Round twenty six selections

North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

First and foremost, congratulations to the 2024 minor premiers. That's the fifth J.J. Giltinan Shield for the Melbourne Storm, quite a feat for a team in an AFL-obsessed state. They're resting 11 of their regular first graders for this match - controversial if you ask some people but it makes sense to me (full disclosure: I had a rare bet on the Cowboys to win this game before the team lists came out, so I'm a little bit biased). Despite that, they still have a spine that includes Wishart, Munster and Papenhuyzen, so we can hardly call this team the Norths Devils. That said, the assignment is a lot easier for the Cowboys now. They also welcome back Nanai and Taumalolo...handy inclusions. There's some chance this is the last home game for Kyle Feldt. With Feldt and Granville departing at season's end, there's just the one player remaining from their 2015 premiership side (the other JT). Thursday night isn't an awesome scheduling slot for the Cowboys home games as a rule, but I expect a fair crowd on hand to say goodbye to two of their favourite sons.

Verdict – Cowboys by 10

Result – Cowboys 38 defeated Storm 30

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – Accor Stadium

Speaking of crowds, they should rack up a decent number at this fairly hideous stadium on Friday night. Most will be Bulldogs fans of course, as Manly fans don't like to leave their corner of the world unless they really have to (to be fair, it's a nice corner). Manly have a tremendous record over the Bulldogs in recent years (nine wins from their last ten games), but the capitulation last week to the team running last doesn't read well. It was another reminder that their record away from Brookvale is very poor. To make matters worse, they face a team that hasn't lost a home game all season. The Bulldogs will be without two of their best on Friday night (Crichton and Mann), but they have winning momentum and I doubt that Manly have the defence to stop them.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 7

Result – Sea Eagles 34 defeated Bulldogs 22

Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – BlueBet Stadium

Cameron Murray was unsuccessful at the judiciary this week, so his season is over. A replacement is yet to be named. Cody Walker returns from suspension which helps a bit. The Rabbitohs had a brief mid-season resurgence but since then have lost 7 of their last 8, and they are clearly limping to the finish line. To think that Jack Wighton left a club he loved to earn less money with a team he thought might win a premiership. The Panthers have lost two games in a row and that doesn't happen very often. They've clearly come down a notch or two from the imposing unit they've been in recent seasons, but that's hardly surprising given the injuries to their halfback and the whiteanting of their roster by other clubs. Mitch Kenny and Paul Alamoti return this week, which helps. Note that in round 9 the Panthers played the Rabbitohs without Cleary and won 42-12. I'm expecting a similar result here, and the home ground advantage will help them deliver.

Verdict – Panthers by 34

Result – Panthers 34 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Parramatta Eels vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

As per last week, the Dragons finals prospects are in their own hands, but it didn't help much last week. Granted, the Sharks are a harder opponent than the Eels, but I expected more from them playing at home in their annual grudge match. This venue was once a fortress for the Eels, but they've lost their last four at CommBank. Notably, three of those losses were against top four teams (Roosters, Storm, Panthers), so they should find this easier. They went close in that Panthers game, until ten minutes of Cleary magic stole victory away from them. They didn't miss by much against the Broncos in Brisbane last week either. If they can keep it together for 80 minutes they can spring an upset here.

Verdict – Eels by 1

Result – Eels 44 defeated Dragons 40

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

I can guarantee you fireworks at the latest installment of the Battle for Brisbane...or is it the Battle of Brisbane? Not just because Kaufusi is likely to clock someone a little high and late at some point. Saturday night is Riverfire in Brisbane, and they've included ten minutes of colourful sky sparks above and around Lang Park at the conclusion of this game. I have no idea what happens if this goes to golden point - just play through them I suppose. It's 9th versus 10th and the scriptwriters have come up with a compelling scenario. If the Dragons can lose earlier in the day this game becomes all the more important. The winner can keep on dreaming of finals football, while the loser can start plotting their off-season silliness. Keep an eye out for late team changes for both sides, with both coaches playing three dimensional mind chess with each other in the lead-up. Haas has been named on the reserves for the Broncos, and may get called in if he gets through a training session this morning (Wednesday). I can hear them going through their paces as I write, so stay tuned for updates there. Even if Haas doesn't play, the Broncos do look like they have an edge in the forwards on Saturday. There's not a lot of seats left for this game, so assume a 40000+ crowd, and the Broncos are likely to have a little more of the support.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

Result – Dolphins 40 defeated Broncos 6

Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – PointsBet Stadium

The last game of the season for the Warriors, and the last game ever for Shaun Johnson. It's fortuitous that the game is between the only two clubs he played with. The Warriors don't have much else to play for, but at least they have that. The Sharks are some hope of a top two finish so they'll give their all. Katoa and Talakai return on Saturday, and there's some chance Nicho Hynes could lace on the boots too. They dominated the Dragons last week and even their biggest doubter (me, probably) has to concede they're a genuine top four team this year. Now they just have to win a final.

Verdict – Sharks by 16

Result – Warriors 30 defeated Sharks 28

Newcastle Knights vs Gold Coast Titans – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium

By the time the Knights take to the field on Sunday, the three teams directly above them will have already played their round 26 matches. With two winnable games at home, the Knights are every chance to leapfrog the lot of them and take the last finals slot for the season. They have to win of course, and they've only won two of their last six. Those wins were against the teams running 15th and 17th, so we shouldn't assume they're a certainty on Sunday. The Knights did beat the Titans in Magic Round, but there wasn't much in that. The key differences this time around are the venue (particularly on a Sunday afternoon) and the fact that the Knights have plenty to play for. The Titans, not so much, and I really need to stop tipping them. I'm a slow learner.

Verdict – Knights by 14

Result – Knights 36 defeated Titans 14

Sydney Roosters vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Allianz Stadium

The Raiders pulled off a genuine upset knocking off the defending premiers last week, but taking that form on the road is often the challenge. This year they've won just three games away from home, and their last away win was back in round 13 against the Dolphins (and they were pretty lucky there). This will be harder, and the Roosters are yet to lose to a team outside the top eight all season. They have already accounted for the Raiders comfortably in round 12 (44-16). If that was the result in Canberra, it's likely we'll see a similar result at the Roosters favourite venue.

Verdict – Roosters by 22

Result – Raiders 14 defeated Roosters 12

Wally Lewis - round twenty six selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • COWBOYS vs Storm
  • BULLDOGS vs Sea Eagles
  • PANTHERS vs Rabbitohs
  • Eels vs DRAGONS
  • Dolphins vs BRONCOS
  • SHARKS vs Warriors
  • KNIGHTS vs Titans
  • ROOSTERS vs Raiders

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 25. The Melbourne Storm and Tigerholic appear to have leads that will be hard to run down. The Storm are definitely minor premiers, but Tigerholic still has some work to do to hold off a hungry pack of tipsters on his tail.

Congrats to our top scorer for the round, TigerGirl, with 7 from 8. That's 15 from 16 for TigerGirl over the last two rounds. Outstanding work there, and it's great to see the young Tigers starting to show some good signs.

As always, if anyone notices any issues with the scoring, just let me know.

All the best

The Thinker

EsraStar's picture

The Broncos need to sign Sam Walker.

newbie from perth's picture

Hey Frens,

@ MGM Yeah, looked at those links you provided last week regarding Annesley’s explanation on the “accidental” obstruction and you’ve hit the nail on the head when you question the accidental (unintentional) aspect of all infringements. By his reasoning, anything unintentional should be disregarded. It’s a difficult one I must admit as the only one I have a problem with is an accidental head high. In those cases I reckon you still give the penalty and if there’s a “report” the judiciary should deem it accidental and throw it out. Anything else that’s “accidental” gets penalised, end of story. Some may disagree with that but that’s how I see it.

Regarding that article of 3 years ago from Buzz, yeah I remember that Eels & Panthers match. At the time I thought (knew) the Eels were dudded by Ashley Clown. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s an absolute waste of time. This isn’t coming from a Roosters tragic, but I get concerned every time he referees a Roosters game as he loves giving it to us. Thank God we don’t have him on Sunday.

That end bit of Buzz’s article lays out the shortcomings of the Clown perfectly. It’s all there documented for historical posterity. Yeah, the Clown gets my vote for number 1 bumpkin for sure. Finally, just like to say that Belinda is one who knows her stuff. I wasn’t convinced when she first came onboard but yeah, a huge fan of hers now.

@ EsraStar - your comment on Sam Walker … Blashphemy! 😂

OK, let’s do this thing …

Cowboys vs. Storm @ Townsville
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

There’s some big “outs” for the Storm as you’d expect. I wonder if that will make any difference to their “system” this week. The bookies and the ratings are saying the Cowboys win this at home. They might be right (just) … Cowboys by 4.

Bulldogs vs. Manly @ Accor
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs

The Bulldogs just keep on getting the job done (which is good) but they will have to lose one sooner or later. While Manly have been semi-disappointing lately, I reckon they’re a chance here … Manly by 6.

Panthers vs. Rabbitohs @ BlueBet
Probability @ 80-20
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

The Panthers are less potent than previous years and not sure if they can win the big one this year but I’m fairly certain they’ll bounce back at home this week. The Rabbitohs are a train wreck … Panthers by 14.

Eels vs. Dragons @ CommBank
Probability @ 45-55
Ladder Position = Dragons
Bookies Favourite = Dragons

The Dragons are being talked up in this one but they disappointed last week and the door is open enough for the Eels to win this at home. Dunno, got a feeling the Eels might just lift and play for some pride in this one … Eels by 6.

Dolphins vs. Broncos @ Suncorp
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

I don’t think the Dolphins have much of a chance here but I’m gonna tip them anyway due to the “promise” I made some weeks ago. Makes no sense I know but still … Dolphins by 4.

Sharks vs. Warriors @ the Bermuda Triangle
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

I can’t see any positives for the Warriors here. At least they’ll get a guaranteed 2 points in Round 27 💪 😂. Given the way the Sharks played last week and the fact they’re playing at home, they should get up Saturday night … Sharks by 8.

Knights vs. Titans @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights

The Titans will be stiffer competition for the Knights than the Rabbitohs were last week so I’m thinking this might be a 50/50 proposition. The Knights have a very skinny chance of making the 8 so I think they’ll play accordingly … Knights by 8.

Roosters vs. Raiders @ Allianz
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Yes, I realise the Raiders knocked off the Panthers last week but not sure if they can replicate the effort against the best attacking side in the competition. I’m assuming the Roosters’ class edge will get them home … Roosters by 10. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Bye: Tigers.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Can’t remember if I’ve put this up before (I think maybe I have) but it won’t hurt to put it up again. Rock classic from my yoof …

https://youtu.be/2KPEHohJMuw

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

Rob181's picture

Now that would be a sensational signing...

MGM's picture

@ Newbie ,
Thanks for looking at those links And for responding.
Yes, I agree Ashley Klown should take the wooden spoon but Disregard Sutton has certainly given him a run for his money :-)

Newbie , you seem to be a kind and diplomatic soul, and I think you have misread my feelings on Annesley's defense of the fools in the bunker re "unintentional" infractions , in this case ,an unintentional obstruction.... they even pre-empted this farcical interpretation of our rules (presumably so that I could come to a Slow boil) , by describing Liam Martin Stepping on Top Of Blaize Talagi's foot as "the Feet Collide" and slippery Graham uses those same deceitful words.
Don't fall for it mate.
There Are NO Rules of our game that come with an "unintentional" clause ... EVEN 'accidental offside' is penalized. ...THINK about this
...each team will , on average ,have five knock-ons in a match (just to keep the math simple) = 10 per match = 2,160 per year .....Please find me 1 , just ONE , that was intentional.

The Thinker's picture

Payne Haas a starter this weekend

Deine Mariner out with illness

The Thinker's picture

The Gambaro Hotel on Caxton Street in Brisbane is set to be officially renamed as:

The Beetson

Very nice

The Thinker's picture

Plenty of changes for the Dolphins by the looks of things:

Hammer to centre, Fuller to fullback, Halves will be Averillo and O'Sullivan, Katoa on the bench, and some suggestions Marshall-King and Pangai Jnr will play.

MGM's picture

Panthers v Rabbitohs .... PETER GOUGH !... 62nd minute
Peter has shown us how to go from the Sublime to the Ridiculous , from one sad extreme to another.
Now he is calling text book passes (from Wighton to his winger for a dead certain runaway try... Tyrone Munro's third for the night) .... f o r w a r d ... even when his linesman was right in line (Gough was nowhere near) and didn't Look like raising his flag.
The saddest thing about it is that if anyone deserved a hat-trick tonight it's young Tyrone Munro who's mother and uncle passed away on Wednesday and he made the excruciating decision , at the urging of his family , to play tonight.

Darryl Williams's picture

Any chance we can clone some GOOD Refs in time for the finials. Watched 2 games & lisitned to the other seems that closer to the finials the worse the whistle blowers get. Wait & see how many games in the finials will be lost due to poor decisions. I realise it would be hard to referee a game with glasses on but the bunker has no excuse.
PLEASE HELP !

MGM's picture

I actually have sympathy for on-field referees ..... so much going on for them even without their ear-piece in !... multiple decisions to make every 5 seconds sometimes , and they're only human.
That is why they need to be able to rely on their touch judges and the Bunker and I agree, Darryl ,the Bunker has very little excuse for getting it wrong.
Today in Eels v Dragons , in the last 15 minutes especially , the touch judges may as well have Not Even Been There !... forward passes Galore and on the Jon Stone side he just doesn't keep up with play , jogging along while the players are sprinting , no wonder he missed Ravalawa tossing the ball forward over another players head to his no18 who passes forward to Sloan to score . By the time Sloan takes the "pass" touchie Stone is a mile back.
But the Gong goes to Chris Sutton on the other sideline , who is no better in that role than he is in the Bunker , right in line of Two More forward passes that almost saw Lomax score and allowed Dragons to maintain possession and go on to score again.
It's a hot mess and changes need to be made if the NRL wants to keep it's fan base .
Maybe they could start with requiring touchies to be fit enough and keen enough to keep up with play and empower them to be brave enough to call out infringements the ref has missed.

MGM's picture

KUDOS Shaun Johnson .... What a way to exit your career in the game... with a last minute win ! I wish you'd have got that final conversion , but too much going through your mind at the time I suppose.
You just cost me the only bet I looked like winning this weekend , hahaha!
(Sharks Really blew that !)

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