Penrith Panthers (2nd) vs Sydney Roosters (3rd) – Friday night – Panthers Stadium
With team lists announced, we now know that Nathan Cleary is ready to rumble. We all know how disciplined he is, so I'm sure he's match-fit and while we may not see peak Cleary on Friday night, I doubt he'll be far from it. Clearly his inclusion is a big one. These sides have already met once this season, where the Panthers prevailed away from home by 22-16. That sounds close, but the Chooks scored two late tries in the game to narrow the margin. Tellingly, that Panthers side didn't have Nathan Cleary in it, or Fisher-Harris, or Sorensen. They'll all be in the starting thirteen here. Even more tellingly, that Roosters team in round four included Walker, Waerea-Hargreaves, Smith and Radley. That quartet were all in the starting thirteen in round four, but unavailable here. The Roosters poor recent record against the top two teams in the competition is well-known, and it's hard to ignore. Given that history, the injured players and the venue, I have to lean toward a Panthers victory. Regardless, the Panthers have been below their best in recent weeks, and if there is an upset this weekend, this is probably it.
Verdict – Panthers by 7
Result – Panthers 30 defeated Roosters 10
Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Cronulla Sharks (4th) – Saturday afternoon – AAMI Park
I'm sure the Sharks would prefer not to travel to Melbourne, but the trip won't have them quaking in their boots. They've been there once before this season, where they prevailed 25-18 in round 10. They'll genuinbely believe they can win this, and they can. That round 10 Sharks line-up had an entirely different halves combination of Atkinson and Brailey. Both have been terrific all year, but Hynes and Trindall is still an upgrade. The round 10 Storm lin-up didn't include Hughes, Papenhuyzen and Coates, so a few upgrades for the home side too. Notably, there's no AFL in Melbourne this weekend, no AFL game anywhere on the Saturday afternoon, and the Saturday night AFL game involves two teams the good people of Melbourne probably don't care about too much. I don't mention the AFL much here because I don't understand it (and have no interest in learning), but I mention it now because the Storm are likely to have a large pro-Melbourne crowd (perhaps 25,000+) giving them a decent nudge. 25000 doesn't sound like a huge number, but it's twice the size of a Cronulla home game, and it can make a difference. This final (arguably) involves the two teams that are in the best current form. The most recent loss for the Storm was against the Cowboys, and most of the team lining up on Saturday didn't even get on the plane to Townsville. Other recent wins include a win over Penrith at Penrith, and some absolute gap jobs over the Dolphins and Broncos. It's solid form, and perhaps a notch or two above the Sharks. An upset wouldn't surprise me, but:
Verdict – Storm by 4
Result – Storm 37 defeated Sharks 10
North Queensland Cowboys (5th) vs Newcastle Knights (8th) – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Rugby League is and always will be a team sport, but from time to time a team comes along with a player that elevates them above the ordinary. You don't even need me to tell you who I'm talking about. Last week, the Knights needed to win to play finals football, and win they did. They scored two tries against the Dolphins (which was enough), and Ponga set up both of them. To give the rest of the team due credit, their defence was terrific - if you only concede one try across 80 minutes of football, there's a very good chance you win. The Knights halves pairing of Cogger and Crossland doesn't strike fear into the hearts of opposition, but if Ponga fires, they don't have to. So the equation for the Cowboys is simple enough - limit the impact of Ponga and win the game. Luckily for them, they know a fair bit about the bloke, given he started his career with the Cowboys. The Knights defence was excellent against the Dolphins last week, but it's a lot easier at home in front of a bumper crowd on Old Boys day. Can they replicate that, away from home, in the heat and humidity of Townsville in mid-September, against a team that have scored 220 points in their last six games? Additionally, can their goal-kicking match the ridiculous recent record of Valentine Holmes? Ponga kicked 4 from 7 against the Titans two weeks ago, and that could prove the difference.
Verdict – Cowboys by 4
Result – Cowboys 28 defeated Knights 16
Canterbury Bulldogs (6th) vs Manly Sea Eagles (7th) – Sunday afternoon – Accor Stadium
Usually finals football means the best of the best, but here we have a contest between two sides that conceded 40 or more points last week. Worrying signs, and sounds like a recipe for a high scoring affair on Sunday afternoon. If this match-up sounds familiar it should, because these sides met at the very same venue just a fortnight ago. The line-ups are near enough to identical too, but for a wingman for each side (Saab with an injury, Addo-Carr for reasons yet to be determined). It does feel like the Bulldogs are missing some muscle in the middle, which has proven costly in recent weeks. It would make sense for the Sea Eagles to repeat what they did last time. There's a fair chance it will deliver a similar result. As for the Addo-Carr situation - one never knows how a team will respond to such things until you see their response. They'll either be galvanised or distracted. We should know in the first 10-20 minutes on Sunday. Either way there'll be a fair crowd at the game, far bigger than the other finals, so it's a spectacle worthy of your attention.
Verdict – Sea Eagles by 7
Result – Sea Eagles 24 defeated Bulldogs 22
Wally Lewis - week one finals selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning
- PANTHERS (2nd) vs Roosters (3rd)
- STORM (1st) vs Sharks (4th)
- COWBOYS (5th) vs Knights (8th)
- Bulldogs (6th) vs SEA EAGLES (7th)
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings finals fans
These are our games for week one. We have to line up the hamsters in the tipping machine before the tipping form is ready, but we will have it up and running as soon as we can.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
Note the late switch in the schedule
Cowboys moved to Saturday night - probably preferred by Cowboys
Bulldogs moved to Sunday to avoid a clash with the AFL game on the Saturday - probably preferred by Bulldogs too.
Everybody wins.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Morning Thinker
It appears you haven't added Big Pete's score for round 27.
Tiger
Submitted by The Thinker on
Morning football fans
I have updated the final NRL ladder for the season and the tipping comp after round 27.
A shout out to NuL1F3, who not only top-scored the round but found 8 out of 8. Outstanding tipping there.
For the first time in many weeks we have a new leader - Scott M taking a one point lead over Tigerholic with a solid 7 from 8. If the Sharks are winning, Scott M does well.
As always, if anyone notices any issues with the scores just let me know. We will have the tipping form for this weekend on this page as soon as we can.
@Tigerholic
I've added BigPete now...I had to take the kids to school half way through updating the scores :-)
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Mary S on
Morning Thinker,
You need to alter this one in Wally Lewis' tips-
Cowboys (5th) vs Dolphins (8th)
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Morning Tiger - has been a very interesting season this one. Thank you for your observation as I also noticed it and figured - no need to worry about Manly followers. Well that performance at Brookvale was a disaster.
Talk about 8 out of their 9 home games this year being sell-outs - the fans deserve better.
Sharks are a funny team to tip with, as even last year they cost me quite a few times.
The season isn't over yet and there is still time to advance. The Show is never over, until the...........sings.
Cheers and keep well
Big Pete
Submitted by Gummy Sharks on
Thank you Tigerholic. It was just a bit of banter. Am actually happy to see that the Tigers are heading in the right direction re signing of Luai for next year, already signing of Justin Olam and Api. Remember many moons ago Wests signed a player named Ronnie Gibbs. To my eye they didn't get the best out of him because most of their players at the time couldn't keep up with him. Have a slight fear that might be the case with the Tiges as well with Luai. I guess we'll see. Good luck with the rest of the tipping. Good win Sharks yesterday but don't see them as a serious premiership contender this year. Out in straight sets the most likely outcome. However, I think the signing of Fonua-Blake is the most significant player addition they've made in the last 20 years or so. He'll make far more difference than the always running sideways Nicho and might fire up some serious attacking skills in others that are currently lying dormant. Here's hoping. Storm v Roosters grand final to me .
Submitted by NuL1F3 on
Thank you Thinker, and in the last possible round too! It has been such a struggle this year, but I don't think I have ever been this high up the leader board, goes to show it's been a struggle for most of us.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Thinker can you consider giving 2 bonus points next year for tipsters who pick the lot it is a part of many comps and can drive you up the ladder.
Submitted by tigerholic on
Rocket Ryan
I've gotta love your desperation, the only thing that could drive you up the ladder would be a Chinook Helicopter with a huge payload.
May I suggest that you mirror your tips with the best tipsters in myself, Scotty M, Bigpete and Walby, JP92 as well.
I've said this before, I'm happy to take you under my wing and try and turn you into a decent tipster just like Bellyache does with simple players he moulds, although I think even he would struggle turning you into a decent tipster.
I can see you are trying to be the inaugural winner of the Dribbler of the week award (ha,ha,ha, you are a funny man )
I have to go and wipe my tears away from laughing, so good.
Tiger
Submitted by tigerholic on
Hey Gummy
Thanks for your reply, I've seen some on this site over the years that can't handle the sledge, banter of whatever you want to call it.
I play golf twice a week and if you don't cop a bit each round, something is amiss.
Good luck moving forward, perhaps you can assist Rocket climbing the ladder next year.
Tiger
Submitted by Mary S on
@ Tiger,
I have to echo your last line - "I have to go and wipe my tears away from laughing, so good."🥲🥲
The "have a go at each other" has been missing from the site for some time -just waiting now to see how Rocket responds!!
Loved it,
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Tigerholic
Some very nice work from you here. Well done, sir.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
We all agree Tiger you are hilarious and a self appointed great tipster how about you put your tips in before us and we will make sure you don't change them as is your form.
Submitted by Mary S on
@ Rocket & Tiger,
Didn't you change 3 from your original pick in R25 Rocket? (1 successful, 2 not), Tiger changed 1 successfully in the same round and I know I changed 2 - 1 successfully, 1 not.
It's all part of the fun (and learning) of trying to tip successfully in this frustrating/amazing game.
More fun to come!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by Anonymous on
Hi there,
This is DragonsFanboy. I am having problems logging in, can you put in my tips as follows:
Roosters
Storm
Cowboys
Bulldogs
Cheers!!!!!!
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Dragons Fanboy
I've added your tips for you now.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by The Thinker on
I try not to put the boot into the NRL too often...I think they do a pretty good job when it comes to a lot of things...but here goes:
One of the reasons the 2023 grand final was such a belter is because the referee nailed it.
That Adam Gee hasn't been named as one of the four referees this weekend, has me utterly baffled.
All the best
The Thinker
Submitted by a on
Yes Adam gee should of been named
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Well done Scott m on regaining the lead now the old conundrum club loyalty or game favourite in keeping the lead.
Tigerholic will be on the storm for sure.
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
As you all know, we’re heading towards the pointy end of the season now. This weekend two teams get a second chance if they lose and for two teams it’s adios, sayonara, goodbye and see you next year. It should be entertaining. OK, let’s do this thing …
Panthers vs. Roosters @ BlueBet
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
We all know the Panthers haven’t been as dominant this year as they have been in the past 3 years or so but this is Finals footy and you’d expect them to step up a gear, especially playing at home. The Roosters have been hit with injuries at the wrong time of the year and this will be a huge ask for them to cause an upset Friday night.
The Roosters have been the best attacking side this year and that’s one of the few positives they have in this match. On the other hand, Penrith have (I think) the best defensive record this year which is gonna make it tough for the Chooks. The Roosters’ record this year against the very good sides is pretty darn ordinary and they’re down on troops but I’m gonna tip with the heart in this one … Roosters to cause the upset and sneak in by 4. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Storm vs. Sharks @ AAMI
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
The Storm have clearly been the best side in the competition this year and due to the professional system they have down there in Melbourne, they just keep getting the job done, even when they’re missing key players. Yes, the Sharks definitely have the ability to get up here but their form hasn’t been all that “consistent” this year for mine.
The Storm have a decided class advantage here and barring unforeseen circumstances, I can’t see them getting beaten, especially at home ... Storm by 8.
Cowboys vs. Knights @ Townsville
Probability @ 65-35
Ladder Position = Cowboys
Bookies Favourite = Cowboys
The Cowboys have the better side (on paper anyway) and they have the added bonus of playing at home. The Knights are riding high on momentum but I’m not sure whether last week’s “finals style” win against the Dolphins is a positive or not. Given the Cowboys’ propensity to switch off in games, I’m giving the Knights a big chance in this one. I think what it boils down to is who has the class to knuckle down and get the job done.
Heading into this match, the Cowboys have won 7 of their last 9 matches, beating the Panthers, Bulldogs (twice), Sharks and Storm in the process, whereas the Knights have won their last 3 against lesser opposition, and scraped into the eight. This should go to script … Cowboys by 8.
Bulldogs vs. Manly @ Accor
Probability @ 60-40
Ladder Position = Bulldogs
Bookies Favourite = Bulldogs
Both these sides got “slapped” last week so I’m thinking this could go either way. I have a soft spot for the Bulldogs but their recent form is a little worrying. The Bulldogs have only lost 2 games at home all year (Round 26 and 27). Interestingly, the Round 26 loss was against Manly. Ignoring that, the Bulldogs have been excellent all year and I wouldn’t be surprised if the intensity ramped up this week.
Manly’s form has been a bit up and down recently so I’m not sure how they’ll execute this week. I’ve learnt over the years not to underestimate Manly however and they won’t be easy to beat, given the stakes. I’ve got a gut feeling the Bulldogs, after waiting so long to play finals footy, will be more desperate to go through ... Bulldogs by 6.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
Hey Thinker, good to see you were all having a great time at your place getting’ down to this one. The old guy with the balding head … is he a relation of yours at all? You know me, just kiddin’ 😂
https://youtu.be/6C5O3BTOD4Y
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by Esra Star on
Seems like Addo-Carr has been lying through his teeth.
Submitted by The Thinker on
@Esra Star
Some might say he was Joshing
I'll see myself out
Submitted by Esra Star on
Lol,,,close the door after you.
Submitted by Rocket Ryan on
Any late changes Mary.
Submitted by Mary S on
@ Rocket
Just back from dinner to celebrate my son's 50th birthday. I've done a quick check and there are 1 or 2 changes but looks like most had decided on the 4.
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by David.C-Manly1st. on
Hi,
Could not enter my tips as I could not find where to do them.
Penrith, Melbourne, North Qld and Manly.
Cheers
David
Submitted by MGM on
Mary , you and "a" have a right to feel ripped off at half-time tonight.
I've watched over & over that first try for the knights ... 2 metres forward the pass from Ponga to Jayden Brailey ... a steam train doesn't have That much momentum :-)
Submitted by Mary S on
@ MGM,
All Cowboys supporters/fans/tipsters will be ecstatic with the result of tonight's game which had some rough patches and some luck!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by MGM on
Bulldogs are back to some top form in this match with the Sea Eagles.
So why does the bunker feel they need a helping hand.
@22 mins the bunker pulls up play for a tackle that the ref had let go. ... Note to bunker - the clue is in the title - a late tackle has to be lAte !.. LATE nOt a split second !..Of course Connor Tracey stayed down , the tackle from Talau was thunderous and perfectly legal.... If Tracey had dummied , the buzz would be all about how brilliant Talau is.
And just because they are called the Bulldogs doesn't excuse them for playing like grubby dogs (Mahoney, Curran, Crichton)...
At the 17min mark Tom Trbojevic catches a bomb and is tackled by Sexton and Crichton and during the tackle you can clearly see Crichton raise his fist in the air and slam it into Turbo's injured shoulder. It's one thing to target him (fair enough) and a whole other to do what Crichton did.
I actually used to like Crichton but ever since "nose-gate" I've watched him more closely and the verdict is there's too much Grub in him.
In the 37th minute when Ethan Bullemore scores his try Crichton still comes in late ,as Bullemore is rising to his feet, and knees him in the kidney region. .. I have replayed it a few times and it was totally unnecessary .. Crichton is careless at best but what I see is that he's out to hurt fellow players when he has the chance.
Submitted by MGM on
P.S.
Just like the Cowboys match , I started writing my comment at half-time. (haha)
Looks like poetic justice is alive and well.
May it remain so during the finals.
:-)
Submitted by Mary S on
MGM,
I agree on the "Grub" label!!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by The Thinker on
@David.C-Manly1st
I've added your tips in now. I couldn't give you the results for the first two games (which were already over), but I've given you the last two.
Nice finish for the Sea Eagles yesterday.
All the best
The Thinker
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