State of Origin - Game one

Game preview

You all know I'm wrong...often. And you all know writing this preview brings me no joy, but here I go:

If Queensland can win this series (and to do so, they'll need to win this game), it will rank near their very best series victories. I say this with a heavy heart, and will cross my everything and hope that this list of Queenslanders will lift as many lists of Queenslanders have lifted before, and get the job done. It's not impossible, but they have a wall to climb, and its slippery and covered in barbed wire and has crocodiles sitting on the top of it. I'm envious of the current depth the NSW selectors have at their disposal. By weight of numbers they always have more options than Queensland, but I can quickly compile a list of NSW players who won't be playing on Wednesday that could comfortably handle the occasion - Tedesco, Trbojevic, Koroisau, Luai, Burton, May, Olakau'tau, Smith. I'm leaving people out that I wouldn't feel embarrased to include. A plethora of riches to choose from, and there's nothing wrong with the list they settled on. There's half a dozen players in their seventeen that could pick up a team and drag them to victory - I don't even need to name them because you know who they are. Their forwards, on paper at least, should have an edge over the Queensland pack. Their back three are all renowned metre-eaters and their gains early in tackle counts will make the job for the forward pack easier. Games aren't won on paper of course, but NSW appear to have an edge. I'm slightly worried about the QLD spine - Ponga has an injury cloud and has been battling away in a club side travelling poorly; the recent form of Cherry-Evans and Munster has been patchy; Grant is the best dummy half in the business but has recently returned from injury. The rest of the backline includes players out of position (Tabuai-Fidow, Holmes) and a debutant who can count his NRL experience on his hands up against opponents who will test his mettle. They can all lift and play out of their skin - we've seen it before and we'll see it again - but for me, looking at these line-ups on paper...it's not easy to see.

Verdict - NSW 28 defeated QLD 10

Predicted first try scorer - Zac Lomax

Predicted player of the match - Angus Crichton

Registered tipsters are welcome to participate in our State of Origin tipping competition again this year. You can find all the details here.

Game details

Date: Wednesday 28th May 2025

Time: 8.05pm kick-off

Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane

 

Team list - Queensland Maroons*

  1. Kalyn Ponga (Newcastle Knights)
  2. Xavier Coates (Melbourne Storm)
  3. Robert Toia (Sydney Roosters)
  4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Redcliffe Dolphins)
  5. Valentine Holmes (St George Ilawarra Dragons)
  6. Cameron Munster (Melbourne Storm)
  7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) (Manly Sea Eagles)
  8. Moeaki Fotuaika (Gold Coast Titans)
  9. Harry Grant (Melbourne Storm)
  10. Tino Fa'asumaleaui (Gold Coast Titans)
  11. Reuben Cotter (North Queensland Cowboys)
  12. Jeremiah Nanai (North Queensland Cowboys)
  13. Patrick Carrigan (Brisbane Broncos)
  14. Tom Deardon (North Queensland Cowboys)
  15. Lindsay Collins (Sydney Roosters)
  16. Beau Fermor (Gold Coast Titans)
  17. Trent Loiero (Melbourn Storm)

Team list - New South Wales Blues*

  1. Dylan Edwards (Penrith Panthers)
  2. Brian To'o (Penrith Panthers)
  3. Stephen Crichton (Canterbury Bulldogs)
  4. Latrell Mitchell (South Sydney Rabbitohs)
  5. Zac Lomax (Parramatta Eels)
  6. Mitchell Moses (Parramatta Eels)
  7. Nathan Cleary (Penrith Panthers)
  8. Mitchell Barnett (New Zealand Warriors)
  9. Reece Robson (North Queensland Cowboys)
  10. Payne Haas (Brisbane Broncos)
  11. Liam Martin (Penrith Panthers)
  12. Angus Crichton (Sydney Roosters)
  13. Isaah Yeo (c) (Penrith Panthers)
  14. Connor Watson (Sydney Roosters)
  15. Spencer Leniu (Sydney Roosters)
  16. Hudson Young (Canberra Raiders)
  17. Max King (Canterbury Bulldogs)

*Team lists are subject to change and will be updated as soon as possible.

Comments

The Thinker's picture

Greetings Origin fans

I think I've got all the team lists right for now. There will probably be some changes, and I'll update as quickly as I can.

All the best

The Thinker

Esra Star's picture

As a Queenslander i am a little worried. That NSW team looks very good.

The Thinker's picture

I think you're right. It's hard to see where QLD can find an edge, but I'm sure I'll go looking for it :-)

All the best

The Thinker

Dragons-fanboy's picture

My prediction for game 1

Qld 16 - Tries: X. Coates, Cam Munster and Hamiso
Conversions: Val Holmes 2/3

NSW 24 - Tries: L. Mitchell, Z.Lomax, R. Robson and B. To’o

Man of the Match - S. Crichton

First try scorer - X. Coates
Last try scorer - B. To’o

Half-time score - NSW 6-4

Cheers!!!!!

Dragons-fanboy's picture

Sorry forgot NSW conversions lol Nathan Cleary 4/4

The Tide Head's picture

Verdict - NSW 20 QLD 16
Predicted first try scorer - Latrell Mitchell
Predicted player of the match - Latrell Mitchell

The Thinker's picture

I was just taking a sneaky peek at tickets for Game one - $354 for a sideline seat.

Taylor Swift must be singing the national anthem this year.

rickstar4life's picture

Are we tipping on the Origin, or is this one just for fun? :D

Up QLD!!!!

The Thinker's picture

@rickstar4life

It's not part of the official tipping comp, but I will cobble together some sort of Origin comp for a separate prize.

More to come

The Thinker

RyzPaz's picture

I got Latrell scoring for NSW and Hammer for QLD. Either side by 1-12 ….. but pretty darn sure the boys in blue got this one 😉

The Thinker's picture

I'm hearing Stephen Crichton has pulled up lame at training with a quad injury. No idea how serious it is, but if he's ruled out Campbell Graham will take his place.

All the best

The Thinker

David.C-Manly1st.'s picture

Sad to say
N.S.W by 1-12 pts
Score= 24-12
First try scorer - Zac Lomax
Man of the Match - Dylan Edwards
Cheers
David.C

Go Queensland

EsraStar's picture

Not that it matters,mate,but you have Holmes still playing for the Cowboys.

The Thinker's picture

@EsraStar

Thanks for that - copied and pasted from last year and I missed that one.

All the best

The Thinker

Anonymous's picture

They've been down-playing Stephen Crichton's injury but I reckon he'll be a no show and I think, on recent form, Campbell Graham is far from the best choice that Daley could have made.
That said , you should Still be worried Esra ! ... HaHa !

EsraStar's picture

I think Crighton is fine and they are playing silly buggers. But,as usual,we will see.

MGM's picture

Woops!
I wasn't signed in.
Yes , that was me Esra Star .... I didn't realize we were rivals 'till I saw your comment above !

EsraStar's picture

Mate,i have firmed a bit on Qld today,but i still think the NSW side will win.Damn it!

The Thinker's picture

A great article by Nick Campton (possibly the best rugby league journo we have at the moment) on ABC news about the 1995 Queensland Origin side. Something to give us banana benders hope heading into tonight.

You can read it here.

JKBubble's picture

My prediction:
NSW - 16
QLD - 10
Tries by back 6 - 3 tries

EsraStar's picture

Why wasn't that a penalty try?

The Thinker's picture

A few stats at half time of note:

Metres gained - NSW 1036 to QLD 612

Missed tackles - NSW 9 to QLD 29

Kick return metres - NSW 101 to QLD 61

Penalties conceded - NSW 2 to QLD 6

Tough to win with figures like that. QLD doing well to still be in the contest.

 

MGM's picture

@ Esra
Penalty would have sufficed.
To'o was genuinely jumping up to catch the ball and Xavier Coates leapt into his open arms for goodness sake.
A professional foul is a pre-meditated or deliberate act ... it should not have even been a sin binning.
But the bunker wasn't game to keep it real and decided to appease the locals who were Already in great pain at that point.

Gummy Sharks's picture

Did we just see the beginning of the end for both Cherry-Evans and Munster?

The Thinker's picture

@Gummy

A fair question. As you can see in my preview I had concerns about the QLD spine. I thought Cherry-Evans started well and then went downhill. Doesn't help when your forwards are getting monstered of course. Grant was poor by his standards. Ponga tried to inject himself with little effect. Munster?

The problem with making changes for QLD is who do they bring in. Deardon picks himself in the halves with somebody, but who? Metcalf is from Coffs Harbour. Katoa plays for either Tonga or NSW. The next most likely is probably AJ Brimson. Not a lot of options - Slater might have to do something mad and move Ponga to the halves with Deardon, Hammer to fullback, Holmes to the centres, Taulagi, Cobbo or Arthars on the wing. I'm reluctant to keep Holmes, but he's the only goalkicker QLD has (especially if you drop DCE). Meanwhile, NSW has 5 goalkickers in their starting 13.

No easy answers right now.

All the best

The Thinker

EsraStar's picture

Cobbo can kick goals,mate. So can Munster.

The Thinker's picture

@EsraStar

You're right...they can.

I think Cobbo would be 4th or 5th choice goal-kicker in the Broncos rosters (behind Reynolds, Staggs, Walsh, Madden).

Munster would get the call up for the Storm if Papenhuyzen, Meaney or Wishart weren't on the field.

Doesn't mean they can't do it, but I wouldn't say either of them are better goalkickers than Cleary, Moses, Lomax, Mitchell or Crichton....and QLD needs a goalkicker who doesn't miss a lot. Scoring tries hasn't been easy of late (8 of the last 10 QLD tries in Origin have been against 12 players), and we'll need every point we can find.

Mind you, I saw Tino slot one from the corner before Game One...so how hard can it be :-)

All the best

The Thinker

The Thinker's picture

I found QLD another halfback - the bloke in Canberra goes okay.

Put me in coach...I'm ready to play...today

MGM's picture

While Cleary was missing conversion after conversion I was crying out for Lomax to take over. When Zac did step up near the end of the match I was thankful that we would at least convert one try, especially since it was halfway in from the sideline .... then he missed by a fair margin also.
So we're down to three , but they're "gooduns" and as good as Cleary and Lomax can be, they should go to 4th & 5th on the list.

The Thinker's picture

And I've just realised QLD can't pick AJ Brimson, because he's sworn his allegiance to England.

JKBubble's picture

Hey Thinker,
did anyone win your SOO price for game 1, or does the comp run over the whole series?

The Thinker's picture

@JKBubble

It's whoever is in front after the three games. You're well placed.

All the best

The Thinker

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