Round twenty seven selections

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm – Thursday night – Suncorp Stadium

Many of us have questioned the on-field decision-making skills of Reece Walsh from time to time. Clearly his off-field decision-making could use some refinement as well. In any case, the fortunes of the Broncos on Thursday all but lie with the diminutive fullback. If he sets up and scores more tries than he concedes, the home side will get a rare win over the Storm and cement a top four spot. Regardless of the result, the Storm will finish in second place on the ladder. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Storm conceded 40 points in the second half last week (and 28 in the last 20), and that's not the sort of result their master coach will tolerate. A string of Storm first graders return for this clash, including Hughes who gets a run before the finals to shake out the cobwebs. These sides met only a few weeks ago where the Storm prevailed 22-2, but I think we can all agree that was a unusual game - up until the chaotic run of Bronco injuries they looked like they were in that contest. With Grant still unavailable, along with a few other Storm forwards (Blore, Utoikamanu) I think the Broncos have a genuine edge in the middle. History (17 wins from the last 18 matches) would tell you to pick the Storm and move on, but I'm bold and silly enough to tip the Broncos in a game that they'll be desperate to win. Virtually a final before we start the finals.

Verdict - Broncos by 4

Result - Broncos 30 defeated Storm 14

Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors – Friday night – 4 Pines Park

Even if the Sea Eagles found a way into the top eight (and they won't), this is Cherry-Evans last game at Brookvale in Manly colours. I'm mindful they've already had a celebration for him when he played his 350th game, but if this is his last game for the club (and it is) it would be nice to go out with a win and let him lead the team song. Just as the Sea Eagles can mathematically make the top eight, the Warriors can mathematically make the top four. They'd need the two teams above them (Sharks and Broncos) to lose. That's a much more believable set of events, and they'll already know one of those outcomes before Friday night kick-off. Of greater concern is the Warriors recent form - their last four wins have been over the teams running 11th, 15th, 16th and 17th. Manly are better than that, especially so at home.

Verdict - Sea Eagles by 10

Result - Sea Eagles 27 defeated Warriors 26

Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

The rugby league gods have delivered again. A disappointing year for the Rabbitohs but they have an opportunity to finish the season doing what they love - pissing off the Sydney Roosters. Should they win on Friday night there's every chance the Roosters will miss the top eight this season, and that might be motivation enough. To add some spice this game takes place at the venue that these two clubs have been squabbling over for some time. A real shame that Mitchell isn't available to play, because is exactly the sort of game he could pick up and win on his own. Notably, Murray (who hasn't played all season) and Wighton are lacing on the boots. More than handy inclusions. For the Roosters, the only change is the return of Sam Walker, and he's a handy inclusion too. If this is a tight contest, and I think that's likely, the goal-kicking of Walker and the occasional moment of creative alchemy might get the Chooks home. Given the way they finished the game last week against the Storm, I expect they'll be full of confidence. Should the Rabbitohs pull out a game for the ages, Johnston needs three tries to break the try-scoring record. If you're going to break a record like that, this is exactly the sort of game you want to break it in. 8th plays 13th, but it's the game of the round I say.

Verdict - Roosters by 4

Result - Roosters 36 defeated Rabbitohs 6

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Penrith Panthers – Saturday afternoon – WIN Stadium, Wollongong

The Panthers welcome back most of their regular first graders on Sunday, although To'o and Martin get another week to get themselves ready for a very different finals campaign to recent seasons. Should they win another premiership, they'll need to do so by winning four games away from home in four weeks. A big ask. It starts with a confidence building win on the road over the Dragons, who were disappointing against the Sea Eagles last weekend. Can't see them turning things around in this.

Verdict - Panthers by 13

Result - Panthers 40 defeated Dragons 20

Gold Coast Titans vs Wests Tigers – Saturday night – Cbus Super Stadium

This is the first of just two games this round where both teams are definitely playing their last game of the year. For the Titans it's been about as bad as it could be. But despite that, a win at home on Saturday give them a very good chance of missing the wooden spoon. Something to play for. Two interesting inclusions in their seventeen for this - former Wallaby fly-half Carter Gordon makes his long-awaited debut for the Titans in the centres, and Cooper Bai, whose Dad was handy, makes his debut off the bench. Cooper is a backrow/lock and impressed for Qld in the under 19s Origin game earlier this year. These sides met in round 20 at Leichhardt Oval where a 79th minute field goal for Doueihi made the difference - note that the Titans scored more tries than the Tigers in that game. Home ground advantage, a chance to farewell Hasler and Foran, and the hope of dodging a wooden spoon are enough reasons for me to tip the Titans in this. The Tigers have impressed late in season 2025 and are a team on the rise, but when you don't have much to play for and your last game of the year is on the Gold Coast, there's some chance they might not be completely focused on football.

Verdict - Titans by 4

Result - Titans 36 defeated Tigers 28

Canterbury Bulldogs vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

No rest for the wicked Bulldogs, even though the result of this game will have no impact on their ladder position. The Sharks can finish as high as fourth, providing the Broncos lose and the Warriors don't win by panels...lots of panels. They'll know the outcomes for those two before Saturday night, so their fate may already be sealed. I'm using the round 4 clash as my reference point here, where the Bulldogs were comfortable winners 20-6 at Shark Park. The Bulldogs were without Burton, Kikau and Galvin for that game, and they're a much The Dogs are more formidable opponent at home.

Verdict - Bulldogs by 7

Result - Sharks 24 defeated Bulldogs 6

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Canberra Raiders – Sunday afternoon – Kayo Stadium

Yet another game where we will be better positioned to make a judgement call after earlier games in the round have been played. Sadly, we don't get that luxury. Should the Roosters lose to the Rabbitohs on Friday night, the Dolphins will be playing for their first ever top eight finish. A terrific result for a young club that has had its depth tested all season. The Raiders can afford to rest players before the final and are choosing to do so. Given the line-ups, it's hard not to choose the Dolphins - they don't get to play many games on the peninsula, and this game has been sold out for weeks. Even if a top eight finish isn't up for grabs, they'll want to end the season with a winning performance at home. Note that Herbie Farnworth is edging closer to a return. Some chance he's a late inclusion here, particularly if they're playing for a finals spot.

Verdict - Dolphins by 14

Result - Dolphins 62 defeated Raiders 24

Parramatta Eels vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

Once again, another game where previous results may have a huge impact on this one. Should the Titans beat the Tigers earlier in the round, the Knights will need to win this to dodge a wooden spoon. If the Titans lose, not so much to play for, although they might like to win their last game under coach Adam O'Brien. The Eels, my early tip to win the wooden spoon have been in good form in recent weeks. Wins over top eight teams (Broncos, Roosters, Warriors) is good enough form for this, particularly at CommBank where the Knights have a poor record. The coach has named Brown in the halves which gives the Moses/Brown halves combination one more chance to do their thing together.

Verdict - Eels by 10

Result - Eels 66 defeated Knights 10

Wally Lewis - round twenty seven selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Broncos vs STORM
  • SEA EAGLES vs Warriors
  • ROOSTERS vs Rabbitohs
  • Dragons vs PANTHERS
  • Titans vs TIGERS
  • BULLDOGS vs Sharks
  • DOLPHINS vs Raiders
  • EELS vs Knights

Comments

Mary S's picture

@ Taka
Congratulations on a perfect score for round 26.

Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

Greetings tipsters

A quick reminder for the regulars, and an FYI for the newcomers.

This tipping comp includes the finals series.

And that we have cash prizes for our top three tipsters, and a random draw for all the tipsters that have stuck with it all season.

All the best

The Thinker

Rocket Ryan's picture

That great to remind tipsters like Tigerholic he still has a chance to finish in the top forty Thinker.

Taka's picture

Thanks Mary.

Cheers...

MGM's picture

Dear Footy chick,
As much as I love to review your tips before making my final selections (wish I had done so for my "family&friends" comp this year and I would be leading that one!) ... I think it would be fair and reasonable for you to hold back for these last weeks until Mad Max has entered his.
I'm not suggesting any impropriety on his part , I'm just suggesting that strategically , if it were me that was one point ahead of such an accomplished and formidable tipster as you at this stage , it would occur to me that tipping the same as you (even if I disagreed with one of your selections) would give me the win in just a few weeks' time.
.. Also ,you on the other hand, are the one that would benefit from a "point" of difference (pun intended).
.... just sayin :-)

Hardyards's picture

I’m late for first game but can I submit the rest
SEA EAGLES
ROOSTERS
PANTHERS
TIGERS
BULLDOGS
DOLPHINS
EELS
Thanks.

MGM's picture

Bucket-gate !
Does anyone know who is responsible for making sure there are a couple of game balls in that bucket ?
I've seen suggestions that it's the home team's job (their ballboys maybe)?
If that is the case, then the ref's decision is a bit of a disgrace .
The reason for the time clock is to stop a winning team from time wasting ... and the Storm were chasing the game.
A little logic would have gone a long way there.

The Thinker's picture

@MGM

I think he'd like a chance to make that decision again. I suspect the referees are so petrified of getting things wrong that they're scared to make a decision based on common sense.

That one last night is a great example where common sense should have prevailed.

All the best

The Thinker

MGM's picture

7th game of the round and it's B-Grade football from both teams so far ...
and there's only one B-Grade team on the field!
No excuse for the Dolphins.

MGM's picture

2nd minute of the match and 50% of the Raiders team were just strolling to get back onside after the Dolphins' first kick.
No fatigue yet and Corey Horsburgh was in the middle of the walking group having a chat to the newbies , no doubt giving them some advice.
He is the most experienced out there today for a "Green Machine" that's coughing and spluttering on three cylinders and he is the Captain .... and, at that early stage , finally gets back onside on the third tackle. ... They then continue their walk in the park for two more plays !
10 minutes later he blatantly strips the ball and throws away the Raiders' Captains' Challenge , which had the Fox commentators in fits of laughter. .. what a buffoon !
Half time now and the Dolphins have lifted their game at least .. but Ricky should be showing his Reserve team the footage of that 2nd minute and telling them : " I have given you lot an opportunity when I chose to give yous a Run ... not a F#n Walk !! Any of this Pedestrian Sh!t in the second half won't see you back in reserve grade , you'll be looking for another Club! ... and you can take your big, dumb Captain with you.

Mary S's picture

@ MGM,
Loved your commentary of the game seeing I've not been able to watch it!!

Bulldogs and Storm also had a very disappointing round this week too - are some teams over-training?

Cheers,
Mary

MGM's picture

@Mary
I just think for more than half the teams in the top eight for these last 2 rounds of the season there's no incentive to play hard and risk injury going into the finals (esp. this week).
Raiders @ 4 points clear are doing what the Panthers did (and fair enough .. as Slater said, they've earned the right).
..The Storm (90 points clear on the differential) couldn't be caught by the "Dirty Dogs" , who in turn were 4 points clear of 4th placed Broncos.
... The Broncos were in danger of losing their top 4 spot to the Sharks and both those teams gave their all in their respective matches.
.. The Warriors were in no danger of losing their 6th place and played accordingly
... 7th place Panthers needed to be sure to stay ahead of the Roosters to ensure their first finals match is against NZ and the next week most likely against the Dogs (Both being the weakest opponents in the final 8 .. a bit of a dream run for Penrith). Penrith did JUST enough against the Dragons to secure the win and the fact that they could exercise that much control over their effort at this point of the competition makes them a genuine Grand Final contender.
... Then the Roosters played "out of their skin" and announced themselves as worthy and a Real threat to go deep in the Finals .
It's (IMHO) the Warriors and the Bulldogs that are the Pretenders going into this Finals Series.

BigPeteBx's picture

You know MikeyGM - I've been thinking the same over the past few weeks. When playing for sheep stations, as we are here - maybe the leaders send their tips to Thinker (discretely) by his email and let him post them after the games are played.
I've been in a similar position before but luckily I came home the winner because I played my last joker on the very last round. Got a perfect round, got the bonus points allocated and won the comp by 1point.
A few years ago now, but I collected around $600 plus dollars.
Cheers Champ and thanks for your commentary thru the season. The old soccer players now their ball games.
Best wishes - PC (Big Pete) in Bx Country

MGM's picture

G'day Pete ,
nice to hear from you.
I see that you were only a few points off the lead again this year ... well done mate!
My other comp (friends&family) has all those goodies like a bonus point for a perfect round and a Joker round , and I love both formats equally.
The other wonderful difference is the Thinker keeps the comp going right through to the GF.

I think you might be referring to the iTip comp , which doesn't give access to other tipsters' choices until each match has kicked off and you can no longer change your tip at that point.
I'm excited to know someone who has scored a perfect round on the Joker round , so please tell me , as 26 of us have been waiting to see whether the bonus point is added to the eight making your score 18 or is it added to the 16, making your score 17 ? ... (2x8 +1 or 2x9 )
We only added the Joker option 3 or 4 seasons ago and no-one has jagged it yet !

P.S.
Go the Reds !

BigPeteBx's picture

Morning Monday Mike - nice up this way. Spring is certainly with us mate.
Yes mate, close but too often a few teams let me down that were certs and went down.
The work comp I used to be in was run via ESPN Footy Tips page but had our own moderators. Joker round was double whatever your score was then the 1pt bonus if you got a Peter Brock round (Perfect☺).

I once used to play in I-Tip but I never had a team of players as I just used it for the challenge of tipping. That was when they allowed one member tipping.
I scored the perfect round about 2020 year at my then workplace with ESPN Footy Tips. Doubled with the joker and then bonus point added. So Joker doubles whatever you tip/select that wins and if you are perfect - the bonus is added for the initial 8 games of NRL. We only allowed two joker rounds. Some were cautious/cagey and would leave their 2nd Joker until the last round.
Hope this helps Champ - Go The Devils - I'm hoping.
Pool should have another good year for you. Money changes hands in EPL like a Casino.

cheers and keep well - BigPete

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder for the final time this season. Congrats to our minor premiers, the Canberra Raiders, and a special shout out to the Titans for dodging the wooden spoon at the last available opportunity. Better late than not.

I have also updated our tipping comp - plenty of solid scores but none better than The Voyeur with 8 from 8. Outstanding tipping there.

As always, if you notice any issues just let me know.

As mentioned previously, we tip through the finals series, so four more weeks to go. I'll have the page for week one of the finals published soon. 

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

@ The Voyeur,
Congratulations on a perfect score for the last round of the season.
8 from 8 has been hard to come by this year!!

Cheers,
Mary

MGM's picture

@BigPeteBx
Thanks for that Pete.
Co-incidentally I was also in ESPN for a while courtesy of a State Gov job I had for several years and it was a Very large group (1000+) .... not much chance for a mid-stream tipper like me.
Crazy not to be in the Sportsbet comp also with their weekly prize of $10k and free to enter.
But this is the Thinker's site , so enough of that !

My Reds are off to a great start to the season .
Hopefully your Reds can shake off their bumpy start and we can pick up this convo when they both meet in the final play-off !
.. Cheers Pete.

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