Round twenty three selections

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos – Thursday night – AAMI Park

Typically the Melbourne Storm pick themselves in these clashes, what with their astonishing win record over the Broncos. I believe it's 16 wins from the last 17, but even that doesn't paint the true picture. Many of those wins were by hefty margins, even in games where the Broncos were expected to do well. So, if history is your only guide, you've probably read enough, but I'm about to do something a little bit mad. The Broncos can still make the top four and, at the very least, will be wanting to retain a home game in week one of the finals (potentially a money-making blockbuster against the Dolphins). Now, I'm the first to recognise that this is harder than beating the Rabbitohs reserve grade team at Suncorp last week. But they did score 60, and they did that without Payne Haas who returns on Thursday. He's a timely return too, given the season-ending injury to Willison. They've won 6 of their last 7, and their only loss was a narrow one against a team playing well (and the Broncos had a game-winning try disallowed late in the game). I think they're going better than people realise. As for the Storm, we've seen glimpses of their best but not for some time. Recent wins have been narrow and/or scrappy, and they were all against teams outside the top eight. AAMI Park is typically a fortress, but the last time they played there they lost to the Sea Eagles, a team soundly beaten in their two games since. The Storm are so good they often win even when they don't play well, but I think they'll need to be better than that on Thursday. They can be better, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if they win by 30, but I'm tipping an upset.

Verdict - Broncos by 2

Result - Storm 22 defeated Broncos 2

Newcastle Knights vs Penrith Panthers – Friday night – McDonald Jones Stadium

Last week I touched on the Panthers rule-bending in my preview of their game with the Titans, and now everyone is talking about it. Anyhoo, apparently it was all an honest mistake and we should move on until they do it again. So I'll move on, until they do it again. The Panthers have everything to play for as they eye off a potential top four finish - a result that seemed impossible not so long ago. They are now a firm second favourite to win the premiership, and it's hard to doubt them. You'd think the Knights wouldn't have a lot to play for, but a win or two should be enough to see them avoid the dreaded wooden spoon, and that can be quite the motivation. The return of Best helps, and the Knights are giving another halves combination a try this weekend, with Jake Arthur joining Cogger. A big out for the Panthers too, with Yeo out with a shoulder issue for a yet-to-be-determined period. He's an important link man for the Panthers and it will take some adjusting to his absence, but the Panthers spine of Edwards, Talagi, Clearly and Kenny is classy, and can get the job done. The Panthers may want to make some sort of "we can win without cheating" statement on Friday night. Good! Don't just say it...live it.

Verdict - Panthers by 14

Result - Panthers 48 defeated Knights 12

Canberra Raiders vs Manly Sea Eagles – Friday night – GIO Stadium

No line-up changes for the Raiders after their surprise loss to the Dragons. The loss they needed to have is a bit of a cliché, but I think there's some truth in it. No panic stations from the Raiders camp for now, but they won't want to lose two in a row. The Sea Eagles are still in the contest for a top eight finish with the Dolphins and Roosters. They're the least likely of the trio, particularly on recent form, but they do have the softest draw from here. With the other two teams playing each other, Manly probably need to win this to keep their hopes alive. Unfortunately they've scored just 8 points in their last two games. The Raiders, by comparison, scored 84 points in their last two games at home.

Verdict - Raiders by 8

Result - Raiders 28 defeated Sea Eagles 12

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Jubilee Stadium

The local derbies have been fairly one-sided in recent times, with the Sharks winning the last ten (yes, really). Even at this venue, where you'd think the Dragons would do better, their last win over their neighbours was in 2016. The Sharks are some chance of a top four finish, and the Dragons are in that weird section of the ladder where they can't make the top eight and can't finish last. It looks to me like one team has a lot more to play for. Given that, and given recent results between these two, the Sharks seem the sensible way to go.

Verdict - Sharks by 7

Result - Dragons 22 defeated Sharks 14

Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

For mine, this is the game of the round. Two of the more entertaining teams to watch and it's looking like one of them (but not both of them) will be playing finals football this season. It also brings together two of the most promising young halfbacks in the NRL (Katoa vs Walker), and the battle of the fullbacks (Tabuai-Fidow vs Tedesco) is worth the admission price alone. These sides have already met this season and at this ground, where the Roosters prevailed 36-26 in Magic Round. It was 7 tries to 4 that day, with wayward kicking by the Chooks keeping the score closer than it could have been. The Dolphins also have two big outs on Saturday night - Kaufusi (perhaps lucky to only get a two week suspension given his colourful history with the judiciary) and the injured Farnworth. Add those two to the Dolphins and I'd probably be tipping them, but without them I'd say the Chooks have the edge.

Verdict - Roosters by 8

Result - Roosters 64 defeated Dolphins 12

Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Accor Stadium

Phil Gould has been keen to talk about a lot of things this week, but the one thing he doesn't want anyone talking about is the Bulldogs poor loss to the Tigers. Ah, the gentle art of distraction. It was another rainy day and another poor loss for the Bulldogs in those conditions - if they were a racehorse they'd be a late scratching. There's some chance of wet conditions in Sydney on Saturday night too - keep your eyes on the skies. Galvin has been getting around in a hand brace which may or may not be a big deal. We honestly don't know, but it's fair to note that half the players in the NRL are strapped up for one reason or another at this time of the year. He's been named to play so let's assume he'll be there on the night. The Bulldogs record against top eight teams is quite poor, and the Warriors have been a top eight team all season. They've had a few wobbles of late with key players unavailable, but I'm tipping them in a genuine upset here. They will have likely seen a number of teams (potentially three) go past them on the ladder before kick-off, and I'll back them to reclaim their spot in the top four.

Verdict - Warriors by 4

Result - Bulldogs 32 defeated Warriors 14

Gold Coast Titans vs South Sydney Rabbitohs – Sunday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium

A game that won't mean much to many, but it means a lot to these two teams. 16th plays 17th and winning could mean the difference between last and something other than last. The Titans were gallant and, let me say this politely, unlucky against the Panthers last weekend. Not only was there all the controversy surrounding the missed conversion attempt, the NRL have since admitted that the referees made an error and should have awarded Sami a penalty try. No try for Sami, Sami misses this game through concussion protocols, and the bloke that biffed him in the head is playing for Penrith this weekend. Life, and rugby league, isn't always fair. I'm tipping the Titans and not only because I want them to have a win. They've been playing well over the last month and the Rabbitohs, still scraping a team together as best they can, are staring down successive away games interstate. That's not easy for regular first graders.

Verdict - Titans by 8

Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Titans 18

Parramatta Eels vs North Queensland Cowboys – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

The Cowboys were a hard watch last week. I kept watching, but turning it off would have been better for my soul. Few would have seen a reason to think they could front up the next weekend in Sydney and turn things around, but I didn't decide to call myself the biggest mind in rugby league for nothing. Importantly, the Cowboys lineup on Sunday afternoon looks much more logical. Clifford in the halves, Purdue and Vailea in the centres, Nanai in the forwards, Taumalolo back at prop for the first time in a long time, Mikaele returns on the bench to add some much needed vigor to the pack. This team looks better. This team has four Origin players in its starting thirteen. This team can win. It's been a long time since the Eels were favoured to win a game, and I think they'll take their opposition for granted. On form, I don't blame them.

Verdict - Cowboys by 4

Result - Eels 19 defeated Cowboys 18

Wally Lewis - round twenty-three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • STORM vs Broncos
  • Knights vs PANTHERS
  • RAIDERS vs Sea Eagles
  • Dragons vs SHARKS
  • DOLPHINS vs Roosters
  • BULLDOGS vs Warriors
  • TITANS vs Rabbitohs
  • EELS vs Cowboys

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round twenty two. More than a handful of us picked from 6 from 8, our top score for the round. As always, if you notice any issues with the scoring just let me know.

I'll have my previews and selections for round twenty three published on Wednesday.|

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

@ MGM

I doubt the following will be much of a consolation to Titans and the possible outcome they could have achieved against Panthers!!
"In short:
Penrith has been fined $50,000 and trainer Corey Bocking has been suspended for the rest of the home and away season.
Bocking ran in front of Gold Coast's Jayden Campbell as he prepared for a crucial late conversion attempt."

Full story is below on The Thinkers page
Cheers,
Mary

MGM's picture

@ Mary S (and others)
For some perspective , $50k is roughly what they pay Nathan( just one of a squad of22 players) for just one of his 20 or so regular season appearances each year.
They happily spend this much to gain an unfair advantage whenever they've seen the need over the last several years.
That doesn't include the several penalties awarded when some unfortunate opponent has accidentally collected a piece of Luai's mop as they've reached between his shoulder blades for his jersey or Nathan moving the tee 5 or 6 metres infield from where it should be for a conversion attempt during a finals match.

I know other teams also try to cheat and fudge and have been caught out and fined but not with the frequency and consistency of Penrith Panthers .
Nor can any other club shrug off such a sizeable fine as easily as the Panthers.
But , putting all that aside , No other club in the competition NEEDS an unfair advantage as little or less than the Panthers .
They already have every other advantage in the game , so why cheat?
Not since Cameron Smith hung up his boots have I ever seen a team get "the rub of the green" or apparently receive favour from match officials as much as The Penrith Panthers.

There's no denying the God given talent that has been bestowed on Nathan Cleary nor his uncanny ability to conjure that up in a "clutch moment".
I'm sure the father/son connection with his coach has played a big part in how well he's been able to develop those skills both individually and as a team player and playing alongside highly skilled team-mates that he's been with since their schooldays has benefited not just him , but them also.
My resentment of the cheating culture at the Panthers goes back years so I have no hesitancy including some team members that have moved on recently. ..... Check this -
...the young Panthers that won the junior comp in 2015 and were runners up in 2016 included Caleb Aekins, Dylan Edwards, Brent Naden, James Fisher-Harris, Liam Martin, Moses Leota, Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary.
Here's a couple of quotes from 2020 , PRIOR to the semi finals :
"The players' compatibility, secret gestures and ability to read each other started in junior league." .. " They know each other back to front — it's a bit like the Johns boys [Andrew and Matthew Johns], it's a skip, it's a whistle, knowing each others idiosyncrasies goes such a long way." .... "Penrith prides itself on investing in its juniors and the club's $22 million academy has helped entice new talent" (the many millions that the club has been able to pour into that academy in the following 5 years and the 4 premiership wins must make this development program a Staggering thing that no other club can even dream of)
What came after these quotes from September 2020 is NRL History now and for the last five years every other team , every other club, has struggled to even compete with the magic formula and combined talent of the Panthers.

So we have arrived at the part of my rant where you might be wondering , "what's your point MGM? (sigh)"
.. .. It's a question rather than a point .. ..

.. Why does a team like this , with all their Blessings , feel the need to be THE BIGGEST CHEATS IN THE COMPETITION ??

The Thinker's picture

@MGM

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the Panthers dynasty. I'll add something, which you have virtually said yourself...it takes some of the shine off what would otherwise be an extraordinary achievement (i.e. four successive premierships, and in the hunt for five).

What also irks me is that this latest (accidental) discrepancy, is they've done it against the team running last, against a team that hasn't had much to cheer for this season, who were on the cusp of an extraordinary come from behind win on their home ground. Against a coach fighting for his career...one of our great coaches...one of rugby league's great characters...and a great person.

Irks me, I tells ya.

All the best

The Thinker

 

Mary S's picture

Thanks MGM & The Thinker for your comments.

It IRKS me too!!
Skill I can appreciate.
Arrogance I can only just tolerate.
Cheating is the lowest of the low, (particularly where it involves a team effort) and I'm infuriated at the injustice.

Looking forward to a good round ahead, and hope Knights pull off a win!!
Cheers,
Mary

Steel Panther's picture

Yea the trainer incident was bad. A case of poor sportsmanship and agree with the comments so far.

Meanwhile serial thug Felise Kaufusi gets suspended for a mere two weeks for breaking a guys leg, ending his season. Go figure...

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hi all, my tips for this week are:

Storm by 8
Panthers by 14
Raiders by 10
Dragons by 4
Roosters by 6
Bulldogs by 12
Titans by 7
Eels by 2

Best of luck with everyone’s teams that are playing this round and with all of your tips for this week!!
Cheers!!!!!

MGM's picture

James Bracey hosted a segment on ch9 News tonight where Ivan Cleary was complaining about their fine and sanctions on their trainer. Then Luke Garner complained that people are jealous of their success and in this instance they are victims of "tall poppy syndrome".

VICTIMS of Tall Poppy Syndrome !!
..... VICTIMS !!!!!
... Cleary - "he apologised , we’ve apologised , I think it’s a little excessive.”
... "this is Only the Sixth time we've done this since 2021 " ...
...(NRL CEO Andrew Abdo confirmed on Tuesday the sanctions took into account five previous incidents involving Penrith trainers since the start of 2021.)
... “For one person to receive a suspension based on things that have happened before, that never happens. There is no justice system in the world that does that kind of thing. The fines, you can make your own judgement on that, that’s a club thing." .... .. What an Idiotic and Arrogant thing for Ivan Cleary to say ! ....
.... Any "justice system" that DOESN'T significantly increase penalties and fines imposed on a SIX TIME offender in just the last five years is NOT doing their job PROPERLY! ... no matter Which of the hapless trainers the club uses this time! .. The message being sent should be : "we don't care WHO it is , the next one will get TEN weeks".
... And even if this time Was just a mistake, Panthers are still serial offenders and should therefore be extra judicious in ensuring that their trainers don't do ANYTHING that might be construed as cheating.

Cleary said he had since become concerned for Bocking in the days since the event, with the sanctions and intense scrutiny.
“He’s struggling and has been right from the time it happened, We try to temper that with banter, which he takes in good nature, but he’s struggling."
...What's the Big F#n Deal? ... Are you worried about Jayden Campbell's mental health after him letting his team down by missing the chance to put the game to bed Ivan ?? ...... Instead of poking fun at Bocking with "banter" why don't you make sure he's fully paid for the next 5 weeks and send him to a warm sunny island resort for a few of them.
And make sure the complimentary breakfasts include a bowl of concrete each morning so he can Harden Up a bit.

And then you and that Idiot Luke Garner come back on channel 9 and apologize to the Real Victims of your "honest mistake" - J.Campbell, Des Hasler, and the Titans football Club.
. . Wankers!

EsraStar's picture

Great comments,mate.

Mary S's picture

Great comments MGM,
I saw the Channel 9 segment last night, also on ABC Qld News, with the follow up on
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-06/ivan-cleary-penrith-panthers-trai...

I see Gus had to have his say in an article indicating NRL had made the decision under public & social media pressure!!!

Unfortunately, I wonder if we have heard the last on the "mental health" aspect being played!
I refer back to your comments though in regard to J Campbell, Des Hasler and the Titans Club, and suggested it would be really stupid for that avenue to be pursued by Ivan Cleary.

Cheers,
Mary

Rikki Sixx's picture

Where's your proof that it was actually cheating? Looked like an honest mistake to me. You sound jealous of the Panther's success. Is that why you hate them so much?

Mary S's picture

No Rikki Sixx,
I do not hate, or am I jealous, of the Panthers success. Those are two wasted emotions as far as I’m concerned.

As I’ve never seen a trainer (or anyone else) move in the path of a player attempting a conversion, in all the years I’ve been interested in NRL, I’ve watched, followed development and commented as a result.

I’m sure in your workplace there are Codes of Conduct, for which there are repercussions for a worker if they break them.

From my perspective, the same has been applied in this instance, with the CEO giving the findings, based on their investigation, of the fine and ban. Since this seems to be one of six breaches since 2021 by Panthers, I’m surprised there aren’t more comments.

Personally, I think it’s a shame that the skills of the Panthers players are somewhat tainted by the whole incident.

Enjoy the games this round and good luck with your tipping

Cheers,
Mary

MGM's picture

Bloody hell Mr T , I thought we had an advantage in the halves and within 20 mins we didn't HAVE the halves !
(no offense to Ben Hunt )

The Thinker's picture

@MGM

They say rugby league is a game of two halves - unfortunately the Broncos don't have either of theirs.

Groan!

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

What a devasting night for the Broncos and the impact on the rest of their games.
No cheers,
Mary

Mary S's picture

Yes, Rikki Sixx,
I had missed that episode, so thank you for providing the link.

After watching it, I decided to do a little more digging for myself and found the rules changed for the 2022 season to include -
"Trainers must not at any time enter the line of sight of a player when he is attempting a kick for a goal, or do anything which may in any way unnecessarily interfere with or distract an opposition player whilst he is participating in the match or constitute some disadvantage to the opposing team," one of the rules in the 2022 operations manual reads.

I imagine all trainers (since that rule was introduced, and Eels were fined $5,000 that year), are very aware that breaches bring repercussions.

Thank you once again for the link, as it increased my knowledge of some aspects of the sport that has fascinated me since I became involved in workplace footy tipping some years ago.
Cheers,
Mary

The Thinker's picture

@Rikki Sixx

Thanks for sharing that article.

I think there is one thing we can all (possibly) agree on - the NRL should look at ways to reduce the amount of time the trainers are on the field.

All the best

The Thinker

MGM's picture

@Thinker
I can agree with you on that.
I just wonder how much, if any, difference it would make considering that the current rules that address this are being ignored usually without any consequences.
Unfortunately for Panthers fans, the most recent glaring example came only a few minutes after the interference on J.Campbell :-
https://au.news.yahoo.com/calls-for-nrl-rule-change-after-second-panther...

If you play the video, Paul Crawley's tone of voice epitomizes how little patience most fans of the game now have for the fact that, more often than not, it's the Panthers who are breaching these rules and many more also.
Our resident Penrith fan is no doubt reaching for the keyboard right now, but even she/he must admit that the timing of Shane Elford's lengthy and invasive time on the field makes mounting a defense for her team a difficult task , especially when it was the same Shane Elford that in round 10 this year was fined $10,000 and given a two week ban.

MGM's picture

It's gone very quiet on here.
I'll have to brush up on my fishing skills!

Meanwhile , .. What about that Dolphins/Roosters match just now?
4 (FOUR) players sent to the bin only 9 minutes in , a Rooster knocked unconscious just minutes later , and then just an annihilation of the Dolphins for the rest of the match to finish 12 - 64 .
Gotta feel for the 'Phins ... it would have been great to see them make the finals .
Not much chance of that now :-(

MGM's picture

Uh-ohh ... Wet dogs are smelly dogs !

MGM's picture

Okay, my doubts over the Bulldogs to win in the rain have been "washed away".

Steel Panther's picture

Another disappointing loss for the Cowboys. Surely with the roster they have they should be in the top 8. I'd be interested in other Cowboys fans thoughts but is it time for Todd Payten to go? I'm not a fan of sacking the coach but he's not able to get this crop of talent up. Something has to give...

Mary S's picture

Hi Steel,
Yes it was a most disappointing loss tonight, particularly having the last try disallowed for the Cowboys.
When Fittler interviewed Moses after the game, the tone of his question about the obstruction ruling, and the smugness of Moses' reply, would give cause to query the deliberateness of his move, however, the result is what it is.

To your query re Cowboys performance, the players have a lot of time for Todd Payten and admit (on TV) to needing a better, more cohesive performance from themselves. Like other clubs, there are some new players that are starting to show real talent as their confidence grows - that is encouraging for the future.

I have wondered, since Tom Dearden's magnificent performance in SoO game 3, if players may have relied too much on him to get a win - I don't know, just idle speculation.

Other than that Steel, time will tell I guess!!
Cheers,
Mary

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