South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Accor Stadium
The Storm don't lose two games in a row very often, which spells trouble for the 15th placed Rabbitohs. Cody Walker returns which will help, but he was playing when the Rabbitohs took on the Storm on ANZAC Day, and the Storm cracked the half century that day (54-20). The Storm will be without Eliesa Katoa, and if I'm any judge he's the most under-rated player in the NRL right now. He's a significant out, but Kamikamica returns to bolster the forwards, and I can only see one possible outcome here.
Verdict – Storm by 14
Result – Storm 28 defeated Rabbitohs 16
Gold Coast Titans vs Cronulla Sharks – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium
You don't need me to convince you that the Titans can beat the Sharks, because they already did. They did it only a month ago, and a month ago the Sharks had Nicho Hynes and the Titans didn't have Jayden Campbell. The only game the Titans have lost since then was to Manly at Brookvale, so they're arguably going better now than they were in July. And they have momentum, scoring 7 tries in the second half against the Broncos at this same ground less than a week ago. I just hope they can keep it going.
Verdict – Titans by 7
Result – Sharks 44 defeated Titans 0
Parramatta Eels vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – CommBank Stadium
To give the Panthers current reign of dominance some context, the teams they defeated in the last three NRL grand finals are currently 14th, 15th and 16th on the NRL ladder. Yikes. On Friday night they face the team they defeated in the 2022 grand final. The Eels have probably done enough to dodge the wooden spoon following their surprise victory over the Warriors in Auckland last week, but a win here would all but lock that in. Meanwhile, the Panthers are biting at the heels of the Storm, and may have their eyes on a minor premiership. Daine Laurie returns this week to bolster their line-up. The Panthers were too good when these sides met in round two, and I'm expecting a similar result.
Verdict – Panthers by 7
Result – Panthers 36 defeated Eels 34
Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium
10th faces 7th in what looks like one of the more difficult contests to assess this round. The Sea Eagles, with a favourable points differential compared to the pack of teams just below them, will just about lock up a top eight finish with a win on Saturday. The return of Olakau'atu, Croker and Hopoate will help, as will the inclusion of Garrick and Saab who both went off with concussions in round 21. For the Raiders, Ethan Strange returns after a break last week, and while Smithies has been named I've heard from some quarters he won't line up. Something to keep an eye on. The Raiders prevailed when these sides met in round 9 at Brookvale (26-24), but the Sea Eagles should be nice and fresh after the bye last week. Daytime conditions are likely to suit the visitors and I'll tip them to turn the tables.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4
Result – Sea Eagles 46 defeated Raiders 24
North Queensland Cowboys vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
The Cowboys will be thinking about a top four finish, while the Broncos won't have given up entirely on sneaking into the top eight. The mathemagicians will tell you they can do it, but I would remind the mathemagicians that the Broncos have conceded 87 points in their last two games, and 36 points in their last 40 minutes. They aren't playing like a top eight side, and they don't deserve to be there. That they've lost both Haas and Mam to what are likely to be season-ending injuries won't help either. The Broncos have named Rogers in the halves, but Reece Walsh has been training their during the week. Assume Sailor slots in at fullback if the training goes well. No major changes for the Cowboys, with Cotter returning from concussion protocols after one of the more brutal head knocks I've seen. The Cowboys haven't had much trouble scoring points this season, and the Broncos are leaking like one of those boats made out of beer cans. A final scorecard of 40ish to 20ish looks likely here.
Verdict – Cowboys by 14
Result – Broncos 42 defeated Cowboys 18
St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Saturday night – Netstrata Jubilee Stadium
The Dragons made a statement last weekend, and that was statement was "you can beat us in Melbourne for 25 years in a row, but you can't beat us in Melbourne for 26 years in a row". Well done, Dragons...it's always nice to break a hoodoo. I imagine this game is well and truly sold out already, and so it should be. There's some talk they should move the game to a larger venue, including chatter from Bulldogs peeps who (thinker checks notes) played a sold out game at Belmore last weekend. Oh well, it was worth a try. The Dragons get home ground advantage but I'm picking the Bulldogs on Saturday night. They've been a little more consistent than the Dragons, and its hard to forget the result when these sides met in round 12. For those that might have forgotten, the Bulldogs won 44-12. This should be closer.
Verdict – Bulldogs by 4
Result – Bulldogs 28 defeated Dragons 10
Redcliffe Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium
If you were to accuse me of being pro-dolphin, you would be right. And it's entirely possible that my affection for these terrific creatures and this terrific club has affected my judgement a little, but here this...the Dolphins are going to smash the Warriors on Sunday afternoon. They do have to back up following the flight home from Perth, but the Warriors have to travel almost as far from Auckland. Tevita Pangai Jnr is proving to be unpredictable on and off the field, letting the Dolphins know he's heading to France - perhaps he's been watching the Olympics and liked what he saw. He's been named to start on Sunday after withdrawing last last week, and he owes the Dolphins a decent performance or two before he jets off. The Dolphins were so short of troops last week they were about to ask for volunteers from the crowd in Perth, but despite all that, they racked up 34 points against a genuine premiership contender. Once again, they've been competitive and fallen just short. Something of a pattern in recent weeks, but they should find this easier, and daytime conditions should suit. The Warriors disappointed most of us last weekend. They've won 3 from 10 in Australia this season - given that record and their recent form, I'll take the Phins to win.
Verdict – Dolphins by 8
Result – Dolphins 34 defeated Warriors 32
Newcastle Knights vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – McDonald Jones Stadium
The Tigers can still avoid the wooden spoon but they'll need to win at least two of the their last four games to be any chance of that. Their run home means that isn't impossible, but it's unlikely. This is their last away game of the year - Newcastle on a Sunday afternoon isn't an easy road trip, particularly against an opponent still in the contest for a top eight finish.
Verdict – Knights by 7
Result – Knights 34 defeated Tigers 18
Wally Lewis - round twenty three selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- Rabbitohs vs STORM
- Titans vs SHARKS
- Eels vs PANTHERS
- Raiders vs SEA EAGLES
- COWBOYS vs Broncos
- Dragons vs BULLDOGS
- DOLPHINS vs Warriors
- KNIGHTS vs Tigers
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 22. Plenty of solid scoring, with almost half of us top scoring with 6 from 8. For most of us, it was the Eels and the Dragons that surprised us.
As always, if you notice any issues with the scores just let me know,
I'll have my previews and selections for round 23 published on Thursday.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
Nothing much to report other than I’m 2 days into my 2 weeks off and really enjoying getting out of bed late. My beloved Roosters get the bye this week which will keep us 3rd on the ladder for another week 💪. OK, let’s do this thing …
Rabbitohs vs. Storm @ Accor
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
The Storm’s loss last week was a mere aberration. They’ll bounce back bigly. Storm by 16.
Titans vs. Sharks @ Cbus
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Titans
With the exception of the Dolphins, the Titans haven’t beaten much since Round 19. However, they did beat the Sharks in Round 18 so that’s something. My tip here is based on the fact that the Sharks will remember that loss and will want revenge. It’s possible that my logic is flawed though. Sharks by 4.
Eels vs. Panthers @ CommBank
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
The Eels showed improvement last week in winning over in NZ but this will show whether that improvement continues against the side sitting 2nd on the ladder. The Panthers should be far too strong you would think. Panthers by 16.
Raiders vs. Manly @ GIO Stadium
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly
This could go either way as far as I see it. Manly should be nice and fresh after their bye last week but the Raiders (even though they lost last week) gave me the impression they’re putting in a dinkum effort trying to get into the 8. As I said, this could go either way but I think I’ll stick with the class side as I see it. Manly by 4.
Cowboys vs. Broncos @ Townsville
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
As I said last week, if the Broncos didn’t win, I was off them for the rest of the year. Given my luck in the tipping this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got up here. It’s a real shame the Broncos’ year has turned out like it has but it should be pretty obvious who I’m tipping in this one. Cowboys by 8.
Dragons vs. Bulldogs @ Kogarah
Probability @ 35-65
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs
This is another tough one for me. You can’t ignore the Dragons’ great effort in knocking off the competition leaders last week and the fact they’re at home Saturday night. The Bulldogs have the belief and keep on doing what’s required to win games. The Dragons will be high in confidence but I’m wondering if they can replicate the effort. The Bulldogs could be due for a loss but I’ll tip them anyway. Bulldogs by 4.
Dolphins vs. Warriors @ Suncorp
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Dolphins
Bookies Favourite = Dolphins
The Dolphins were pretty good against the Roosters last week, managing to score 34 points in their loss. The Warriors on the other hand were pretty average at home against a struggling Eels. This looks fairly simple. Dolphins by 12.
Knights vs. Tigers @ McDonald Jones
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Knights
Bookies Favourite = Knights
The Knights were good enough against the Panthers last week and this match sees them face a side that are a huge drop in class compared to last week. The poor ol’ Tigers seem set for another “annus horribilus” and I can’t see them causing an upset here. Knights by 12.
Bye: Roosters.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Something here that most of you might not expect from me. This guy is one of my faves from the 70s and more known for his love songs rather than this genre. Simple lyrics that tells a great story. Really sad that he suffered a heart attack on his 60th birthday and died the next morning some 16 years ago. RIP brother.
https://youtu.be/NmAzzP7nSKQ
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Sammy Hawan on
Please help me with tips for this week I'm struggling to win since round one 2024
Submitted by Veronica John on
Please help me with my tips for this week on this round 23
Submitted by manyana on
Hi all, I hate it when everyone, (including most of the odds) all tip the same teams, and I agree with them. I'm guessing that there will be a couple of upsets, but I haven't a clue which teams will upset most tipsters. That's footy tipping!! Hopefully, for a change, everyone is correct this week.
Cheers, manyana.
Submitted by Bronco Legend on
Hi Thinker,
Is it too late to change my tips to sharks tonight?
Cant believe the score line atm.
Cheers Broncos Legend.
Submitted by Mary S on
Hi Manyana,
Not too late for you to put your tips in for the remaining games!
A lot of us have been caught already by the result of the Titans/Sharks match and currently Eels are set on upsetting the Panthers!!!
Cheers,
Mary