Melbourne Storm (1st) vs Sydney Roosters (3rd) – Friday night – AAMI Park
There's no obvious reason why the Roosters can't beat the Storm. On paper, they certainly have a line-up that's more than capable. On the field however, they just can't get it done. The Storm have already beaten them twice this season, and they beat them three times last season. They last met not so long ago in Round 20, where the Storm prevailed 24-8 at this venue. Importantly, that Storm team in Round 20 didn't include Munster, Asofa-Solomona or Coates, and the Round 20 Roosters included Sam Walker and Brandon Smith. It's fair to argue that the Storm team on Friday night is better, while the Roosters team is worse. To add to the challenge, the Chooks are backing up from a final just six days ago, while the Storm have been hanging out at home for 11. The Storm have been sitting pretty in Melbourne since the 6th of September, and the best coach in the business has had plenty of time to get ready for this. They'll go close to selling the joint out on Friday night, and but for a Swans fans that arrived early, it will be mostly purple. If you asked me who I would like to win, I'd tell you the Chooks, but you're here for a tip, and I'm tipping:
Verdict – Storm by 7
Penrith Panthers (2nd) vs Cronulla Sharks (4th) – Saturday night – Accor Stadium
I've used recent match-ups as a guide for the first game, so I better be consistent and do the same for the second. The Panthers and Sharks have played just the once this season, in Round 12 at Cronulla. Unfortunately for Cronulla, they lost 42-0 that night, so it will need to be quite the turnaround if they wish to pull off an upset this weekend. The only additions to the Sharks for this game are Trindall and Rudolf, which helps a little. But here's the issue - Nathan Cleary didn't play in Round 12, and they lost 42-0. Fans for both sides will need to travel to get to the game. Last week, Sharks fans made it clear they don't like to leave the Shire, and Accor Stadium is further away than Allianz. Some will make the trip, but you'd expect more Panthers fans at the ground. It reads like the Panthers are on track for an incredible fifth straight grand final appearance, and a potential four-peat. In decades from now, we'll realise how astonishing that is.
Verdict – Panthers by 22
Wally Lewis - week three finals selections (in bold)
Note: tips from Wally will be published on Thursday night
- STORM (1st) vd Roosters (3rd)
- PANTHERS (2nd) vs Sharks (4th)
Guest tips for this round
See these tips on one page
Comments
Submitted by The Thinker on
Greetings football fans
I have updated the tipping comp after week two of the finals.
If anyone notices any issues with the scoring just let me know.
The tipping form will be available for next weekend as soon as my awesome little helper lines up all the hamsters in the right wheels.
All the best
The Thinker
ps I'm in Wooli this week with the thinker crew. Trying to catch fish and what not. If I'm a bit slower than usual it's because I'm on 'Wooli time'
Submitted by Mary S on
Enjoy the fishing Thinker crew - hope you have good weather and catch a few!
Cheers,
Mary
Submitted by newbie from perth on
Hey Frens,
“4 teams enter … 2 teams leave.”
Woo-Hoo! Just over a week away from the Big Dance my peeps! Can you feel the excitement building? Let’s do this thing …
Storm vs. Roosters @ AAMI
Probability @ 70-30
Ladder Position = Storm
Bookies Favourite = Storm
The Storm have shown they are the best side in the competition this year and there’s not too many chinks in their game to be honest. They have a lot of attacking power and their defence is one of the best going around.
Another factor in the Storm’s favour is that they’ll be playing at home with the crowd behind them. When you think about all this, it suggests the Roosters may find it all a bit too much to overcome.
The Roosters are pretty potent when they put their minds to it and we saw that in last weekend’s win over Manly. Friday night however, is a completely different story given the rise in class their opposition brings to this match.
The Roosters’ recent form against the Storm (and Panthers for that matter) is nothing short of poor. They’ve managed just the one win from their last 11 meetings, not to mention no wins this year (I think) against the other three sides going around this weekend but as a wise man once said … “the longer you keep losing, the closer you get to winning.” All I can do is hope that’s true, and sooner rather than later.
Last week’s win should give the Roosters plenty of confidence heading into this game but it must be recognised that they’re behind the Storm when it comes to class. The Roosters also have players missing through injury and that may bring problems over the course of the game, especially against a Storm side that is noted for their tough defence.
I think we all know who will win this but … Roosters by 4. Begurk! 🐔 Begurk! 🐔
Panthers vs. Sharks @ Accor
Probability @ 75-25
Ladder Position = Panthers
Bookies Favourite = Panthers
The Panthers have been solid all year long. They simply outclassed the Roosters 2 weeks ago and were basically in “cruise mode” once they got to that very handy (unbeatable) lead. One thing you need to take note of here is that the Panthers are, quite simply, a very, very good side.
Their effort 2 weeks ago was clinical, professional and brimming with assured confidence. They’re not unbeatable (no-one is) but it would take a mighty effort to topple them here and it will be all that much harder if Cleary steps up his game yet again.
The Sharks had an excellent first half last week but their second half was a little worrying (outscored 18-2). It reminded me how similar it was to their second half effort against the Storm the week before. Repeat that trend Saturday night and they’re no chance. If they can play like the dour, gritty Sharks of years ago, they might pull off the upset but unsure they can change the game plan in a week.
The Sharks have lost 7 of the last 8 games against the Panthers and in the one game they did win, it was just by a single point. Food for thought I’d say. For the Sharks to win they need to lift right across the park and play the Panthers at their own game. Unfortunately I just can’t see it happening, but then again, never say never.
Bottom line is the Panthers might just replicate what they did to the Roosters and end up winning this without much fuss … Panthers by 10.
Let’s finish off with another “Song of the Week”…
This one is from when they were all together. For me personally, this one just makes me feel happy. It’s as simple as that really. To borrow (steal) an online comment about this song …
“Next time you find yourself needing a moment of respite or longing for a deeper connection, I urge you to take a walk, put on this song, and let it guide you on a journey of self-reflection and peace.”
https://youtu.be/_MIhbk__WlQ
OK kids, good luck with your tipping and may your team win by 40 points! Cheers 🐔 🐔 🐔
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
All the best Newbie - has been an interesting season from many fronts.
Saw The Enz of an Era many years ago at their final concert in Townsville.
Again - great muso's!
Cheers and keep well
BigPeteBx
Submitted by MGM on
Here we go !
3 minutes into the match and I score it :
Storm 0 , Roosters 0 , Grant Atkins 2.
Submitted by MGM on
2 minutes into the second half and the professional foul on J.Hughes doesn't get a sin bin just like V.Radleys hip drop on NAS didn't.
Grant Atkins better not get the Grand Final.
Submitted by BigPeteBx on
Evenin MGM - late as it is mate. I could picture how Collins would feel in an early similar incident last week like Manly's Koula, after a Radley forearm that didn't make reports of any description.
NAS is a rather tall structure and has difficulties on many occasions with his tackles. A lot depends if he is stooped lower where head contacts become a norm.
Cheers Champ, enjoy the weekend and keep well.
Big Pete.
Submitted by EsraStar on
These bloody refs and the bunker are getting more and more like the union refs. More about them than about the game. JMHO.
Submitted by MGM on
Chris Butler in the bunker tonight
No sin bin for a blatant trip from T.Rudolf On Yeo
No sin bin for Very late tackle from Talakai on Luai
Strips Penrith try when Talakai obviously commits to tackling a lead runner
and 30 seconds later rules a dangerous tackle against M.Kenny that wasn't and finally succeeds in his quest to give the Sharks a leg up 40 seconds later by ignoring Katoa putting the ball down on the touch-in-goal line.
I don't like the Panthers but it was nice to see them overcome the cheating coming from the bunker.
So there's another match official that BETTER NOT be involved in the GF.
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