Round eighteen selections

Gold Coast Titans vs Parramatta Eels – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Given circumstances in NSW at the minute, it's entirely possible that the Titans can play out the rest of the season on the Gold Coast. Sitting tenth on the ladder, home ground advantage could be enough to see them claim a place in the top eight. Winning this would help, but winning this is hard. Moeaki Fotuaika, Tino Fa'asumaleaui and AJ Brimson have been named for the Titans but would have to back up from Wednesday night. David Fifita does get to play, as his one match suspension gets served at Origin level. The Eels have also named their Origin duo (Moses and Paulo), and Reed Mahoney returns in the all-important dummy-half role. The Titans impressed against the Raiders when they last played and I give them an honest chance here. What concerns me is their record this season against the better sides - seven times they've played top eight teams and they've lost them all. 

Verdict – Eels by 8

Result – Eels 26 defeated Titans 8

Manly Sea Eagles vs St George Illawarra Dragons – Friday night – Cbus Super Stadium

Both clubs have named their Origin players here, but with a two day turnaround you need to keep your eyes out for team changes. The inclusion or exclusion of any of those four could have a profound impact on the result, so I'm guessing a little bit here. The NSW players are more likely to be celebrating (within reason) after Wednesday night, so that could make the back-up a little harder for Trbojevic and Sims. To make this even more complicated the Dragons are taking to the field for the first time after barbecue-gate. Matt Dufty, Tyrell Fuimaono and Kaide Ellis won't play this week, and depending on who you ask the Dragons are a splintered group in tathers or a united force ready to prove a point. I try to be an optimist when I can, but I have my doubts about the Dragons. I'm more optimistic about Manly, even after a disappointing effort last start. If Turbo plays they win, and if he doesn't play they might scrape home anyway.

Verdict – Sea Eagles by 2

Result – Sea Eagles 32 defeated Dragons 18

Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks – Saturday afternoon – Cbus Super Stadium

Jack Wighton and Josh Papalii have been named for the Raiders, although Matt Frawley did a good job for Canberra last weekend. If Wighton doesn't play, Frawley won't let them down. Papalii played for plenty of minutes on Wednesday night, so his withdrawal wouldn't surprise me. The Sharks have now won five of their last six - they're a boring, honest outfit that get the job done. Interim coach Josh Hannay probably deserves a wrap. They're never going to put up a score against anyone but they are winning contested football games. In round two the Raiders prevailed in a low scoring grind (12-10). This is likely to be another one of those, but the Sharks have improved since then and the Raiders haven't. The Canberra win over Manly was a good sign, but I'll need to see consistent performances like that before they have me believing again.

Verdict – Sharks by 2

​​​​​​​Result – Raiders 34 defeated Sharks 18

North Queensland Cowboys vs Sydney Roosters – Saturday night – Queensland Country Bank Stadium

The Cowboys are one of four teams that get a home ground advantage for the next month (and probably the rest of the season). That's great news for the Cowboys, a team that have won five of their last six at home, with their only loss a narrow defeat to the Cronulla Sharks. All five Origin players are still in the line-ups, but at the very least we can scratch Valentine Holmes for the Cowboys. Luckily for the Cowboys it doesn't appear to be season-ending. The Chooks grafted out a win over the last-placed Bulldogs last weekend, but it wasn't impressive. They'll be better with Tedesco at the back...assuming he plays of course. The Cowboys left edge defence were found wanting a few times last start. I'm sure the Cowboys have focused on tightening that up, but the Chooks will be sure to test them on that edge. Exposing that weakness might be enough to get the Roosters the win, but this could be closer than most predict.

Verdict – Roosters by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Roosters 34 defeated Cowboys 18

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights – Saturday night – AAMI Park

The Storm have made a big deal (and rightly so) about their return to AAMI Park on Saturday night - let's hope Victoria isn't in another lockdown by then. Earlier this season they played five games at home and won them all, and they averaged more than 33 points per game in attack while conceded (on average) less than 13 points per game in defence. That's an ominous record, but they've actually improved since then. They've played their last 8 games away from home and won them all. During that period they averaged nearly 43 points per game in attack and conceded an average of less than 11 points per game in defence. Freaks the lot of them. Papenhuyzen and Grant are still unavailable, and the Storm have five players backing up from Origin, but you simply can't tip against them, can you?

Verdict – Storm by 14

​​​​​​​Result – Storm 48 defeated Knights 4

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

The Warriors thought they were finally heading home but it's not to be. Surely the rest of the NRL clubs can agree to give them a run of home games next season (pandemic permitting). Following the loss to the Sharks, it's looking much less likely that the Warriors will make the top eight this season. They've played top eight teams seven times this season, and lost them all. Their next two games look tough, and if they lose those there's a congested field of top eight contenders in front of them. The Panthers are not unbeatable at the minute - both playmakers are yet to return and another four key players need to back up from Wednesday night. Still, with an Origin series done and dusted the Panthers can re-focus on a premiership tilt.

Verdict – Panthers by 8

​​​​​​​Result – Panthers 30 defeated Warriors 16

Brisbane Broncos vs Wests Tigers – Sunday afternoon – Suncorp Stadium

It looks quite likely that the Broncos can spend the rest of the season in Queensland. That advantage, and a reasonably favourable run home, should see them avoid back to back wooden spoons. By Broncos standards that's a long way away from a successful season, but if they can pick up a few wins here and there it will give them some sort of grounding for the years ahead. As for the Tigers, there's some talk that the coach is on notice to perform, but I've been hearing that talk for a while. Bringing Tim Sheens back into the fold might help as he has a wealth of experience and footballers almost universally like playing with him. Maguire is shuffling a few of his chess pieces around the board again for this game (Doueihi into the halves, Mbye onto the bench) but he hasn't found a winning combination yet. The Broncos should get a decent crowd to this fixture. They've only won 3 from 8 at home this season, but note that their fives losses at home were against the teams running 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th. This is easier.

Verdict – Broncos by 4

​​​​​​​Result – Tigers 42 defeated Broncos 24

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Canterbury Bulldogs – Sunday night – Cbus Super Stadium

In round four the Bunnies beat the Bulldogs 38-0. In the last three weeks, the Bunnies have scored 130 points and conceded 40, while the Bulldogs have scored 26 points and conceded 124. The numbers don't lie.

Verdict – Rabbitohs by 22

​​​​​​​Result – Rabbitohs 32 defeated Bulldogs 24

Wally Lewis - round eighteen selections (in bold)

Note: tips from Wally will be published on Wednesday night or Thursday morning

  • Titans vs EELS
  • SEA EAGLES vs Dragons
  • Raiders vs SHARKS
  • Cowboys vs ROOSTERS
  • STORM vs Knights
  • Warriors vs PANTHERS
  • BRONCOS vs Tigers
  • RABBITOHS vs Bulldogs

Comments

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Hey everyone, my tips for this week are:

Eels by 10
Dragons by 2
Sharks by 4
Roosters by 8
Storm by 20
Panthers by 12
Broncos by 6
Rabbitohs by 26

Awesome! Good luck with everyone's team for this week and with everyone's tips for this week. I would like to thank Queensland for helping the game moving forward during these difficult times for NSW and also not to mention Victoria... hopefully. Cheers!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The Thinker's picture

The Storm and the Knights may want to get out of Melbourne while they still can. The Sunshine Coast is nicer in July anyway.

Baggy_Gee's picture

Has anyone heard about the games at CBUS tomorrow night, has it been made into a double header for a single ticket price? Won't be many fans of either team if they clear us out after the BOYS play.

The Thinker's picture

I think it would be Baggy

Its a double header at Suncorp - buy one ticket and get two games....its like mini magic rounds for the rest of the year

 

Baggy_Gee's picture

That sounds like heaven for the League lover. Pity NSW miss out though.

newbie from perth's picture

"Dia duit gach duine" i dteanga ní mo theanga féin,

Split round from last week means no in-depth analysis this week due to half the sides having that extra week off and Newbie not comfortable trying to compare apples with apples as it were. Some may be singing “hallelujah” 🙏.

Everyone already knows but we’re off to sunny Qld for at least the next 4 weeks, possibly longer. I see the Storm’s now had to head up there too. This weekend we have five at Cbus, two at Suncorp and one at Townsville. Get used to this people … this COVID* thing ain’t goin’ away any time soon 😢. Remember being told “two weeks to flatten the curve”? 🤧 That was 18 months ago! Sorry, enough of the gloom, let’s do this thing …

Titans vs. Eels 40-60 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Eels
Bookies Favourite = Eels

Verdict: Both nice and fresh with the extra break. Might play safe and tip the Eels.

Manly vs. Dragons 80-20 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Manly
Bookies Favourite = Manly

Verdict: Manly will (should) bounce back after last week, even if Turbo doesn’t play. Just wondering if the brotherly “bond” will still be there amongst the Dragons players after “that debacle”. Yeah, Manly for me.

Raiders vs. Sharks 40-60 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Sharks
Bookies Favourite = Sharks

Verdict: Wasn’t all that impressed with the Sharks last week to be honest. I was with the Raiders however and that’s why I’m back on the Green Machine. Raiders for me.

Cowboys vs. Roosters 35-65 @ Townsville
Ladder Position = Roosters
Bookies Favourite = Roosters

Verdict: What can I say? The Roosters weren’t too flash last week but still. Roosters. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔

Storm vs. Knights 80-20 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm

Verdict: The Storm are humming along very nicely and the extra week off will freshen them up beautifully. Storm obviously.

Warriors vs. Panthers 25-75 @ Suncorp
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers

Verdict: Poor ol’ Warriors will have their work cut out for them. I’m very interested to see how the Panthers go without both Cleary and Luai. Even so, the Panthers should win.

Broncos vs. Tigers 55-45 @ Suncorp
Ladder Position = Tigers
Bookies Favourite = Broncos

Verdict: Believe it or not I’m thinking this could go either way. Broncos did well against the Sharks and have had the extra week off. Not often this year I’ve done this but I’m tipping the Broncos this week.

Rabbitohs vs. Bulldogs 85-15 @ Cbus
Ladder Position = Rabbitohs
Bookies Favourite = Rabbitohs

Verdict: Even though the Bulldogs did well last week against the Roosters, this is a no-brainer. Rabbitohs for me.

Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”. Not sure if I’ve put this up before but you seldom go wrong listening to Mr. Nelson…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EdxM72EZ94

OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Until next week. Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔

JKBubble's picture

Hey Thinker
Not a lot of hope as a dragons fan this year, however i was interested in your (and everyone else's) thoughts on the following signings:

-Francis Molo (haven't watched a lot of him, but went well in SOO 3)
-George Burgess (is he past his used by date)
-Jaydn Su'A (couldn't get selected at Rabbits)
-...and now potentially - Dale Finucane.
Seems like they are going to field a team of forwards next year!
Good buys?

The Thinker's picture

@JKBubble

There's a reason clubs are clambering to get Finucane - he's exactly the sort of player you want at your club - on and off the field.

The other three are all proper footballers too...it's great to see Molo doing well - he could have easily given the game away after a truly sad incident a few years ago.

I assume the Dragons have some great kids coming through their system in the that can play 1,6, or 7. 

Scotty H's picture

My Tips

Parra
Manly
raiders
Roosters
storm
Panthers
Broncos
Rabbitohs

Happy tipping

Mary S's picture

Hi Baggy, 'a', NuL1F3, MGM & The Butcher- where are your tips??????

Hi Boss,
Could you put them all down for Eels for this match (6pm start today guys) and let the get back to you with the rest???
Cheers,
Mary

Mary S's picture

Majordad & ScottySeahawk the same please Boss - if that's doable?

I guess people forgot about the earlier game tonight.

Cheers,
Mary

NuL1F3's picture

Ah I forgot to put in my tips!!

Titans (I know, too late)
Sea Eagles
Raiders
Roosters
Storm
Panthers
Broncos
Rabbitohs

NuL1F3's picture

Looks like Eels are schooling Titans anyway so no harm no foul ;P

NuL1F3's picture

Just went through the comments, thank you heaps Mary S for putting in a tip for us late tipsters :) We are lucky to have someone looking out for us!

I still think I should get a 0 as I tipped Titans but I guess that will be up to the boss :))

ScottySeahawk's picture

Thanks Mary - bloody forgot about that earlier game. I even watched a bit of it!!

Picks were going to be (no worries if they're not counted, Thinker):
Eels, Dragons, Roosters, Raiders, Storm, Panthers, Broncos, Rabbitohs.

MGM's picture

Mary , thanks for looking out for us.
I think it's too late though ... I got involved with a leaking fish tank myself and messed up the filter system in the process !
I did have both the winners tonight but that's done and dusted.
Just for the record my others were :
Raiders , Roosters , Storm , Warriors , Tigers , Rabbitohs .
As you can see , I saved my long-shots for Sunday !
(although many of you seem to think the Raiders are the long-shot tomorrow)

Thinker, you let me off the hook last week so I don't expect any leniency this time.

Good luck everyone .

Baggy_Gee's picture

Change in uni scheduled for the Wife wiped me out, made it to the game last night and it was great, pleasantly surprised about CBUS, not as good as Suncorp, but the viewing even up near the nose bleeds was good. 3 more weeks of double headers in S.E QLD is going to be a good time.

Mary S's picture

Hi Baggy,
Where are the rest of your tips?
Cheers,
Mary

Baggy_Gee's picture

I'm OK missing out. I'll get back on the horse next weekend and see if I can get a perfect round. Thank you for your follow up Mary.

Christine's picture

Sorry guys i didn't remember to put my tips in this week i was in an infusion for my ms my mistake i just have to cop it sweet i stuffed up no one to blame but me , ibam not on the ladder anyway so it doesn't really matter ...

Christine's picture

That said i am not on the tipping ladder anyway doesn't matter ...

The Thinker's picture

Greetings football fans

I have updated the NRL ladder and the tipping comp after round 18. Plenty of solid scoring but 8 of our tipsters got the lot - congrats to Walby, Lillychino, Stallion, Tough Bunny, Bulga, Islander, Tigerholic and The Voyeur. Three of those eight are in the top four for the tipping comp and are picking winners like rockstars at the minute.

If anyone notices anything with the tipping scores that needs attention just let me know.

I will have the round 19 tipping page published as soon as I can. Again, we have some tweaking to do with the tipping forms to get them up to date with the rescheduled venue information.

All the best

The Thinker

Mary S's picture

Congratulations to the 8 that got the 8 (correct) in R18!

Cheers to all,
Mary

MGM's picture

Thanks again to you Mary , and also to Thinker for including me this week.
Well done to the eight clean-sweeps ... that's no mean feat!
P.S.
No fishy casualties .. all survived!

The latest in NRL news