
Bradapple, I too missed just one leg of a couple of multis because the mail was that DWZ wouldn't be playing

The Thinker's picture

I noticed the company that Roosters chairman Nick Politis has a large stake in is getting beaten up a little on the sharemarket today.

A quick back of the envelope calculation - he's about $130m poorer than he was yesterday.

He's going okay though...no need for a gofundme page or anything.

All the best

The Thinker

The Last Samurai's picture

Hi Thinker,
It has worked on the tipping page I have resubmitted my tips with EELS being submitted instead of South's just wanted you to know.
It's the first time I have changed a tip so thankfully it has registered .For your info
Warmest Regards
The Last Samurai

Rocket Ryan's picture

Thinker I missed the boat tips this week
Cowboys
Eagles
Roosters
Sharks
Rabbits
Broncos
Warriors

Cheers 🍻

The Thinker's picture

@Rocket Ryan

I'll add those tips for you.

@Last Samurai

Nice work sir.

All the best

The Thinker

MGM's picture

Thinker , many thanks for your thoughts re Valentine Holmes.
I put him in 2 multis with Kyle Feldt and Cowboys -6.5.
the second multi I had him for two tries .... aand with only 3 seconds to go he DID it !
..... Gamble responsibly !

The Thinker's picture

@MGM 

Well done sir. I'm glad someone made something out of that.

All the best

The Thinker

MGM's picture

Such a deserving win to Manly.
There's no doubt that with 6 minutes to go Jahrome Hughes threw a forward pass before his try.... NO DOUBT.
To see them level up after that would have made my brain explode !

There is NO SUCH THING as a "flat pass"! ..When the commentators can see for sure that it was slightly forward the call it Very flat. ...
AAARRGH !
Flat means it wasn't "backwards out of the hands" , which is NOT "flat" it's ILLEGAL ! ....AAARRGH !
If you disagree then SHOW me , post the part of the NRL rule book that refers to or MENTIONS EVEN ONCE a Flat F#(king Pass !

MGM's picture

P.S.
Hughes' pass was Very, Very ... VERY flat !

The Last Samurai's picture

A mate in a different tipping competition out of frustration picked his team's out of a hat this week and got 6 out of 8.So much for studying team lists stats form and history resulting in 2...it's getting just like lotto.

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