Melbourne Storm (2nd) vs Canterbury Bulldogs (3rd) – Friday night – AAMI Park

Two top four teams but I'm not convinced either are in top four form. The Storm have lost two in a row and, by Storm standards, hefty margins. More unsettling of their spine leading into this game too, with Hughes injured again and Papenhuyzen out with concussion. Asofa-Solomona continues his run of woes with the judiciary and is also unavailable - perhaps a blessing of sorts given his tendency to concede penalties. Importantly, Grant is back at dummy-half, and the club fortunes may live and die with Grant this finals series. The last time Grant played, in round 25, the Storm beat the Bulldogs at this venue (20-14), even though Grant spent ten minutes in the sin bin. The only key difference between that round 25 Storm side and this one is they won't have Papenhuyzen at fullback or kicking goals. Nick Meaney takes over both roles. The Bulldogs side that lost in round 25 included Xerri, Montoya and Kiraz and its likely none will play on Friday night (although there are some whispers Kiraz might make a surprise return). That's a lot of changes to a backline, and given the Bulldogs spine has been a bit of a stuttering mess at times, one wonders whether they have the attack to score enough points against a premiership heavyweight. It also leaves the Dogs without their first choice wingers, an area the Storm were likely to target in attack anyway. How Wilson copes in aerial contests against Coates is worth pondering. Could prove the difference between winning and losing.

Verdict - Storm by 7

New Zealand Warriors (6th) vs Penrith Panthers (7th) – Saturday afternoon – Go Media Stadium

When the Warriors do host a final at home they usually win them, but it has been a while. Regardless, they'll have a full stadium and much of a country cheering them on in this. Egan and Ford return to bolster the starting thirteen. Their coach and captain would know more about the Panthers than just about anyone, and that helps. I've seen a few good judges tipping them to pull off the upset here, and if it were to happen it's the biggest upset of the weekend. While I accept the points of those picking the Warriors, I can't ignore the round 16 clash between these sides at this venue. The Panthers won that game 28-18, and while that doesn't sound like a resounding win they did it without Cleary, Yeo, Edwards, To'o and Martin. 

Verdict - Panthers by 7

Cronulla Sharks (5th) vs Sydney Roosters (8th) – Saturday night – Sharks Stadium

A little disappointing that there's only one game in Sydney this weekend, and they'll be playing at a stadium that doesn't deserve it. Oh well, at least you know they'll sell all the tickets. These sides have met three times in finals for three Roosters victories, and in all recent match-ups the Roosters have won 9 from 12. They didn't win the last match-up though, in round 20 where the Sharks won 31-18. That was the last game Chad Townsend played, and unfortunately it wasn't his best. Since then, the Roosters have won 5 from 7 and there's been some big wins among them. Walker adds a dimension in attack that's difficult to contain, and it doesn't hurt that his goal-kicking is almost perfect. When every try is worth 6 points it can make a big difference in a tight contest. The Sharks prospects here rest with three key players - Fonua-Blake getting the Sharks moving forward with momentum, Brailey running the ball from dummy-half or in support behind the forwards, and Hynes getting involved in attack on the back of those two things. Should all that happen, they can absolutely win this. This looks the closest contest for the weekend, but I'm with the tricolours to do just enough. Game of the round - shame about the venue.

Verdict - Roosters by 2

Canberra Raiders (1st) vs Brisbane Broncos (4th) – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

Here's a crazy little tidbit of trivia to impress the family when you sit down to watch this game on Sunday - the last time these sides met in a final, the current Canberra coach was the Canberra captain. In 1995, the Raiders beat the Broncos 14-8 at Suncorp Stadium. Interestingly (but fairly irrelevant), the Bulldogs won the premiership that season from 6th on the ladder (beating the teams that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd in their last three games). So...it can be done. These sides met way back in round two in Canberra where the Raiders prevailed 32-22. Note that Tapine didn't play for the Raiders in that game, and if he's not the best prop forward in the game he's on the podium. Each side has a player with some sort of injury cloud hovering over them - Papalii and Walsh have been hobbling or trying not to hobble at training this week. Both have been named, and both are key players for their respective sides. Something to watch out for. The Broncos were very very good against the Storm last week, but they'll have to retain that level of performance from here on in. They have the squad to do it, and they have won four in a row. They haven't travelled a lot in recent months - just two trips outside Queensland since the first week of July. One of those was a thorough dismantling of the team that finished last in Newcastle, and the other was a night to forget in Melbourne. As far as away trips go, Canberra is one of the hardest, but the daytime schedule does help. The Raiders will be well rested with 11 of their best getting a week off in round 27. They also had a bye in round 24, so the squad should be in good shape. There's some risk they'll lack match fitness given the time off, but every team would take the opportunity to freshen up at this time of year if they could. The Raiders have won 9 from 10 at home this season and 7 from 8 against top eight teams this season. That one loss at home and against another finalist was the same game - against the Bulldogs in round 10. You might recall the Raiders led that game 20-0 at half-time, but forgot to come out of the dressing sheds for the second half. I think the Raiders have been under-estimated all season and I still do. I think their coach will tap into that, and I think the Raiders will finally silence the doubters on Sunday afternoon. They're genuine contenders, and my top pick. 

Verdict - Raiders by 7

Wally Lewis - finals week one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• STORM (2nd) vs Bulldogs (3rd)
• Warriors (6th) vs PANTHERS (7th)
• Sharks (5th) vs ROOSTERS (8th)
• Raiders (1st) vs BRONCOS (4th)