Round twenty two selections

Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys – Thursday night – Leichhardt Oval

Some wise old heads return for the Tigers in Klemmer and Olam as the Tigers attention focuses on avoiding the wooden spoon. There are really only two team that can run last this season, and they get to play each other in their final game of the season. The Tigers still have a bye up their sleeve, and an easier run home than the Eels, so I think they can haul themselves up to 15th. Their challenge on Thursday has been made a little easier with the injuries to Cotter and Taumalolo, but the Cowboys have beaten two top eight teams in a row and are likely to find this easier, just as they did when they racked up 42 points against the Tigers in round 12.

Verdict – Cowboys by 7

Result – Cowboys 48 defeated Tigers 30

New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Go Media Stadium

For those that missed the news, not only have the Warriors sold out this game on Friday night, they have already sold out their final home game of the regular season against the Bulldogs in round 25. This is the first time in rugby league history, anywhere on the planet, that a team has sold out every home game in a season. Not bad for a team currently 12th on the ladder, and a clear sign that the popularity of rugby league is on the rise in New Zealand. I haven't given up on the Warriors sneaking into the top eight this season. They have a better points differential than the teams directly above them on the ladder and they still have a bye round ahead of them. That solitary point they collected in round 6 against the Sea Eagles just might get them over the line. Both the Warriors and Eels are trying to manage long injury lists at the minute, but the Warriors welcome back Johnson and Nicoll-Klokstad on Friday. Johnson hasn't had a terrific season, but the Warriors will appreciate his goal-kicking. The Warriors have won 3 of their last 4 at home, and that loss was to the Storm. This is an easier assignment.

Verdict – Warriors by 8

Result – Eels 30 defeated Warriors 20

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Friday night – HBF Park, Perth

My ongoing affection for the Dolphins has proven costly in recent weeks, as they continue to compete but fall just short more often than not. Last week they led 14-0 and looked comfortable against the Titans, but they couldn't trouble the scorers after the 20th minute. Isaiya Katoa, still only 20, bears much of the responsibility for leading this team around, and it's a lot to ask. He's terrific, and he's a star, and in the years ahead he will get better and better at managing games and steering a path to victory. Note the neutral location, in what seems more and more likely to be the home of the next team to join the NRL competition. Also note the return of Joseph Manu for the Roosters - a handy addition to a roster that's already brimming with talent.

Verdict – Roosters by 14

Result – Roosters 40 defeated Dolphins 34

Gold Coast Titans vs Brisbane Broncos – Saturday afternoon – CBus Super Stadium

The mathemagicians will tell you the Broncos can still make the top eight this year, but I dislike Maths and I detest Magic...and it's not going to happen. These sides met back in round 12 where the Titans surprised the Broncos with a 36-34 victory. Since then, the Broncos have won just the one game (and lost six). Last week, more than 42,000 fronted up to watch them get utterly humbled. Despite that poor performance, the Broncos have made just one change to the side (dropping Cobbo...which I won't comment on because I don't want to get in trouble). Meanwhile, the Titans have clawed themselves safely away from the clutches of the wooden spoon, racking up wins against the Warriors, Sharks, Eels and Dolphins as they go. They'll be playing at home, and they get to go above the Broncos on the ladder if they beat them again. I think they will.

Verdict – Titans by 4

Result – Titans 46 defeated Broncos 18

Melbourne Storm vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday night – AAMI Park

It's been a quarter of a century since the Dragons beat the Storm in Melbourne, and the Storm have won 17 of their past 18 games at AAMI Park. Last week the Dragons played the team running second and conceded 46 points. A few weeks prior they played the team running third and conceded 42. There may be a reason to tip the Dragons on Saturday night, but I can't find it, and I don't want to spend any more time looking for it.

Verdict – Storm by 16

Result – Dragons 18 defeated Storm 16

Cronulla Sharks vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Saturday night – PointsBet Stadium

Alright, I give up. The Sharks are going to make the top eight this season. They may even make the top four - they have just one game against a top eight team for the rest of the regular season (and that team is 7th). Can they give the finals series a shake? I wouldn't have thought so, but they'll be there, so they get credit for that. They're playing at home on Saturday night against the 15th placed Rabbitohs. The return of Murray will give them a boost, but last week they looked like a side that have resigned to their fate this season. Perhaps they just didn't want to be at Canberra on a cold Sunday night. I don't blame them for that, but they probably don't want to be at Cronulla on a cold Saturday night either.

Verdict – Sharks by 8

Result – Sharks 20 defeated Rabbitohs 6

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – BlueBet Stadium

I doubt anyone forgot how good Nathan Cleary is, but he's certainly reminded everyone during the last fortnight. He's backed up his extra-time heroics against the Dolphins with a game for the ages against the Dragons - three tries, two try assists, seven conversions (from 8 attempts), 242 metres with the ball tucked under the arm, 232 metres booting the ball down the paddock, and five tackle breaks. He may not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's a nice cup of tea. He's down a few more troops this weekend, with Fisher-Harris and Laurie unavailable, but we all know the Panthers have plenty of depth. The Knights probably need to win this to keep their finals hopes alive, but I doubt that they can. The last time they played they were flogged by the Broncos, and that form is looking a little bit flimsy.

Verdict – Panthers by 13

Result – Panthers 22 defeated Knights 14

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Belmore Sports Ground

You can't get a ticket to this game and I'm not surprised. The believers will be out in force at Belmore as the Bulldogs can all but lock in a top eight finish with a win on Sunday. A repeat of their effort last week will get them the points at home. The Raiders have won just 3 of 8 games away from home this season - one of those was way back in round one, and the most recent wins were by narrow margins. This will test them.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 8

Result – Bulldogs 22 defeated Raiders 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty two selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Tigers vs COWBOYS
  • WARRIORS vs Eels
  • Dolphins vs ROOSTERS
  • Titans vs BRONCOS
  • STORM vs Dragons
  • SHARKS vs Rabbitohs
  • PANTHERS vs Knights
  • BULLDOGS vs Raiders

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 21. Plenty of us got 5 or 6 this round, but only one of us picked 7. Congrats to GMac, our top scorer for the round. Three of our tipsters have cracked the ton this week...three of our longest standing tipsters too.

As always, if you notice any issues with the scoring, just let me know.

We are back to a Thursday night kick-off in round 22, so I'll have my previews and selections published on Wednesday.

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

Hi Thinker,
I see we are tipping either Dolphins or ROOST this week!!!

Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Mary S

Good grief what have I done there - looks like all my chickens have come home to roost.

I'll see if I can fix that :-)

All the best

The Thinker

Titus's picture

I tip Dolphins

newbie from perth's picture

Hey Frens,

OK, no muckin' around, let’s do this thing …

Tigers vs. Cowboys @ Leichhardt Oval
Probability @ 30-70
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys

The Tigers are struggling, whereas the Cowboys impressed last week against the Sharks. Barring a big upset, the Cowboys should have the edge in class here. Cowboys by 12.

Warriors vs. Eels @ Mount Smart
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Warriors
Bookies Favourite = Warriors

The Warriors managed a win last week at home but they’re still not playing the best they’re capable of. The Eels have been disappointing this year and they’re chances here look slim. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if they got up here, but I’ll stick with the home side. Warriors by 8.

Dolphins vs. Roosters @ HBF Perth
Probability @ 25-75
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

It looks to me that the Dolphins are going off the boil form-wise, sort of like how my tipping’s going. They should never have lost last week but they did. The Roosters on the other hand are maintaining their form with the exception of that effort against the Storm a couple of weeks ago. Unfortunately, I won’t be at the game 😥 but still tipping my BBB. Roosters by 10. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Titans vs. Broncos @ Cbus
Probability @ 40-60
Ladder Position = Broncos
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

The Titans were very good last week but they only played one half of good football. I think Des has a problem if he always has to give ‘em a bollocking before they get focussed. The Broncos this year are a complete and utter mystery to everyone I would imagine. Seriously, I’m giving the Broncos one last chance here, lose this and I’m off them for the rest of the year. Broncos by 4.

Storm vs. Dragons @ AAMI
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

The Storm are sitting on top of the ladder for a reason. The Dragons are sitting in 10th with a -92 PD for a reason. See, footy tipping isn’t that hard sometimes. Storm by 14.

Sharks vs. Rabbitohs @ The Bermuda Triangle
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

I’m finding it hard to trust the Sharks these days. The Rabbitohs sucked me in last week and I couldn’t quite believe the effort (or lack of) they dished up against the Raiders. Zero confidence in both these sides but home ground and talent on paper must count for something. Sharks by 8.

Panthers vs. Knights @ BlueBet Stadium
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

The Panthers are back in the groove with the return of Cleary. The Knights are capable enough but I just can’t see that they have enough to get over the Chocolate Soldiers away from home. Panthers by 10.

Bulldogs vs. Raiders @ Belmore
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs

Both these sides come into this with very good wins last week. Comparing opposition in those wins last week you’d have to say the Bulldogs’ effort has more merit. The Bulldogs haven’t been doing much wrong and really like their style at the moment (especially last week) and can’t see any reason to jump off them. Bulldogs by 10.

Bye: Manly.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…

Yeah, something a little different this week. This is the re-mastered version of the 40 year old original. Boo-Yah!

https://youtu.be/8FH_9SlPTjg

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

The Thinker's picture

Eels have just announced that Blaize Talagi will be leaving the club. No news on where he is going just yet.

shotfromthehip's picture

what happened to my tips of last round? I got 5 out of 8.

The Thinker's picture

@shotfromthehip

I can't see your tips on the round 21 page. 

I will email you.

All the best

The Thinker

Chook_Dan's picture

Hi thinker.

Could I tip here please.

Cowboys, warriors, roosters, titans, storm, sharks, panthers, dogs.

MGM's picture

Hi thinker
cant see that my tips have registered so please take them here -
Cows , Warriors , Roosters , Titans , Storm , Sharks , Panthers , B/Dogs

Darryl Williams's picture

I wonder if the downfall of the Broncos has anything to do with the large amounts of money spent on top name players. The same thing happened a couple of years back when big money was being handed to some players . It must disharten the left out players who do not get large increases . It is a TEAM game & to win games all must play as a team. I remember when Milford joined the Broncos on a $5 million deal. & all I recall he done was help Hunt loose a grandfinal & for the several years after was a passenger. The last 5/8 they signed for big bucks has also been below his best since his agreement was signed. It should be banned from discussing contracts during the season . Players need to pay all their attention to playing the game & not have their managers disrupting their thaughts with the all mighty dollar !

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