South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights – Friday night – Allianz Stadium

This will be the third time these sides meet in 2026. In round 9 at Newcastle the Knights won 42-38, and in round 19 in Sydney the Rabbitohs won 26-24. Close contests on both occasions, and I see no reason why this will be much different. Home ground advantage can play a big role here, although I expect no shortage of Knights fans will make the trip south for the game. That said, the Knights have lost their last four games in Sydney, so not a happy hunting ground at all. And some pretty big changes to the line-ups since these two faced off. In round 19, the Knights line-up included Brown, Lucas and Mooney. The Bunnies line-up didn't include Walker, Mitchell and Johnston. And the Bunnies still won. We all know how dangerous that trio of bunnies can be on the left edge. Mitchell will continue to improve with match fitness, but we saw some glimpses of what he brings last week. Of the teams outside the top four, the Bunnies are the one side that could, potentially, go on a run. If crusty old Wayne and these Bunnies can go all the way, with Arrow sitting on the sidelines...the stuff of fairytales.

Verdict - Rabbitohs by 4

New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins – Saturday afternoon – Go Media Stadium

As per the Friday night fixture, we've already had two close games between these sides this season. In round 8 the Warriors won 20-18 in Wellington. In round 17 the Dolphins won 26-24 in Brisbane. We're in Auckland for this at the Wahs spiritual home and there won't be a lot of room for Phins fans in the stadium. It's not hyperbole to suggest that a nation has gotten behind the Warriors this season - even an Phin-head like me appreciates what that means for the sport and the NRL. No Watene-Zelezniak for the home side, but they'll have some big units lining up on Saturday that weren't there in round 17 - Fisher-Harris, Ford, Halasima. The Dolphins were without Gilbert on that occasion and are basically naming their best seventeen. That's a luxury heading into the finals few teams are afforded. If this game were in Brisbane I'd be switching my tip, but that big Warriors pack, bolstered by a home crowd will be hard to stop. Te Maire Martin had some tremendous touches last week, and if he gets room to show his wares they can get that all important week off. The weather forecast for Auckland looks pretty good (for Auckland) and it won't suprise me if the scoreboard attendant is kept very busy.

Verdict - Warriors by 4

Cronulla Sharks vs North Queensland Cowboys – Saturday night – Allianz Stadium

I'll start with something positive - congratulations to the Sharks and the Cowboys for making the finals in 2026. A particularly decent effort for the Cowboys, given there were no shortage of pundits that pencilled them in for wooden spoon honours at the start of the season. Now for the slightly more cynical commentary - of the final eight, these are the two sides in the poorest form. The Sharks have won just one of their last five, a not entirely convincing win over the team that finished second last. Slightly better for the Cowboys with two wins from their last five. But, they conceded 82 in one of those losses, and last week conceded 50 to a team outside the top eight. Even more incredibly, both those losses were at home. There's an unwritten rule (and it still holds true) that if a side concedes 50 points in a game during the season you can rule them out of premiership contention. The Cowboys did that twice, at home, and recently. In a peculiar twist on this narrative, the most points the Sharks have conceded all season was to the Cowboys (46 in round 8). Even then, the Cowboys conceded 34. Defence continues to be a persistent issue, and it feels like the only way they can win this is by scoring a lot of tries. A whole lot of tries, and that's a hard way to win in September. They can do it, because I think the Sharks are average at best, but an average Sharks might still be enough.

Verdict - Sharks by 7

Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters – Sunday afternoon – CommBank Stadium

About 80% of the Roosters salary cap is back on Sunday, and I better list them because it's a pretty important game - Butcher, Cherry-Evans, Collins, Crichton, Nawaqanitawase, Radley, Robson, Savala, Smith, Tedesco, Toia, Whyte and Wong. If anyone can be simultaneously Whyte and Wong it's the Roosters.  So, a fair list that, but it needs to be. For whatever reason, the Panthers are the team that seem to beat them almost every time. The Chooks have lost 12 of their last 14 against the Panthers, and they haven't beaten the Panthers in a finals game in 16 years. I say all that with good reason - the logical tip here is the Panthers, and I don't want to be bend anyone's arm too hard. But...I'm taking recent history over overall history, and in round 24 these sides met at this ground and the Chooks found a way (12-6). It was one of the best games all season, and had finals football stamped all over it. The Roosters know they can beat the Panthers, because they did beat the Panthers. Some have criticised the Chooks decision to rest so many last round, but it could prove a master stroke. Robinson didn't want his side playing finals football (against their biggest foe) a week early. They're fresh. They're ready. The Panthers are still the benchmark, but in their last two games against top eight teams they lost. Even against the Cowboys in round 17, they lost. They're not wobbly, but they're not indestructable. The Chooks are the biggest outsider across all four finals games this weekend but look at me, tipping like a fox. A stupid fox. Cherry Evans with a field goal when it matters most. Remember where you heard it first if I'm actually right for a change.

Verdict - Roosters by 1

Wally Lewis - week one finals selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

• RABBITOHS (6th) vs Knights (7th)
• WARRIORS (2nd) vs Dolphins (3rd)
• SHARKS (5th) vs Cowboys (8th)
• PANTHERS (1st) vs Roosters (4th)