Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – ANZ Stadium

If the Dragons are going to win the 2011 premiership they have to defy recent history on two fronts. No side has won from outside the top four since 1995, and no side has won back-to-back titles since 1993. What they do have going for them is a return to something resembling form, and plenty of finals experience to draw on. These sides met in the finals in 2010, with the Dragons claiming a one-point victory in what was a tremendous game. They also met just last month with the Tigers claiming bragging rights with a two-point victory. It's worth noting that the Tigers victory last month was played at a neutral venue. Chris Lawrence has been named in the centres for the Tigers and if he plays they win. His addition to the Tigers backline adds yet another dimension to the Tigers attack and gives their playmakers a dizzying array of options when they get close to the tryline. The Dragons have built their success on defence and they won't relent easily, but I think the Tigers can outpoint them in what should be a thrilling and tight affair.

Verdict – Tigers by 4

Result - Tigers 21 defeated Dragons 12

Brisbane Broncos vs New Zealand Warriors – Saturday night – Suncorp Stadium

I've liked the Broncos all year and I still do. I'd tip them on Saturday night to beat every other side in the top eight, except the Warriors. Their last clash was one of the games of the season, and a Peter Wallace field goal proved the difference at full-time. If both sides were at full-strength I'd stick with the Broncos, but losing both Thaiday and Hoffman at this time of the year is a massive blow. Ben Teo will step into the Thaiday role and Gerard Beale moves to fullback for Hoffman. Both are fine players in their own right but they have big shoes to fill, and moving them weakens the Broncos in other areas.  The game of the weekend - Yow Yeh versus Vatuvei is worth the price of admission alone.

Verdict – Warriors by 4

Result - Broncos 40 defeated Warriors 10

Manly Sea Eagles vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Sydney Football Stadium

These sides have met twice already this season. The Cowboys just held on in their home game and the Sea Eagles were comfortable 20 point victors at Brookvale - although it's important to note that Thurston did not play in that second game. It's not all puppy dogs and candy canes on the northern beaches at the moment. The Sea Eagles financial woes have become apparent in recent weeks and their long-time media manager Peter Peters was sacked by the Manly board just days ago. He was a popular figure with the team and his departure would have displeased them considerably. Some significant players return for the Sea Eagles for this game (Foran, Brett Stewart, Hopoate) but I have one of those crazy irrational hunches that the Cowboys season isn't over just yet. If this game was at Brookvale I couldn't go past the Sea Eagles but the 'neutral' venue gives the Cowboys a hope. Crazy.

Verdict – Cowboys by 4

Result - Sea Eagles 42 defeated Cowboys 8

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights – Sunday afternoon – AAMI Park

So far this season the Knights have played other sides in the top eight on 12 occasions. They lost ten of them. One of those losses was to this side at this venue, and the Storm won that game by 30 points. The Storm haven't scored more than eight points in a game since their round 23 clash with the Titans, but this could be the game where they remind everyone (and themselves) why they won the Minor Premiership this season. Tight in the first half. Ugly in the second half.

Verdict – Storm by 18

Result - Storm 18 defeated Knights 8

Wally Lewis - finals week one selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night or early Friday morning.

• Tigers vs DRAGONS
• BRONCOS vs Warriors
• SEA EAGLES vs Cowboys
• STORM vs Knights