Newcastle Knights vs Manly Sea Eagles – Thursday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

It's nigh on impossible to find a reason to tip the Knights in this game. Traditionally home ground advantage is a big tick for the Knights, but they haven't won at home since round 2. The Knights fans are a resilient bunch, but the Thursday night schedule and a gloomy weather forecast might leave the turnstiles clicking over slower than usual. Ponga does return for this game, and he is one player that can spart the Knights attack...to a point. This season, they're averaging just 13 points per game, and that makes it hard to beat anyone. Seven times this season they've scored 2 tries or less in a match, and often the tries they are scoring are late in the game when the contest is over. Their opponents on Thursday are averaging more than 24 points per game, and when they win that ratchets up to 32. When the Sea Eagles have lost this season, it's typically been to much better sides than the Knights. The Knights can win of course - we've seen far too many upsets this season to say that can't happen - but the Sea Eagles would need to be way off their game for that to happen. Note that Manly are resting Tom Trbojevic for another week, but we learned last week that Hopoate goes okay in the number one jersey.

Verdict - Sea Eagles by 14

Result - Knights 26 defeated Sea Eagles 22

Melbourne Storm vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – AAMI Park

The Storm have been a warm premiership favourite all season, an indication of what they could do more than what they're actually delivering. Every now and then they'll show us what they're capable of, but there's been plenty of games where they've been far from their best. Their win last week over the Titans is a fair example of the latter - good enough to win, but sloppy enough to have the coach fuming. This week, Grant and Coates return to boost the squad, while the Cowboys stick with the same seventeen that (just) got the job done against the Tigers. During the periods of that game when the Tigers had just 12 on the field, the Cowboys won 26-0. When it was 13 players each, the Tigers won 28-6. I've felt for some time that the Cowboys are a 50 minute team, during which they could beat anyone, but for extended periods their performance drops, and you can't do that against the very good teams. Heck, you can't even do it against the Tigers. The Storm haven't lost a game at home this season, and they're not likely to lose this one either.

Verdict - Storm by 8

Result - Storm 38 defeated Cowboys 14

Redcliffe Dolphins vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Dragons are chasing a third successive win, but their recent victories have been over teams travelling poorly (Broncos, Knights). This is harder. Jaydn Su'A was hoping to impress QLD coach Billy Slater last week, and he looked good until he busted his ankle. He's likely unavailable for quite some time. The Dolphins should be freshened up after a week off, and let's not forget that the last time they played they beat the Bulldogs by panels, and they did it in Sydney without Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow. He's back on Friday night, and Marshall-King and Plath aren't far away either. If the ladder was based on points differential only the Dolphins would be 6th, but they're actually 10th and below the Dragons. If they want to make their first ever finals series they'll need to be winning games like these. I still think they'll make the top eight, and the odds available for that outcome are tempting. I do bleed dolphin though so...a bit biased.

Verdict - Dolphins by 10

Result - Dolphins 56 defeated Dragons 6

Cronulla Sharks vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Sharks Stadium

This will be the Warriors 5th game in 6 weeks in Australia and, incredibly, they've won them all. In fact, the only game they've lost during that period was the game they played at home. The Warriors have lost just three games all season - all to top four teams (Raiders, Storm, Raiders). That said, Sharks Stadium on a Saturday night is an awful place to visit, and if the Sharks aren't a top four team they've very close to one. A few handy returns for the Sharks with Wilton and Katoa available - the latter replacing the suspended Mulitalo on the wing. A bit out for the Warriors, with Barnett out for the season. That has to diminish the Warriors pack, weakened a little further with Capewell slotting into the centres to replace the injured Berry. Given the inhospitable venue, and a slight advantage to the Sharks forwards, I have to pick the home side here. Note that Fonua-Blake takes on his old side here, and will likely have a blinder.

Verdict - Sharks by 4

Result - Warriors 40 defeated Sharks 10

Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

I could spend quite a bit of time talking about how craptacular the Broncos have been in recent weeks, but you have plenty of opportunities to read such things elsewhere. What I will offer you here is this - this is game number 300 for Adam Reynolds, and if the Broncos can't pull their finger out for that, they're beyond help. Reece Walsh returns at fullback, so anything is possible really...good and bad. The Titans have a few key outs this week - with Verrills, Brimson and JoJo Fifita. At times the Titans are terrific to watch, but their defence continues to be an issue. You almost never see a game where 100+ points are scored, but this could be one of those.

Verdict - Broncos by 10

Result - Broncos 44 defeated Titans 14

Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – GIO Stadium

The Broncos have a milestone to celebrate on Saturday night, but this one is even more special - Josh Papalii becoming the most capped Raider of all time with game number 319. An extraordinary effort, and all of it in the toughest position on the paddock. There's no reason to question the form of the Raiders leading into this, but that should give them an extra boost. This won't be easy though, with Walker and Wighton returning to bolster the Bunnies. They were competitive against the Warriors last week, but this feels like a step up in grade, particularly away from home. The Raiders have won 8 of their last 9, with their only loss in that period against the table-topping Bulldogs. I think they're the real deal, and I think they can win the premiership.

Verdict - Raiders by 4

Result - Raiders 36 defeated Rabbitohs 12

Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

This venue was the Panthers home ground last weekend, playing against a team who call the same venue there home ground. On Sunday the Panthers are the away team, playing a team who often play their home games elsewhere. A tad confusing - let's just call this a neutral venue. The Panthers hard-fought win over the Eels last weekend was full of quality, and they did that with five of their starting thirteen backing up from Origin duty. For the Panthers to make the finals they, as the coach pointed out, have to win games, and winning games against the teams directly above them on the ladder are even more important. I think they'll be too good on Sunday, but this does look like a football game. Luai gets his first chance to show his wares against the team he won four premierships with.

Verdict - Panthers by 7

Result - Panthers 18 defeated Tigers 14

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Parramatta Eels – Monday afternoon – Accor Stadium

The Bulldogs used to have a fairly famous mantra - bred not bought - referring to their preference to develop their own rather than seek out players from other clubs to fill their roster. It's worth noting that the only players in their starting thirteen on Monday that are local juniors are the two wingers, Kiraz and Montoya. They bought another one during the week in Lachlan Galvin, he's on the extended bench but is unlikely to play here. The Bulldogs were soundly beaten by the Dolphins in their last outing, but they've had a week off to freshen up, and they welcome back plenty of handy footballers for this - Crichton, King, Mann, Kiraz and Suluka-Fifita. The Eels lost to the Panthers last weekend, but it was a high-quality game and they aren't out of this. I'm leaning (but not heavily) to the Dogs, who look likely to break another attendance record on Monday afternoon if the weather gods play nicely. It's the game of the round, and clearly so. Just watching a club game between two Sydney clubs in front of 60,000+ crowd makes this so.

Verdict - Bulldogs by 4

Result - Bulldogs 30 defeated Eels 12

Wally Lewis - round fourteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• Knights vs SEA EAGLES
• STORM vs Cowboys
• DOLPHINS vs Dragons
• SHARKS vs Warriors
• BRONCOS vs Titans
• RAIDERS vs Rabbitohs
• Tigers vs PANTHERS
• BULLDOGS vs Eels