Canterbury Bulldogs vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Thursday night – Accor Stadium

First and foremost lets get through the line-up changes. The Bulldogs have already seen their depth tested in recent weeks and on Thursday night they'll be without Crichton, King and Mann (Origin) and the injured Kiraz and Suluka-Fifita. One key return for them this week, with Josh Curran adding some vigour to the engine room. The Dolphins lose Tabuia-Fidow to Origin and Gilbert to injury. Finefeuiaki is in camp with the QLD side but is expected to duck down the highway and play. While the Dolphins find themselves in equal last place on the ladder they do have a positive points differential. This would indicate they're competitive when they lose, and their biggest losing margin all season has been14 points. We know the Phins can score points - they've scored just 18 points less than the table-topping Bulldogs this year - but they're not winning often enough. Without their most dynamic attacking player in the line-up (Tabula-Fidow) they're likely to be an easier team to manage, and the Bulldogs have been very good this year at containing their opponents. There's plenty of new names in the Bulldogs line-up this week, but there's spine is unchanged. The market doesn't look quite right to me, and I expect this to me much more competitive that most. Regardless, the Dogs haven't lost at home this season and, despite the schedule and less than ideal venue, they'll still have a decent crowd behind them. 

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result – Dolphins 44 defeated Bulldogs 8

Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – CommBank Stadium

Both sides will be without their halfback and captain on Friday night. The Eels will also be missing Lomax while the Sea Eagles have Jake Trbojevic out with concussion. I suspect Russell takes over as goal-kicker for the Eels this weekend, but I can't be certain of that. The Eels have been a much improved outfit since the return of Moses, so how they respond to his absence will be interesting. That they also lose Lomax, who gives his all and does a good job while he's giving it, compounds the issue. Dylan Brown gets an opportunity to step up, and he might, but who knows. Both sides come off convincing wins last weekend but I'm happy to argue that a win over the Knights in Newcastle is less impressive than a win over the Cowboys in Townsville. The Sea Eagles beat the Eels in round four by 26 to 12. CommBank Stadium enhances the Eels prospects, but only to a point.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 4

Result – Eels 30 defeated Sea Eagles 10

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday afternoon – Carrington Park, Bathurst

The Panthers and Knights are off to BigPete country, a part of the world that makes Penrith feel tropical by comparison at this of year. Hopefully the weather improves before kick-off but the forecast for the next few days looks pretty grim. Kudos to the fans who brave the conditions, to see a struggling Knights team without Ponga and a Panthers team that will be missing most of their first grade stars. I salute your enthusiasm for the great game. Based on the omissions for the Panthers (Cleary, Edwards, Yeo, To'o, Martin, Papali'l, Garner) you'd be tempted to give the Knights a chance, until you remember just how poor the Knights have been in recent weeks. Conditions and circumstances mean this could still be a close, low-scoring game, but if Penrith want to play finals football this year they need to win games like these, and I suspect they'll find a way.

Verdict – Panthers by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Knights 25 defeated Panthers 6

Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Industree Group Stadium, Gosford

As per tradition, the Sharks give nothing to the State of Origin and get to front up with what is essentially their best side. The Roosters, by comparision, are without Crichton, Watson, Collins, Toia, Leniu and Whyte this weekend. They can still bring a team loaded with talent, but this is a real test of their depth. You all know how much I love the Sharks and how I think they get an easy draw every season, so here's another fun fact. The Sharks don't have to leave NSW for the last 10 weeks before the finals series. They should be a top four team every single season. Note that the Roosters are taking this game to Gosford, so no real home ground advantage for the Chooks either.

Verdict – Sharks by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Roosters 42 defeated Sharks 16

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Go Media Stadium

Second plays third in the game of the round. The Warriors have lost just two games this season, but one of those was to the Raiders in Las Vegas in round one. No doubt a sold out stadium in Auckland will feel a little more like home. The Warriors lose Barnett to Origin and Fisher-Harris to suspension, with Afoa and Ford returning as handy replacements. The Raiders with be without Hudson Young and he's a huge out. Young sits fifth on the season tryscorer list this year - for some context the next forward on the list is Jacob Liddle in 29th. The Warriors haven't lost a game at home this season, and this match was already sold out more than a week ago. Despite that, I'm sticking with the Raiders who continue to impress. They've notched up wins in Vegas, Darwin and Brisbane already this year and I don't think the travel across the ditch is going to slow them down. If you only watch one NRL game this weekend, watch this one.

Verdict – Raiders by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 16 defeated Warriors 10

Wally Lewis - round twelve selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• BULLDOGS vs Dolphins
• Eels vs SEA EAGLES
• PANTHERS vs Knights
• Roosters vs SHARKS
• WARRIORS vs Roosters