Round three selections

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Friday night – Brookvale Oval

The Bulldogs were convincing winners over the Eels in round two, and the Eels were convincing winners over the Sea Eagles in round one. All things being equal the Bulldogs should win this in a canter. Unfortunately, the maths never quite adds up in the NRL - not the way I try to calculate it anyway (I always forget to carry the Foran). No Foran again this weekend with Feleti Mateo pulling on the '6' jersey. This move does weaken the Sea Eagles pack and the Bulldogs are one opponent you don't want to face with a weakened pack. When I match these forwards against each other I have the Bulldogs a long way in front, and when I look at the interchange for these sides the gap widens further. But as I said earlier, the maths never quite adds up so this could go either way on the night. Take note I am 0 from 4 in games involving these sides in season 2015, and my Friday night form is much the same.

Verdict – Bulldogs by 4

Result - Bulldogs 16 defeated Sea Eagles 12

Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys – Friday night – Suncorp Stadium

The Broncos scored two of the nuffiest tries I've ever seen in their dour victory over the Sharks - but a try is a try whether it's nuffy or not, and it was two more than their opponent. The Cowboys narrow loss to the Knights was particularly disappointing for The Thinker - who was set to have drinks with the team after the match...if they won. The Cowboys were muscled out of that game, but whether the Broncos can do what the Knights did is another matter. The Cowboys pack will be under clear instructions - lay a platform and protect your most valuable resource. The Broncos are nowhere near as big as the Knights, and the Cowboys forwards will step up for the big Queensland derby (no doubt Ben Hannant will put his hand up for a big game too). Both teams look to be struggling in attack to my eye - perhaps this is the game where things start to click but I'm expecting a close low-scoring encounter. Assuming he can open his eyes a Jonathan Thurston conversion will prove the difference.

Verdict – Cowboys by 2

Result - Broncos 44 defeated Cowboys 22

New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels – Saturday afternoon – Mt Smart Stadium

These are the sort of games the Warriors used to take to Eden Park, but they must be sick of losing. Shaun Johnson is named and let's assume he's playing until we hear otherwise - clearly the equation changes considerably if he's a late withdrawal. The Eels are without Beau Champion and Semi Radradra, and changes to your backline aren't ideal when you're facing the Warriors - a team that are capable of just about anything on their day. Chris Sandow is being monitored, but has been named. More often than not the Warriors turn up to play for their first game of the season at Mt Smart, and tipping them at home is the logical way to go.

Verdict – Warriors by 10

Result - Warriors 29 defeated Eels 16

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Saturday afternoon – GIO Stadium

In recent seasons the Dragons have struggled to cross the stripe, and the same issue seems to be dogging their 2015 campaign also. Winning games without scoring points is difficult and, I suspect, mathematically impossible. Beyond that, they are on a short turnaround from Monday night and they have to travel to Canberra and beat a team they almost never beat. There are no good things in the NRL (and everytime I suggest there is I get it wrong), but I can't think of any other way to describe this fixture.

Verdict – Raiders by 8

Result - Dragons 22 defeated Raiders 20

Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday night – AAMI Park

If the Sharks can't score a try at home against the Broncos I have to doubt them against the miserly defence of the Storm in Melbourne. Storm coach Craig Bellamy was particularly scathing last weekend (even though I think they were a little unlucky) and the Sharks are set to pay the price. Those keen for a bet could do a lot worse than back the Sharks to score 6 points or less on Saturday night - zero is a likely proposition.

Verdict – Storm by 16

Result - Storm 36 defeated Sharks 18

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – ANZ Stadium

Someone loses their first game of the season on Sunday afternoon, and when I say someone I can probably say the Tigers. A one point win over an understrength Titans and a big win over the Dragons, convincing as it was, is an entirely different level to the defending premiers. The Bunnies have scored 70 points from two outings thus far and they'll be adding another 40 or so this weekend. Regardless, I'm expecting a very entertaining game and a very busy scoreboard attendant.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 20

Result - Rabbitohs 20 defeated Tigers 6

Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday night – Robina Stadium

Greg Bird, Dave Taylor and Beau Falloon are back for the Titans, despite the fact that legal proceedings hang over their heads. At full time it might be worth having a chat to Chris Houston who could potentially offer some valuable advice. There was a lot to like about the performance of the Knights last weekend - even if I didn't enjoy it at the time. They were tough, they defended well and they found the try-line when the opportunities presented. Get those three things right and you will win 95% of football games. I think they'll win again. Bird and Taylor are likely to try too hard on the weekend - hoping to make up for lost time. When they do that they tend to play worse rather than better.

Verdict – Knights by 4

Result - Knights 20 defeated Titans 18

Sydney Roosters vs Penrith Panthers – Monday night – Allianz Stadium

And the last game of the round is the best game of the round. Both teams were impressive last weekend. Granted the Roosters didn't win, but it's looking like competing with the Rabbitohs will be the high water mark in season 2015. The Panthers couldn't have done much more than they did in their demolition of the Titans, but that form has to have some sort of question mark over it. Jamie Soward is out for the Panthers but his replacement (Isaac John) is handy and the return of Josh Mansour is a huge include. This will be close, but I'm sticken with the chickens and their settled pairing in the halves.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

Result - Roosters 20 defeated Panthers 12

Wally Lewis - round three selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

  • Sea Eagles vs BULLDOGS
  • BRONCOS vs Cowboys
  • WARRIORS vs Eels
  • RAIDERS vs Dragons
  • STORM vs Sharks
  • RABBITOHS vs Tigers
  • Titans vs KNIGHTS
  • ROOSTERS vs Panthers

Comments

Coach Potato's picture

Violence against women, NRL players say let's make a joke of it

a's picture

Yes never hurt women

christine 's picture

Robbie was doing a bit of whinging .

christine 's picture

I know what your saying about inglis but that doesn't change the fact keith Galloway bitch slapped tim grant .

a's picture

Kim Galloway has to be a bitch if he did this

Chi Spurga's picture

just sent Keithy my mothers number ......................... She'll teach him how to slap. And give Inglis one for telling the teacher.

a's picture

And she will say stop being a bitch

christine 's picture

titans are after Johnston as well as three other clubs but we need him at souths so they better not let him go to another club he's a great player

a's picture

Who are the other 2 clubs

Coach Potato's picture

Geez. When is this code going to be Shayne Hayne, and corruption free?

Coach Potato's picture

Sorry that links not working. Google : State of Origin eligibility and there's a PDF there

christine 's picture

I might live in nsw but I always go for qld in origin & it really pisses people off but I don't really care what other people think.

christine 's picture

a to answer your earlier ? about Johnston the article is in todays telegraph but it doesn't say who the other clubs are it just says titans as well as three other clubs are wanting to sign him because Johnston wants to be a permanent fullback but he can't at souths with inglis there.

Coach Potato's picture

No sour grapes. Roosters a bit too good, as they were also probably the better team last September, but here is what I think about video referral. Just like in the English Super League, just like the video referral you see in the World Cup Cricket - the NRL video ref should also be miked up, and you then clearly know exactly what they are looking at and if they are satisfied or not. If the NRL can't be transparent like other sports with video review, then it very much gives the impression they are hiding something. Until such time that they implement this change, my feeling is they are.

Baggy_Gee's picture

I call knock on, if it was in general play that type of ball control would be called accurately. We need to reward ball control and punish sloppy handling.

Steel Panther's picture

Contentious calls in several games this weekend as the refs seem to be struggling both on and off the field. I like the video ref concept as it's the games way of getting it right but how many times are we hearing the commentators (many who are ex players both past and recent) making a "try or no try" call only to have the opposite decision delivered by the video ref? Last night was a classic example with the Dallin Watene-Zelezniak "no try" decision. Was that a knock on leading up to Dane Gagai's try for Newcastle versus the Titans? Was that a double movement by Blake Austin for Canberra or did momentum carry him over? One thing I thought was good was the interview with Tony Archer covering off the dubious calls. This was on the NRL website after last week's round and I hope it will be a regular feature as we continue to scratch our heads. Just my thoughts.....

a's picture

I think those NRL games were scripted just like stupid WWE games

Baggy_Gee's picture

That is the problem, they spent several minutes reviewing 2 seconds of footage for the Gagai try and if you disect it in minute detail, the evidence from the ball is obvious. The issue is that while both teams get to sit down for that time and have a breather, the team who gets the try, always comes back and plays better for the rest. The video ref needs to be allowed to make the call, but has 2 minutes to try and preserve the flow of the game. For example the Tigers score against the Rabbits after the Rabbits have had 6 sets on the Tigers line, a seven minute break and the try against the flow will basically restart the game for the Tigers, five minutes less and the Rabbits, still have the advantage of their good work controlling the game

Coach Potato's picture

I agree Baggy that ball control has become very lenient, but I need to say that under the current established consensus that the NRL has laid down, that try equalled ball control - and like it or hate it, it should have been awarded. Games and teams shouldnt be singled out for drastically different rule interpretations. Consider what control does a player have over a rolling ball on the ground that he brushes a pinky across? Not very much, but enough.

christine 's picture

Thinker's Little Helper you should have enough scotch to last you for a while now after this week but you deserve every drop of it with what we put you though each week , keep up the good work more credit to you for it .

a's picture

I hope the ref are better for next round

christine 's picture

a as much as you don't want to I think you are better off taking the same as wally & trying to jag what he doesn't get each week & move up slowly that way ok .

a's picture

Okay than

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